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Nightbird's Loot Distribution Theory

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The Nightbird said:
Take that to a computer programmer, but be sure to fill him in on the patterns that have to be created, not just some random X, random Y code.

I am one, but I might be biased :laugh:
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Actually, as I am a computer programmer, and have been in the business for 20 some odd years now, mostly working on very large databases for government, military, and medical applications, I have to agree with Ironheart's statement. Storage space is the last consideration. Processing is top, IO is second.
 
Kirov said:
Actually, as I am a computer programmer, and have been in the business for 20 some odd years now, mostly working on very large databases for government, military, and medical applications, I have to agree with Ironheart's statement. Storage space is the last consideration. Processing is top, IO is second.
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Have you done anything like dna pattern code recognition, percent match probability, protein similarity, that sort of thing in your medical application part? The issue isn't managing locations, but generating them with certain patterns in mind.
 
Personally I think the patterns are mostly an illusion, as humans are excellent at taking any random assortment of things and finding patterns. But if they did want patterns, it is fairly simple to apply any number of formulas to one space in an array to get another space in the array. Most of that would be done in hardware anyway and would be blazingly fast.

As for patterns of things like loot being lower across the board for everyone around the time of a global, that is really simple. Just have every loot calculation have a random variable, possibly called GREED :) If they want the loot pool to be larger, they add a tiny bit to the GREED percentage, if smaller just subtract... Then every loot is either a tiny bit bigger or tiny bit smaller.

If I was programming it and I wanted to make things happen on the fly, I certainly would not waste database space by keeping deposits around if you didn't claim them immediately. I would work it just like mob loot, click the window, it generates, and it is gone.
 
I see :laugh:

I think I'll close the discussion on other theories. It's fine if you think mine is wrong, but please open another thread with a different clearly stated theory and we can discuss that theory there.
 
a load of old tosh was here
 
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aridash said:
But this doesnt make any sence. you have to carry out these calculations at some point regardless of which approach is used. having the system perform the calculations upon an avatar action is just as complex as performing it at a predetemined point in time, the algoritm to generate a vein or pattern doesnt change. The only difference is the storage involved and managing your server load.

Indeed, predetermined is more wasteful if the deposit is then not found, but no more so than generating gnib, chipry, dung, fruit, exo, atrox....
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Actually, with my system, veins appear automatically and there is no algorism necessary. Same with good and bad periods, no need to calculate deposit density. Want a good period? Just widen loot window, vice versa for bad periods.

There is no need to set conditions for good periods, bad periods, and all sorts of crazy stuff in between it all, that you would need if it is all pregenerated.

Also, have you seen mobs spawn? lol They all appear in a big clump :p
 
How exactly would your system generate veins of ore? I must have missed something...
 
Kirov said:
How exactly would your system generate veins of ore? I must have missed something...
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My system is there is a function, call it sin(Y) (but it can be any periodic function), that generates deposits. Sin(Y) has range -1 to 1, so if you drop randomly, there is 100% chance you'll hit a value from -1 to 1 or [-1,1], a 50% change you'll hit a value from [0,1], a 25% chance of hitting a value from [0.5,1]. etc etc.

All MA has to do is control the loot window, the number A for [A, 1], to control returns. When the window is very wide, such as [0,1], then for a person dropping randomly, there is a 50% chance of hitting on the first drop, 50% of hitting on the second drop, etc etc... so there is a 25% chance of hitting 2 consequentive deposits, i.e. a 2 claim vein, a 12.5% chance of hitting a 3 claim vein, a 6.25% chance of hitting a 4 claim vein, etc, so veins appear by chance.


There is also a more direct way, and that is to make the window the widest possible, i.e. [-1, 1]. Then every drop will hit 100% of the time, then you're guaranteed to find veins, for as long as MA keeps the window so wide. I am fairly sure that this does occur and quite frequently, so everyone has found veins at some point. It doesn't hurt MA to give out 100% hits for a minute because they have total control and can close the window up after a while to suck peds away.
 
what a load of nonsence, what was i thinking
 
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aridash said:
utter nonsence, somthing can only come about in the system as the result, planned or accidental, of some calculation performed and therefore an algorithm. your maths is the algorithm. quite how it creates a vien is beyond me, i lack any decent skill in maths.

and mobs do not always form clumps, you often get patterns emerging particularly lines.

if you seperate out deposits and loot, you will will see that everything you are trying to do with windows etc is still achievable within the scope of a loot server. :eureka:
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Ok, you shouldn't have made that statement if you admit you don't understand math. With what I said above, there is NO ALGORISM for veins. They appear naturally.
 
The Nightbird said:
My system is there is a function, call it sin(Y) (but it can be any periodic function), that generates deposits. Sin(Y) has range -1 to 1, so if you drop randomly, there is 100% chance you'll hit a value from -1 to 1 or [-1,1], a 50% change you'll hit a value from [0,1], a 25% chance of hitting a value from [0.5,1]. etc etc.

All MA has to do is control the loot window, the number A for [A, 1], to control returns. When the window is very wide, such as [0,1], then for a person dropping randomly, there is a 50% chance of hitting on the first drop, 50% of hitting on the second drop, etc etc... so there is a 25% chance of hitting 2 consequentive deposits, i.e. a 2 claim vein, a 12.5% chance of hitting a 3 claim vein, a 6.25% chance of hitting a 4 claim vein, etc, so veins appear by chance.


There is also a more direct way, and that is to make the window the widest possible, i.e. [-1, 1]. Then every drop will hit 100% of the time, then you're guaranteed to find veins, for as long as MA keeps the window so wide. I am fairly sure that this does occur and quite frequently, so everyone has found veins at some point. It doesn't hurt MA to give out 100% hits for a minute because they have total control and can close the window up after a while to suck peds away.
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Then the veins are only invented by human pattern matching, therefore people would have noticed that they had just as much chance of having a vein that went in a straight line as they did of having one in a Z shape or M shape or any squiggle, since there isn't really any vein. As there is pretty good evidence that people do actually see veins (although they could be dreaming) your theory would not account for that. Personally, I think veins are a pattern matching artifact, so either your theory or the random distribution theory would account for it just fine. So far your theory has more holes than solutions, and occam's razor is still more in favor of the common theory. If it works for you, excellent, I wish you much profit!
 
Kirov said:
Then the veins are only invented by human pattern matching, therefore people would have noticed that they had just as much chance of having a vein that went in a straight line as they did of having one in a Z shape or M shape or any squiggle, since there isn't really any vein. As there is pretty good evidence that people do actually see veins (although they could be dreaming) your theory would not account for that. Personally, I think veins are a pattern matching artifact, so either your theory or the random distribution theory would account for it just fine. So far your theory has more holes than solutions, and occam's razor is still more in favor of the common theory. If it works for you, excellent, I wish you much profit!
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How many people repeated run Z or M patterns? :p I presented why I felt my theory fits the observations, and you have simply stated yours. If you care to create a thread and thoroughly explain the "common" theory, I'd be happy to go over and dissect it apart. For now though, all you've stated is your opinion hence I can't form any arguments against it.
 
Nice Theory...Do think this may also apply to hunting or crafting?
 
The Nightbird said:
Actually, with my system, veins appear automatically and there is no algorism necessary.
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As it would in a pregenerated matrix of deposit locations too ;)

The Nightbird said:
There is no need to set conditions for good periods, bad periods, and all sorts of crazy stuff in between it all, that you would need if it is all pregenerated.
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Why do you keep ignoring that most people are making a clear distincion between spawn and loot? As ironheart pointed out, your theory is quite ok for "explaining" the dynamic parts. But i see no revolutionary ideas here either, your theory is just one possible way how timing, good periods, bad periods etc works. I think noone here actually believes that loot (the loot value) is pregenerated, as well as conditions for good and bad periods etc. It would be very "undynamic". But what they do believe is that locations are spawned are kept in a db, and i see no flaws in that.

The Nightbird said:
Also, have you seen mobs spawn? lol They all appear in a big clump :p
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Wrong. Sometimes they can group together that way after spawning, but i think it's more due to the new "improved" AI. Ever witnessed a true spawn, after a server is rebooted or similar? They pop up all over in a "random" pattern, and quite quick too. I do believe MA are lazy enough to use the same system for ore and enmatter spawn, and why shouldn't they? Seeing how quick mobs spawn after a reboot, why is it so hard to believe that ore and enmatter spawn with a few basic attributes (location, type) at the same time? And then let a more dynamic system control our actual loot values? Makes perfect sense to me at least :)
 
Why do people keep challenging my assumptions? It's just pain silly. You can't prove the assumptions, for or against. If you have a different theory built on different assumptions, that's fine. Don't post them here.
 
The Nightbird said:
Why do people keep challenging my assumptions? It's just pain silly. You can't prove the assumptions, for or against. If you have a different theory built on different assumptions, that's fine. Don't post them here.
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Noone except MA knows exactly how it works. All i've seen in this thread is healthy discussion? Why make a "loot theory" thread and don't allow people to challange its flaws and present their input in the discussion? Now that is just plain silly.

I still think this theory has some nice parts, but also some parts that raises some questions and some parts that needs to be discussed more.
 
geten said:
Noone except MA knows exactly how it works. All i've seen in this thread is healthy discussion? Why make a "loot theory" thread and don't allow people to challange its flaws and present their input in the discussion? Now that is just plain silly.

I still think this theory has some nice parts, but also some parts that raises some questions and some parts that needs to be discussed more.
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The only question/discussion/challenge posed so far is on my inability to prove my assumption. If you see otherwise, please do correct me. Please stop discussing what can't be resolved and asking for proof for what can't be proved.
 
The Nightbird said:
The only question/discussion/challenge posed so far is on my inability to prove my assumption. If you see otherwise, please do correct me. Please stop discussing what can't be resolved and asking for proof for what can't be proved.
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Wth? Since when did i ask for proof? Since when did anyone ask for proof? I even stated that "only MA know how it works". But a theory can have weak points and points that raises questions, that's all. Why can't there be discussions about that? :dunno:
 
I, for one, dont even think MA knows how it works. :laugh: :laugh:
 
geten said:
Wth? Since when did i ask for proof? Since when did anyone ask for proof? I even stated that "only MA know how it works". But a theory can have weak points and points that raises questions, that's all. Why can't there be discussions about that? :dunno:
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Name the weak points other than the one and only assumption.

As for my only justification (not proof or logic, just wishful thinking) of the assumption, is that if the assumption is false and there all deposits are pre-generated and do not depend on player input, then there is absolutely no way to beat the system.
 
The Nightbird said:
Name the weak points other than the one and only assumption.

As for my only justification (not proof or logic, just wishful thinking) of the assumption, is that if the assumption is false and there all deposits are pre-generated and do not depend on player input, then there is absolutely no way to beat the system.
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My input in the discussion was that i thought you were a bit too "black and white" in your thinking (everything pre-generated vs nothing pre-generated) and i only pointed out that most people (afaik) only think the location is pre-generated, not the value :) Other people were discussing the impact on the database amongst other things, but they can speak for themselves.
 
geten said:
My input in the discussion was that i thought you were a bit too "black and white" in your thinking (everything pre-generated vs nothing pre-generated) and i only pointed out that most people (afaik) only think the location is pre-generated, not the value :) Other people were discussing the impact on the database amongst other things, but they can speak for themselves.
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It is a black and white issue, plus from the start I stated this was a theory about deposit locations, not values.
 
The Nightbird said:
It is a black and white issue, plus from the start I stated this was a theory about deposit locations, not values.
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Hmm, maybe i did some bad explaining. What i meant was i thought you ignored/misunderstood the input from other users where they pointed out that the "common" theory of pregenerated deposits was for the location only, not _everything_ as you said below:

The Nightbird said:
There is no need to set conditions for good periods, bad periods, and all sorts of crazy stuff in between it all, that you would need if it is all pregenerated.
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drunken rabbling
 
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aridash said:
and thats not a possiblility, that the system is design not to be beaten? :scratch:



then why the hell use the term "loot" in the title and cause all this confusion?

i recall now that my original comment on this was due to the misappropiate use of occams razor. reviewing the first post, its clear that you acknowledge that you dismiss pre-determined deposit generation. fair enough. but since the whole theory rests on this unproven point, which many say is contradicted by their experience, is it little wonder the theory is questioned?
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Ok, this is my last reply to such posts. 1. It is impossible for people who mine randomly to determine from experience alone whether deposit are pre-generated or not. 2. Occams razor does apply, as my method of deposit generation is without doubt the most simple possible for generating patterns of any complexity. 3. No one needs to take my word for it, but I didn't simply post a theory without any testing. I have tested it and currently use it and have profited on every single mining run ever since I started using this system. For me, that is solid proof but as mentioned before, I will not demonstrate it for I revealed only 33% of my system. This part I revealed is key however, and I wish anyone who tries to decipher the rest of the system best of luck :)

I wanted to leave a cookie for those who love a challenge to find, that was the sole purpose of this thread.

p.s. I will make a hunting theory thread after the new year when I have time to demonstrate it :) Yep, even though I won't demonstrate my mining system, I have no problems showing my hunting system off since watching me won't divulge any secrets :laugh:
 
drunken rabbling
 
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aridash said:
c) you are starting to sound like Rattex
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No you are. It seems to me that everyone but you understood from the first post that the theory comes from dynamically generated deposit assumption. Noone wants to see a discussion on the assumption itself so how about you go make your own "pre-generated or dynamic" thread before people who actually care about what Nightbird has to say instead of nitpicking on him decide to shove Occams razor up your a$$. ^^

/edit didnt mean to sound so harsh, just the razor sounded way2cool not to use it =)
 
indeed, i have got sidetracked, and i thank you for your observation. :tiphat:
 
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