Real crafting COS

[mchammer]

which success have qr 100 breer bps or amp (ore and enmatter) bps?

 

[Kerham]

smbdy hold my hand, 6 failure in a row out of 6 clicks on rare (L) bp , on qty, with green succes bar (not full tho).

 

[Etopia]

smbdy hold my hand, 6 failure in a row out of 6 clicks on rare (L) bp , on qty, with green succes bar (not full tho).

I can maque way more fail on full green bar on L BP ...
on leather duster coat i got 3 success out of 11 click...
And , i found thar BP while doing a run on fluffens golf pants , where on 22 click , i got 1 pants...

Most of time , i got several fail before and after a good found(BP or Hof)...

 

[Hally]

ya green bar is no succes guarantee but try do 1k clicks on rare and lets see if not the results are more even (i failed 8 in 8 trys on solir harness the other day so i feel your pain)

 

[Darkaner]

smbdy hold my hand, 6 failure in a row out of 6 clicks on rare (L) bp , on qty, with green succes bar (not full tho).

Sounds like me when I craft L armors. I just can't do it.

 

[Kerham]

ya green bar is no succes guarantee but try do 1k clicks on rare and lets see if not the results are more even (i failed 8 in 8 trys on solir harness the other day so i feel your pain)

probably ye but who on calypso has 1k clicks of adapted 125? or solir harness for that matter

I mean I'd understand on my UL bp p1a to have a streak of 20 misses (altho I don't like MA playing with up and downs so much) but on a limited-supply bp is bad :s

 

[GRoth]

I'm sure other crafters can attest, (L) bp's can be a real ped burner. I remember when I first starting crafting, I'd get a limited bp, and dang I was excited, because I KNEW I had some glow-bee spamming action ahead of me. But at some point that changed, and now it seems no matter where I put the slider, my COS is in the toilet. Lately I've heard some crafters note that after selling skills, the thrills and successes comes back. I've worked hard to get where I'm at, and I can't understand how that can be true. Maybe SIB should also stand for Success Increase Bonus... I'd better stop now, I'm starting to ramble

 

[Thriller]

ya green bar is no succes guarantee but try do 1k clicks on rare and lets see if not the results are more even (i failed 8 in 8 trys on solir harness the other day so i feel your pain)

That green BAR is THE MOST FUCKING MISLEADING THING IN THE GAME!
it has no bearing whatsoever on your success rate!

 

[Immortal]

That green BAR is THE MOST FUCKING MISLEADING THING IN THE GAME!
it has no bearing whatsoever on your success rate!

Provide examples pls. i.e.
green bar at 0, 10, 20,30,40

 

[Mischief]

30 fails in a row should happen about once in 20 million tries, so if that is happening very often, it provides good evidence that crafting is not true random.

Did that last night...usually have 3-4 fails before success or atleast a near success. Last night I started to count after 6-7 clicks and didn't stop counting until 27 clicks later.
And I have certainly not made 20.000.000 clicks so far and the run yesterday was a small one, about 1k clicks...

So the system is random, but definitely with a cycle...

 

[timmmers]

I can maque way more fail on full green bar on L BP ...
on leather duster coat i got 3 success out of 11 click...
And , i found thar BP while doing a run on fluffens golf pants , where on 22 click , i got 1 pants...

Most of time , i got several fail before and after a good found(BP or Hof)...

I would be interested to know what opinions are on this type of scenario ...Etopia seems to carry on through a bad run from the example quoted, at least sometimes.

Assuming materials and skills etc being no problem and all other things being equal and a (L) attampts BP. when do you quit in the 2 extreme ends of the scale:-

Starting out with good successes and possibly Globals....do you carry on and risk the run turning bad? Quitting at the current point means profit this time.

Starting out badly....do you quit and hope for a better run next time, or continue thinking that it will average out with good results ? Starting again later could repeat what just happened? Is it more likely to improve in one long run even if it begins very badly?

Just opinions...I'm sure experience gives clues on thsi type of thing.
I'd be tempted to continue and hope for averaging out overall.

t

 

[Stratos]

Had some bad experience with (L) BP´s to. I think the green bar indicator knowed from normal BP´s is not valid for (L) BP.
The green bar is a bit higher than for a "normal" lvl1 BP with QR100 , but i managed to click 20 times on it without a single success.

 

[Larethania]

A thing i find funny about craftin is that max cos is 42-maybe 60% even if you are up at lvl 100 in the required lvl but guns you can use at full when you have 10/10 hit ability.

 

[Immortal]

A thing i find funny about craftin is that max cos is 42-maybe 60% even if you are up at lvl 100 in the required lvl but guns you can use at full when you have 10/10 hit ability.

But.... you get more than what you put it... Abrer laser sight you spend 22 pedsTT, you win and get 110 PED item

with a gun you have a 1/10 (or less:figures somewhere) chance of critical=double what you spend.

Balance.

 

[DoubleWolf]

Abrer laser sight you spend 22 pedsTT, you win and get 110 PED item

I'm still curious about this, even after reading this entire thread.

So even on an item such as this, assuming full success rate meter and 100 QR for the blueprint, the COS over time is still 42% (or there about)?

And this rate has stayed constant for ALL blueprints since this initial experiment was conducted, throughout all the VUs to date?

How many clicks approximately would it take to get your actual success rate to even out to 42%? Obviously the more the better, but there's got to be a point where things start to settle in toward that 42%, right?

 

[Etopia]

Seems many mix the real cos with TT cos...
When real cos is about 42% ( number of item you get when cliking on quality) , the TT cos change depend on skill , and is from 75 to 95%.

 

[DoubleWolf]

I suppose that makes sense, since items likely get produced with varying quality levels, even at higher skill (just guessing here as I have yet to do any crafting)

So regardless of TT value, what would you say is a large enough sample (in clicks) so that the COS and "real" COS are fairly similar? 50 clicks would obviously not be enough, while 1 million clicks might be a bit extreme. Is there a point that things begin to even out? I imagine that the standard of deviation plays a large part in this...

 

[Vues3d]

Just don't forget that there's an issue with the (L) BP.
Have a look in the thread on this same page...

 

[Alfadur]

Hi there, first I would like to thank Etopia for these amazing tests.

I've been using the 42% success rate to estimate the crafting price since I saw this thread.

I've been mainly crafting components and some tools here are there.
Logging my crafting sessions, seems that the success rate is averaging at 38%. This in some 100 qr bps and other not 100 but with maxed cos.

Another thing is that the success rate I measured was on components; maybe stackables are different and have a different COS from non-stackables. I've done some more tests on tools, don't have enough data but seems COS is averaging too in 37%-38%. This difference of 4% would have a negative influence in the cost of non-stackables items.

Well I'm a noob craft which unlocked BPC recently. So low skills might explain the lower success rate.

Nevertheless, the sucess rate might have really changed in some VU, after the initial thread.

Would like to ear the opinion from more experienced users.

 

[Oleg]

Hi there, first I would like to thank Etopia for these amazing tests.

I've been using the 42% success rate to estimate the crafting price since I saw this thread.

I've been mainly crafting components and some tools here are there.
Logging my crafting sessions, seems that the success rate is averaging at 38%. This in some 100 qr bps and other not 100 but with maxed cos.

Another thing is that the success rate I measured was on components; maybe stackables are different and have a different COS from non-stackables. I've done some more tests on tools, don't have enough data but seems COS is averaging too in 37%-38%. This difference of 4% would have a negative influence in the cost of non-stackables items.

Well I'm a noob craft which unlocked BPC recently. So low skills might explain the lower success rate.

Nevertheless, the sucess rate might have really changed in some VU, after the initial thread.

Would like to ear the opinion from more experienced users.

Someone - I forget who - did another test a few months ago that suggested it was now 38% for the old non-SIB BPs, and 42% for SIB BPs when maxed (meaning maxed on the learning period and also on QR).

 

[Alfadur]

Thanks Oleg for the fast response.
In fact the tests I've been making are on non-SIB bps, seems I need to use the search function better

Once again, thanks for the clarification.

 

[Darkaner]

Hi there, first I would like to thank Etopia for these amazing tests.

I've been using the 42% success rate to estimate the crafting price since I saw this thread.

I've been mainly crafting components and some tools here are there.
Logging my crafting sessions, seems that the success rate is averaging at 38%. This in some 100 qr bps and other not 100 but with maxed cos.

Another thing is that the success rate I measured was on components; maybe stackables are different and have a different COS from non-stackables. I've done some more tests on tools, don't have enough data but seems COS is averaging too in 37%-38%. This difference of 4% would have a negative influence in the cost of non-stackables items.

Well I'm a noob craft which unlocked BPC recently. So low skills might explain the lower success rate.

Nevertheless, the sucess rate might have really changed in some VU, after the initial thread.

Would like to ear the opinion from more experienced users.

This is very interesting as it confirms that the CoS has been lowered on the non-sib prints.

I made that other thread Oleg mentioned (Link here), in which I tested the SIB prints.

(In my opinion, skills have nothing to do with success rate.)

So if we are to write some sort of timeline here it would look like this:

1. The beginning: All blueprints have 42% CoS when maxed.
2. At release of SIB prints: Old non-SIB still has 42%, SIB prints have something like 48-50% when maxed.
3. At some mysterious VU: non-SIB CoS is lowered to 38%, SIB CoS is lowered to 42%

My (conspiracy)theory is that 42% is some magic number in MA's calculations for how crafting returns works. As SIB prints are becoming the norm, they had to be changed to this magic number. This does not explain why the old non-SIB prints had their CoS lowered though...

 

[Oleg]

This does not explain why the old non-SIB prints had their CoS lowered though...

It kinda does, in the sense that the green bar is higher on a maxed SIB BP than a maxed non-SIB.

 

[Darkaner]

It kinda does, in the sense that the green bar is higher on a maxed SIB BP than a maxed non-SIB.

Well that makes sense I guess.

 

[Etopia]

from som of my test , the sib bp even when total maxed are at something like 38%
i have not tested again , but i guess the non sib are still at the 42%
Problem is test like that are very long to do

 

[WoenK]

My (conspiracy)theory is that 42% is some magic number in MA's calculations for how crafting returns works. As SIB prints are becoming the norm, they had to be changed to this magic number. This does not explain why the old non-SIB prints had their CoS lowered though...

Since when is 42 a magic number ?
I thought it is dead obvious that it is the answer to everything

 

[H0tSh0t]

I can only say that, I have to count a 30% cos when I try to find a profitable bp because thats what I get on the long run even with a maxed bp, dont wanna whine but crafting system atm is just fucked up

 

[WoenK]

I can only say that, I have to count a 30% cos when I try to find a profitable bp because thats what I get on the long run even with a maxed bp, dont wanna whine but crafting system atm is just fucked up

Question would be, how you calculate your 30% CoS
Even with a an SiB BP below QR100 i pretty much get what the graph says.
around half way between maximum and minimum CoS bar is 25% and that is also my medium success rate.
And after several ten thousands of clicks i know thats works best for me
if you only get 30% on a QR100 and maxed SiB than you do not do too many clicks.

 

[Etopia]

I can only say that, I have to count a 30% cos when I try to find a profitable bp because thats what I get on the long run even with a maxed bp, dont wanna whine but crafting system atm is just fucked up

I dont know what you do , but , the lowest i saw on maxed SIB bp , was around 38% on quantity.
I dont have courage to remake chart now , i will wait the new cryengine to come to do that job.
But the down to 30% , seems very to big to be a MA fault...
MA may cheat som % here os there .. but 10% they would say it.

 

[WoenK]

Maybe he really meant his return rate.
If one looks at my test done last week, those 42% might even be a bit too low (i got around 59% with generic leathers).