Nightbird's Loot Distribution Theory

[McCormick]

Oh btw. :

http://mccormick.starbase.se/grid.avi

 

[The Nightbird]

Oh btw. :

http://mccormick.starbase.se/grid.avi

I strike it down with hellfire!

 

[Scourge]

__To penalize overlapping, every drop is blacklisted by the server (it records the drop location, the radius from that location of the find, or the radius of the finder if nothing is found). Dropping too close to a blacklisted spot results in a penality (for example, a window of [0,1] becomes [0.75,1]), with the penality being more severe the closer you are to a blacklisted spot. Blacklisted spots expire after a period of time and there is a limit to the list of blacklisted spots - when full, a new one will bump the oldest one off.

Ive recently dropped 3 bombs in a row in the exact same spot and 3 claims popped upp next to eachother. and how can this be possible if the spot is sopposed to be blacklisted? it has happened that ive got 2 in the same spot a few times aswell. i mean it would be impossible for an funktional blacklist to go through the whol list to clear my spot before i can drop a new bomb.

I like ur theorie. ive not been playing for long but ive noticed there seem to be alot theories that really doesnt seem to make any sense or even any proof for them. but still ppl are say "It is like this".. (which u dont) ive been considering similar theory. but not as deeply..

 

[Jambor]

Right, I was about to mention that my theory doesn't cover globals. It does make rattax's spiral theory possible under special cases, though it not often.

All the time I thought you was Rat3xx

 

[Jambor]

Seriosly though sounds like a good idea..

 

[The Nightbird]

Nooo don't necro this thread AAAaaaaahhhhh!!!! Night of the DEAD!

 

[Scourge]

Ive recently dropped 3 bombs in a row in the exact same spot and 3 claims popped upp next to eachother. and how can this be possible if the spot is sopposed to be blacklisted? it has happened that ive got 2 in the same spot a few times aswell. i mean it would be impossible for an funktional blacklist to go through the whol list to clear my spot before i can drop a new bomb.

I like ur theorie. ive not been playing for long but ive noticed there seem to be alot theories that really doesnt seem to make any sense or even any proof for them. but still ppl are say "It is like this".. (which u dont) ive been considering similar theory. but not as deeply..

ill repost this couse i got no responce on it

 

[Teranoz]

Ive recently dropped 3 bombs in a row in the exact same spot and 3 claims popped upp next to eachother. and how can this be possible if the spot is sopposed to be blacklisted? it has happened that ive got 2 in the same spot a few times aswell. i mean it would be impossible for an funktional blacklist to go through the whol list to clear my spot before i can drop a new bomb.

I like ur theorie. ive not been playing for long but ive noticed there seem to be alot theories that really doesnt seem to make any sense or even any proof for them. but still ppl are say "It is like this".. (which u dont) ive been considering similar theory. but not as deeply..

Congratulations !! You just killed a theory with evidence.

 

[Caoryn]

ill repost this couse i got no responce on it

My personal mining theory: Claims are pregenerated (Resource, co-ords, depth. TT value maybe too) and the overall amount of them is constant (It might be constant for a given resource, IE there is 50 claims for Gold, 10 for Platinum and 38774 for Lyst in the whole PE. Though certain resources only spawn in certain areas) - meaning that once you hit something, it will respawn immediately (Or maybe you first need to mine the claim out, I do that ASAP just in case it would respawn right where I am going).

As for multihits - Pay attention to depth and range of the claims (range in relation to your original position). I'd be very interested to know if the finder first goes through depth or range.

Here comes the ASCII diagram:


_____A_____ Depth of layer
XXXXXXXXXX 0-100
LXXXXXXXLX 100-200
XXXXXGzXXX 200-300
XXXXXXXXXX 300-400
XXXXXXXXXX 400-500
CalXXXXXXXX 500-600
XXXXXXXXXX 600-700
XLXXXXXXXX 700-800
XXXXXXXXGo 800-900
XXXXXXXXXX 900-1000


Now, I'd like to know if higher finders actually are able to detect stuff in upper layers. With a maxed OF 102 I seem to be able to find stuff in 0-450m, and I am determined to write down the depths and types of my finds from now on. I'd like to ask you miners out there to do the same, along with the used finder type, and share the knowledge.

Like I said, the first paragraph is just my personal opinion (along with the diagram).

 

[Angel D]

Ive recently dropped 3 bombs in a row in the exact same spot and 3 claims popped upp next to eachother. and how can this be possible if the spot is sopposed to be blacklisted? it has happened that ive got 2 in the same spot a few times aswell. i mean it would be impossible for an funktional blacklist to go through the whol list to clear my spot before i can drop a new bomb.

I like ur theorie. ive not been playing for long but ive noticed there seem to be alot theories that really doesnt seem to make any sense or even any proof for them. but still ppl are say "It is like this".. (which u dont) ive been considering similar theory. but not as deeply..

It's addressed in this thread:

https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/showthread.php?t=61563

I believe the blacklisting bit says that the circle with radius equal to the distance to the claim find is blacklisted - so if you drop a bomb and find something at 10meters range, a 10 meter radius circle is blackened but if you drop again from the same spot, 90% of the search area still viable.

All I meant to say with the bit was to say something along the lines that the server keeps track of where bombs are dropped - for a while anyways. Don't put too much thought into this cuz I hadn't in writing it up.

 

[Thorrn]

Ive recently dropped 3 bombs in a row in the exact same spot and 3 claims popped upp next to eachother. and how can this be possible if the spot is sopposed to be blacklisted? it has happened that ive got 2 in the same spot a few times aswell. i mean it would be impossible for an funktional blacklist to go through the whol list to clear my spot before i can drop a new bomb.

I like ur theorie. ive not been playing for long but ive noticed there seem to be alot theories that really doesnt seem to make any sense or even any proof for them. but still ppl are say "It is like this".. (which u dont) ive been considering similar theory. but not as deeply..

If there is a black list, it probably blacklists the exact coordinates,,not the area...and Im sure you have never ever gotten more than one depo at THE EXACT same spot before, whether you just dug it up or not. Closest I personally have experienced is 2 claims within 10m of one another. But I believe I saw one in these forums that was something like 3m from one another.

 

[Scourge]

If there is a black list, it probably blacklists the exact coordinates,,not the area...and Im sure you have never ever gotten more than one depo at THE EXACT same spot before, whether you just dug it up or not. Closest I personally have experienced is 2 claims within 10m of one another. But I believe I saw one in these forums that was something like 3m from one another.

but what is the poin of blocklist a cordinate. then u can still basicly just stand still and bomb in one place. i mean the range must cover aver 1000 cordinates.. no poin in blacklisting the single cordinate.. wont do much... u need a miracle to hit that same cardiate again

 

[Thorrn]

but what is the poin of blocklist a cordinate. then u can still basicly just stand still and bomb in one place. i mean the range must cover aver 1000 cordinates.. no poin in blacklisting the single cordinate.. wont do much... u need a miracle to hit that same cardiate again

I wasnt agreeing with or disagreeing with anyone. I was just giving my opinion as to why you can find multiple claims from one bomb site,,,and it fits the bill to a T, does it not?

It seems like everything in this game is pure speculation...Sure some people have countless data, that points this way or that way,,,but no one knows for sure about anything in this game and thats the way MA wants it to be, so that is the way it is going to be forever. One grouping of evidence can work great for an uber, but poorly for a noob, and vice versa...Who knows, who cares,,,just play the game, or leave,,,you have choices...LOL

 

[Scourge]

I wasnt agreeing with or disagreeing with anyone. I was just giving my opinion as to why you can find multiple claims from one bomb site,,,and it fits the bill to a T, does it not?

It seems like everything in this game is pure speculation...Sure some people have countless data, that points this way or that way,,,but no one knows for sure about anything in this game and thats the way MA wants it to be, so that is the way it is going to be forever. One grouping of evidence can work great for an uber, but poorly for a noob, and vice versa...Who knows, who cares,,,just play the game, or leave,,,you have choices...LOL

I enjoy the game but i also enjoy speculations

 

[Sircus]

How do u apply amps that would bring u a global on each hit. Also your theory has it any application on cnd? Is there a different cycle (big difference) on Amathera compared to Eudoria?

Nice post in the beginning

 

[Windswept]

back when claim rods were exactly that.. rods in the ground that had a light on the top either blue or green i managed to find an ore deposit and enmatter deposit that were right on top of each other ... so much that i didnt know which was which until i extracted one and saw the other.

so many changes in 5 years to mining the one constant is that noone has managed to "beat" the system. There are some truths to it all.

1. Some areas are always active- is it because its mined frequently? who knows i have mined areas completely alone and done well never seeing another soul mine there.
2. Skills mean something to your ability to break even. I have mined for almost 2 years doing maybe 1k-1500 bombs per 10 days and since i broke 3k in prospecting and geology some time ago i have never , ever, ever lost. Now i may have come back with 800 ped in or or less than the 1k but i have always recovered with % markup.

3.Chipping has changed the dynamic of the game. i havent chipped in any mining skills so i know for certain every skill i have and all the helper skills are a direct reflection of advancement in this game as a miner. What i mnean is that someone can chip in 10k prospecting but you cant be sure you are truly benefitting from it if your comp skill isnt on par with the growth , or perception or serendipity, etc. Thats one of the reasons why i wont chip in skills i dont want to skew my growth. Im not against chipping but i feel it could be a horrible investment if you do not chip alot of different things.

4. Minerals Migrate. Common minerals tend to remain. Rares have windows of opportunity - is it because of crafting use? is it because MA wants to control the influx of uber items crafted with say xer, platinum? Who knows.. there is not a single mineral in this game i have not found yet asid from the famed morpheus ingot.

5. Did the meteor event chang mining... in my opinion no. every mineral is where it always was.. how do i know. 67 pages of notes on mineral locations over 5 years tells me so.

6. Are theories worth trying - of course! 3 years ago i used to help Rattexx with his theory and there were times when he was spot on and times when things would shift to disprove it entirely. Should you take alot of stock in theories? be careful if you have found a mining strategy that works dont alter it to prove or disprove a theory. Youll find you incorporate it into your plans based on minimal success and forever alter what you have done before.

7. Is mining time based? - yes , why? - 5 years of notes proves so. The availability of certain ores have always come at certain points in time. For instance i used to find tridenite in a particular area on sundays in a 3 hour window. Like clockwork. although now they have migrated but i bet they spawn at the same time.

8. does the population determine the loot pool? No but i do feel activity in mining and crafting do replenish the pool. back in the beginning of the game crafting was non existent at best lyst, belk, blau were the order of the day. nothing else used to craft. Although minerals were available and almost anything else was tt food. I have ttd 600 ped of binary and platinum because it was useless. Thats the nature of the game. People were more concerned the game wouldnt survive to think of storing stuff.. but wait at that time there was no storage so you had to tt stuff.

9. Do tools matter? - yes! i will give you this much - what one finder cant find another can. Also dont assume it has to be a better detector. certain minerals live at all depths. some live only with in a certain range. How many times have you found a deposit at 115m depth with an of213? Think outside the box a bit. Learn what depth minerals live at on average and pick the tool to find them.

I could go on for days relaying theories and speculation as all people do. I have to admit i am very pleased that people still try to "figure it all out". I applaude the patience it takes.. For me it was all about discipline. Not mining when you have time to is very hard to do but in the end you save ped. one mans hof on minerals does not mean its your time to mine. Learn when "your" time is to mine.

What advice could i offer to new miners. Find the signs. I will tell you right now there is a sure fire way to find a deposit. I can take you to a spot anywhere on the map of amethera and calypso and find a deposit. the size is up to MA. Based on coordinates i have determined how to find a starting point to mine. Although after that one deposit i can never guarantee anything. I have given thought to taking an OA 109 and using the system to guarantee a find on each bomb. But to be honest it could go bad if each spot was a poor deposit .. i wouldnt really recover the ped. IM a chicken shit i know.

Stay true to what you know. Exploring costs ped and there are too many people in this game to spend ped bombing where someone else was.




8.

 

[The Nightbird]

very nice post windswept +rep, now if only you didn't post this in a dead thread ^^

 

[Turnsleft]

Why does predetermined deposits require a magnitude more space? If it is using the same database as the mobs, i cant see any more size increase than 2 or 3 times, unless you propose that there are 10x more deposits found each day than there are mobs.

Yes it is less to store if generated by drop, but it doesnt necessarily involve less server side calculation or DB access. correct me if im wrong, isn't generating small temporay data stores on the fly more of an overhead than accessing an existing large database?

I have to think that mob and mining DBs are seperate entities, we are dealing with a complicated system. However to get a program like this off the ground much needs to be made over the reuse of code, it reduces time and costs and these are 2 elements that would weigh heavy on a company like MA especially given its financial constraints in the early days. The underlying format for mob loot/spawn/etc is prob the very same as that for crafting and mining only with a few more attributes and methods.

Whats to stop a mining grid being cached and when the data in the DB changes ie claim_found_Attribute = true the cache gets updated? Isnt this good coding practise? (hmm EU buggy naaaaah )

The loot pool server is seperate. Well I think we can agree this is true due to lag, but that lag is prob caused by the communication between the two servers and then back down to the client (our PCs). Does it determine the claim size? No this is already done, what it does is determine the ped value of that claim, say between a min and max ped value for a large find.

Why are some areas dry? Well consider that a server has a limit on the number of mining grids it is allowed to carry (again an attribute that could be set by a balancing manager to provide reduction of DB overhead if required). Its fairly simple to offset a coord based grid system to jink the grid off its previous position set by the last 'respawn'. Mobs work in much the same way, grid based but on thier respawn the grid coords remain constant.

Theories r just that.. theories.

 

[The Nightbird]

AHhhh oh noes, necro necrooooo!

 

[H0tSh0t]

Well ur cycle, could fit for crafting too, how to explain those 101s crafters global 3 times in a row then nothing for 50 clicks then another 2-3 globals in a row, looks like a cycle to me

 

[R4tt3xx]

I have to think that mob and mining DBs are seperate entities, we are dealing with a complicated system. However to get a program like this off the ground much needs to be made over the reuse of code, it reduces time and costs and these are 2 elements that would weigh heavy on a company like MA especially given its financial constraints in the early days. The underlying format for mob loot/spawn/etc is prob the very same as that for crafting and mining only with a few more attributes and methods.

Whats to stop a mining grid being cached and when the data in the DB changes ie claim_found_Attribute = true the cache gets updated? Isnt this good coding practise? (hmm EU buggy naaaaah )

The loot pool server is seperate. Well I think we can agree this is true due to lag, but that lag is prob caused by the communication between the two servers and then back down to the client (our PCs). Does it determine the claim size? No this is already done, what it does is determine the ped value of that claim, say between a min and max ped value for a large find.

Why are some areas dry? Well consider that a server has a limit on the number of mining grids it is allowed to carry (again an attribute that could be set by a balancing manager to provide reduction of DB overhead if required). Its fairly simple to offset a coord based grid system to jink the grid off its previous position set by the last 'respawn'. Mobs work in much the same way, grid based but on thier respawn the grid coords remain constant.

Theories r just that.. theories.

There is NO resource generating database !!!

 

[aridash]

There is NO resource generating database !!!

on what evidence

 

[R4tt3xx]

I have an idea based on Nightbird's theory. When I was using my theory the average deposit size of all the hits that I made (which was close to 100%) was average. Every single time. If it was NOT average, I bombed again and lo and behold, the sizes added up to average.

Mindark is seriously running out of ideas with regards to their resource generation systems. That is a fact. There is a HUGE hole in using a timed system in the fact that the clock can be thrown away...

L8r

 

[aridash]

and what does that say about how claims (not values) are allocated within the system? little to nothing.

reading windswepts post above and keeping in mind a few others, im getting a picture of a system that hasnt changed greatly since inception. the deck gets shuffled but the underlying mechanics remain constant.

 

[kalanen]

There is a HUGE hole in using a timed system in the fact that the clock can be thrown away...

[* 1] [* 0.5] [* 2] [* 0.5] [* 1]

If only one player exists and always hits a claim when he drops a bomb (cost 1 ped) and resource of 1 ped is needed to move from one phase to another, he'd get 5 peds return out of 5 bombs and house gets decay of the finder.

Add another array and another player hitting a claim every time.

[ * 1 ][ * 0.5 ... (same array scaled)
[* 1] [* 0.5] [* 2] [* 0.5] [* 1]

Another player hits 2peds (when *1 and *2 are overlapping) but his burned resource of 1 peds moves both cycles forward, so another player gets 0.25peds with the bomb he dropped right after. And again, house gets decay.

Funny thing is that you can add same array to every ingame mining attribute and stack them: Universe, continent, area, ore...

And still house gets all decay.

Add thousands of players with different finder reloads, missed bombs, etc and you have a system that cant be cracked.

Tralala!

 

[Germanicus]

Generally referring to Nightbird's and other theories - the thing that might make them right is belief.
An example (partially based on my experience): (Talking to myself) -Man I found the period, buhahaha, I'm gonna be rich, 5 hits in a row. -Wait a sec, now 3 misses... yeah, the locations were blacklisted man, 2 hits, 1 miss etc... -average TT return 90%, I broke the system

Now doing my usual routine... same return, some other... same.

The point is, maybe it's not about some wonder-strategy, but mostly skills/fixed average return rate that MA wants us to have (which I won't ever prove, because MA holds all the cards, and this is not "a new mining theory" thread... and I can be totally wrong btw).

If somebody is getting good results with what they believe is right, fair, so my point is not to criticise people doing research and trying to give something to the community. I'm just sceptical, trying to be rational, as some other ppl, and express the fear that we only see what we believe in .
Regards for blacklisting idea, just not sure what is blacklisted though (location and depth / only location, maybe depth).

 

[OnTheWave]

Well, a nice theory. +rep.

Now so much time gone since the first post and bringing up necros... NightBird, do you still profit from this theory? Or not already? Thanx!

EDIT: Ah, just realized I can't +rep. Well I'm really a hatchling yet

 

[R4tt3xx]

Looking back on this thread, wow now things have changed, well not really theories remain the same.

Although many players are not posting their theories anymore for fear that the great Mindark will come and nerf their "illgotten" gains.

This will end in self-destruction

The seeds for a basic looting system have been sown and I am going to be in the thick of it...

OH YEA

 

[McCormick]

aahhhhh the theory !

 

[R4tt3xx]

Of course, I am this kind of person that enjoys pushing myself