Did anyone really think that when we say "90% average return" that it was to mean no matter how long you play for, you should always have 90%? Or that your account balance should always be 90% of what you put in? I don't think anyone is saying that at all. So no pink elephant here. Just confusion by some people on how math works.
Let's illustrate:
Code:
[TABLE="width: 407"]
[TR]
[TD]Cycle
[/TD]
[TD]Ped Spent
[/TD]
[TD]Ped Back
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Total Spent
[/TD]
[TD]Total Back
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]1
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]900.00
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]900.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]900.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]810.00
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1900.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1710.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]3
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]810.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]729.00
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2710.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2439.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]4
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]729.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]656.10
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3439.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3095.10
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]5
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]656.10
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]590.49
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4095.10
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3685.59
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]6
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]590.49
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]531.44
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4685.59
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4217.03
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]7
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]531.44
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]478.30
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5217.03
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4695.33
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]8
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]478.30
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]430.47
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5695.33
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5125.80
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]9
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]430.47
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]387.42
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6125.80
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5513.22
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]10
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]387.42
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]348.68
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6513.22
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5861.89
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]11
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]348.68
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]313.81
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6861.89
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6175.70
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]12
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]313.81
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]282.43
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7175.70
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6458.13
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]13
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]282.43
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]254.19
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7458.13
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6712.32
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]14
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]254.19
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]228.77
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7712.32
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6941.09
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]15
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]228.77
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]205.89
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7941.09
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7146.98
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]16
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]205.89
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]185.30
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8146.98
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7332.28
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]17
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]185.30
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]166.77
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8332.28
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7499.05
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]18
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]166.77
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]150.09
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8499.05
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7649.15
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]19
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]150.09
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]135.09
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8649.15
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7784.23
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]20
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]135.09
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]121.58
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8784.23
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7905.81
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]21
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]121.58
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]109.42
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8905.81
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8015.23
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]22
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]109.42
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]98.48
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9015.23
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8113.71
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]23
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]98.48
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]88.63
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9113.71
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8202.34
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]24
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]88.63
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]79.77
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9202.34
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8282.10
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]25
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]79.77
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]71.79
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9282.10
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8353.89
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]26
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]71.79
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]64.61
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9353.89
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8418.50
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]27
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]64.61
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]58.15
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9418.50
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8476.65
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]28
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]58.15
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]52.33
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9476.65
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8528.99
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]29
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]52.33
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]47.10
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9528.99
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8576.09
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]30
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]47.10
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]42.39
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9576.09
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8618.48
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]31
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]42.39
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]38.15
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9618.48
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8656.63
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]32
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]38.15
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]34.34
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9656.63
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8690.97
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]33
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]34.34
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]30.90
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9690.97
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8721.87
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]34
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]30.90
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]27.81
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9721.87
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8749.68
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]35
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]27.81
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]25.03
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9749.68
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8774.72
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]36
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]25.03
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]22.53
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9774.72
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8797.24
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]37
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]22.53
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]20.28
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9797.24
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8817.52
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]38
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]20.28
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18.25
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9817.52
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8835.77
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]39
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18.25
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16.42
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9835.77
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8852.19
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]40
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16.42
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14.78
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9852.19
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8866.97
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]41
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14.78
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13.30
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9866.97
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8880.27
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]42
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13.30
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11.97
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9880.27
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8892.25
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]43
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11.97
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10.78
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9892.25
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8903.02
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]44
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10.78
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.70
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9903.02
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8912.72
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]45
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.70
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8.73
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9912.72
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8921.45
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]46
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8.73
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.86
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9921.45
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8929.30
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]47
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.86
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.07
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9929.30
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8936.37
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]48
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.07
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.36
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9936.37
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8942.74
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]49
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.36
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.73
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9942.74
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8948.46
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]50
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.73
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.15
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9948.46
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8953.62
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
So after 50 runs of reusing the original 1000 PED we started with, we are left with 5.15 PED. Does this mean we have a 0.515% return?
No.
Because we would have spent in total 9948.46 PED and gotten back 8953.62 PED in total. 8953.62/9948.46 = 90%
The only way your balance can ever be more than what you put in is if you loot greater than a 90% average return over time OR you are able to sell what you loot at markup. If you figure a 90% average return, then your average markup needs to be >111% to profit.