How long is the "loot cycle"? What's the longest you had?

[icyka]

Hi people,

It's my first post here, but I've been playing actively for like a year.

I already have a theory that I prefer, because it worked until now. It's the personal "loot pool" theory. That means when I lost enough, and/or played long enough I'll get a recompensating HOF which brings me back to like ~90% TT spent.

It happened to me twice already, the last one in january.
I believe in this because when those HOFs happened, I never got more than I spent, but strangely close to ~90% of my TT spent.

So my question is, what's the longest period that you were constantly losing and waiting for your über/tower, until you 'popped' and finally received it? Also, what is your average time in this waiting? I hope this average is not more than 2-3 months.
Please share your thoughts on this.

forgot to add: Am I completely wrong about this?

 

[sdragonfire]

max cycle length is in ratio with mob hp.

 

[humanwoman]

Well, 90% TT return is a theory itself and will hardly be ever proven.

Sometimes for some people in some profession at certain moment in time their return seems to be around this magic number, they state it on this forum and happily join the local 90TT club.

There are though many other players for whom it's not true at all, they've played for years and their TT return in the long run is quite different, there are no "restoring cycles" for them or those cycles are longer than the game exists or they have played.

From a practical POV, if the slot machine is guaranteed to give you 90TT back after some random time ranging from 0.1-200 years, you might just not live that long to see it, so even if 90TT is true that won't help you at all.

 

[ChairmanEdgewise]

Hi people,

It's my first post here, but I've been playing actively for like a year.

I already have a theory that I prefer, because it worked until now. It's the personal "loot pool" theory. That means when I lost enough, and/or played long enough I'll get a recompensating HOF which brings me back to like ~90% TT spent.

It happened to me twice already, the last one in january.
I believe in this because when those HOFs happened, I never got more than I spent, but strangely close to ~90% of my TT spent.

So my question is, what's the longest period that you were constantly losing and waiting for your über/tower, until you 'popped' and finally received it? Also, what is your average time in this waiting? I hope this average is not more than 2-3 months.
Please share your thoughts on this.

forgot to add: Am I completely wrong about this?

That happened to me as well my first year in EU, but then it stopped... I kept losing a lot but it never "bursted" again...


Hoping it will turn soon! =)

 

[Rumsponge]

Well, I once went an entire week with an honest 80% "No Loot" ratio. Then I got a "HoF" for 125 ped, does that help your theory?

GL with that whole 90% theory. Maybe you and R4tt3xx can figure out if hunting in spirals helps.

 

[Corey 'Greyfox']

okay just before my 22k hof I went almost a month with a 30%return.
My ubers in May/June last year came after a two month bad run. This was actually a 5k, 2k and 1k in a very short perioid of time.

I know that by the time I got those first three ubers I had deposited less then their total amount.
Just counting depos starting Jan 1st 2011 my fourth uber was around 75% return. Although there are vehicles and texture/paint jobs, and money depoed for free giveways/buying sweat on NI that I didn't keep track of so the the hunting return % is higher.

 

[icyka]

From a practical POV, if the slot machine is guaranteed to give you 90TT back after some random time ranging from 0.1-200 years, you might just not live that long to see it, so even if 90TT is true that won't help you at all.

That happened to me as well my first year in EU, but then it stopped... I kept losing a lot but it never "bursted" again...


Hoping it will turn soon! =)

Not so good news :S
Maybe after 1 year we are marked as addicts, who will play anyway?
I guess I was too optimistic.

 

[Few Scars]

I have been playing 2 years now and the biggest global I have had hunting is 600Ped back in the last longtooth migration. One thing I think is important is how much you spend on ammo, probes, bombs and decay repair vs buying items from auction. I think my lack of globals and HOFs are due to the fact most money I spend in game is on auction and not the ammo etc which MA makes money on. But saying that you can go months without a global and suddenly get 3 in 30 mins....its an odd system

 

[Corey 'Greyfox']

Not so good news :S
Maybe after 1 year we are marked as addicts, who will play anyway?
I guess I was too optimistic.

Doubt it, I was here for almost a year before my first global. That was 125 ped Lyst(give or take) of Feb 14 2010. If I remember right I creates my account in late March/early April of 2009

 

[icyka]

Hmm, thanks for all the info, I'll try to use less amps and more bombs then.

But this picture just came to my mind.
(9000 hours in paint)

 

[John BD]

loot cycle, well never got anything decent after i withdrew becouse i saw no other rl sollution.
maybe the system whent panicy when it saw i actualy took cash out and decided not to return anything ever anymore

 

[R4tt3xx]

The "loot cycle" as you have put it.... Mindark is not going to like what I am going to type as well as a lot of others are going to hate the idea, is related to something that I have just recently seen and noted.

If I deposit $10, I obtain about 95 ped for that amount, thats a 5% transaction fee, for turning a resource (my $$$) into PED (another resource). If that keeps on happening and I keep on "cycling" one resource into another it will eventually give out. For each "transaction" I would have to pay 5%. In order to keep this cycle going, I would have to acquire more PED. I would then have to deposit in order to supplement this decay or sell acquired resources.

It's like buying time essentially, but each time when we use that time we have 5% less of it remaining in addition to the time spent. You can think of it as a "tax"

The rate of conversion from one resource type to another is not at a constant rate, but will even out at about 25% of the total transactions performed, after that point, you will get very little resources for your ped.

PEDs buy us what we want in the game, actions, it gives us the ability to change the world and for that ability, there is a cost that must be paid to the platform provider.

I think I also know where this idea came from, it's one mmos way to combat gold sellers, one player "buys" subscription time by selling his in game acquired currency, the other person uses subscription time in order to buy currency. I do not think that I need to say which MMO it is, in this thread.

There are a host of other similarities between this mmo and EU, including a skill system, hunting, mining, trading and crafting, missions, blah, blah, blah the list goes on as well as a transaction tax on any task, any resource is taxed.

 

[ermik]

well , the loot cycle is based on the mob hp , if you cycle 10k ped on daikiba young im sure you will start seeing a good avg 90% return if you use good gear for the job.

this also mesn that if you cycle 20k each on fresc,levithan,proteron and dasp you will most likely loose your ass off , however if you instead cycle 80k on just fresc , you will get the same experience as in the daikiba example.

i was afraid of hunting , since i lost alot since i started 2006 , but i gave it a try , and i will never look back.

go hardcore on a mob your pedcard can handle a 4000 mob killed cycle on , you will be suprised when you realise how it all works.

cheers


ermik

 

[SODERD]

Long periods of bad loot has passed yes.
And short periods of good

but im close to the 90TT club to...

Its all about the right gun on the right mob at the right time.
Find out what works for you will cost some but will save you peds in hte long run.

Move around try mobs and guns untill you find a working setup.
when that setup doesnt work anymore start all over.

the periods of bad loot on wrong mob with a gun that doesnt suit you might last forever...

For me apis is a losing gun... so i keep away from it if i dont team.

 

[CycoKick]

Lost 15 k on a craftin one night 3 days later got a 13,5k hog hunting hof ><

But I got to say im im in need of a massive tower to get back to 90% tt.

 

[icyka]

Thanks for all your answers, now I surely got more confused.

I mainly asked this because I had low returns in crafting, but managed to compensate it a little bit by finding some good BPs. So I thought that actually on the long run I didn't lose much, because many of the peds that disappeared are just 'on hold' that I get back later if I keep playing, plus the good markup on the looted BPs should help also.

But after reading your posts I'm now not sure I'll get back those 'on hold' (lost) peds, which makes me want to consider quitting for a while.

 

[Immortal]

Ditch your theory. I can count 20 people who have had more than their share of megahofs and aths to last them 5 years before they even could get back to 100% return, let alone 90%

 

[XeroX2]

well , the loot cycle is based on the mob hp , if you cycle 10k ped on daikiba young im sure you will start seeing a good avg 90% return if you use good gear for the job.

this also mesn that if you cycle 20k each on fresc,levithan,proteron and dasp you will most likely loose your ass off , however if you instead cycle 80k on just fresc , you will get the same experience as in the daikiba example.

i was afraid of hunting , since i lost alot since i started 2006 , but i gave it a try , and i will never look back.

go hardcore on a mob your pedcard can handle a 4000 mob killed cycle on , you will be suprised when you realise how it all works.

cheers


ermik

what he said!
oh and after a while you might also get a little bored with the system when you realize that you can't really influence your tt return on the long run. Well it's not gambling after all.

 

[Davies Davies]

Thanks for all your answers, now I surely got more confused.

I mainly asked this because I had low returns in crafting, but managed to compensate it a little bit by finding some good BPs. So I thought that actually on the long run I didn't lose much, because many of the peds that disappeared are just 'on hold' that I get back later if I keep playing, plus the good markup on the looted BPs should help also.

But after reading your posts I'm now not sure I'll get back those 'on hold' (lost) peds, which makes me want to consider quitting for a while.

You should ask youself is it worth the risk, to spend a lot of ped to have 90% return.
10% or a lot of peds, usualy is a lot of peds.
If you cant loot something special you can sell for a good price, at a fairy regulair base.
You will loose a lot.
Better downgrade right now and try to figure out how to compensate that 10% losses.
If you cant , I welcome you at Nea's fertilse station

 

[Dblood1]

To hit 90% at this moment I need a big ass ATH, and I dont think that´ll be coming anytime soon.

In hunting so far im on 82% return, in mining at 79% return past 12 month´s, so this "bad" loot cycle have almost lasted for 650-700k ped turnover. Even thou I had good hunting return early in 2010 im not near 90% return overall

 

[lilac]

Hi people,

It's my first post here, but I've been playing actively for like a year.

I already have a theory that I prefer, because it worked until now. It's the personal "loot pool" theory. That means when I lost enough, and/or played long enough I'll get a recompensating HOF which brings me back to like ~90% TT spent.

It happened to me twice already, the last one in january.
I believe in this because when those HOFs happened, I never got more than I spent, but strangely close to ~90% of my TT spent.

So my question is, what's the longest period that you were constantly losing and waiting for your über/tower, until you 'popped' and finally received it? Also, what is your average time in this waiting? I hope this average is not more than 2-3 months.
Please share your thoughts on this.

forgot to add: Am I completely wrong about this?

not completely wrong... but I don't think you can "count" on an uber simply because you've incurred massive losses.

the odds are sommewhat in favor of a good loot for those who spend a ton of ped... but that's simply because of the amount of dice rolls they try.

the odds might be a bit higher even for those who have lost a ton... but it's not like it's a high percentage anyway.

even if it were 50/50... you can in theory flip a coin 1000 times without it ever landing on heads...

 

[ermik]

not completely wrong... but I don't think you can "count" on an uber simply because you've incurred massive losses.

the odds are sommewhat in favor of a good loot for those who spend a ton of ped... but that's simply because of the amount of dice rolls they try.

the odds might be a bit higher even for those who have lost a ton... but it's not like it's a high percentage anyway.

even if it were 50/50... you can in theory flip a coin 1000 times without it ever landing on heads...

well you must understand that losses cant be considered as one single unit , peds lost to system the correct way will be returned based on a formula where 90% seems to be some kind of base when beeing eco and killing as cheap as possible. Peds looses that occur when you make a transaction with another player , is lost forever.

cheers

ermik

 

[R4tt3xx]

well you must understand that losses cant be considered as one single unit , peds lost to system the correct way will be returned based on a formula where 90% seems to be some kind of base when beeing eco and killing as cheap as possible. Peds looses that occur when you make a transaction with another player , is lost forever.

cheers

ermik

Any transaction is subject to tax, including the transformation of one resource type into another.

Transactions with another player follow the same rule, all the loss incurred by a player that has resources is transferred indirectly to the buyer upon the successful sale of the above mentioned resources. In other words the buyer will loose resources quicker than the seller.

Skills will offset this to some degree but I would hate to be a noob trying to use a huge @$$ weapon.

 

[Immortal]

Any transaction is subject to tax, including the transformation of one resource type into another.

Wrong

Transactions with another player follow the same rule,

wrong

Skills will offset this to some degree

wrong/vague

This probably explains how you never managed to win at mining, despite it being the absolute easiest profession and regardless of how ludicrous a theory you managed to come up with, then scoffed at people with degrees in mathematics when they tore apart your ideas easier than crushing a papercup underfoot.

 

[Shimmer]

Not so good news :S
Maybe after 1 year we are marked as addicts, who will play anyway?
I guess I was too optimistic.

You mean pay anyway?

 

[Rumsponge]

This probably explains how you never managed to win at mining, despite it being the absolute easiest profession and regardless of how ludicrous a theory you managed to come up with, then scoffed at people with degrees in mathematics when they tore apart your ideas easier than crushing a papercup underfoot.

No, seriously. Don't hold back. Tell us how you really feel.

 

[Majstorex]

Hi people,

I already have a theory that I prefer, because it worked until now. It's the personal "loot pool" theory. That means when I lost enough, and/or played long enough I'll get a recompensating HOF which brings me back to like ~90% TT spent.

So my question is, what's the longest period that you were constantly losing and waiting for your über/tower, until you 'popped' and finally received it? Also, what is your average time in this waiting?forgot to add: Am I completely wrong about this?

It is a matter of degree. It is like asking how many grains of sand do you need to a make a heap. The sample mean will approach the true mean as the square root of the sample size increases.
For purposes of putting a betting system to the test u need to be looking in the neighborhood of at least a million killed mobs, dropped bombs, clicks on craft machine...