FYI: How Loot Returns Work as Function of Looter Level and Efficiency, Based on Actual Data, as of March 3rd, 2022

[Deleted member 58836]

MindArk loves the number 7. You'll find it everywhere.

Thank you for the data points.

TT Returns:
~7% for EFF
~7% for Looter
~86% to ~100% Total Scale

Now onto loot composition testing of DPP and Item Roll numbers?

 

[atomicstorm]

Unfortunately, there are problems with this thread that one should keep in mind once you get past the graphs. You cannot simply just throw a graph showing correlation (which is true, btw - people have been saying that in discord for over a month now) and then come to a list of conclusions based on that. That's not how it works. You can propose theories (the final conclusion), but unfortunately, people here and newcomers and seasoned folks alike will treat it as gospel and go astray. The final conclusions make for a general baseline, but results WILL vary. You must keep that in mind and don't be disappointed when it doesn't turn out that way. You can use this as a general baseline but don't buy into paying your house value for a high-efficiency item. There are many ways to skin the cat.

1. loot distributions under 1x do not necessarily correlate to overall net TT return. It simply tells you a rate of drawdown. (see #2) It is merely a snapshot of the overall loot rolls. A 0.5x multi is not the same as a 0.5x multi in the next roll, and so on - because of dpp. (See #3)
2. we don't know the effect of looter in a competitive space, but many folks (including myself) have seen drastic swings in point in time when hunting near or around people with a higher looter. This may or may not include the looter + eff additives or it might not. This needs tangible testing - and that is very difficult. However, the effects are very consistent.
3. There are multiple factors and variables to consider - we have no idea if there are kickback mechanisms at play that account for the frequency of the upper band of multis. I can also tell you that the band of multis differ between mobs. That is the fun of doing data analysis and discovery.

Not everything is black and white nor is it entirely complicated.

 

[Art Jennifer]

This is great research and all. However I really think you lot over complicate this.

The loot system won’t (to some degree can’t) be this complex.

 

[Slyk]

This is great research and all. However I really think you lot over complicate this.

The loot system won’t (to some degree can’t) be this complex.

Statement with no substance. Care to elaborate why and explain your analysis and data points of the loot system futher? Also, please heavily elaborate on the 'can't' portion.

 

[Art Jennifer]

Statement with no substance. Care to elaborate why and explain your analysis and data points of the loot system futher? Also, please heavily elaborate on the 'can't' portion.

You just proved my point with this.
Although I assume this is sarcasm..
Overthinking

 

[Rocket192]

anyone who cycles hundreds of thousands of ped every month could have told you about the linear correlation between looter and efficiency. but as i'm sure others are going to point out, looking at baseline multipliers on a loot-by-loot event is only going to give you a partial answer without a lot of assumptions being made. but if nothing else, it helps show how eff/looter can help stave off losses in the short term.

regardless thanks for the effort on this study and hopefully it keeps some people out of the "all hail lootius," "depo to get hofs," and other tinfoil hat theories.

 

[Gopher]

anyone who cycles hundreds of thousands of ped every month could have told you about the linear correlation between looter and efficiency. but as i'm sure others are going to point out, looking at baseline multipliers on a loot-by-loot event is only going to give you a partial answer without a lot of assumptions being made. but if nothing else, it helps show how eff/looter can help stave off losses in the short term.

regardless thanks for the effort on this study and hopefully it keeps some people out of the "all hail lootius," "depo to get hofs," and other tinfoil hat theories.

People actually think lootius isnt a meme? lol

 

[Slyk]

You just proved my point with this.
Although I assume this is sarcasm..
Overthinking

I proved a point, which was never made, because you never actually stated anything. What did I prove by questioning you, that you have no answer? Yes I think so too.

 

[DonJunior]

Thankyou for the data, just what I was looking for.

As a new player it is obviously futile being a hunter. Low level looter is a HUGE handicap. I will just invest in deeds and let others lose money playing.

 

[DonJunior]

So, when Mindark introduced the looter profession they lowered the base return rate and made returns worse for new players? To my beginner eye it looks like the game was more balanced and fair to new and mid level players when only weapon eff was taken into account and 1-2% was the difference between most players.

 

[Alainax]

So, when Mindark introduced the looter profession they lowered the base return rate and made returns worse for new players? To my beginner eye it looks like the game was more balanced and fair to new and mid level players when only weapon eff was taken into account and 1-2% was the difference between most players.

There was only 6 months or so between loot 2.0 being introduced, with the promise that looter professions would be added also, and them actually being added. They also "initiated a temporary test in which the MindArk fee for hunting was lowered significantly. In the long term, we hope that a lower MindArk fee will result in increased overall activity and new participant retention, and thereby compensate for the lower short-term revenue."

Prior to that loot 1.0 was volatile as hell, " Loot 2.0 drastically lowered the costs for armor decay and healing, which we can now confirm has led to a substantial increase in the usage of those mechanics. This is an example of the type of positive changes we are hoping to identify and implement in other systems: changes that benefit participants (in terms of lower cost to play) as well as MindArk’s revenue, resulting in a better overall gameplay experience and growth of Entropia Universe."

Efficiency and looter have always went hand in hand in loot 2.0, just that efficiency was the easier to test until enough avatars got to high enough looter levels to show how it worked too. Hence high eff became the holy grail and looter became a legendary story.

I think this part @San said is important.

About the disadvantage of lower levels, there is one advantage also: Since progress gets harder exponentially, your throughput for getting past the first levels is by orders of magnitude smaller than for the later ones. Also, your chances of getting better markup for your loot are much higher at the small quantities produced there. They don't scale up well once you arrive at needing to unload thousands of peds worth of common stackables quickly. Therefore, the same still applies as already before the loot system change, it's the mid levels paying the most.

There has to be progression in the game, there has to be a reason to want to get better, to skill up - and looter is one of them. Efficiency is a way to mitigate whilst you skill, with the hope of coupling them back together when you get there. In the lower and mid levels ( of which I count myself!) is where you work out all the other aspects of optimising loot. If eff and looter didn't exist, by the time you get to the higher levels with the massive cycles these guys do, and exponential difference in levelling, there would be not much point to try to get there.

The loot 2.0 devs notes are all out there, and both eff and looter levels were always a part of loot 2.0, as they wrote. Nice to seem some concrete figures though Zho, ty I will keep trying to convince JBK to take part in the study

 

[DonJunior]

Thanks for the reply bonnie. Yes, what you say makes sense. But the cost to get to a position to break even in hunting is extreme to my rough calculations (expensive weapon and looter profession). I'll focus on deed investments and crafting from now on. Thankyou to Zho for saving me some deposits. Hunting looks like the "sucker" profession to keep everyone else in profit.

 

[Jhereg]

Unfortunately, there are problems with this thread that one should keep in mind once you get past the graphs. You cannot simply just throw a graph showing correlation (which is true, btw - people have been saying that in discord for over a month now) and then come to a list of conclusions based on that. That's not how it works. You can propose theories (the final conclusion), but unfortunately, people here and newcomers and seasoned folks alike will treat it as gospel and go astray. The final conclusions make for a general baseline, but results WILL vary. You must keep that in mind and don't be disappointed when it doesn't turn out that way. You can use this as a general baseline but don't buy into paying your house value for a high-efficiency item. There are many ways to skin the cat.

1. loot distributions under 1x do not necessarily correlate to overall net TT return. It simply tells you a rate of drawdown. (see #2) It is merely a snapshot of the overall loot rolls. A 0.5x multi is not the same as a 0.5x multi in the next roll, and so on - because of dpp. (See #3)
2. we don't know the effect of looter in a competitive space, but many folks (including myself) have seen drastic swings in point in time when hunting near or around people with a higher looter. This may or may not include the looter + eff additives or it might not. This needs tangible testing - and that is very difficult. However, the effects are very consistent.
3. There are multiple factors and variables to consider - we have no idea if there are kickback mechanisms at play that account for the frequency of the upper band of multis. I can also tell you that the band of multis differ between mobs. That is the fun of doing data analysis and discovery.

Not everything is black and white nor is it entirely complicated.

Responses:

1) The multiplier is returned peds divided by kill cost. Therefore, if the probability distribution of multipliers is the same between mobs (of same type), a 0.5x multi on one mob is the same as one on another mob.
2) My data suggests there is no competitive element to looter, if you consider that robot looter (which most are lower at) is on a line with animal looter and mutant looter. What you suggest is based on your beliefs and feelings, and not data.
3) Your statement is again based on beliefs and feelings and not data.

I have not much else to say except this:

I provided data that showed very specific progression in tt return increase with increased efficiency and looter. People can interpret it how they would like. However, usually the simplest answer is the right one, and a simple scaling factor on top of the same loot probability distribution for everyone is the easiest/simplest solution, which is what my data would extrapolate to. Perhaps at some point, I'll make a post about how to build a loot engine that mimics EU's. It isn't hard, it is just a multiplier probability distribution scaled by looter and efficiency.

Your suggestions are based on beliefs and feelings. It is akin to ascribing to the perception global theory.

 

[Jhereg]

anyone who cycles hundreds of thousands of ped every month could have told you about the linear correlation between looter and efficiency. but as i'm sure others are going to point out, looking at baseline multipliers on a loot-by-loot event is only going to give you a partial answer without a lot of assumptions being made. but if nothing else, it helps show how eff/looter can help stave off losses in the short term.

regardless thanks for the effort on this study and hopefully it keeps some people out of the "all hail lootius," "depo to get hofs," and other tinfoil hat theories.

Looking at baseline multipliers, we can extrapolate to the larger multipliers.

Two players have the same chance to hit a 2000x multiplier. But if one player can get 2% more TT from eff/looter, one player who get 2000 peds, the other will get 2040 peds (assuming 1 ped kill cost). And that is where the difference in tt return comes from.

 

[Ferial]

As a new player it is obviously futile being a hunter. Low level looter is a HUGE handicap. I will just invest in deeds and let others lose money playing.

As it always has been, and should be (imo). With the caveat that before it was only "Low DPP is a HUGE handicap" (it still is btw), now it´s that, as well as low level looter is a huge handicap and low efficiency is a huge handicap. Low DPS is also a huge handicap. You can make it work as a new hunter. It does however take a bit of work. Then again, if you can´t make it work for the early levels there´s no way you´ll make it through mid-levels with your credit card intact

Efficiency and looter have always went hand in hand in loot 2.0, just that efficiency was the easier to test until enough avatars got to high enough looter levels to show how it worked too

While true, i´d like to point out that testing most things in this game is easy, just time and/or money consuming. Testing looter is not hard, just time-consuming.

@zho
How well does your returns match the proposed table? I am 1-1.1% up in 1 mill cycle, and want to know if I should stop shooting immediately thanks

 

[Jhereg]

Just to put it out there. This thread was in no way meant to discourage people hunting/depositing.

What I am trying to provide is some transparency in return trends based on your looter and eff.

With codex and skill pills and some smart hunting, I think looter can be brought to a decent level quite quickly. But it does require some legwork in terms of understanding skill gain and what to hunt.

MU is king. If you can pay most of your hunting cost from MU, that's ideal.

I also recommend going high eff if you can and are going to grind looter up. A lot of ped are saved during skill up if you can do it at higher efficiency.

Basically try to get looter up in level as cheaply as you can.

I'm also trying to get past a lot of the posts telling people, "Hunt more" etc that really isn't particularly constructive.

 

[DonJunior]

As it always has been, and should be (imo). With the caveat that before it was only "Low DPP is a HUGE handicap" (it still is btw), now it´s that, as well as low level looter is a huge handicap and low efficiency is a huge handicap. Low DPS is also a huge handicap. You can make it work as a new hunter. It does however take a bit of work. Then again, if you can´t make it work for the early levels there´s no way you´ll make it through mid-levels with your credit card intact

Fair enough, though it explains why this game only gets 100 viewers max on twitch channels when new players are expected to 100% lose money to cover the losses of the longterm players who went before them. Kinda reminds me of the famous monuments in Egypt. There is no way to 'make it work for you' when you are at 93% tt return. Surely the odds shouldnt be so stacked against new players.

 

[Sulje]

Different avatars will always have different results.

 

[Jhereg]

Looter is like efficiency, but for your avatar

 

[Jhereg]

This is great research and all. However I really think you lot over complicate this.

The loot system won’t (to some degree can’t) be this complex.

I would argue, what I present is the simplest way the loot system would work. All other theories are way more complicated.

 

[Ferial]

Fair enough, though it explains why this game only gets 100 viewers max on twitch channels when new players are expected to 100% lose money to cover the losses of the longterm players who went before them. Kinda reminds me of the famous monuments in Egypt.

You don´t have to lose any money playing this game, there are a few stories of non-depo/low-depo players succeeding in this game, and I believe it is still possible, it just takes a lot of work. One example: https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forum/index.php?threads/natural-level-100-on-66-usd.279312/

 

[DonJunior]

I would argue, what I present is the simplest way the loot system would work. All other theories are way more complicated.

I believe 'MeLoveYou LongTime FiveDolla' has previously posted (his hunt log thread page 5) he knew how the looter profession works and 'may' publish the data. Not sure if he did, but I guess his data contradicts what you posted.

 

[Jhereg]

I believe 'MeLoveYou LongTime FiveDolla' has previously posted (his hunt log thread page 5) he knew how the looter profession works and 'may' publish the data. Not sure if he did, but I guess his data contradicts what you posted.

In which case, I'll be happy to see what he has once he posts it.

 

[Deleted member 58836]

Thanks for the reply bonnie. Yes, what you say makes sense. But the cost to get to a position to break even in hunting is extreme to my rough calculations (expensive weapon and looter profession). I'll focus on deed investments and crafting from now on. Thankyou to Zho for saving me some deposits. Hunting looks like the "sucker" profession to keep everyone else in profit.

You can profit playing with the free gear the game gives, it's just not worth your time in the short term to do so. In the long term, your character will level up and if you save those peds and upgrade your gear you'll start to see the same time commitment return more raw peds in profit.

Example of 90% return efficiency/looter combo:

1 hour grinding
100ped in
90ped out
11ped from markup
1ped profit ($0.10)

10x that...
1000ped in
900ped out
110ped markup
10ped profit ($1.00)

100x
10000ped in
9000ped out
1100ped markup
100ped profit ($10.00)

This is an example as well as assuming you're able to cycle that amount of peds and can find an average 11% in markup but makes the point. You have to keep in mind that you're also exposing yourself to the slot machine mechanic which can score you a massive multiplier putting you well into TT profit until the rakeback happens, on top of exposing yourself to potential rare loot finds that might come with massive markup pushing you over the 11% average from the example. As you gain looter level, learn what missions/mobs to chase and upgrade your gear, you start to decrease the volatility in TT returns and increase the chances of jackpots(slot machine + markup loot) at the same time as lowering the time commitment needed.

It all starts to "fall into place" so to speak...

Entropia is a game of trying to decrease Entropy.

 

[Jhereg]

As it always has been, and should be (imo). With the caveat that before it was only "Low DPP is a HUGE handicap" (it still is btw), now it´s that, as well as low level looter is a huge handicap and low efficiency is a huge handicap. Low DPS is also a huge handicap. You can make it work as a new hunter. It does however take a bit of work. Then again, if you can´t make it work for the early levels there´s no way you´ll make it through mid-levels with your credit card intact


While true, i´d like to point out that testing most things in this game is easy, just time and/or money consuming. Testing looter is not hard, just time-consuming.

@zho
How well does your returns match the proposed table? I am 1-1.1% up in 1 mill cycle, and want to know if I should stop shooting immediately thanks

I'm 96.8% TT return over last 950K. Below expected but I've also not hit a 2000x, so I don't expect to hit my actual expected return without it...sad lol

 

[DonJunior]

Found the post, hopefully you can both clear it up beyond any doubt.

 

[Msturlese]

Huge work.
As a guideline should I go with tier 10 mod nano with 85 eff (152.8 base dps) or tier 10 knife (122.1 base dps) with 94 eff or should I sell both ?
Also is level 131 looter acceptable or should I chip out some to adjust with my weapon?
Choices choices

my 2 pecs.

sell the mod blade for 500k because you engrave the "wielded by Messi" on the blade
sell the knife for 1m ped because it is unique

Buy that Coffee bar you spoke about with proceedings
mayne get a BP110 off vendor with easter tokens before..... just to get a 4 DPP item

More seriously on the number crunching 64 (armatrix) to 94 (lp40) eff difference is 2% expected return
and this is about 2 year that was calculated, and therefore also the impact of 80.000 ped / 2% = 4.000.000 Ped Cycle
BEFORE you "save" in expected TT return the 80k premium. at 200k per month it is 20 months to AMORTIZE IT
AMORTIZE means an indifference point if servers CLOSE and you loose item.
of course it has a residual value that can be 100k or 40k we dont know, but financially it is an indifference point.
with a 200k cycle it can be 4k ped saved per month. (you recoup 1/20th of the "upfront TT return" paid to the seller.

This holds JSUT IF number are correct the series are normally distributed, randomizer has a 10k loot events cycle
i think that the randomizer has longer cycles, i try to kill at least 10.000 to 20.000 mobs of the same kind (codex 1 to 25 in a row)

of course we have now the new loot log that helps to do the job.... i would propose a bigger experiment on a specific monster
an easy one, let's say Argo level 5, collect 10.000 loot events (it is a 85...100 pec kill) track TT return with one of the loot parser
and provide you :

name weapon amp ring1 ring2 enhused looter ttin tt out

with these data with weapon V2 from wiki can retrieve eff
a massive 100 files (1m ped cycled, 1m loot events) can produce a statistically significant sample ,

 

[Gopher]

You can profit playing with the free gear the game gives, it's just not worth your time in the short term to do so. In the long term, your character will level up and if you save those peds and upgrade your gear you'll start to see the same time commitment return more raw peds in profit.

Example of 90% return efficiency/looter combo:

1 hour grinding
100ped in
90ped out
11ped from markup
1ped profit ($0.10)

10x that...
1000ped in
900ped out
110ped markup
10ped profit ($1.00)

100x
10000ped in
9000ped out
1100ped markup
100ped profit ($10.00)

This is an example as well as assuming you're able to cycle that amount of peds and can find an average 11% in markup but makes the point. You have to keep in mind that you're also exposing yourself to the slot machine mechanic which can score you a massive multiplier putting you well into TT profit until the rakeback happens, on top of exposing yourself to potential rare loot finds that might come with massive markup pushing you over the 11% average from the example. As you gain looter level, learn what missions/mobs to chase and upgrade your gear, you start to decrease the volatility in TT returns and increase the chances of jackpots(slot machine + markup loot) at the same time as lowering the time commitment needed.

It all starts to "fall into place" so to speak...

Entropia is a game of trying to decrease Entropy.

11% MU on that small of a mob? lol now your reaching

 

[Rocket192]

So, when Mindark introduced the looter profession they lowered the base return rate and made returns worse for new players? To my beginner eye it looks like the game was more balanced and fair to new and mid level players when only weapon eff was taken into account and 1-2% was the difference between most players.

before looter levels were ever introduced MA had stated the mean return for avatars created on/after 2016 was 97% - this was in 2018, so it's really a moot point. looter levels only seem to matter if your efficiency sucks ass, but still appear to give you a boost when your looter levels surpass efficiency, such is the case with many 80+ eff weapon users getting worse returns at lower looter levels than their 100+ looter counterparts, but still falling around the 98% mark.

Looter levels are entirely unnecessary to play the game, or crucial, depending on how you play the game. looter levels are the get out of jail free card if you play like a complete idiot.

 

[Rocket192]

Huge work.
As a guideline should I go with tier 10 mod nano with 85 eff (152.8 base dps) or tier 10 knife (122.1 base dps) with 94 eff or should I sell both ?
Also is level 131 looter acceptable or should I chip out some to adjust with my weapon?
Choices choices

bukin and sweat.