Secret to loot

[San]

okay mate, but you said i was wrong and its about large numbers so you think you are right and im wrong, and i think you are wrong and im right. Guess we are both wrong and Mindark is laughing all the way to the bank

Of course they are, and provided they think it rational to wish for that to continue, they would be very careful to try anything that does not follow strict objectivity. There are audits looming and who knows what kinds of unpleasantry. Helping the bottom line by stuffing a little extra to known influencers? Sure, you can't put it past anyone to see temptation. Theoretically and technically, any degree of manipulation is possible. Would it be wise, how high is the risk? Maybe someone, someday comes to the conclusion it's negligible. Maybe this has already happened, but so do freak events in every statistic. And on the other side of the fence, how wise is it to believe such a thing, or anything? The moment you are convinced this is happening, the only rational choice is to walk away. But people aren't doing that, no matter how much they moan. If somebody were to say, I believe this is a scam and I quit and then acts accordingly, that is a respectable decision based on their judgement. What I'm losing patience with is inconsistency. And please don't take it personal, there are so many in the same vein. And in every game, club or whatever community I ever knew. The suffering caused by changing one's habits is greater than the discomfort of knowing you're feeding a crocodile.

 

[ProActive Mango]

Yeap i agree with you, the lack of consistency by players = less decay and taking breaks cuz they dont belive in the system and after the break they have to grind alot again to get up to where they stopped and thats why they dont loot items, its like you fall just in the front of the goal in every match and then calling it a scam or whatever, ppl need to decay more if they want more, very simple. Adapt or die and dont stop!

 

[ProActive Mango]

Mango can you type any positive comments ?

My post is not negative nor positive its just and observation from my side, it might not be right but its just a post meant for a debate about loot. Why do you see it as a negative post?

 

[ProActive Mango]

And yet both IMK2 TWENs have been looted by hunters with low turn over?

And yet i said you still have a chance of looting items, but you have bigger chance the more decay you do. Its still a numbers game and random stuff do happen but you have a chance to affect the system with skills and more decay to get more stuff.
But i guess you think looting items is 100% random or whats your tought about it sence you dont agree with my tought.

 

[Msturlese]

let's see....
Yasuki published a nice 1m+ turnover.. where is his twen this month?

why people can not understand randomness?

read Nassim Nicholas Taleb, "fooled by randomness" book... will open your mind

 

[Yazuki]

And yet i said you still have a chance of looting items, but you have bigger chance the more decay you do. Its still a numbers game and random stuff do happen but you have a chance to affect the system with skills and more decay to get more stuff.
But i guess you think looting items is 100% random or whats your tought about it sence you dont agree with my tought.

How can you "observe" that there are "special loot instances" or that you have to "grind back to where you used to be if you take a break" when you don't even hunt. Past results do not influence future results. A person cycling 100 million PED on a specific mob has the same chances as 100 hunters cycling 1 million PED on that same mob if everyones cost to kill were the same. There is no personal loot pool this has been said so many times by developers now.

 

[ProActive Mango]

How can you "observe" that there are "special loot instances" or that you have to "grind back to where you used to be if you take a break" when you don't even hunt. Past results do not influence future results. A person cycling 100 million PED on a specific mob has the same chances as 100 hunters cycling 1 million PED on that same mob if everyones cost to kill were the same. There is no personal loot pool this has been said so many times by developers now.

So what defines a UL loot instance then? Just pure rng? hot drops from devs at certain times? UL drops after x amount of mobs killed? Just cuz i dont hunt atm dont make me blind from what is happening. I dont have a feeling of it being bad or good. So if avatars dont get tracked, why is it when 100 avatars are hunting an event mob and only 1 avatar that has a huge decays and alot of grinding behind him/her get a gg drop? Ive seen it too much to have a guess at whats happening.
How is it that during a summer event 1 person looted 6-or 7 mod shadow pieces? is it pure luck or DOES it have something to do with BIG decay and payback for grinding and making MA cash`? hmmm.....

 

[Yazuki]

So what defines a UL loot instance then? Just pure rng? hot drops from devs at certain times? UL drops after x amount of mobs killed? Just cuz i dont hunt atm dont make me blind from what is happening. I dont have a feeling of it being bad or good. So if avatars dont get tracked, why is it when 100 avatars are hunting an event mob and only 1 avatar that has a huge decays and alot of grinding behind him/her get a gg drop? Ive seen it too much to have a guess at whats happening.
How is it that during a summer event 1 person looted 6-or 7 mod shadow pieces? is it pure luck or DOES it have something to do with BIG decay and payback for grinding and making MA cash`? hmmm.....

All you're doing is trying to find patterns that don't exist. If 1 person is looting looting multiple mod shadow pieces, are you just going to completely ignore all the other hunters that cycled the same if not higher? Does your rules for how UL drops work only coincide with whatever data fits nicely into your observations.

I've included a screenshot of the top hunters in the last 30 days, notice how out of the top 20 hunters only 3 of them have looted a high end TWEN weapon so far? What does this say about your whole theory that you have to cycle a lot to enter some kind of "special loot instance"?

Edit: Four of them now that Lunchbox found a TWEN unity weapon last night

 

[R4tt3xx]

The secret is, just as it has always been, right place at the right time. And that is not going to change.

 

[Sub-Zero]

It's all about placing yourself at a position and place where you'll increase your chances of looting an UL item. Big turnover i.e tickets (more than everyone else) once you are at this location for the longest period you can will increase your odds even further

I have noticed that during higher overall player activity (like during events) "the items" have a higher chance to drop. Like the "gates" are open.

If you want an example. Most Unity weapons so far have dropped from at L80+ mobs. I decided to go to arkadia few days ago and try some big kamaldon in order to target potentially the UL ravenger twen or possibly the keyworks unity.

Turns out I didn't target big enough. Since the keyworks unity was dropepd by a smuggler mech 2.
I've spoken to the player who looted it and he told me he specifically targeted this mob in order to try and drop it. He hunted it quite a bit last month and in only 10 days lost 20k ped. Since it's a very big hp mob you won't be doing a lot of kills. Some people hunted it solo as well before the item dropped just check entropia life.

Clearly they increased their odds of looting an unity item. The Cyrene unity drops from mech root so that's another way to target UL items.
It appears items like imk2 twen drops from any mob above L50 at least. But for unity weapons it seems like the highest mob you can do for the planet is the most likely to drop it.

For the twen armor, just hunt the waves consistently and try do as much dps you can to maximize your chances since you'll get more tickets for the same time.
The same applies to rings. Open them when you see loot wave only, you'll maximize your chances.

With all of this being said though. I don't believe for a moment that the system keeps track of your cycle and pays you out in items (return yes) but items no. It's all about your turnover (tickets) though, this it what increases your chance of looting an item since you'll kill more mobs than every one else during the loot wave.

 

[mastermesh]

For UL it's a crap shoot.

For item drops, mainly L, it does work that way, sort of.

There is multipliers. However, I have a theory that there's something like a 'time multiplier' involved as well. ... i.e. your loot after constant ped decay via hunting, mining, or crafting, could be 'slightly better' after 40-75 minutes of 'active playing' than it is after the first 40 minutes. Mechanics of it has never really been figured out completely by anyone, but just from my own personal experience it seems that way. Doesn't matter if you are hunting puny or a lot higher level mob or crafting, it just seems like there is a bit of a pattern there... there could very well be an entire system wide wave too, but I think there is a slight 'personal wave' involved and you have to be active x amount of minutes or whatever to have the capability to have the surfboard that allows to really ride the wave instead of having a wipe out when the wave comes crashing down.

 

[San]

I don't know how often one needs to repeat this, LOL. The system distributes money when it has money to distribute. The most perceivable pattern is hence in the rhythms of human activity, i.e. the times of peak deposits. Having both a large turnover and achieved high efficiency then puts a player at the greatest advantage to benefit from it, and this is how you see these outcomes. The impression of a "personal payback" can be explained simply as the result of stochastic distribution. It _can_ also be explained by supposing a more deliberate system, but it doesn't have to (Occam's razor - the additional server load also speaks for it.)

 

[R4tt3xx]

I don't know how often one needs to repeat this, LOL. The system distributes money when it has money to distribute. The most perceivable pattern is hence in the rhythms of human activity, i.e. the times of peak deposits. Having both a large turnover and achieved high efficiency then puts a player at the greatest advantage to benefit from it, and this is how you see these outcomes. The impression of a "personal payback" can be explained simply as the result of stochastic distribution. It _can_ also be explained by supposing a more deliberate system, but it doesn't have to (Occam's razor - the additional server load also speaks for it.)

No I agree, it pays back the pool, not the individual..

 

[R4tt3xx]

For UL it's a crap shoot.

For item drops, mainly L, it does work that way, sort of.

There is multipliers. However, I have a theory that there's something like a 'time multiplier' involved as well. ... i.e. your loot after constant ped decay via hunting, mining, or crafting, could be 'slightly better' after 40-75 minutes of 'active playing' than it is after the first 40 minutes. Mechanics of it has never really been figured out completely by anyone, but just from my own personal experience it seems that way. Doesn't matter if you are hunting puny or a lot higher level mob or crafting, it just seems like there is a bit of a pattern there... there could very well be an entire system wide wave too, but I think there is a slight 'personal wave' involved and you have to be active x amount of minutes or whatever to have the capability to have the surfboard that allows to really ride the wave instead of having a wipe out when the wave comes crashing down.

AH diminishing returns, yes been there, done that...

 

[Tony T-Man Coop]

I love how everyone compares the lottery ticket idea to how loot and statistics work.

People are making some huge assumptions in saying buying more tickets like the lottery for a given drawing improves their odds. This only works with the lottery on a single drawing where the outcome is a fixed result and changing the numbers for that fixed result does indeed improve your odds of hitting a jackpot.

People are assuming that the loot system has some fixed result that one must attain to get this loot and that previous attempts are changing your individual odds of a single loot instance. Ideally, and now I am making an assumption, every single kill has the exact same odds as any other kill to hit a jackpot (UL item or whatever).

 

[Ferial]

People are assuming that the loot system has some fixed result that one must attain to get this loot and that previous attempts are changing your individual odds of a single loot instance. Ideally, and now I am making an assumption, every single kill has the exact same odds as any other kill to hit a jackpot (UL item or whatever).

You are contradicting yourself here, as well as misinterpreting what others are saying.

If every loot instance has the exact same odds, then per definition killing more mobs gives a higher chance of looting. This is what people are saying. Kill more mobs, and the chance is greater that you "win"

There is a slight difference from that of a lottery in that there is a prerequisite condition for a drawing to occur in the first place, but that is a slightly dofferent discussion altogether

 

[Angela Draniie Cloud]

You guys and gals really want the secret to loot? Go jack off. Yall have so much pent up anger and stupidity. Go masterbate and your loot returns will be better. You'll stop cycling more than you can afford, on mobs that cost too much for you.

This is legitimate and sound advice. Get your stupid ass body hormones and chemicals in place.

For those of you who are 65+ years old, most of you, there are nursing homes and I hear they love Orgies.

 

[mastermesh]

The system distributes money when it has money to distribute.

This is especially true related to item drops in hunting, and in certain returns in crafting and mining.

i.e. When someone TTs a lot of resource X if the system has a cap on amount in game than the TTed resource will all of sudden be available for another participant that is active at that time in whatever profession rthat that resouce is in the loot table for to receive. This is particularly noticible if you are like crafting small time stuff such as filters and all of a sudden Auktuma or someone like that starts globalling like crazy. Their TTed items/resources start instantly showing up in small time crafters pockets if they are actively crafting at same time. Same type of thing happens if big time hunter sells a bunch of guns to the Trade Terminal etc...

However, that only impacts what 'items' or 'resources' show up in loot.

How many peds are returned in the loot is a different algorithm. For that waves are part of what happens... and I do still think a timed 'pay back personal wave' does exist in the form of a multiplier that hits at a certain time if player was active for x amount of minutes or whatnot. Double Shrapnel, etc. are all waves in one way or another. I think there's actually several type of waves that interact with one another, and it's like a percentage type of thing that dictates which portion of the loot table you hit. Planet Partners fill loot tables with certain items. All items in the table account for 100%. The percents they dictate a bit in working with Mindark, similar in a way to the way in a 401k you pick this % to go to that stock, this % to that bond, etc. where it all adds up to 100%... 2% for this rare item, 5% for that not as rare item, 40% for this, etc. for however many items are in that loot table.... the waves dictate which chunk of that loot table you've gained access to, and timing and luck factor in to the rest.

 

[Tony T-Man Coop]

You are contradicting yourself here, as well as misinterpreting what others are saying.

If every loot instance has the exact same odds, then per definition killing more mobs gives a higher chance of looting. This is what people are saying. Kill more mobs, and the chance is greater that you "win"

There is a slight difference from that of a lottery in that there is a prerequisite condition for a drawing to occur in the first place, but that is a slightly dofferent discussion altogether

No, you don't understand statistics. If the odds are to 1 in a million every single time, every single loot is 1 in a million, killing more doesn't make your odds 1 in half a million or 1 in 100k.

 

[Yazuki]

No, you don't understand statistics. If the odds are to 1 in a million every single time, every single loot is 1 in a million, killing more doesn't make your odds 1 in half a million or 1 in 100k.

If you flip a coin the chance it lands on heads is 50%. Now if you flip a coin 10 times in a row what are the chances it lands on heads at least one time? (Please dont say 50% lol)

 

[Msturlese]

remember that by definition ther is no randomness in a computer, and we use "seeds" of random that are picked to generate.
this commands that we are working on some "quasi random" environment.
Perceived randomness is higher than the one shown in the data.

Look at my EL page for craft od Dclass and for hunting a big amount of merfolken level 4 and 7 (50 pec per kill), 12 ped per click risk part on amps

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www.entropialife.com

multipliers are pretty standard, frequency is about 1 global every 200 ....300 kills, 1 hof every 200...300 globals...
well, i stop here.
open some statistic text., avoid student t, look at leptocurtic distributions and garch analysis of fat tails.... all will be come clear...

as i always say leptokurtic, left skewed and ethertoskedastic. returns can be plotted in advance if killing same kind of monster with a pretty accurate function
and that will not help you (or me) return are capped so need to extract MU to profit. (extractin MU = Sell our TTlosses to someone else, no free lunch here)

 

[Angela Draniie Cloud]

(Please dont say 50% lol)

As a Math Connoisseur, it's definitely 50%. Just taught my students that today. Either it happens or it doesn't. Class dismissed.

 

[Msturlese]

We love emotions, and negative and positive emotions trigger some dopamine in our brain
so.. we need to see extreme events and game design lead to Fat tails generator

This is a FAT TAIL distribution, that means that we have (LEFT) a bad return series more than should receive
and more globals than we should receive
Bad return lead to craving... (TEASE AND DENIAL) and swirl is like a relief (can i say orgasmic experience?)

But we SHOULD RECEIVE compare to what?

to a normal distribution of returns that is a BELL SHAPE or gaussian distrivution (coing lipping)

Because the distribution is left skewed to allow MA and PP take a slice

with the above in mind it is pretty easy to understadn how the loot system works without knowing the loot formula.
dont look at engine look at its effect
and this is all pretty clear in the data series.

@ TONY... this is why yuo are wrong. more events that can yield 30% to 9000% as a return will converge to what is the average mean or 98%
the more events the more we go toward the mean.

 

[Tony T-Man Coop]

We love emotions, and negative and positive emotions trigger some dopamine in our brain
so.. we need to see extreme events and game design lead to Fat tails generator

This is a FAT TAIL distribution, that means that we have (LEFT) a bad return series more than should receive
and more globals than we should receive
Bad return lead to craving... (TEASE AND DENIAL) and swirl is like a relief (can i say orgasmic experience?)

But we SHOULD RECEIVE compare to what?

to a normal distribution of returns that is a BELL SHAPE or gaussian distrivution (coing lipping)

Because the distribution is left skewed to allow MA and PP take a slice

with the above in mind it is pretty easy to understadn how the loot system works without knowing the loot formula.
dont look at engine look at its effect
and this is all pretty clear in the data series.

@ TONY... this is why yuo are wrong. more events that can yield 30% to 9000% as a return will converge to what is the average mean or 98%
the more events the more we go toward the mean.

I did not say anything about average mean or anything you've described here. I'm strictly talking about the chance of looting an extremely rare UL item, nothing to do with returns overall.

 

[Tony T-Man Coop]

If you flip a coin the chance it lands on heads is 50%. Now if you flip a coin 10 times in a row what are the chances it lands on heads at least one time? (Please dont say 50% lol)

Every single time you flip the coin there is a 50% chance regardless of x times of flipping.

 

[Deleted member 71093]

You guys and gals really want the secret to loot? Go jack off. Yall have so much pent up anger and stupidity. Go masterbate and your loot returns will be better. You'll stop cycling more than you can afford, on mobs that cost too much for you.

This is legitimate and sound advice. Get your stupid ass body hormones and chemicals in place.

For those of you who are 65+ years old, most of you, there are nursing homes and I hear they love Orgies.

been jacking off for hours now, loot is still shit


any tips? should i switch hands?

 

[Yazuki]

Every single time you flip the coin there is a 50% chance regardless of x times of flipping.

You didn't answer the question. If I flip a coin 10 times in a row, what is the chances it lands on heads at least one time?

 

[messi91]

Go masterbate and your loot returns will be better

Now everything explains why my loot is so good.
Thanks

 

[Msturlese]

UL are as it is easy to spot, divided by class of creatures
small ones drop opalo and going up more powerful items
bigger targets are accessible to less people due to stats required and gears required so... we will see top 100 hunters with a better chance to collect an item
not for some "obscure conspiracy" just because are few ppl that access the correct creature.
EIR3 loot off ZEUS... how many players can kill Zeus? not many... so there you go yuo see a top 50 looting it not because he is Blessed, just because was there.....
perception... Deception.

if candidate are Robots i expect to see Ron Ron to loot now or later
if are Kool Kats, Forgo is the candidate, and so on.....

 

[Ferial]

killing more doesn't make your odds 1 in half a million or 1 in 100k.

That is true. The chance for every instance is the same.

A lottery, there is q 1:650 million chance to win the jackpot. If i buy 1 ticket i have 1 in 650 million chance of winning the jackpot. If I buy 1 million tickets (of varying numbers) i have 1 million in 650 million chances of winning the jackpot.
Or 1:650.

Every ticket has the same 1:650 million. Together they have 1:650.

Noone (in their right mind) is saying "I have killed 1 million mobs, so my chance of looting an item on my next kill is higher". We are all saying (as far as I can see) that the more chances you give yourself to loot an item the better chance you have to loot an item. If you can't agree with the statement simplified to that point, I feel like you (like many others) are a lost cause for discussion