Who pays for Ubers & ATHs? Answer:

[Photon]

And yes, there are cases such as this: 3 day old noob gets 27,000ped HOF (01-29-2006) That I can't explain.

Maybe the explanation is that a tiny % of the profits MA make get put into the loot pool as a kinda of sweep stake bonus for people to win. Like winning the lottery.

 

[mastermesh]

seems like this theory is most correct of all I've read so far...

The "global waves" are just algorithms that pay out individuals at the same time what they are due that hour when they click the buttons at the same time, programmed that way to make n00bs think that it's more like a casino so that they start clicking more, and loosing more.

If this is the case, it's as it always has been - the true winners are those that buy low, sell high, sweat, do professions that cater to the public like crafting/beauty/fapping, etc., or can manage to do pvp without any decay and loot all their earnings from other participants....

i.e. just like in a casino, you are better off playing at the craps or blackjack tables because you are playing against other players, not just the house.

 

[Futurama]

No any attempts to "fool" it would be picked up by MA, and result in the systems change.

Solution is simple - just make a system that doesn`t need changing...

 

[jjmatrix]

It seems that this theory may be true up to some point; you need big looses in order to get a big HOF or ATH. This may explain why someone playing for 5 years that managed to be more or less even, never gets a big loot in one shot.

 

[PopFuzz]

This is how I feel the system work. In fact I know several people who wrote support complaining about others luck and support pretty much says players pay for their own loot. It would be nice if someone could post their actual support case reply. I only know of one player who said he was in TT profit (Which was very obvious by the amount of luck) but now they been complaining about their bad loot for months now and by my calculations they may see as much as 1-2 years of bad loot till they hit something nice again.

I believe the system pays out the bigger loots at a random interval in the loot cycle every 30-60K clicks (150K clicks for the real big ones) but its in a random order so it can pay out on first or 60k click. If a noob happens to get their big hit early on, the system will take the tt back. I know of at least one noob who hit a 40-50K tower and was dead broke a month later.

I played with the system some last 8 months, counted loot cycle predicted when my larger loots would hit went to space both times the peak was suppose to hit and got a small tower (not a really large loot for space) but in both cases trying to trick the system lead to super large tt Losses immediately after. My last 4K tower was lost in 2 days with 60% tt return till tower was gone then loot returned to about 80%.

Ive had about 6 months now of 80% tt return rather long bad loot streak for me (about 200K cycled). In that time I have lost about 20K peds on top of the 10% tt return loss that I expected. What does that mean? It means I predict that I will hit a nice 15-20K uber soon within the next 2-3 months most likely.

 

[sndlwood]

Not one of them achieved (or would admit to) long term TT profit.

In mathematical terms: ATHs < (Total_TT_Spend - Total_TT_Return)

So even ATHers have lost peds to MA over the long run.

At first I thought I was going to get you on this, based on my own experience last April. Yes I am one of 2 hunters on GETTING A HOF BEFORE KITTY DOES (I did not make the team name). I do not keep a log of TT spending, but I asked for and received a record of my deposits. Nothing extravagant as you can see below, esp. considering it ranges over 5 years and there were no deposit in 2010.



The guy I was hunting with had only started playing months before and had already had an ATH (#78 on the list). but his tt spending up until then had been massive. He immediately blew his share of our #1 ATH on a new set of armor. So I figure that I was only sharing in an ATH that I didn't fully contribute to.

Deposit $2,000 and get back $6,000 (rounding) seems like pure profit to me. I've also had 2 small towers. One the same week as the ATH. But then I remembered the mining service i ran for well over a year were my avatar was spending anywhere from 500-5000 PED a week of other players money. The total TT spend over that period was in excess of 100K PED.

Either way I was sharing in an ATH that other players contributed to. I took the money, but I didn't run. And I have stared to deposit again. I'm a total junkie, hooked for life.

 

[Xandra]

Hi,

when I hit my ~7K HOF it payed for all of my losses before. I don't have hard data, sry the MA deposit site doesn't show me my old deposits anymore. You need to believe me.

It happened out of the blue. Came back to Jasons, my home town at this time, and found the event drones sieging the TP. Died in less then some seconds. Was in Vigi anyways, was angry, found the drones sieged the Service center too, killing the noobs there over and over, and got me some more ammo and repair. Went out, cleared the area, found some more noobs under attack, saved them, and -whoosh! 6.9K HoF (+MU).

This, for sure, made my previous years a profit, if even a very small. Wouldn't my mid level gear had lost this much value I'd be in + still.

IMHO you are wrong. IMHO it's just a matter of randomness, or luck, to hit huge. I'm very sure that there's a lot of randomness in the loot calculation. I'm also sure that there's a few factors that give a higher probability - a seasoned participant in a team with a fresh noob for instance.

Once I thought it might correlate with spending money, depositing, loosing - but never ever I could get results that would reliable prove it - often I got just rebutted. Loot comes and goes, it seems, maybe in a spiral shape, dunno.

What helped in my case was hunting with a complete noob, in a 2 ppl team. This has given astonishing results in a number I'd think of as persuasive. But don't ask me why ...

Do we know what craziness MA old coders have coded into the loot algorithm? Does MA know it at least? One thing for sure, the HoF comes over you like a lightning out of a blue sky. Any try to to foresee it is futile, IMHO.

Have fun!

PS: A lot of "IMHO" in this text, I don't claim to know the one and only truth!

 

[aridash]

And yes, there are cases such as this: 3 day old noob gets 27,000ped HOF (01-29-2006) That I can't explain. However, the main point of this thread is simple: Everything I've learned says those who've got ATHs paid for it themselves. Your peds are not going to them.

which begs the question, were do the Peds go? is decay=revenue all just a simple lie and there's a 5% cut on activity. for me, it would be simpler if this were the case and MA admitted it.

but hold on, the examples only cover a small set of data. what about all those that cycle similar amounts and see no ATH or HoF? what about those that ATH and dont make a log about it? the exception provided of the 27k Hof proves the theory wrong, or at least insists there needs to be more deeper enquiry to explain it.

i am mindfull of the consequences. does this mean each and every loot is tracked and stored forever? or maybe a personal "hof" pool is filled and pays out upon a trigger. why at 50k not 2589? why at 309 and not 17k. Would this pool pass between activities? i recall a soc member who had spent months on CND globaling, Hofing, cycling lots (though starting from little not that much) and on his first hunting trip on the planet popped a 12k atrox. a great many avatars are "lucky" in this way, do they all then lead an early life of poor loot to rebalance?

also, what does all this mean for eco? are we finally going to throw that out as a load of player created nonsence? maybe it effects the personal pool payout cycle. all possible, but seems unnecessarily complicated. ive seen too many things and predictions that suggest such a tight avatar bonding isnt in play.


it seems to me that the logs cited prove a different hypothesis, that increased activity increases the liklihood of a big loot.

 

[Raffaele Meiers]

After starting this Service about 6 Years ago I deposited maybe 100 US$ over the time of 1 year.

I then got a 7K Oil Tower roughly 1/2 year later.

About one years later(4 years ago) I did deposit again and did put about 800 US$ into this service in 6 months time.

ATM my Avatar has roughly 20kped items (incl. Markup) and roughly skills with MV of another 20k and on top of this a OA-102 SGA.

So I think my balance against MA/FPC/SDS etc. looks not bad.

The only thing I do not like is that at 58/59 in dmg/hit Laser Pistoleer and 170 HP's I can hunt efficiently Merp/Daikibas but if I go on bigger mobs like Trooper/Warrior/Droka/Evis or Steelbird i'll loose big and fast like one 143Ped global in 150 Steelbird Gen. 1.

Even small Argos with the low MU on Iron is a loss with my skills. Haveing said this with atm 27/28 in Prospecting/Surveying I can return to mine all the time to generate some cash to start hunting again. Seams I created my Avatar at the wrong time to be abel to sustain my expirience in EU with hunting.

Conclusion after 6 years in PE/EU:

1) MA can controle how many and the size of ATH's
2) ATH's are part of loot algorythm and MA can adjust the amount going into ATH pool
3) Either the number of active playing persons went down in a extrem way or MA noticed that more and bigger ATH's as a advertisement to get new players in or push existing players to more/bigger deposits did work in the beginning but stopped working.
4) MA stopped or reduced heavily the extrem big uber loots >40K especially in hunting. Something I think is very very good for this Service.
5) I think(since Proteron and Levis) one can say that every mob has his on loot pool from witch he dishes out the Loot(including Globals, HoF's and ATH's)
6) Every mob can have a different table how the factors are distributed like there are mobs who dish out nearly the same number of Globals and HoF's out like Merps for example where the chance to get a 50Ped Global is about the same as getting a 500+ Ped HoF where on other mobs the chance to get a 50ped Global is far bigger than to get a 500+ ped HoF.
7) If there is a separate pool for ATH's on each mob I'm not 100% sure but I think it is also for this categorie of loots that there are separate pools on every mob to be filled and not a general pool from witch they are taken.

 

[fluske]

but if this is true then dam/pec dont have any value at all.....just use an high dam/sec unlimited weapon to reduce defensecosts....


if this is true an noob at would be better of using an doa or maddox4 then an kors400

 

[Jennson]

but if this is true then dam/pec dont have any value at all.....just use an high dam/sec unlimited weapon to reduce defensecosts....


if this is true an noob at would be better of using an doa or maddox4 then an kors400

When real cost would be (used decay + ammo ) * 0.9 the cheaper setup still wins. I did tests with oldstyle UL guns and my run was about 30 PED more expensive on one amp ( same dps than the p5a with my skills ) so even on 90% payback my run would be 3 ped more expensive, count up for thousands of cycled peds this sums up

 

[Thorn]

I would`nt say that players pay for their own ATH since noobs can also ATH. But most of us agree that PED spent and cycled does increase ones chances of getting back a big loot or a good number of smaller ones. I`ve known people that dump a bunch of money in and get some nice loots. But not to say they make up for what they put in. And I`ve seen them promptly blow through the profit from those big loots and decend into big losses. PED cycled is a factor. But there is also that luck factor as we see with noob hofs. And we know that now days the peaks and valleys in loot cycles are or can be longer than in the past. And the mobs with bigger hof potential such as the larger regen mobs will fluctuate even more than smaller mobs. You have that chance to win more or lose alot more too. For me it`s usually lose. Does that mean I need to spend more PED? Sounds to me like throwing good money after bad. Especially since MA does`nt seem to like to give back more than 100% tt value. So in essence we are all just hoping to get something with good markup. Okay there are no definitive answers. I`m done speculating for this morning. Happy Hoffing to all! Just don`t take it out of my share of PED! LOL

 

[aridash]

... on 90% payback my run would be 3 ped more expensive, count up for thousands of cycled peds this sums up

Fluske is right. if the theory is correct, over a longer period your expense would be returned, to maintain a consistant payback.

 

[Majstorex]

Well John, you have taken the time to search for some of the big hits that happend to a FEW ppl.
What about all those ppl that have also allready payed the ATH amount, but still havent got it?
I think we can easaly say there is atleast 20k of them, now can u tell me when will they get their turn, in some 50 years?
Couse by this theory they all should be getting one, eventualy.

 

[Jennson]

Fluske is right. if the theory is correct, over a longer period your expense would be returned, to maintain a consistant payback.

Well when we assume a certain percentage is payed back and further assume the actual number is 90 percent than
let's assume to kill a certain amount of mobs with setup A on average costs you 100 ped. Now taking our figure from above we can assume on average you get 90 ped back in loot Thus the run costs you 10 ped in "MA-Fee".

Now assume you kill the same number of mobs with setup B which costs 150 PED to kill the same amount of mobs. And also further assume you get back the fixed 90% makes 135 PED. MAkes 15 PED "MA-Fee" for the same result. The difference of 5 PED is the actual more cost per one run ...

now imagine you make 10 runs per day 6 days per week and calculate the more cost for a year - and might come to the conclusion dpp matters when you hunt a lot even in this model

 

[milena jingles]

^^ How fits this in your Theorie ?

http://www.entropiatracker.com/player.asp?mode=viewPlayer&PlayerID=166132

 

[wizzszz]

^^ How fits this in your Theorie ?

http://www.entropiatracker.com/player.asp?mode=viewPlayer&PlayerID=166132

That's either a player who took a loong break and wasted his PEDs before the tracker was made - or a complete noob:

A lot of companies out there give away freebies to get customers hooked, not really a surprise when MA does so, too.

 

[Arch]

^^ How fits this in your Theorie ?

http://www.entropiatracker.com/player.asp?mode=viewPlayer&PlayerID=166132

lol... was wondering about that when i saw it this morning!!! glad u looked it up!!!

 

[JoseMTacoral]

I will try to explain in my poor English how I think works the relationship "accrued expenses" vs. "likely to get a major loot. "

I think the theory is essentially correct, but what determines the amount of spending is not the amount of loot that the hunter will receive, but in which "loot pool" the system should get the loot.

The different "loot pool" have different levels of loot distributions. If the total expenses for a specific period system assigns to the avatar the "loot pool "A"", then the avatar will have more chances of getting a "no loot" and fewer opportunities to obtain, for example, ATH. For an avatar that is assigned the loot pool "E " (because it accumulates more ammo expenditure and decay) this relationship will improve dramatically.

So all the avatars, regardless of what is consumed in ammo and decay, can get a ATH or "no loot", the difference will be in the chances of success.

After assigning the level of loot, the system determines which objects integrate that loot. It is likely that once again the level of accrued expenses for the avatar to determine the odds of getting certain types of objects.

 

[Zeke Sirrus]

i recall a soc member who had spent months on CND globaling, Hofing, cycling lots (though starting from little not that much) and on his first hunting trip on the planet popped a 12k atrox. a great many avatars are "lucky" in this way, do they all then lead an early life of poor loot to rebalance?

It's as if you read my biography, I have had a very similar experience. Not feeling quite so lucky right now though

 

[M Rufen Power]

It's an interesting theory, but there's another way to view it. If it is a simple loot algorithm, a long enough run will cause you to approach the overall average loot return just because of long term averages. The standard deviation is very large in EU, but it seems to follow what would be suggested by a simple algorithm. If you examine the study that was done for that publication a couple years back, it also seemed to back this up as well.

But that being said, even if you were the one to pay his ATH, he'll eventually be the one to feed yours. It all averages out if you put in enough clicks.

I think that is why when someone does hit an uber they withdraw it, but in anycase whatever they had left if anything they would eventually lose it or average out.

One thing though..

My avatar is one of the unlucky ones. I could agree that i might have to cycle through alot of peds to get back 90 - 95% of my loot but this is also what is putting me and others off.

I spent 1k ped the other day on CP without any globals and the return was around 65%. I have cycled alot of peds over the years but rarely had any HoFs. This is also why i stopped depositing the way i used to do because my return on 300 - 500 ped hunts were always in the low 60%. Sure i could keep wasting peds and camp the mobs and pay for my own loot, but why should i if there is no secure way to know that if i continue i will get back 95% of what i have spent over the years...

How much does a person have to cycle to get back anything... It doesn´t have to be an ATH but i think most people are struggling with getting enough back on the runs to pay for repairs and more ammo..

Am i due something soon, i doubt it, i should have had something a long time ago then if we talk about deposited/cycled peds.

It can´t be that i am always hunting the wrong time and in the wrong place. =)

Good point.

damn you must really like the concept of EU to still be here

, MA commends you .

I believe in the 90% tt return & also now in the clock/timer theory. I've seen different ppl/groups getting HOF's within minutes of 1st one paying out. My soc got a scip hof then another team got a proteron hof... There was also a time when I camped bristles & within the first couple of minutes landed 2 globals both containing h400's, the next following day same thing happened. After that for the next few weeks hardly anything.

I also believe that it is just not solely about the RR, as a fellow soc mate of mine got an ATH's which was 1/5 the value he deposited into EU. Here is the link. https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/showthread.php?187945-welcomed-heart-attack!!&highlight=sicc Can you say that he paid for that one or that it was just a jackpot win?

Also have another friend who hit about 5 ubers in the span of less than a month equaling to about 10k in TT profit, with mu was about 12k. But if he were to keep on playing with the peds he didnt withdraw he would lose it all eventually given enough time. That is what I except to happen, then again EU is dynamic . Here is the persons profile on tracker: http://www.entropiatracker.com/player.asp?mode=viewPlayer&PlayerID=145430. He is a complete new player has only depo'd $20. There was a thread made about him last year, where I explained his story in more detail.

So I partially believe in JohnC's post, there are other exceptions so this isnt uncommon behaviour from the loot system. Like Stormer with his 6 ath's & numberous big uber hits.

 

[Zacariaz]

As far as I'm concerned, I've known the answer to this question a long time and kinda got it confirmed when I did the atrox iron challenge.

The more you hunt, the bigger the expense end the greater the chance of hitting big. So while some will loose big because they're unlucky and some will win big because they're lucky, in the end, in theory at least, you can't beat the system and you'll pay the bill your self.

 

[D-Low]

REALLY???? lol

For all of you that have ever gone to a Casino and won a little and lost a lot or maybe even won a lot and lost a little but you still went back, I would love to see your SUPPORT CASES YOU have against them. Lol

And for those of you that have never been to a Casino you’re in luck because you have one right in your home now lol walk in whenever you wish, play as long as you like spend as much as you want. There’s free food drink and you even have a place to lay your head when you sleepy.

Nothing against you JohnCapital, I think you’re a swell guy. Hell I’d even let you date my sister lol

But when.... DEAR GOD WHEN will the day come when everyone understands there is NO magic, NO Secret Formulas, No high-tech superdupper NASA math formulas, No Loooooong month year end Research keep track notes. There’s not even a 1988 Dustin Hoffman Tom Cruise Rain Man see the matchsticks fall and count how many that hit the floor, that will ever help you do more then MAYBE break even the longer you stay in this Casino…

The only people that I have ever talk to that said they have made a profit or keep making profits are people that craft and sale or buy and sale ALL-D-TIME… And maybe Mr. I mortgaged my house to make a profit NEVERDIE. Lol

I had a guy in my soc back in the day that told me he started play EU due to the fact that he was dropping 2 or 3K a weekend at the OUTSIDE Casino and his wife was getting pissed with him being gone so much. So where is he now? Right here with the rest of us In the INSIDE Casino, one of the BIG DOGS with all the best toys…. Lol But he will be the first to tell you that over the last 3 years he has lost a hell of a lot more then he has gotten back. But he loves the game. He love TO HAVE FUN…

Ask your self how much money you want to drop and lose that will not take food off your table, drop it in and JUST HAVE FUN…. And if you say you can’t have fun win you lose money, DON’T log into the Casino, It’s easy ;-)

So…… With all that being said, I want to thank you reading and I will see you out there.

Oh Oh and….

Do The Monkey Dance…

 

[UnaAlconbury]

but if this is true then dam/pec dont have any value at all.....just use an high dam/sec unlimited weapon to reduce defensecosts....


if this is true an noob at would be better of using an doa or maddox4 then an kors400

I would say in reality tt loot is in relation to damage dealt (hp eliminated), not tt of active costs. We only use tt of active costs as a 'substitute' since it's easier and more convenient to track.

 

[fluske]

I would say in reality tt loot is in relation to damage dealt (hp eliminated), not tt of active costs. We only use tt of active costs as a 'substitute' since it's easier and more convenient to track.

that would make more sense yes,cause then eco is very important as it should be in my opinion

 

[Bolivar]

And yes, there are cases such as this: 3 day old noob gets 27,000ped HOF (01-29-2006)

Could the noob be an uber who chipped out all of his skills?

 

[Arch]

For all of you that have ever gone to a Casino and won a little and lost a lot or maybe even won a lot and lost a little but you still went back, I would love to see your SUPPORT CASES YOU have against them. Lol

And for those of you that have never been to a Casino you’re in luck because you have one right in your home now lol walk in whenever you wish, play as long as you like spend as much as you want. There’s free food drink and you even have a place to lay your head when you sleepy.

Nothing against you JohnCapital, I think you’re a swell guy. Hell I’d even let you date my sister lol

But when.... DEAR GOD WHEN will the day come when everyone understands there is NO magic, NO Secret Formulas, No high-tech superdupper NASA math formulas, No Loooooong month year end Research keep track notes. There’s not even a 1988 Dustin Hoffman Tom Cruise Rain Man see the matchsticks fall and count how many that hit the floor, that will ever help you do more then MAYBE break even the longer you stay in this Casino…

The only people that I have ever talk to that said they have made a profit or keep making profits are people that craft and sale or buy and sale ALL-D-TIME… And maybe Mr. I mortgaged my house to make a profit NEVERDIE. Lol

I had a guy in my soc back in the day that told me he started play EU due to the fact that he was dropping 2 or 3K a weekend at the OUTSIDE Casino and his wife was getting pissed with him being gone so much. So where is he now? Right here with the rest of us In the INSIDE Casino, one of the BIG DOGS with all the best toys…. Lol But he will be the first to tell you that over the last 3 years he has lost a hell of a lot more then has put in. But he loves the game. He love TO HAVE FUN…

Ask your self how much money you want to drop and lose that will not take food off your table, drop it in and JUST HAVE FUN…. And if you say you can’t have fun win you lose money, DON’T log into the Casino, It’s easy ;-)

So…… With all that being said, I want to thank you reading and I will see you out there.

Oh Oh and….

Do The Monkey Dance…

agree 100%, none of it proves that it is not a slot machine... and the noob uber loots reinforce that idea.

 

[M Rufen Power]

Wanted to post this quote from Goni taking from one of the theads in the OP by star.

Damn 7 Globals in Run 7 and not Break Even, bad average loot!
Now that proofs that this people hunting big on CND pay for their HoFs themself.

 

[Malacalypse]

We have called this the rebalanceing theory in our soc for at least three years, and yes it does make sense. Throw in some random jackpot hofs to confuse the masses a little and its a pretty solid business solution.

Also anyone who quits before hitting their rebalancing uber will be pure profit for MA.

 

[Charlie Gloom]

I agree with the first post, except for those early get you sucked in loots ma gives, before you have lost the peds to get it (I feel these are here to get you addicted to game and you will lose them back quick enough).

The only problem I see when people complain is there using guns that have higher mu and they count the mu as money lost that should be returned to them. Should be common sense but it is not to some. MU paid you will never get back. All returns should first be based on TT. Then look at mu's spent vs return to figure out profit or losses on your end.