For fun just let us say the probability is 1 / 40000, pure RNG.
Even if there are waves you could still approximate it as RNG (if you don't actively "surf").
Lets define some things:
P_rare = 1 / 40000
P_norare = 39999 / 40000
N_boxes = number of boxes opened
N_rares = number of rares found
C(x, y) = the "nCr" function
With this we can formulate a formula for the probability to find 0, 1, 2, 3, rares while opening N_boxes.
C(N_boxes, N_rares) * P_rare^N_rares * P_norare^(N_boxes-N_rares)
So if you open 40K boxes the probability to get:
0 rares = 36.8%
1 rare = 36.8%
2 rares = 18.4%
3 rares = 6.13%
4 rares = 1.5%
The probability to get 4 rares in 24K boxes is: 0.3%
So either
@atomicstorm was very lucky or the probability is larger than 1/40K or using "waves" can greatly increase your odds.
Entropia is a game, not a casino simulator.
There are time intervals, both hourly and monthly.
Not everything is based on statistical percentages.
The longest time interval I think is of the order of ~ 2 months, and just as they "reward the game" at the end of the hourly interval, compared to your actions during the current rate... so it rewards at the end of this interval.
Just as we have a 7 minute hourly time interval during which the system balances you... so we have a weekly time interval of 5 hours... which works the same way... so we have a monthly time interval of 5 days...
It's not so noticeable if you don't pay attention, but just as not every mob gives you a good TT return in the shortest period of 7 minutes... there is no big difference during the weekly interval - especially since there are also dynamic spasms.
That is, since Rare Tokens are not Extreme Rare Tokens, it is likely that a player will take Two Tokens during the game's monthly time-spawn.
Since the game has some protection of its own to give a chance to everyone, not just players like Rocket, who pour tons of peds to increase their chances... the result is not surprising. On the contrary, if the game was forced, to pay for every rush to pour PED... then, there would be a similar topic in which another would complain, why Rocket has a Rare Token every week...
The fact that Rare tokens fall every few days... is because they don't fall only in Cat 10 in the redbullshits, but also in Cat 6... 2... where the status of the mob is different from Cat 10.
As in this case with the boxes that have nothing to do with the status of a mob of Cat 2 or 10.
PPRPSRT.
I do not follow the chronology of ATH or the big HOFs in the game, but it is quite possible in my opinion to have two big HOFs in one week... for example 40-50k from EP4... where one will be at the beginning of this time frame and the other at its end - if you do not take 100k at the beginning and assume that 100k is the whole pool.
In other words, the biggest one of 600k, in my opinion, could be divided into two ATH of 200-300k, in its week time frame, but the player was lucky to take everything.
PPRPSRT 2.
WTB Azuro Perfected - 500 pure ped... call me pls!!