What constitutes a hunting run?

[PreyNaika]

From my understanding

One runn is what ever you deside to spend during one runn
This can be 1 ped 10ped 100 ped you Name it.

Everything else is one session untill you log in for the next session

 

[Ferial]

Now I know there's a bias somewhere in the loot system or running in parallel with it.

That is a very strong statement on very rare occurences, that could also be explained in other ways, without any data to support it.

If there was a bias, like the one you speak of, wouldn't it be fair to say that two people with very similar skills and very similar setups, doing very similar things should end up with very similar results after a significant amount of loot instances? Yet we have witnessed several instances of this not being the case. Whether that is due to dirty data or something else, is uncertain.

Entropia Universe has never had any kind of so called personal lootpool mechanic.

It seems some participants have incorrectly interpreted the developer note article to mean that personal lootpools or some other sort of loot tracking / avatar compensation mechanic existed in the past and was later removed. This is not the case.

Now granted, this is an old post. It does however highlight what personal lootpool means to MA, and in combination with the post 2.0 statement saying "there is still no personal lootpool" makes a strong case for there still not being any avatar compensation mechanic in play.
Naturally there is no way of knowing for sure.

The occurences you speak of can be explained statistically with a random distribution trending to a value. Given enough "instances" you will LIKELY end up near your expected value. A "correction" from an unexpectedly low value can either come over time in the form of slightly increased averages, or it can come in the form of one or more bigger hits. The same applies for an unexpectedly high value, although in the case of entropia, there is no "negative" loot instances and there is a lower bound on return and as such it can only go down with lower averages

I am certain that you have (if you have logged any meaningful volume of data) seen occurences of both, as well as the 'claw back' after being at an unexpectedly high value. It is just more fun and memorable when one of these occur, and as such it is easy to remember.

I am a firm believer that every loot instance is isolated, and that the only thing you can do is just keep shooting.

 

[Jak_Unlimited_TRADE]

That is a very strong statement on very rare occurences, that could also be explained in other ways, without any data to support it.

If there was a bias, like the one you speak of, wouldn't it be fair to say that two people with very similar skills and very similar setups, doing very similar things should end up with very similar results after a significant amount of loot instances? Yet we have witnessed several instances of this not being the case. Whether that is due to dirty data or something else, is uncertain.



Now granted, this is an old post. It does however highlight what personal lootpool means to MA, and in combination with the post 2.0 statement saying "there is still no personal lootpool" makes a strong case for there still not being any avatar compensation mechanic in play.
Naturally there is no way of knowing for sure.

The occurences you speak of can be explained statistically with a random distribution trending to a value. Given enough "instances" you will LIKELY end up near your expected value. A "correction" from an unexpectedly low value can either come over time in the form of slightly increased averages, or it can come in the form of one or more bigger hits. The same applies for an unexpectedly high value, although in the case of entropia, there is no "negative" loot instances and there is a lower bound on return and as such it can only go down with lower averages

I am certain that you have (if you have logged any meaningful volume of data) seen occurences of both, as well as the 'claw back' after being at an unexpectedly high value. It is just more fun and memorable when one of these occur, and as such it is easy to remember.

I am a firm believer that every loot instance is isolated, and that the only thing you can do is just keep shooting.

Thanks for the input,
Just keep shooting? lol that there is the problem, and it describes a casino style game; is that what we have? a casino? If I would have just stayed up later hunting or stuck it out another hour in mayhem, then I would have had my 95% loot return: not a good scenario. I do think there has to be something in the way of tracking or how are we supposed to get the 95% return when we are down? Correct me if I am wrong, are you suggesting luck or randomness to the loot system?

 

[Katie Chalmers]

or how are we supposed to get the 95% return when we are down?

Look up the law of large numbers in mathematics. Given a large enough number of events, your results will always converge on the calculated average. Always.

and it describes a casino style game; is that what we have?

Yes. The key difference is here you can sell your poker chips to other players for markup, and if you are good, cover the house edge and then some.

 

[ForeGroundText]

Thanks for the input,
Just keep shooting? lol that there is the problem, and it describes a casino style game; is that what we have? a casino? If I would have just stayed up later hunting or stuck it out another hour in mayhem, then I would have had my 95% loot return: not a good scenario. I do think there has to be something in the way of tracking or how are we supposed to get the 95% return when we are down? Correct me if I am wrong, are you suggesting luck or randomness to the loot system?

based on what MA said, there is no personal loot pool. meaning, what u lost is lost, ur future loot is not related to what u lost. so, if u lost a lot there is no certainty that u will hit a big HoF later, and also if u hit a big HoF it doesnt mean u will have a big loss in the future. and also related to how r we get 95%, it just the bigger the sample size the more we get closer into our average return...

based on my experience, there is seemingly a personal loot pool. because I always experience a very bad return prior to any HoF. can be just a coincidence though...

anyway, even if there is a personal loot pool I bet MA will never be honest about it... just imagine, the support case will be filled with a bunch of ppls asking for their big HoF compensation or their return "correction". it just ridiculous to tell their own player about it, players expectation will be higher than what already is and the frustration caused by long downswing will get elevated LOL.

 

[avalonis]

95%) for the return, what level of luther do you have, what kind of gun do you have with what efficiency and damag. there are a lot of nuances to keep loot at 90%, so the average hunt is unprofitable by itself lol

 

[SSN]

I believe there is to avoid anti-gambling law, but it is just a belief, i have nothing to proove it 100%

 

[Jak_Unlimited_TRADE]

95%) for the return, what level of luther do you have, what kind of gun do you have with what efficiency and damag. there are a lot of nuances to keep loot at 90%, so the average hunt is unprofitable by itself lol

I was just using that as a %. But I using a night special tier 5 with dmg, A105 improved, mod restoration chip and no armor. I am very close to lvl 50 give or take .. Eff 77.7%.. I should more or less be getting close to 94-95% TT return, at least I would think.

 

[onlygodplays]

a real hunting run is whenever you get bored of hunting you stop lol its a video game at the end of the day anyways. dont push or do something you dont want to. just have fun.

 

[linzhizun]

This is true there is no personal "loot pool" per day but there are definitely loot restrictions and bonuses depending on how well or bad you're doing. I lost over 1k hunting thorifoids then the next week I got 2 600+ hofs and 1 global for 50 on miner bots just days apart. On my first time hunting them.

 

[Ferial]

Thanks for the input,
Just keep shooting? lol that there is the problem, and it describes a casino style game; is that what we have? a casino? If I would have just stayed up later hunting or stuck it out another hour in mayhem, then I would have had my 95% loot return: not a good scenario. I do think there has to be something in the way of tracking or how are we supposed to get the 95% return when we are down? Correct me if I am wrong, are you suggesting luck or randomness to the loot system?

I believe that it does not matter if you stay up later or leave early, I believe that you will get what the circumstances of your avatar and setup is supposed to give you, given enough loot instances to even out, however many that may be.

I will now reference a post I made a couple of years ago when I was given the exact same question on "how can the system give players their expected return without a personal loot pool":

it´s all in the multipliers.
let´s say 50% of the loot instances are set to loot 50% of the wager cost, we now have 25% RTP.
let´s say next to those 50% we have 25% of the loot instances set to loot 75% of the cost to play. you know have 43,75%RTP
lets say next to those, you have 20% of the loot instances set to loot 100% of the wager cost, we now have 63.75% RTP
let´s say you have 2,5% return 250% of the wager cost. we now have 70% rtp
let´s say you have 1% return 5000% of the wagers cost. we now have 75% rtp.
let´s say you have 1% return 10000% of the wagers cost, we now have 85% rtp.
let´s say the remainder 0.5% return 20000% of the wagers cost we now have 95% rtp.

this way, MA never pays out more than 95% of their income, the average return is 95% over the entire playerbase. but the returns can vary quite vastly within the playerbase.

as well as this list of simulation images showing how variance reduces with increased number of loot instances:

Simulations made with a very crude mathematical model, 40% cost variability and static multipliers. 10 players (with the exact same stats and items) each killing the same amount of 4 ped average mobs.

Spoiler: 100 loot instances

High: 107.3%
Low: 69.53%

Spoiler: 1000 loot instances

High: 112.67%
Low: 80.15%

Spoiler: 10 000 loot instances

High: 102.47%
Low: 91.76%

Spoiler: 100 000 loot instances

High: 98.41%
Low: 95.82%

Spoiler: 1 000 000 loot instances

High: 97.67%
Low: 96.61%

As can be seen, variance is reduced with increased loot instances. there is still quite a significant variance even after 1 million loot instances in this mathematical model.

The numbers in themselves have nothing to do with Entropia Universe, as the mathematical model is vastly different. Looter, efficiency, time and what not has been completely ignored for the sake of illustrating the point that more is better, pretty much.

If the rules don´t change, you will get very close to your expected results (whatever they may be) as the number of loot instances approaches infinity.
That´s why I say, Just keep shooting. I am not suggesting luck. I am suggesting randomness.

 

[linzhizun]

I believe that it does not matter if you stay up later or leave early, I believe that you will get what the circumstances of your avatar and setup is supposed to give you, given enough loot instances to even out, however many that may be.

I will now reference a post I made a couple of years ago when I was given the exact same question on "how can the system give players their expected return without a personal loot pool":



as well as this list of simulation images showing how variance reduces with increased number of loot instances:


If the rules don´t change, you will get very close to your expected results (whatever they may be) as the number of loot instances approaches infinity.
That´s why I say, Just keep shooting. I am not suggesting luck. I am suggesting randomness.

I believe it, they do say the player "average" is around 95% so some are probably getting more by randomness and some less by luckiness

 

[Atrax]

lol that there is the problem, and it describes a casino style game; is that what we have? a casino?

This is true only in the sense that if you sat at a slot machine and played continuously you should eventually achieve the return percentage the machine is set for. Other types of casino game can involve more or less skill, direct comparison would be more complex.

In reality most people are going to sit there for an hour or two, and either dig themselves a hole, or walk away when they're up. If you pull the arm enough times, there's very little "gamble" to a slot machine, honestly. Well, the old school ones. With the computer machines they can obviously arrange some shenanigans.

There's also been in the past plenty of anecdotal evidence that you can just "walk away while you're ahead" in EU as well. I'm personally happy to end a "run" a little early if I know the end is coming and I just took a large loot.

MA have been more revealing over the last couple of years IMO about some of this. By which I mean they published some statements and some data that one time. They're concerned with overall averages though, not player averages. They can sample 100k loot events across the player base in a matter of hours, not weeks or months - and as long as that overall average continues to look good they have no reason to be concerned with an avatar's individual returns.

 

[linzhizun]

This is true only in the sense that if you sat at a slot machine and played continuously you should eventually achieve the return percentage the machine is set for. Other types of casino game can involve more or less skill, direct comparison would be more complex.

In reality most people are going to sit there for an hour or two, and either dig themselves a hole, or walk away when they're up. If you pull the arm enough times, there's very little "gamble" to a slot machine, honestly. Well, the old school ones. With the computer machines they can obviously arrange some shenanigans.

There's also been in the past plenty of anecdotal evidence that you can just "walk away while you're ahead" in EU as well. I'm personally happy to end a "run" a little early if I know the end is coming and I just took a large loot.

MA have been more revealing over the last couple of years IMO about some of this. By which I mean they published some statements and some data that one time. They're concerned with overall averages though, not player averages. They can sample 100k loot events across the player base in a matter of hours, not weeks or months - and as long as that overall average continues to look good they have no reason to be concerned with an avatar's individual returns.

That does lead to the question if rather than individual loot pool, are we going against each other, because after a while I feel that each mob have their own pool and if someone, as you say, walks away after a big hof, doesn't that mean other players still hunting that one end up paying the cost?

 

[Atrax]

if someone, as you say, walks away after a big hof, doesn't that mean other players ... end up paying the cost?

The short answer to this questions is "yes". I'd say "obviously" - because MA isn't paying it and who else is there?

The long answer to this might be over here somewhere. Or not

I edited a few words out of your question because I feel there's plenty of anecdotal evidence against a per mob/activity loot pool. I mean, have you ever tried to do anything at all in the two weeks before a big hunting event? That big splash of loot has to come from somewhere and again, MA isn't paying it.

 

[linzhizun]

The short answer to this questions is "yes". I'd say "obviously" - because MA isn't paying it and who else is there?

The long answer to this might be over here somewhere. Or not

I edited a few words out of your question because I feel there's plenty of anecdotal evidence against a per mob/activity loot pool. I mean, have you ever tried to do anything at all in the two weeks before a big hunting event? That big splash of loot has to come from somewhere and again, MA isn't paying it.

Well yeah I was hunting at a loss last night and this guy a screen away got 5 globals in 30

 

[Ferial]

Well yeah I was hunting at a loss last night and this guy a screen away got 5 globals in 30

Feels bad, for sure but doesn't matter. Ignore others, focus on yourself.

 

[GermanMan]

so i have now logged the last 50 hunts with me. before my break and am now continuing with it. i have a return of 95% tt value on this. sometimes i have a daily task that i have to use 50 ped for, sometimes i hunt for 100 ped.