Secret to loot

[Angela Draniie Cloud]

You didn't answer the question. If I flip a coin 10 times in a row, what is the chances it lands on heads at least one time?

.9990

Mathematically speaking of course.

Or approximately 1/1000 times over the theoretical forever, will you get AT LEAST 1 heads in 10 coin flips.

Scary how I did legitimately show a binomial distribution problem today.

 

[Tony T-Man Coop]

.9990

Mathematically speaking of course.

Or 1/1000 times over the theoretical forever, will you get AT LEAST 1 heads in 10 coin flips.

Scary how I did legitimately show a binomial distribution problem today.

Close, it is 1023/1024.

 

[Yazuki]

.9990

Mathematically speaking of course.

Or 1/1000 times over the theoretical forever, will you get AT LEAST 1 heads in 10 coin flips.

Scary how I did legitimately show a binomial distribution problem today.

Close, it is 1023/1024.

Now lets apply this knowledge we have to how looting an item would work! Tony T-Man Coop, if you were offered the choice between 10 lottery tickets that each had a 50% chance to win the jackpot versus 1 lottery ticket that had a 50% chance to win the jackpot which would you choose? Obviously you would want 10 lottery tickets correct? Now if we think about this in EU terms, who do you think is more likely to loot a UL item... the guy who kills 1 million mobs or the guy who kills 100 mobs? Does this mean the guy who kills 1 million mobs is guaranteed an item? No it doesn't it just means he is more likely to loot it because he has more chances at being the lucky winner.

 

[Tony T-Man Coop]

Now lets apply this knowledge we have to how looting an item would work! Tony T-Man Coop, if you were offered the choice between 10 lottery tickets that each had a 50% chance to win the jackpot versus 1 lottery ticket that had a 50% chance to win the jackpot which would you choose? Obviously you would want 10 lottery tickets correct? Now if we think about this in EU terms, who do you think is more likely to loot a UL item... the guy who kills 1 million mobs or the guy who kills 100 mobs? Does this mean the guy who kills 1 million mobs is guaranteed an item? No it doesn't it just means he is more likely to loot it because he has more chances at being the lucky winner.

This isn't simply the only factor, as I said too many assumptions being made. I told you I was making my own assumption in my comment that each loot instance should have the same chance. There COULD be factors and probably are that make this chance different than a simple binomial distribution solution.

 

[San]

Compute the probability that we'll have another 987 posts before anyone bothers to look anything up they spend so much time and passion defending wrongly.

https://www.wolframalpha.com/examples/mathematics/probability

 

[Yazuki]

This isn't simply the only factor, as I said too many assumptions being made. I told you I was making my own assumption in my comment that each loot instance should have the same chance. There COULD be factors and probably are that make this chance different than a simple binomial distribution solution.

Sure there are definitely possible factors to influence this, but all it really boils down to is basically what Ferial pointed out. Giving yourself more chances at triggering the event of looting a rare item will result in better odds of looting said item but it doesn't guarantee anything.

You aren't put on some special list of "this guy deserves a rare item" if you hit some magical cycling threshold which was the main point I was getting across in this thread. One person cycling a lot and winning the lottery multiple times in a row doesn't invalidate every other person who cycled a lot and didn't loot an item. (Not directing this statement at you btw just speaking in general)

 

[R4tt3xx]

I love how everyone compares the lottery ticket idea to how loot and statistics work.

People are making some huge assumptions in saying buying more tickets like the lottery for a given drawing improves their odds. This only works with the lottery on a single drawing where the outcome is a fixed result and changing the numbers for that fixed result does indeed improve your odds of hitting a jackpot.

People are assuming that the loot system has some fixed result that one must attain to get this loot and that previous attempts are changing your individual odds of a single loot instance. Ideally, and now I am making an assumption, every single kill has the exact same odds as any other kill to hit a jackpot (UL item or whatever).

No, there is a "skill" to it. I can now use my skills to predict where mining deposits are, when it "triggers" I can follow it to a vein of claims. If the trigger is the same for hunting as it is for mining, it may not be possible to predict due to the time needed to make the calculations. Read my sig for an example.

 

[R4tt3xx]

Sure there are definitely possible factors to influence this, but all it really boils down to is basically what Ferial pointed out. Giving yourself more chances at triggering the event of looting a rare item will result in better odds of looting said item but it doesn't guarantee anything.

You aren't put on some special list of "this guy deserves a rare item" if you hit some magical cycling threshold which was the main point I was getting across in this thread. One person cycling a lot and winning the lottery multiple times in a row doesn't invalidate every other person who cycled a lot and didn't loot an item. (Not directing this statement at you btw just speaking in general)

SO what you are looking for is a black swan event, perhaps some power law would help you.