Help: Should Rare Tokens be This Hard to Get?

MeiGDLing

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Well it's tough to answer, no rare tokens myself and know many people with much worse skill and gear + less ped cycled that have multiple but on the flip side as you know box opening at these prices is basically break even with rings and pills if you can get rid of them and it's trivial to cycle the UA and just withdraw it so being able to just farm rares in that manner is pretty unbalanced as well. Guess there needs to be RNG and a fail rate but does suck when it's you failing, I can attest to that.
 

Evey

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i'd like to redirect the thread back to the original questions posed.

what can i be doing differently?

should rare tokens be this difficult to obtain?
You can't do anything about it. When it's your turn, you can loot several if you're active. If it's not, no matter how much you roll, you will not get any.
 

Iceman2003

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You did not loose enough money to get it back as rare tokens, you always state yours tt returns are 98,5%+ so you giving very less to the game in terms of peds into lootpule. Take as example Eve - 200k loss and then on migration comepsation in the form of 4 mod shadow parts :) Loose more money and you get them :)
 

miathan

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Loot rate seems about right to me. I had conjectured maybe 1 in 40k boxes opened...but that means you can go 2-3 times that number and not get one...

Contrary to what knuckleheads say...

I had 4 in 24k boxes.
For fun just let us say the probability is 1 / 40000, pure RNG.
Even if there are waves you could still approximate it as RNG (if you don't actively "surf").

Lets define some things:
P_rare = 1 / 40000
P_norare = 39999 / 40000
N_boxes = number of boxes opened
N_rares = number of rares found
C(x, y) = the "nCr" function

With this we can formulate a formula for the probability to find 0, 1, 2, 3, rares while opening N_boxes.

C(N_boxes, N_rares) * P_rare^N_rares * P_norare^(N_boxes-N_rares)

So if you open 40K boxes the probability to get:
0 rares = 36.8%
1 rare = 36.8%
2 rares = 18.4%
3 rares = 6.13%
4 rares = 1.5%

The probability to get 4 rares in 24K boxes is: 0.3%
So either @atomicstorm was very lucky or the probability is larger than 1/40K or using "waves" can greatly increase your odds.
 

miathan

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Why dislike? :( Was just trying to provide an analysis of the probabilities...
 

unufain8

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sadly you can be rich and still be let down by shitty dev decisions.
its not shitty dev decisions, those shitty dev decisions affects us all, the fact you are whining cause you dont have the luck to loot a rare token its your problem.
The rest of few k that are in same situation should post same whinings here? Why do you think having money should make you special?
 

Deepa2

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I have opened in excess of $43,000 in seasonal boxes in my attempts to acquire the my last rare mayhem token. Prior to this is spent about $12k USD to take 2nd place in FFA (yeah i know but goals are goals and it wasn't about the money).

I have been sitting on some 130k+ M tokens and 1 rare for much of the duration of this mayhem. I have paid for top dps equipment. I have hired shooters. I have min-maxed to the utmost potential with the resources at my disposal. It is not a matter of "doing something different."

This is a case of randomness, volatility, and results that seem to be outside reasonable boundaries of what you would expect to see after cycling over 2.1 million ped and opening 43k seasonal boxes in a 6 month span. Support has directed me to ask on forums what i could be doing differently so i'd love to hear thoughts and suggestions while also brining up the question of whether rare tokens should be this difficult to obtain and whether, in a real cash virtual universe, the developers should be able to bottleneck players by making rare tokens (only rares specifically) untradeable between players.

haha, "advice to ask other players what you doing wrong" is hilarious. :LOL:

As for the rest.
Well, it's indeed might be related to your efficiency. I have depoed for last year around half of what you have shown. And on last mayhem I had looter 40 something and a gun with 60 eff. And looted 2 rares from mobs. Meanwhile my hunting returns were always shitty. I'd say I feel like I have 80-90% of hunting returns but no-one will believe me.

So look at this from some different perspective:
All boxes (not matter how many) you opened gave you 10 ped tt. So basically MA doesn't feel they owe you anything.
And your hunting returns assumable at 98%+ are about as high as MA could return you, because with mu you probably got 100%+

So basically, what you can do:
1) stop opening shitty boxes. with 43000 loot events you could grab few 30k ped rings.
2) If I were you, I would try to turn off your efficient way of playing. probably shittier gun, probably some real expenses on crafted amps, some shitty hunt on daspletors maybe :)


BTW: I have got a ring (8k ped) in a moment when i had a very bad couple of days prior, I lost around 6-7k peds on something stupid. gambling and too strong mobs.
We all see what noobs and mediocre players getting rares all the time. What if it's due to their return volatility?
 

Deemer

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For fun just let us say the probability is 1 / 40000, pure RNG.
Even if there are waves you could still approximate it as RNG (if you don't actively "surf").

Lets define some things:
P_rare = 1 / 40000
P_norare = 39999 / 40000
N_boxes = number of boxes opened
N_rares = number of rares found
C(x, y) = the "nCr" function

With this we can formulate a formula for the probability to find 0, 1, 2, 3, rares while opening N_boxes.

C(N_boxes, N_rares) * P_rare^N_rares * P_norare^(N_boxes-N_rares)

So if you open 40K boxes the probability to get:
0 rares = 36.8%
1 rare = 36.8%
2 rares = 18.4%
3 rares = 6.13%
4 rares = 1.5%

The probability to get 4 rares in 24K boxes is: 0.3%
So either @atomicstorm was very lucky or the probability is larger than 1/40K or using "waves" can greatly increase your odds.


Entropia is a game, not a casino simulator.
There are time intervals, both hourly and monthly.
Not everything is based on statistical percentages.

The longest time interval I think is of the order of ~ 2 months, and just as they "reward the game" at the end of the hourly interval, compared to your actions during the current rate... so it rewards at the end of this interval.

Just as we have a 7 minute hourly time interval during which the system balances you... so we have a weekly time interval of 5 hours... which works the same way... so we have a monthly time interval of 5 days...

It's not so noticeable if you don't pay attention, but just as not every mob gives you a good TT return in the shortest period of 7 minutes... there is no big difference during the weekly interval - especially since there are also dynamic spasms.

That is, since Rare Tokens are not Extreme Rare Tokens, it is likely that a player will take Two Tokens during the game's monthly time-spawn.

Since the game has some protection of its own to give a chance to everyone, not just players like Rocket, who pour tons of peds to increase their chances... the result is not surprising. On the contrary, if the game was forced, to pay for every rush to pour PED... then, there would be a similar topic in which another would complain, why Rocket has a Rare Token every week...

The fact that Rare tokens fall every few days... is because they don't fall only in Cat 10 in the redbullshits, but also in Cat 6... 2... where the status of the mob is different from Cat 10.
As in this case with the boxes that have nothing to do with the status of a mob of Cat 2 or 10.


PPRPSRT.
I do not follow the chronology of ATH or the big HOFs in the game, but it is quite possible in my opinion to have two big HOFs in one week... for example 40-50k from EP4... where one will be at the beginning of this time frame and the other at its end - if you do not take 100k at the beginning and assume that 100k is the whole pool.

In other words, the biggest one of 600k, in my opinion, could be divided into two ATH of 200-300k, in its week time frame, but the player was lucky to take everything.


PPRPSRT 2.
WTB Azuro Perfected - 500 pure ped... call me pls!!
 

Rocket192

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You can't do anything about it. When it's your turn, you can loot several if you're active. If it's not, no matter how much you roll, you will not get any.
this is the reality. i don't really like this system at all, but after 10+ years here it seems there's just no way to brute force a result and you're just reliant on getting a "lucky avatar seed" for that week or whatever. just sucks that it's occurred while i miss out on broker selections lol.


its not shitty dev decisions, those shitty dev decisions affects us all, the fact you are whining cause you dont have the luck to loot a rare token its your problem.
The rest of few k that are in same situation should post same whinings here? Why do you think having money should make you special?
i mean it's a lazy loot system man. everything is on time wave releases and caps. it's just really bad and i fear it's also how TT return is handled universe-wide so it's not just a simple fix without dismantling the system they've always used. Regarding the whining, it's justified i think. The rest of the thread has utility in it. from an observer you'd clearly see that if it's not your time to shine then no matter how much you play or how much you spend/invest you're never going to get the rewards you're after, while everyone around you gets them with ease because they're on a good wave or whatever.


again it's not about the money. having money doesn't make me special, but it does put me in the unique-ish position of being able to cycle this many boxes and this much ped in mayhems to discover "flaws" such as this one (if you wanna call it that).

Also, in the real world when you need something you just buy it. even if it's in high demand and low supply you can still buy it from someone for some price. That element of "real cash economy" has been taken from the players here.
 

Rocket192

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At this point i don't think the thread has anything constructive left to offer. people are spiraling into debates that are taking away from the two questions i posed:

"what can i be doing differently?" and "should rare tokens be this hard to get?"

the only pertinent advice i've received upon making this thread at support's directive is that it's simply "not my time" which kinda feels like it's really just gambling at this point.
 

Evey

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this is the reality. i don't really like this system at all, but after 10+ years here it seems there's just no way to brute force a result and you're just reliant on getting a "lucky avatar seed" for that week or whatever. just sucks that it's occurred while i miss out on broker selections lol.
I think it's a matter of perspective, a matter of context, depending where you are ... imagine you could brute force your way ... the game would break apart. you can brute force yourself for consistency and that is the real deal. It's what most struggle with and what actually pays off.
I don't agree it's gambling, otherwise your chances would have been a lot higher but at times it feels 100 rolls and 100k rolls might have equal chance for the rare/ring which is counterintuitive and can get frustrating no doubt....
 

Ranyard

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I have no answer for you as I cycle 2.2k ped an hour for 200+ hours every mayhem and I have 0 rare tokens. I do think that the rares should be a bit more not so rare.
 

slupor

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I opened 50 boxes and got one rare token. Guess I have a normal droprate and you are just very, very unlucky.
 

Rocket192

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I opened 50 boxes and got one rare token. Guess I have a normal droprate and you are just very, very unlucky.
for every one of me there's 200+ of you
 

Ivo Jahrumble

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my2pec: - "should rare tokens be this hard to get?" - it's simply "not my time" its the best way to put it. Anything that contains randomness can divert from average to get really ugly or really sweet to the extreme! Sometimes you do everything right and still lose. Thats just how it is.

"what can i be doing differently? - IF your avatar is not kicking rares, have someone farm them for you. From previous answers you know some avatars are cold while others are hot in looting rares. You are in a great position to be a mogul in game if your point is only to get to the gun... Network and create ways for the rare token to get to you.

This is still after all a RCE. Use that and your position to accomplish your goals.

I respect your opinions about the game very much. Very much on point all times. With the amounts you deposit you should focus on asking MA for some solutions to tougher questions. I would love you to do that!
 

jwestonmoss

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the obvious solution to this is to have a cumulative increased chances mechanic (forget what that's called) where you are sort of building up to a guaranteed drop at a certain cycle even if RNG doesn't get you before then. getting a little unlucky is one thing. getting as unlucky as you have been seems absurd and there should be a mechanic to prevent it
 

miathan

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I opened 50 boxes and got one rare token. Guess I have a normal droprate and you are just very, very unlucky.
According to EL you also looted 4 rings in those 50 boxes? Or you actually opened more than 50 boxes since rare was introduced?
 

Rocket192

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"what can i be doing differently? - IF your avatar is not kicking rares, have someone farm them for you. From previous answers you know some avatars are cold while others are hot in looting rares. You are in a great position to be a mogul in game if your point is only to get to the gun... Network and create ways for the rare token to get to you.

This is still after all a RCE. Use that and your position to accomplish your goals.
this would work if rares were tradable.

it is not a RCE. if it is then it must be run by authortarians.
 

Rocket192

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the obvious solution to this is to have a cumulative increased chances mechanic (forget what that's called) where you are sort of building up to a guaranteed drop at a certain cycle even if RNG doesn't get you before then. getting a little unlucky is one thing. getting as unlucky as you have been seems absurd and there should be a mechanic to prevent it
for items which the developers declare as "content gatekeepers" this would be appropriate. i agree.
 

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well just as people usual told to me , you sample its to small , just cycle more maybe you need another 3million cycle to get more one token
yada yada yada , etc ,etc ,etc

After all Entropia Is Dynamic
And Average is Average

Dont forget our economy is run by communism and state control and they have favorites and golden boys

At end day you only can SIT/BEND KNEE AND PRAY TO EU GODS , or buy Mindark and fix this shit by yourself
(in fact you buy EU IP and DB and Userbase whole company can dissamble and move to some more skilled game studio and cheap as well)
 
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Rocket192

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well just as people usual told to me , you sample its to small , just cycle more maybe you need another 3million cycle to get more one token
yada yada yada , etc ,etc ,etc

After all Entropia Is Dynamic
And Average is Average

Dont forget our economy is run by communism and state control and they have favorites and golden boys
i don't think some players are favored over others. i think people underestimate how much the players on top cycle.
 

Vadio

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:) you results speak for itself but gl on that assumption

#RaresForRocket!
 
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Ivo Jahrumble

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On a RCE game one of the top investors has no way to accomplish his goal! - Great advertising headline indeed!!

Can´t loot the M tokens by brute force. Can´t buy them from other players. What a preety bad position to be in.

I feel for ya on this one. I can undertand you are on cold spell for looting M tokens.
But there needs to be a way for a player to get them from others. It will enable many minions to work for bigger dogs (problem is also enables a lot of ground for cheating). One of the 1st principles of Entropia was exactly that. Having smaller players "work" for bigger ones. Factorys and s*** they said.

The game sure needs a strong statement from the players in some areas.

- Where is the security team?
- When if ever are they fixing the economy?

As you put it very well above. Too many changes disabled the RCE aspect of the game and enabled the "you can only buy from developer and not other players".

We players should focus on asking MA why it is this way, since this is the root cause that is killing the game. A RCE with no economy makes no sense. Sorry for going a bit of topic here but my answer to your question is. IF there were enough solutions in place you would not be asking this question! So lets focus on what needs to be fixed from the ground up. Not starting with the roof!!
 

DonJunior

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Looks like it takes 1 million boxes plus for a rare to drop, you have decent odds compared to most, but it's still a long shot at 20/1.
 

jambon

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Wow. :bowdown:💸

That's some BS right there. Meanwhile, there's some people getting rares from $5.00 worth of boxes and others that are closing in on a half dozen rares or more from what I have to assume is less than those numbers.

You've really nailed the problem with the new mayhem format for sure. Don't get me wrong, I love that these can be looted randomly. It gives even the non-rich players and noobs a shot at working towards a highly valuable mayhem item. Though just dropping nice UL items in the mayhem loot would be equally nice... but hey, MA's got a plan I guess (to phase out the real loot LOL)

However, they really shouldn't have dropped the ability to also earn them though typical competition too. Even if only at higher cat levels. For some players their hunting is essentially a business and it's hard to run a business when one of your most important aspects of cashflow (events) is stunted by the bottleneck of a single random loot. Compound this by the fact that this loot isn't just reserved for the highest level hunters, it can be looted by anyone for any amount of investment if lucky enough. And these things drop very frequently (albeit to mostly, different people) for something called "rare".

At the very least, there should be a way of converting regular tokens into rares at some crazy high exchange rate of like 25,000 tokens or something. So if you aren't as lucky you can still grind to your goal.
 

jambon

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support directed me to ask for suggestions, not baseless conjectures.

That's gotta be one of the biggest trolls from the support department. No one knows what they fuck they're talking about on here lol. At least not in the sense of a definitive guide or formula to guarantee rare loots on demand.

I mean seriously, if anyone has the magic answer on how to loot rares you think they're gonna just reveal it to the public on here cause someone asks? LMFAO
 
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