FYI: How Loot Returns Work as Function of Looter Level and Efficiency, Based on Actual Data, as of March 3rd, 2022

Jhereg

Stalker
Joined
Dec 13, 2005
Posts
2,037
Society
Rangers
Avatar Name
Feng Huan SecretAznMan Zho
A quick preface.

There's a lot of bad information out there. As with everything, take what you read with a grain of salt. I've decided to share this, mostly because I think it would be fun to see what reactions I'm going to get out of this. But I've started to lose motivation for playing this game, because it has become an endless grind and because it was no longer about knowledge and science, but beliefs. "In God we trust, all others must bring data."
There are those who think knowledge is power and should be consolidated to lift oneself above the others. I think knowledge is power, but can be used to lift everyone up instead. The data below was the culmination of about two weeks of work and subsequent analysis, and a couple particularly helpful lightbulb moments. It was hard work, but without some critical thinking, we might still be at the "We need a million data points in order to get any real idea of your returns" phase.
Thanks to @miathan for providing the python script for parsing and tabulating the data, and @minim for their input in data as well.

Motivation: To determine the impact of efficiency and looter level on tt returns, and tease out any obvious trends.

Procedures:

Weapons with three different efficiencies were selected (92.5%, 62.8%, and 29.5%). Each weapon was run on three different mobs (bristlehog, drones, thorifoid berserkers) where I was able to hunt without armor and healing (using lifesteal). The distribution in multipliers were extracted and analyzed. The main region of interest of the distribution fell beneath 1.0x, so see the figure below for an example of such a distribution:
j21TbWV.png

As you can see, the multipliers distributions have groupings. By analyzing the mean and standard deviation of the most populated grouping (Between ~.33x and .63x), we can try to find some trends in looter/efficiency behavior...

Number of kills (samples) performed in each case is shown in the table below:
6yBTiUK.png


While I was able to get some really decent results by analyzing only certain multiplier groupings, or certain fractions of the multiplier groupings (e.g. the bottom 2% of multipliers in a group), it did become apparent that I would need maybe quadruple the number of data points to get data that was going to be clean enough. While this is not on the order of 1 million kills, this was still very time consuming and I wasn't about to throw another 5 weeks into this project if I didn't have to.
At this point, I realized that instead of trying to statistically analyze the mean/sigma of the distribution, I could take the very bottom multiplier I got out of the entire sample. and this generally behaved extremely nicely and within my expectations for pretty much all the samples. While not as statistically robust, I found this method to give me the best results, so this is what I went with. The resulting data is in the following figures and explanations.


fM4Delm.png


As you can see, at all the looter levels considered here, efficiency scales linearly. The slope here represents the impact of efficiency on the multiplier. If we take the slopes and divide by the y intercept, we get 7.25%. As MA has stated before, the expected efficiency effect is about 7% full range, so this value seems to align well with what MA has suggested before, as well as my previous turret testing when extrapolated out to 100%.

Teasing out the impact of looter is a bit more complicated but as we can see here, there's an obvious effect of looter levels on multipliers and it is very apparent. We can take the intercept and plot them on another plot. This would effectively represent looter impact at 0 efficiency:
DMWrF4v.png

I was quite happy to see that the points all fell on a line. I had some doubts about whether all the professions for looter fell on the same scale, but would seem that they do, which simplifies testing. To consider the effect of looter up to lvl 80 animal looter which is what I have, I take the slope here (.0002) (.000167), multiply by 80, and divide by the expected multiplier for animal looter at eff=0 (.2335) based on the previous plot. When you do that, you get 6.9% 5.73%. So the expected improvement from 0 to lvl 80 looter is ~7% 5.73% TT return, assuming this linear behavior occurs over the entire range. If we take this value and scale it for the entire 0-100 looter level range, it comes out to about 7.2%. We have no expectations from MA of what looter does so I have nothing to compare this against. But I can say that my animal looter represents a ~1.65% better tt return than robot looter...

It is quite interesting that it appears the impact of looter level and efficiency are approximately equal in scaling between 0 and 100...

Discussion (Take these with a grain of thought, as some of this is based on my opinion of what the looter system might look like extrapolated out to higher levels.)

Based on this data, it appears that both efficiency effect and looter effect are linear. In addition, robot, mutant, and animal looter all appear to lay along on the same scale.

Assuming MA had foresight based on what problems loot1.0 caused, I'd expect some capping eventually of looter level effect. (No proof of this, until I can get to higher looter level). But based on other aspects of the game having lvl100 as a max (eff, weapon reqs), lvl 100 doesn't seem to be unreasonable. Again, I'd have to test this as my looter level moves up.

Just for shits and giggles, I assumed at lvl 100 + eff 100 is 100% TT return. I built a table with either the impacts either being multiplicative or additive ( so looter effect times efficiency effect versus looter effect plus efficiency effect). Here's what it might look like...totally just for fun. While this represents the trend, I have no idea what the tt return should be at 100 looter and 100% efficiency so this is just a proposed possibility

<ERRATA'ed: NEW TABLE, taking into account 7% effect over looter range 0-100 instead of 8.5%...)
eOlJj3H.png



Hopefully, this will help elucidate some stuff about eff and looter.

Many others who have been willing to take the time to collect the data, and then to share it with the player base have come before me, and I hope there will be others who share this path with me. I hope to work with others to understand better the mechanics in EU in the future.

Yours truly,
Zho

20220303: Errata: Adjusted looter vs multiplier line to show larger number of decimal places, which reduced the amount of looter prof effect on tt return. I have updated the post to reflect the updates.
 
Last edited:

Nik-Elas

Alpha
Joined
Jun 4, 2007
Posts
586
Location
Sweden
Society
Deagleteam
Avatar Name
Niklas Negolas Hedlund
According to this i should be just below 93%, too bad that's pretty much spot on....
 

Eli

Prowler
Joined
Jan 5, 2006
Posts
1,304
Avatar Name
Elissia Eli Talor
Accurate... and that makes me sad.....:LOL:
 

Xanato Xan Kaso

Prowler
Joined
Oct 3, 2017
Posts
1,164
Location
Florida
Society
The Frozen Flame
Avatar Name
Xanato Xan Kaso
Can you make a TLDR note for the general populace that may not quite grasp what your conclusions are? (I obviously get it but I am asking for those in the community who may not....okay my brain exploded I admit it!)
 

Eagleeyes

Mature
Joined
Apr 20, 2019
Posts
33
Location
Outer Space
Avatar Name
Ellesinare Eagleeyes VanManchenburg
Thank you very much for sharing your findings, there have been so many myths and misunderstandings regarding avatars expected tt return rate over time. When Mindark introduced Looter levels, it was after they had published the expected average avatar return of close to 97%, which would have been accurate if just using efficiency and most hunters at close to 60 or so efficiency. Looter levels essentially reduced this average return by 7% until the Looter professions were raised, and while skilling them most hunters will be under 94% tt return until Looter levels increase past 50, assuming an average of 60 efficiency for most hunters. Buying a high efficiency weapon can increase your tt return, say from 60 to 80 by around 1.4%, but you have to figure in the cost of the weapon and how much you cycle to determine if this is worth it, and even with the extra 1.4%, if your Looter level isn't that high you will still have sub-par returns. If you pay 80,000 ped for a 2.0 weapon, and gain 1.4% tt return, you would have to cycle over 5million ped to recover the cost of the weapon, and hope that it's worth at least as much as you paid for it after that if you want to sell it. And even with the 1.4% boost, with looter under 50 you will still have a lousy tt return. There are some mobs that can give you over 5% mu return, but they are few and if overfarmed the laws of supply and demand reduces the price of that markup, so it is limited how much mu you can earn, basically you are hoping that everyone else doesn't farm the same thing as you are or it will hurt your markup returns. Once I realized that I was stuck at around 92-93% tt return with 60 efficiency and around 35 looter, I stopped hunting except during mayhem and once in a while for daily bonuses. I was sad and happy at the same time, sad that the game, which is fun to play, is too expensive for me to do for long periods of time, and happy that I knew what returns to expect so that I could plan accordingly. I can say with certainty that I have personally entertained a number of incorrect loot theories over the years, and they affected my behaviour, generally resulting in alot of losses. Your information is a great service to the community and I hope that it helps people to understand how the system works, from my experience your charts are spot on with the results I was getting with 60 efficiency and 35 looter level.
 

Jhereg

Stalker
Joined
Dec 13, 2005
Posts
2,037
Society
Rangers
Avatar Name
Feng Huan SecretAznMan Zho
I'm forced to make an errata already lol.

I didn't realize that I had too few digits in my slope for the looter versus multiplier plot. Here is the plot with more digits...

DMWrF4v.png

This doesn't change the overall takeaways from the study, but does mean the impact of looter on tt % return .is slightly reduced.
Taking (0.000167/0.233)*100. I get about 7.2% TT percent impact from 0 to 100 looter level (I was a bit surprised at my original analysis and this makes a bit more sense). This means that eff from 0-100 matches the impact of looter level from 0-100...which is quite interesting. Using 7% as both the range for eff and looter from 0 to 100, we get the following table instead:

eOlJj3H.png

I do appreciate MA's symmetry in this design haha..

I will update the original post with the changes
 
Last edited:

Jhereg

Stalker
Joined
Dec 13, 2005
Posts
2,037
Society
Rangers
Avatar Name
Feng Huan SecretAznMan Zho
Thank you very much for sharing your findings, there have been so many myths and misunderstandings regarding avatars expected tt return rate over time. When Mindark introduced Looter levels, it was after they had published the expected average avatar return of close to 97%, which would have been accurate if just using efficiency and most hunters at close to 60 or so efficiency. Looter levels essentially reduced this average return by 7% until the Looter professions were raised, and while skilling them most hunters will be under 94% tt return until Looter levels increase past 50, assuming an average of 60 efficiency for most hunters. Buying a high efficiency weapon can increase your tt return, say from 60 to 80 by around 1.4%, but you have to figure in the cost of the weapon and how much you cycle to determine if this is worth it, and even with the extra 1.4%, if your Looter level isn't that high you will still have sub-par returns. If you pay 80,000 ped for a 2.0 weapon, and gain 1.4% tt return, you would have to cycle over 5million ped to recover the cost of the weapon, and hope that it's worth at least as much as you paid for it after that if you want to sell it. And even with the 1.4% boost, with looter under 50 you will still have a lousy tt return. There are some mobs that can give you over 5% mu return, but they are few and if overfarmed the laws of supply and demand reduces the price of that markup, so it is limited how much mu you can earn, basically you are hoping that everyone else doesn't farm the same thing as you are or it will hurt your markup returns. Once I realized that I was stuck at around 92-93% tt return with 60 efficiency and around 35 looter, I stopped hunting except during mayhem and once in a while for daily bonuses. I was sad and happy at the same time, sad that the game, which is fun to play, is too expensive for me to do for long periods of time, and happy that I knew what returns to expect so that I could plan accordingly. I can say with certainty that I have personally entertained a number of incorrect loot theories over the years, and they affected my behaviour, generally resulting in alot of losses. Your information is a great service to the community and I hope that it helps people to understand how the system works, from my experience your charts are spot on with the results I was getting with 60 efficiency and 35 looter level.
To be fair, you would actually profit save the cost of the weapon you purchased if it retained its value after you made back your 80k from purchasing the weapon. Assuming you can cycle 5million over 5 years, and item returns its value, that's a 20% ROI. Of course, lots of ifs. But for heavy cyclers who want to grind, efficiency is certainly worth the investment.

I'm editing what I say above to say save instead of profit :D. I realize it is unfair to call it profit if you can't get MU to cover your losses in the first place. But it would certainly save you those peds if you are going ot hunt anyways.

The rest of your points are well stated.
 
Last edited:

Gopher

Guardian
Joined
Nov 20, 2021
Posts
238
Society
Victory
Avatar Name
Gopher Goofer Bless
Sucks that the lower level/new players have to suffer with shit tt returns, getting looter lvl up takes so much ped cycled its insane. I have 60% eff 22 looter and have about the 91.5-92% tt return. If I were to cycle 100k, thats 8k ped lost. Don't think any mob my level has a solid 8% mu so I just get fucked basically.
 

messi91

Elite
Joined
Oct 24, 2013
Posts
3,454
Location
Medusa Bazaar floor2, shop3
Society
House of Gamers
Avatar Name
Gaina "Messi91" Cristi
Huge work.
As a guideline should I go with tier 10 mod nano with 85 eff (152.8 base dps) or tier 10 knife (122.1 base dps) with 94 eff or should I sell both ?
Also is level 131 looter acceptable or should I chip out some to adjust with my weapon?
Choices choices
 

Katie Chalmers

Prowler
Joined
Oct 13, 2020
Posts
1,377
Location
Australia
Avatar Name
Katie Chalmers
Huge work.
As a guideline should I go with tier 10 mod nano with 85 eff (152.8 base dps) or tier 10 knife (122.1 base dps) with 94 eff or should I sell both ?
Also is level 131 looter acceptable or should I chip out some to adjust with my weapon?
Choices choices
Sounds like you got some questions. Hit me up if you want mentoring. Katie Chalmers in game.
 

minim

Elite
Joined
Dec 15, 2010
Posts
3,569
Location
Bergen, Norway
Society
Rangers
Avatar Name
Mini MiniM Mine
Huge work.
As a guideline should I go with tier 10 mod nano with 85 eff (152.8 base dps) or tier 10 knife (122.1 base dps) with 94 eff or should I sell both ?
Also is level 131 looter acceptable or should I chip out some to adjust with my weapon?
Choices choices
Would be cool to get some data from lvl 131 looter to confirm if it’s capped at 100 so you could start there and then you will know if you should chip out or not :p
 
Joined
Mar 14, 2015
Posts
98
Oooff I dread shooting in Easter Mayhem now, with my Robot Looter level. (Revised) Numbers seem to be in line with my log; 65.8% eff. and mostly hunted animals with looter between lvl 40-47, giving a return of 94.14% (ex. MU).
 

miathan

Dominant
Joined
Jan 24, 2008
Posts
409
Location
Sweden
Society
Rangers
Avatar Name
Alindrina Alli Golden
Oooff I dread shooting in Easter Mayhem now, with my Robot Looter level. (Revised) Numbers seem to be in line with my log; 65.8% eff. and mostly hunted animals with looter between lvl 40-47, giving a return of 94.14% (ex. MU).
Easter mayhem will pay the UE5 porting :D
 

Entropia Dao

Provider
Joined
Dec 10, 2021
Posts
112
Huge work.
As a guideline should I go with tier 10 mod nano with 85 eff (152.8 base dps) or tier 10 knife (122.1 base dps) with 94 eff or should I sell both ?
Also is level 131 looter acceptable or should I chip out some to adjust with my weapon?
Choices choices

I would actually like to know if lvl 100+ looter can compensate for less then 100 efficiency; assuming that the hard cap is 100% return.
For you it might make the difference between chipping out looter skills to make a quick buck or not.

For me, it seems not hunting is the way to win.
 

minim

Elite
Joined
Dec 15, 2010
Posts
3,569
Location
Bergen, Norway
Society
Rangers
Avatar Name
Mini MiniM Mine
I would actually like to know if lvl 100+ looter can compensate for less then 100 efficiency; assuming that the hard cap is 100% return.
For you it might make the difference between chipping out looter skills to make a quick buck or not.

For me, it seems not hunting is the way to win.
Tbh below 100% return has been common knowledge for a long time. MU is king long therm :) The total TT loss of a high looter player and a low looter player could (is often) also be similar since many higher lvl players cycle way way more.
 

San

Elite
Joined
Aug 5, 2007
Posts
2,737
Location
That freaking cold place (in RL)
Society
OldTimers
Avatar Name
Sandal San Tolk
Huge work.
As a guideline should I go with tier 10 mod nano with 85 eff (152.8 base dps) or tier 10 knife (122.1 base dps) with 94 eff or should I sell both ?
Also is level 131 looter acceptable or should I chip out some to adjust with my weapon?
Choices choices
From such a lofty vantage point It must be getting ever harder to take anyone else seriously. Don't you still want your café? When is it enough to make the move and realize your dream? Probably the only one left with anything to offer would be the mortgage advisor in your bank. I wish you success.

Thank you OP for this sincere and solid effort. It is reassuring to see it conform with expectations one could draw from official statements. There would be a problem if it revealed a major misunderstanding.

The question I'm interested in most is, what is the actual cost of getting your looter prof "up there". That is, leaving out fluctuating markups for loot and skills, how much do you need to cycle overall.

About the disadvantage of lower levels, there is one advantage also: Since progress gets harder exponentially, your throughput for getting past the first levels is by orders of magnitude smaller than for the later ones. Also, your chances of getting better markup for your loot are much higher at the small quantities produced there. They don't scale up well once you arrive at needing to unload thousands of peds worth of common stackables quickly. Therefore, the same still applies as already before the loot system change, it's the mid levels paying the most.
 

girtsn

Slayer
Joined
Dec 7, 2005
Posts
7,939
Location
Belgium
Society
Freelancer
Avatar Name
Girts Smilgs Niedra
Huge work.
As a guideline should I go with tier 10 mod nano with 85 eff (152.8 base dps) or tier 10 knife (122.1 base dps) with 94 eff or should I sell both ?
Also is level 131 looter acceptable or should I chip out some to adjust with my weapon?
Choices choices
sound like calling the work useless as of being so uber it does not matter
oh, it's meessi never mind :) egomaniac is the winners way

on topic, thanks for the always excellent work and glad to contribute to research with my puny 106 looter
 

TontonX

Guardian
Joined
May 23, 2007
Posts
312
Location
France (near Paris)
Society
LargeGamer.com
Avatar Name
Marco Magnifico Schiffano
Here's what it might look like...totally just for fun

Thank you for these little screens, i saved them on my computer, will prove useful (y)

For the low looter level i am (17 / 12 / 7), raising to high looter levels will certainly bring up many opportunities to spend my money :flip:

Good ! I was worried i could profit from this game.
 

PE freak!!

Prowler
Joined
Oct 30, 2005
Posts
1,495
Location
Germany
Society
The Unit
Avatar Name
Pamela MC-Brotaufstrich Brantsch
Huge work.
As a guideline should I go with tier 10 mod nano with 85 eff (152.8 base dps) or tier 10 knife (122.1 base dps) with 94 eff or should I sell both ?
Also is level 131 looter acceptable or should I chip out some to adjust with my weapon?
Choices choices
you better give em away for free.
I know someone who would be kind enough to take care of your items.

Regarding your Looter lvl. I would reccomend chipping out to a level closer to 69.

@zho thank you so much for this. very informative read :)
 

Tilli

Dominant
Joined
Apr 25, 2014
Posts
489
Avatar Name
garnet til alexandros
How many peds cycled it takes to get 100 looter? How many thousands usd it costs to get almost your owns back? Even if you get 99% back with 20k cycle you still have to pay 20$ everyday in tt loss. Is it worth to even buy your loot you get or is it foolishess to buy anything else than UL gun/bp/mining stuff? How many years you gonna grind this game? I think this game could use some auto-pilot grinder mode for people who dont want to sit on pc for 8+ hours everyday to benefit from their "investment" Is it worth it? I guess you all who have played this game for many years, should afk-farm mayhem with keyboard and take a break during mayhem to spend time on other things, like hang out with jesus ;-)
 

B-K-K

Provider
Joined
Apr 16, 2021
Posts
119
Location
Norway
Society
Holy Moly
Avatar Name
Kamonpach BKK Empress
How many peds cycled it takes to get 100 looter? How many thousands usd it costs to get almost your owns back? Even if you get 99% back with 20k cycle you still have to pay 20$ everyday in tt loss. Is it worth to even buy your loot you get or is it foolishess to buy anything else than UL gun/bp/mining stuff? How many years you gonna grind this game? I think this game could use some auto-pilot grinder mode for people who dont want to sit on pc for 8+ hours everyday to benefit from their "investment" Is it worth it? I guess you all who have played this game for many years, should afk-farm mayhem with keyboard and take a break during mayhem to spend time on other things, like hang out with jesus ;-)
Not sure how much you need to cycle to get to lvl 100 looter - But it would be worth it. You will never constantly make TT profit, profit will come from markup, but the closer you can come to 100% TT profit, the smaller is the gab you need to cover with markup.

If I was to hang out with imaginary people I would hang with Santa :)
 

addz

Elite
Joined
Feb 11, 2009
Posts
2,520
Location
Twitch.tv/KingAddz
Society
Freelancer
Avatar Name
Rocky Addz Harley
I've suspected this for a long time and spoken about it on stream a few times but never had a way to test it properly. Thankyou for doing the legwork and, and double thankyou for sharing it with everyone instead of keeping the information for yourself.
 

Bynkm

Mature
Joined
Sep 29, 2020
Posts
26
Does higher looter profession keep shrapnel to non-shrapnel ratio the same?
I have a funny feeling that looter professions does increase TT return in a weird way such as getting more "bonus shrapnel" instead of actual good loot.
Also minimum/maximum multiplier is not that robust, I'd suggest 25%-75% range for future tests.
 

Edward-James

Old Alpha
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Posts
987
Location
Austria
Society
SHOOT ´N LOOT
Avatar Name
Edward MrEddie James
Thank you very much for this whole testing and work done (y)
 
Top