How Entropia Works (IMHO)

[Xen]

"You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to JohnCapital again."

Sorry, I'll try to remember to try again later...

 

[Xen]

Can you provide a link or the actual written statement from MA regardin lukc cycle issue? I heard this as a theory, but never saw that in any kind of proven MA declared form. Other than that good post

Ok, here it is:

02 Feb 2006 Entropia Support:
Hi,
Withour revealing any details about the PE core dynamic, you need to be aware of that there is no such guarantee or fixed drop rate. As you move along and gain more experience, you will pass through different intervals of your development, meaning (and this is true) that you will have good times and times with less luck. However, to be on the safe side, we have approached the design team in this matter and the information we have received is that no changes have been done regarding the drop rate of the Limited BPs.
/Regards
Support

---

I guess this doesn't directly support the theory that there is a programmed, variable luck factor for each avatar, but I think it's a strong clue.

 

[JohnCapital]

Ok, here it is:

02 Feb 2006 Entropia Support:
Hi,
Withour revealing any details about the PE core dynamic, you need to be aware of that there is no such guarantee or fixed drop rate. As you move along and gain more experience, you will pass through different intervals of your development, meaning (and this is true) that you will have good times and times with less luck. However, to be on the safe side, we have approached the design team in this matter and the information we have received is that no changes have been done regarding the drop rate of the Limited BPs.
/Regards
Support

---

I guess this doesn't directly support the theory that there is a programmed, variable luck factor for each avatar, but I think it's a strong clue.

Thanks for that Xen. Could you please quote us the question you asked/problem you had, that is, if it's not too personal. It seems you had an issue with (L) BPs not dropping enough to your satisfaction.

EDIT:
Also, please note that I did admit that re: mining and crafting, skills (and professions) do play a part in terms of the success and what you get, if anything.

 

[Xen]

I would like to add another theory/point...

If the loot system works as per my theory, it would be very easy for MA to have a sort of "master loot control knob" for overall loot return. As more and more L items are in use (many with 10/10 stats), the level of economy for hunters has to have risen considerably. This means less cost. So the loot return level cannot have stayed the same as before the L revolution, and certainly not the same as the pre-Opalo days. Pre-opalo, a medium skilled hunter with a medium economy weapon could do ok, if the average hunter tries that now, on average his ped card will suffer considerably more than the "good old days". As the average hunter becomes more economical, MA simply "turns" the "master loot control knob" to compensate.

Meanwhile, ubers with uber weapons remain at the same economy, so, I think, are able to profit less (tt value) than previous days. Pham's posts indicate this. I'd be interested in the observations of other ubers with uber gear...

 

[Etopia]

Thanks for that Xen. Could you please quote us the question you asked/problem you had, that is, if it's not too personal. It seems you had an issue with (L) BPs not dropping enough to your satisfaction.

No need that long long time we get kinda same reply from suport with the hint " good and bad time" or stuff meaning somehow the same.

 

[Xen]

Thanks for that Xen. Could you please quote us the question you asked/problem you had, that is, if it's not too personal. It seems you had an issue with (L) BPs not dropping enough to your satisfaction.

EDIT:
Also, please note that I did admit that re: mining and crafting, skills (and professions) do play a part in terms of the success and what you get, if anything.

I just complained that L bp's seemed to have completely stopped dropping (for myself and others).

I guess this could have been due to my luck, but as others had the same problem, maybe MA manually or semi-manually controls the number of bps (L or not) in circulation.

Yes, we agree that skills help with mining and crafting, I didn't mean to imply that was something we disagreed on. Perhaps skills matter for hunting loot also. I'd be interested in a test of that as well.

 

[Xen]

No need that long long time we get kinda same reply from suport with the hint " good and bad time" or stuff meaning somehow the same.

Yes, but the question is, is it truly luck/chance, or is it programmed luck?

 

[Doer]

For those who are avid fans of the theory of loot being entirely mob-based, i'd like to point to the second tant uberhof for a single player in one day. He hunts a lot of tants, but as i said two or maybe three tant uber-hofs for him ago--that HOF rate ain't commensurate with the difference in how much we hunt them. Those of us camping the spawn here, that see each other every day, are all very pleased to be part of the "out crowd" that has lost precipitously on them lately, of course. The three tantillion uber hofs on the board went to two players, one who hunted them for a day or two, and one who HOFs on them every other week or so.

It's an entirely avatar-independent system, for sure.

 

[NotVF]

No its not. Unless things have changed a great deal since I started in PE.

I remember my noob loots and how they have changed as my skills have increased even on low level mobs like Exos. Sure I could get lucky now and then hunting in Pixie with a Jester D-1 but it wasnt until I hit about mid range in skill level I noticed a change. I got more minis, globals, and an occasional HOF. Same with mining, in the beginning, nothing but lyst, oil, melchi, and belkar for the most part once in a while maybe Gazz or Garcen. When I hit mid range skill level(PE mining skill level that is) I was finding almost the full library of resources except for some of the really rare ones and I was getting more claims per mining run. Then MA changed mining now finders are more of an important factor and you need skills to use those finders effectively.

Having better loot and better efficiency is motivation for skilling up and spending the time, effort, and money growing your avatar.

But you just proved the whole casino theory.

You moved up from the penny slots to the dime slots. From the dime slots, you progressed to the quarter slots, the dollar slots, and now you play the 5 dollar slots, all the time eyeing the ubers at the 50 dollar slots.

Of course you get better payout. Sure your bell rings more often than before to indicate you got more than 5 bucks. What truly matters though is how much you spent to get it.

You could get three 1k+ loots in an hour, but if you dropped 5k+ to get them, it doesn't really mean much.

There's a part of me that enjoys this post (as one of my main drives is "figuring out the way a system works"), and another that scares me (since if this game is nothing but gambling (and the skill-nerfing sure seems to turn it into exactly that), what's to stop 1 government from labelling it as such, and other governments following suit?).

I would _LOVE_ for MA to actually be under regulation and accountability. (heck, I do _not_ buy their "We're an official bank now" statement. I worked (and currently work) at many banks, and if I made one tenth of the screwups that happens here, I'd have been fired on the spot). Like someone said earlier, I'd like to know the system is fair, at least.

 

[Xen]

For those who are avid fans of the theory of loot being entirely mob-based, i'd like to point to the second tant uberhof for a single player in one day. He hunts a lot of tants, but as i said two or maybe three tant uber-hofs for him ago--that HOF rate ain't commensurate with the difference in how much we hunt them. Those of us camping the spawn here, that see each other every day, are all very pleased to be part of the "out crowd" that has lost precipitously on them lately, of course. The three tantillion uber hofs on the board went to two players, one who hunted them for a day or two, and one who HOFs on them every other week or so.

It's an entirely avatar-independent system, for sure.

Few comments about that...

Doesn't this person hunt them more than pretty much anyone else?

Is he hunting them with a higher dam/sec weapon and thus killing more of them?

Is it possible this person is in a very good part of his programmed luck cycle (supposing that exists)?

This person has very high skills, is it possible that makes a difference?

 

[JohnCapital]

I just complained that L bp's seemed to have completely stopped dropping (for myself and others).

I guess this could have been due to my luck, but as others had the same problem, maybe MA manually or semi-manually controls the number of bps (L or not) in circulation.

Re-read what I said about the balancing staff "restocking" the loot database. The fact that some items (like the above mentioned BPs) points clearly toward that concept. MA has also essentially admitted it in various posts.

In short, during that time, the # of (L) BPs available in the loot database was essentially 0 or near-0.

Take Boar, for example. The number of Boar armor pieces in the loot database at the moment, I believe is 0, or 1 at the most.

 

[Xen]

Re-read what I said about the balancing staff "restocking" the loot database. The fact that some items (like the above mentioned BPs) points clearly toward that concept. MA has also essentially admitted it in various posts.

In short, during that time, the # of (L) BPs available in the loot database was essentially 0 or near-0.

Take Boar, for example. The number of Boar armor pieces in the loot database at the moment, I believe is 0, or 1 at the most.

Yes, I likened this to special prizes in slot machines (like "win a car" or something).

 

[Etopia]

Yes, but the question is, is it truly luck/chance, or is it programmed luck?

you sure you whant to hear my tehorie ?

Luck , ramdom , casino , skill .... my ass...
MA whant to control we have prouf of that evryday... so , you can be sure most part of evrything is controled.

 

[JohnCapital]

There's a part of me that enjoys this post (as one of my main drives is "figuring out the way a system works"), and another that scares me (since if this game is nothing but gambling (and the skill-nerfing sure seems to turn it into exactly that), what's to stop 1 government from labelling it as such, and other governments following suit?).

I would _LOVE_ for MA to actually be under regulation and accountability. (heck, I do _not_ buy their "We're an official bank now" statement. I worked (and currently work) at many banks, and if I made one tenth of the screwups that happens here, I'd have been fired on the spot). Like someone said earlier, I'd like to know the system is fair, at least.

OK, I need to make one point very clear:

IMHO Even though Entropia's loot system may be loosely based on the casino's 97% payback concept, Entropia is NOT a casino.

In casinos the only way to improve your odds at winning is to cheat in some fashion. You can play the statistics, but you can not improve your chances.

Entropia allows us to improve our chances and make money with almost 0 risk when done right. there are many things available like selling items, doing haircuts, being a pilot, performing other services that we simply can't do as a casino customer.

Wanna make money right now? But the right armor, gun and skills and go camp PVP3&4 for miners. Easy pickings.

Entropia is NOT a casino. It's so much better than any casino you could ever hope for.

However, with that being said, MindArk is in the business to make money. Therefore they can not and will not pay out more than we deposit (as a whole, not individually)

So, the amount of loot available must be based on how much we spend, and in Entropia that means how much decay, ammo, bombs, etc. we use.

EDIT:
Hope that helps you feel better VF. Oops, I mean.. aw, wtf?

 

[Xen]

you sure you whant to hear my tehorie ?

Luck , ramdom , casino , skill .... my ass...
MA whant to control we have prouf of that evryday... so , you can be sure most part of evrything is controled.

You mean micromanagement of everything? Nahhh...

But do they give special loots to people they like once in a while, or at a certain time for publicity? Probably.

Maybe even there is a programmed luck factor and if someone is good or bad they can adjust it for that person... possible.

 

[Xen]

OK, I need to make one point very clear:

IMHO Even though Entropia's loot system may be loosely based on the casino's 97% payback concept, Entropia is NOT a casino.

In casinos the only way to improve your odds at winning is to cheat in some fashion. You can play the statistics, but you can not improve your chances.

Entropia allows us to improve our chances and make money with almost 0 risk when done right. there are many things available like selling items, doing haircuts, being a pilot, performing other services that we simply can't do as a casino customer.

Wanna make money right now? But the right armor, gun and skills and go camp PVP3&4 for miners. Easy pickings.

Entropia is NOT a casino. It's so much better than any casino you could ever hope for.

However, with that being said, MindArk is in the business to make money. Therefore they can not and will not pay out more than we deposit (as a whole, not individually)

So, the amount of loot available must be based on how much we spend, and in Entropia that means how much decay, ammo, bombs, etc. we use.

EDIT:
Hope that helps you feel better VF. Oops, I mean.. aw, wtf?

Well, there are ways to increase your odds with skill at certain games in casinos. Skill is involved with poker. However, you don't take money from the casino, you take it from the other players (like in EU). Skill is also involved with blackjack. Especially if you can count cards (and not get caught). So, skill can help in a casino, like in EU.

However, like you said, there are things you can do in EU that you can't do in a casino. But that still leaves a large part of the game operating like a casino (imo).

 

[Doer]

Few comments about that...

Doesn't this person hunt them more than pretty much anyone else?

Is he hunting them with a higher dam/sec weapon and thus killing more of them?

Yes, these are both valid points that I alluded to. But -- not to the degree that the HOFs collected would suggest, if we just say that the mob determines the loot. This came up a few months ago and by the numbers given then, there's no good reason I (for one) haven't HOFed on them in the time I've been grinding by comparison. As a matter of fact, I haven't even globaled on them over the last 10+k PEDs.

Is it possible this person is in a very good part of his programmed luck cycle (supposing that exists)?

This person has very high skills, is it possible that makes a difference?

Yes and yes. Again, fine explanation, but the first doesn't really explain my results by contrast unless we conclude that the programmatic luck cycle is very long or not equal across the board. Whether or not the second could be true is currently a matter of discussion here.

The random newcomer HOFing is, of course, not a statistical impossibility. However, the number of mobs killed by the regulars over the last week compared to the number killed by him is rather staggering, along with the odds. I'm a fan of Occam's Razor, and the simplest explanation for these (regularly occurring) kinds of things is that there are avatar factors.

I think i've brought it up enough times now for people to get my point, so I'll leave it be.

 

[Kolobok]

Many thanks to all people who contributed to this thread.

For those who would like to compare the payback of a same mob with different avatars, just beware that it takes at least 1000 mobs to get a reasonably useful statistics, for sure not 40 or 100. I still have my Excel sheets with more than 600 berycleds and 600 molisks killed at the time of EU 8.7 or so (good old days), every single loot was recorded. That was very useful at that time to understand in general how loot works and how to hunt efficiently, but by no means it can serve as a base for some quantitative estimations, because of insufficient amount of data. However if anybody has similar data for larger number of mobs, please PM me, it will be quite interesting to compare it with mine also in terms of changes with VUs in time.

 

[Dahlifyr]

Hehe, the answer as we now it is that Eu is a big Fu**ing pyramid scam!! Nothing more about it. Its like poker, people like to win some and to lose some.

 

[Witte]

I dont believe in programmed personal "luck" cycles. I always find my luck, one way or another. If there would be cycles that would be impossible. I believe it all comes down to location and moment. The looting avatar has totally no influence on the loot. It is just a sequence of people putting money in a "slotmachine", and if you put it in on the right moment you hit the jackpot. But in a more or less random system, you can always have periods of bad loot and periods of good loot.

 

[HellspawnSatans]

This post is definately moderately accurate. Those of us that have played this game for a long time know the brass tacs of it.

No matter what casino type engine that runs loot, skills, hofs, ATH's and such there are men and women at the other end of the servers. This men and women have hearts and souls. Now some are heartless and cold and some are extremely generous and that can vary day to day hour to hour.

Specific loots/items are dropped and taken away from players from time to time, just at a whim. Their job is to create hype and flash. Sometimes that happens all on its own, and sometimes when the casino engine is producing a 'low morale' effect, bam in comes a burst of hope, sometimes for a us as the collective such as the uber ATH's. And sometimes just for one in a silent and passive way.

That is the casino/human engine that does run this game. And I for one am very happy with it now just as I was the first day I joined the game almost 3 years ago.

Mike aka Hellspawn

 

[Abby]

Phew JC thats a big ass mamma post! + Rep for the detailed analysis and clear cohesive presentation, Guess thats why your the General of The Chosen Few!

Random has just become my favourite new word. As for the Church of Lootius - well those guys always were nuttier than squirrel shite so hey, they will live with the the new Branch Randomian belivers or we could just tharsh it out on PvP4

 

[Jimmy B]

Pham is pretty convinced it isn't.

I haven't got the quote to hand, but last post of Pham seemed to be blaming ping/packet loss/etc for high level of misses at least in part for his troubles. (think it was in the mccormick debug mode thread).

Beginner's luck: there are endless examples of players who hit their biggest loot within a short period of starting. This is great as a "hook".

Grinder's nerf: equally common is to see a spawn full of avatars grinding a mob for months on end only to have someone new show up or a random team run through on the way to somewhere else and HOF on it in a short period Tants ffs...Rippers...

Well I can neither prove nor disprove either of these. But I guess there are quite a lot of people who had quick hofs. Maybe you have a very lucky phase early on - if everyone has more chance of luck early on I guess its the same for everyone.

There's also a popular theory that you get more chance of HOF after a break. Can't say I've experienced anything that confirms that one myself.

As for the grinders, two of my three best hunting hofs came from a mob I was grinding, so I'm not totally convinced there. Other things could explain it too - I've always considered it possible that players have lucky mobs and unlucky mobs.

 

[keltigirl]

outstanding post !! how can i give starts to john? how can i get the disciples to read it? would help some of them immeasurably!



you get my vote.

 

[Kolobok]

There's also a popular theory that you get more chance of HOF after a break. Can't say I've experienced anything that confirms that one myself.

I had less loot after three weeks break, same for my soc mate, he has been losing a lot, and that never happened before the break. In part Witte's luck could be due to the fact that he is a regular player

Other things could explain it too - I've always considered it possible that players have lucky mobs and unlucky mobs.

It seems very true. For example, my payback on drones and molisks is just incomparable. Lot of globals on drones, zero on molisks (and I did kill thousands of both of them). Other people say they hardly ever global on drones but are quite happy with some other mob.

In general, I agree with people who say that there are many examples that are impossible to explain without assuming the relationship of avatar and his/her loot.

 

[Wildman Alpha]

Could you repeat that I didn't get it

Looks like what I have thought/theroized all along +rep

 

[Rayne Jade]

I did not read all the replies... so I apologize if I repeat what someone else said. This is a long thread...

To me, a "loot pool" implies that there is only so much PED available for loots at a certain time. I strongly disagree...

MA is not a bank. They are under no obligation to maintain a pile of money on the chance that all players would sell out today and withdraw. Banks, for the most part, must do this. MA controls the withdraw process and does not have to transfer funds to you until they deem it OK. When you deposit, you are simply buying PED - nothing else. No different that entering another country and buying the currency there. If there are 10 ATH today, MA is not in any financial trouble at all - all that PED will still be safely in the game for at least 45-60 days. A great part of that will be reinvested (repairs, ammo, shopping spree for shadow, etc) The PED changes hands constantly, but only in rare cases does it leave EU. Player to player means nothing to MA. The Trade Terminal does not count either. You can buy 100K ammo, and immediately sell it back without any lose to you or MA. You simply transformed your PED into something usable, but it is expendable. Once you use that ammo, it is gone (so are your PED).

I kinda agree that loots are predetermined by the mob, but only as far as molisk teeth can only be looted from a molisk. I do not think mobs spawn and immediately are carrying a Vigi harness. It is well known and documented that certain mobs drop certain items, but that does not mean that hunting these mobs 24/7 for a month will eventually get you the item.

The "drops", as they are called are 100% random and 100% controlled at the same time. Meaning - at the time of looting a complex algorithm is performed with who knows how many factors involved. There are probably also rotating variables involved. Today could be Serendipity Day: if your seren is over XXXX you get those Vigi Arms. Tomorrow, might be clubs. I tend to notice that a well rounded avatar will do better overall. Meaning, focusing one just one profession, example hunting, will make your good at the act of killing mobs, it may not make you successful overall. My thoughts support the well rounded avatar theory, so I am not stating a fact, just another theory.

MA must control the drop rates on items, especially the high value ones. And NO it is not MA trying to control the economy - they cold care less IMO. MA has no opinion on the markup of a Shadow Helmet. The value of that item is simply whatever someone is willing to pay for it. They only control the drop rates becuase they realize there is a real value to it beyond TT value. If I loot a Shadow Helmet I am free to sell it. If I loot 20, I can sell all 20. However, once they are sold, I can request withdraw. At that point MA is obligated to transfer those funds to me. It may take a few months, but eventually MA will be paying me. To MA the economy is simply this: what did we take in? what did we pay out? The economy to us is: what is the markup on that Shadow Helmet.

When the creature is looted, that is when it is all determined. The instance of loot lag confirms this I think. If it was automatic, no lag would occur. Automatic is firing your weapon. I do notice that just before I crash, I am still able to fire away at a mob without damage inflicted to the mob. There is now a disconnect between my end and the server. Think of it like a dropped call on a cell phone. You can still talk all you want, but the other person is not hearing you. There is a brief period that it appears as if you are still connected to the call, but you are not. Eventually, you are kicked from EU, just like eventually your cell phone will beep to tell you that you lost the call.

The algorithm is run with countless variables as well as some constants like skills, the mob, and some others. The mob is important because we all know what mobs drop wood, wool, iron, etc. Other than that, I think what John said makes sense for the most part.

 

[Jimmy B]

Quite an interesting find just reported, which is indirectly quite relevant to the topics under discussion here:

https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/showthread.php?t=77496

 

[Witte]

Quite an interesting find just reported, which is indirectly quite relevant to the topics under discussion here:

https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/showthread.php?t=77496

Some other stuff, that I tested well enough to presume it as fact: Loot is dependent on damage the mob took, not on the mobs maximum hp. This means when you let the mob regenerate, your loot will be higher. This also proofs that loot is determined after you kill the mob, and not before.

Although I tested this long ago, it could be changed.

 

[JohnCapital]

Some other stuff, that I tested well enough to presume it as fact: Loot is dependent on damage the mob took, not on the mobs maximum hp. This means when you let the mob regenerate, your loot will be higher. This also proofs that loot is determined after you kill the mob, and not before.

Although I tested this long ago, it could be changed.

Very interesting. But what about all the times folks revive kill and the loot still sucks?