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Nightbird's Mining "Theory" Part II

The Nightbird

The Nightbird

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Revan The Nightbird Evenstar
Part I can be found here:
https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/showthread.php?t=46263

My theory is based on that "assumption" that mining claims are generated at the time of of bomb or probe drop, hence if you can't accept this "assumption" read no further and refrain from posting in this thread.

Part I claimed that claims are generated by a sinosudal function based on time, with a period, but I also hinted that was half the story. The other half will be revealed here for those who would like to uncover a little more of the mystery that is EU.

Ready? :)

The other half is the direction you face at the time of the bomb/probe drop. If you consistently drop while facing one direction, you will uncover the sinosudal function, which has a slightly variating period, but if you change direction you'll find that the timing gets thrown off immediately. Now, visualize the loot generating function as a cone that radiates out from the center of your radar and spins around, making a full revolution equal to the period of the the sinosudal function. The instant that you drop a bomb, and your vision is pointing within the limits of the looting generating cone, a claim is generated.

I still won't reveal how to find the period as that would take away the challenge but this is alot more information for those who'd to try their hand at cracking the minng system.

Enjoy :)

All you need is a pen and paper, as that's what I used.
 
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The Nightbird said:
Part I can be found here:
https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/showthread.php?t=46263

My theory is based on that "assumption" that mining claims are generated at the time of of bomb or probe drop, hence if you can't accept this "assumption" read no further and refrain from posting in this thread.

Part I claimed that claims are generated by a sinosudal function based on time, with a period, but I also hinted that was half the story. The other half will be revealed here for those who would like to uncover a little more of the mystery that is EU.

Ready? :)

The other half is the direction you face at the time of the bomb/probe drop. If you consistently drop while facing one direction, you will uncover the sinosudal function, which has a slightly variating period, but if you change direction you'll find that the timing gets thrown off immediately. Now, visualize the loot generating function as a cone that radiates out from the center of your radar and spins around, making a full revolution equal to the period of the the sinosudal function. The instant that you drop a bomb, and your vision is pointing within the limits of the looting generating cone, a claim is generated.

I still won't reveal how to find the period as that would take away the challenge but this is alot more information for those who'd to try their hand at cracking the minng system.

Enjoy :)
Click to expand...

Nightbird said:
All you need is a pen and paper, as that's what I used.
Click to expand...

Very true :)

I definitely agree with the direction part, as my notes show that I get more hits when running in specific direction.
 
I had something like that when started to play this game. But that was while i was hunting.. I got more loots one day when i killed/looted a mob while looking west for example. The other days it was when i looked east, too bad it didn't work anymore after a vu back then :(
 
Interesting post. I've been thinking along the same thing. Heck I've even gone to facing straight down to perhaps gain more depth.

I have yet to actually find anything facing any particular direction Ie faced weset nothign faced east strike. Course this doesn't mean much as it could just be random but I was wondering if facing might matter as well.

so then a question forms. when running and weaving all over the place are you screwing up the direction so you net nothing. Or will you find it no matter what from teh first time you set off that bomb or probe irregardless of later directions.
 
Well, the period is pretty short, measured in seconds, so hunting/mining while facing in one direction won't do much typically.
 
The Nightbird said:
Well, the period is pretty short, measured in seconds, so hunting/mining while facing in one direction won't do much typically.
Click to expand...

Well this and your other post are quit interesting.

Tends to give a little credence to some of my mining runs doing so well because I log in and do them at certain times of the day.

Though blacklisting is a bit mor interesting how does it explain hitting 3 4 and even 5 stirkes form teh same location in the short period of time.

If black listing is done then the chances woudl drop over and over agian till you get nothing coudl that much lucky really play in?
 
Midnght said:
Well this and your other post are quit interesting.

Tends to give a little credence to some of my mining runs doing so well because I log in and do them at certain times of the day.

Though blacklisting is a bit mor interesting how does it explain hitting 3 4 and even 5 stirkes form teh same location in the short period of time.

If black listing is done then the chances woudl drop over and over agian till you get nothing coudl that much lucky really play in?
Click to expand...

I'm not sure exactly how they do it but it's fairly obvious that if you stand in a spot and drop a bomb and hit nothing, you won't find anything if you dropped again until some amount of time have passed.

Also, if you drop a bomb and find something, you can drop again immediately in the same spot and in the times that you get a double/triple/quantuple claim, it's always further away than the previous claim so EU is somehow keeping track of where not to generate a claim.

Blacklisting was just a way of describing this behavior, they could do it completely differently for all I know (which is near nothing).
 
Sorry to drop your nice little theory...

But: the claims are in the ground! :eek:

Won't post the proof here, ofc! :laugh:

Only the size of the claims is determined by wasted bombs/probes so far, and by a time-based "Luck"-cycle, as globals always come in bulk...


And: If it really would work, you wouldn't post it here, because MA would nerf it in a second... right?
 
wizzszz said:
Sorry to drop your nice little theory...

But: the claims are in the ground! :eek:

Won't post the proof here, ofc! :laugh:

Only the size of the claims is determined by wasted bombs/probes so far, and by a time-based "Luck"-cycle, as globals always come in bulk...


And: If it really would work, you wouldn't post it here, because MA would nerf it in a second... right?
Click to expand...

Mining has been a bit boring since I've figured the system out so I want MA to change it so I can have some fun figuring it out again. As for "the claims are in the ground" part, if that were true, I wouldn't be able to write my name with claim rods wherever I want unless they spawned my name in the ground... which while flattering would be unlikely hehehe
 
Well, take me out and show me your name in claim rods... :eek:

Oh, and I pick the area, ok? :laugh: :laugh:

Will be available for the next 3 hours, so where do we meet?
 
wizzszz said:
Well, take me out and show me your name in claim rods... :eek:

Oh, and I pick the area, ok? :laugh: :laugh:

Will be available for the next 3 hours, so where do we meet?
Click to expand...

Nan, it's a real pain cuz I have no control over where in the 55 meter radius the claim pops up :/ I normally just carpet bomb and get lots of claims so if I left them all and then extracted some of them, I can write with the remaining claims but it's not something I consider fun to do lol.

I guess I'd rather have you disbelieve than go through the effort to prove it.
 
The Nightbird said:
Nan, it's a real pain cuz I have no control over where in the 55 meter radius the claim pops up :/ I normally just carpet bomb and get lots of claims so if I left them all and then extracted some of them, I can write with the remaining claims but it's not something I consider fun to do lol.

I guess I'd rather have you disbelieve than go through the effort to prove it.
Click to expand...

That's convenient. You'l be talking about spirals soon enough.
After reading this i made an effort to drop every single bomb of my run tonight facing in different directions, did no worse than usual, in fact did better than usual :)
 
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You don't really have to write your name in claims to proof it...

I've read over your theory, and most of the assumptions you make point in another direction:

The claims are generated by a certain pattern, geographical pattern, not time based! Thats why you loose your sync to the pattern when you change direction...

And to the blackmark list: How do you explain multiple claims found within finder range?

Keeping a blacklist in DB would be same effort as to spawn them and check this list on each drop for a find rather than a "No resource found"!

Imo, a blacklist would grow much larger on carpet bombing then a claim list could be!

Most things you've noticed are simply interpreted to support your theory!
 
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Shackleton said:
That's convient. You'l be talking about spirals soon enough.
After reading this i made an effort to drop every single bomb of my run tonight facing in different directions, did no worse than usual, in fact did better than usual :)
Click to expand...

without taking time into account, it's just random luck


as for the next post, probably :)

In fact, all theories try to explain observations by interpreting how the observations can be explained by the theory.
 
It's good that everyone is taking what I'm saying with a grain of salt but please do remember that I don't gain anything from deceiving you all... except to point and laugh at those who believe MUHAHAHA :p
 
My newbies two pecs worth...for what it is worth....:)
I tend to believe that I move (walking) in circle when droped bomb.
I have not had as much 'luck' in finding things if I just stand still after I drop the bomb. To the point that I generally end up walking backwards in a cirlce.... why, because I found a good consistant handfuls of claims that way, and now ended up in 'hesitant to do it another way' routine....was stuck in mind set at earlier point to mine near 'trees' juist because that is where I was having my first lot of good luck.... have gotten over the tree things (almost :ahh: )....
Double bombing has not worked for me at all.... but then my depth is still only at 130m-ish.

side note: have been using the ore resources map from Neverdie, and can say that for this newbie only 50% of Public locations have been giving me any good returns...

ps...pen paper is the main method I use too, in conjuction to large printed map with notes/dates/ores and qty's listed all over it.... so so much paper around me when I play...looks like some sort of war room...:laugh:
 
what about skills then?

i want to know what youre skills are in ore mining

in what way do you think skills matter in the theory?

and - if in any way - in what way does chipped skills do - better or worse - then playgained skills?

:bomb:
 
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The Nightbird said:
It's good that everyone is taking what I'm saying with a grain of salt but please do remember that I don't gain anything from deceiving you all... except to point and laugh at those who believe MUHAHAHA :p
Click to expand...

:vampire:

Well you are filling the loot pool with people trying to disprove you


I believe the part that says that loot is time dependent, and also that there are other variables; and in your own theory there is a practical problem because even it was true I doubt that you could drop the bombs in the exact moment that the theory would predict a nice loot
(Otherwise I'm sure that:
You wouldn't share it
You would own a couple LA and other "stuff")
 
MG Mighty said:
:vampire:

Well you are filling the loot pool with people trying to disprove you


I believe the part that says that loot is time dependent, and also that there are other variables; and in your own theory there is a practical problem because even it was true I doubt that you could drop the bombs in the exact moment that the theory would predict a nice loot
(Otherwise I'm sure that:
You wouldn't share it
You would own a couple LA and other "stuff")
Click to expand...

I can play up to a few hours a day and my theory doesn't say anything about how to get hofs and aths so there isn't *that* much peds to be made, though I do manage to make 2-3 hundred peds every 2-3 mining trips (max I can do in a day, and I play a few days a week). I assure you that any increases in the loot pool would not be due to people trying to disprove my theory as a theory will affect returns negatively ONLY if it is correct but was misapplied.
 
I can accutally disprove the theory that location has nothing to do with loot. CND never loots poors or less, I believe there are a few smalls but not many. So CND eather has a different loot server or location matters, also I find that location does matter on Calypso as well, if I drop in one location and get many claims I can come back and get good loot. Recently there was some type of change and location matters less for most areas, but it does matter. For example I once mined for a few hours on 3 ped (I found many poors nothing over small). Also days matter to, I have never had a claim over 20peds on a weekday, yet on weekends I have found a few claims that are 20ped+ (note I am new to this so I may be lucker on weekends). Also another thing, I have found 3 larges two were in the exact same place, the time frame was 2 weeks between claims. O yea and if you sit down, stand up run in a circle and then say HOORA and drop your bomb or probe, we all get a good laugh.
 
Outman said:
I can accutally disprove the theory that location has nothing to do with loot. CND never loots poors or less, I believe there are a few smalls but not many. So CND eather has a different loot server or location matters, also I find that location does matter on Calypso as well, if I drop in one location and get many claims I can come back and get good loot. Recently there was some type of change and location matters less for most areas, but it does matter. For example I once mined for a few hours on 3 ped (I found many poors nothing over small). Also days matter to, I have never had a claim over 20peds on a weekday, yet on weekends I have found a few claims that are 20ped+ (note I am new to this so I may be lucker on weekends). Also another thing, I have found 3 larges two were in the exact same place, the time frame was 2 weeks between claims. O yea and if you sit down, stand up run in a circle and then say HOORA and drop your bomb or probe, we all get a good laugh.
Click to expand...

You've fallen into the probability hole. If you want to confirm or disprove my theory, you've got to do it rigorously (using the scientific method). Any ad hoc method will utterly fail because this formula generates many many types of false patterns.

Also note that I never said anything about good or bad loot, i.e. claim size, just how to get claims. Your claim sizes will depend on how good the server is that you're on.
 
The Nightbird said:
I can play up to a few hours a day and my theory doesn't say anything about how to get hofs and aths so there isn't *that* much peds to be made, though I do manage to make 2-3 hundred peds every 2-3 mining trips (max I can do in a day, and I play a few days a week). I assure you that any increases in the loot pool would not be due to people trying to disprove my theory as a theory will affect returns negatively ONLY if it is correct but was misapplied.
Click to expand...

I can do the same and my only theory is statistics > luck ;) Its all about the ore markup, no fancy spirals work.
 
nvcK said:
I can do the same and my only theory is statistics > luck ;) Its all about the ore markup, no fancy spirals work.
Click to expand...

I do the same. I mine in high markup areas and use this theory to maximize tt return and they augment total returns.
 
Some people are definitely on the right track :D Keep it up and have fun mining!
 
AtamiKiangola said:
If you are right, then expect it to change in the next VU.
Click to expand...

remember, for EU to not qualify as gambling in the US, where I play from, 51% of the value of the outcome must not depend on luck hence it is possible that this is the skill component of the returns formula as devised by MA

same applies to crafting and hunting, MA must by law provide a skill component to the equation.

Otherwise, I welcome it.
 
One person PMed me with the correct period, CONGRATULATIONS.

It's one thing if only I came up with some random number, but when another comes up with the same by using independantly collected data, it adds just a little to my credibility ^^

This person starting working when I posted my first thread four months ago so it's not for the faint of heart :)
 
ehhehe i remember a guy telling me that if we hunt in same area, our soc should be friendly, cause our loot will be bether... Just B.s. and sry, this theory is total b.s. too, i dont know why u post such th ing, wqhen u know its wrong
 
djrodrigocpu said:
ehhehe i remember a guy telling me that if we hunt in same area, our soc should be friendly, cause our loot will be bether... Just B.s. and sry, this theory is total b.s. too, i dont know why u post such th ing, wqhen u know its wrong
Click to expand...

Thank you for sharing your opinion. It was deeply insightful and immensely thoughtful :)
 
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