YALT - yet another loot theory

[Msturlese]

It is a long weekend, rather boring from work side, craft machine is running,... time to propose some ideas
1. i assume that 100% return is not the cap, cap is 100% less conversion risk less skill values to pay for PP, MA
2. i trust the almighty algorithm, MA statements and Swedish gambling commissions

empiric evidence shows that green lines are on average 1% as TT value
worst case of recycling is 80% Calypso shrapnels that become 0.8% return
empiric evidence is that (before repeat) codex reward 0.5% of cycled ped
official statement (the in-famous 2017 field test of looter and eff) show 98% average return on relatively low cycler
official statement referred to LOOTER PROFESSION AND EFFICIENCY state "MAXIMUM 7% IMPACT", some deviant reading came to 7% one and also the other linear progressive
conversion of "better DPP" items lead to "higher eff" in old school items so eff is all in all a side effect of "lower kill cost" with different declinations
no personal loot pool but ped spent ped returned have a correlation (i will not dig into a correlation matrix)
MY personal experience (so far with weapons ranging from 55 to 80% and looter 1...61 show numbers compatible with the model

i look for confutations or similar experience.

The fresh new bullshit for your comments:

assumption 1: Looter profession interact with efficiency
assumption 2: Looter profession AND efficency have a cap to stay into the loot2.0 scope constrains
assumption 3: the house never looses
assumption 4: NO Gambling is involved (the gambling DECEPTION is due to some fail to understand statistics from participants (and martingale effects on undercapitalized ped card)

now my hypotesis:
cap of (efficiency+looter) is 140 (sum of the values)
total effect of this is 7%
effect of a one point variation of looter or efficiency is 1/140TH or 0.007142 of a 7%
MAX RETURN is (before conversion) 100%-1% (green lines)( - 0.5%( non repeatable codex) or 98.5%
minimum return is 98.5%-7% = 91.5% (limit of 0% looter 0% eff)

hence the statement on REAL RETURN RANGE
a new player on TT gears has a REAL (eff+looter combo) of (55/140) *0.07 = (91.5% "baseline"+ 0.0274 = 0.9425 (rounded)
a top gamer has a 98.5% expected return

total progress allowed by any stat and eff increase is 4.25%
maximum return for capped stats with Mayhem conversion is 99.3% on capped stats (average)

now the sinewave/rebalancing

the numbers above are obtainable on an INFINITE NUMBER OF KILLS OF THE SAME COST
due to teh randomness of multipliers and a finite state machine that is probabluy a prime number where on 7 stetes
1/7 is "way over ammo"
2/7 are "around 5% of ammo cost"
2/7 are 70 to 80% returns
2/7 are 30 to 70 % return
switching monsters back and forth can lead to swings due to the "way over ammo" multiplier happening on a small kill cost input as a seed.

NOW SOME COMMON EXAMPLES
a. my weapon, a modmerc 72% eff setup and 61 looter = 133/140*0.07+0.915 = 0.9815 expected
b. a UBER 90 looter 95% (damn he has a twen a-3) 185/140th capped at 7% = 98.5%
c. JBK with a grindhouse (yes he posted 100 lotoer in all kind so is a nice sexample GZ john) 100/140*0.07+0.915 = 0.9649

THE REVERSE ENGINEERING AND MAYHEM VENDOR DECREASING EFF ON LEVEL

simply deducting personal LOOTER from 140 shouws the CAPPED EFF level (it is coherent with some more experienced players that tell how 60 looter seems being sufficient 80 looter max your stats advice.

so... a 25 looter player can not max out even with a LP40 when he can use it... BUT he will max out as he hit 48 looter
"the magix power of lp70 and bp70" confirms these levels... at 70 combat it is rather common to have 48 looter so you are maxed with those fantastic weapons
teh "reduced eff in mayhem vendor" is a deception... DPP is prevailing on those items, lower eff, because of Looter of potential user is higher and eff is not as desiderable as it is lowering cost per kill to cycle more (would confirm the YALT model)

open to fame or shame. i keep one post for some chart if discussion comes to some conclusion

 

[Msturlese]

reserved for future charts

 

[miathan]

1% (green lines)( - 0.5%( non repeatable codex)

Just want to point out that skill gains does not have a TT value in this sense.
That is, when MA gives you 100 PED of skills now transaction of PED value has happened.
For you to transfer 100 PED of skills to your credit card you (or someone else) need to loot an ESI to extract the skills.
If you would TT the extracted skill implant the actual TT value comes from the ESI, not your skills.

The TT value of skills is just a way to give skill points a value in equivalent ESI value.

I didn't really read the rest of the theories except that it doesn't seem to be backed up by any data.
They seem testable though.
Take a look at https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/...d-on-actual-data-as-of-march-3rd-2022.286664/
it explains one method to test theories like this.

 

[Thorns Rose]

I am using Occam's Razor theory..

Last Friday of month in USA and first 3 days..many get checks and Europe

More money spent..more money to be spent ingame on globals and HoFs.

check crafting at beginning of every month and stats ..spend baby.

 

[unufain8]

do you ever play this game? You are full of theories all the time.

 

[Msturlese]

do you ever play this game? You are full of theories all the time.

i ithink it is not tied to the topic but yes, i play the game, i cycle about 300k per month, not big, not small, reached 420k total skill points and 800 attributes so i think i play a decent amount of game. In case of further interest i also enjoy it.
but let's try not to derail from topic that is REAL IMPACT of stats is lower than the legend tells (in my probably faulty opinion)

 

[dimod]

It is a long weekend, rather boring from work side, craft machine is running,... time to propose some ideas
1. i assume that 100% return is not the cap, cap is 100% less conversion risk less skill values to pay for PP, MA
2. i trust the almighty algorithm, MA statements and Swedish gambling commissions

empiric evidence shows that green lines are on average 1% as TT value
worst case of recycling is 80% Calypso shrapnels that become 0.8% return
empiric evidence is that (before repeat) codex reward 0.5% of cycled ped
official statement (the in-famous 2017 field test of looter and eff) show 98% average return on relatively low cycler
official statement referred to LOOTER PROFESSION AND EFFICIENCY state "MAXIMUM 7% IMPACT", some deviant reading came to 7% one and also the other linear progressive
conversion of "better DPP" items lead to "higher eff" in old school items so eff is all in all a side effect of "lower kill cost" with different declinations
no personal loot pool but ped spent ped returned have a correlation (i will not dig into a correlation matrix)
MY personal experience (so far with weapons ranging from 55 to 80% and looter 1...61 show numbers compatible with the model

i look for confutations or similar experience.

The fresh new bullshit for your comments:

assumption 1: Looter profession interact with efficiency
assumption 2: Looter profession AND efficency have a cap to stay into the loot2.0 scope constrains
assumption 3: the house never looses
assumption 4: NO Gambling is involved (the gambling DECEPTION is due to some fail to understand statistics from participants (and martingale effects on undercapitalized ped card)

now my hypotesis:
cap of (efficiency+looter) is 140 (sum of the values)
total effect of this is 7%
effect of a one point variation of looter or efficiency is 1/140TH or 0.007142 of a 7%
MAX RETURN is (before conversion) 100%-1% (green lines)( - 0.5%( non repeatable codex) or 98.5%
minimum return is 98.5%-7% = 91.5% (limit of 0% looter 0% eff)

hence the statement on REAL RETURN RANGE
a new player on TT gears has a REAL (eff+looter combo) of (55/140) *0.07 = (91.5% "baseline"+ 0.0274 = 0.9425 (rounded)
a top gamer has a 98.5% expected return

total progress allowed by any stat and eff increase is 4.25%
maximum return for capped stats with Mayhem conversion is 99.3% on capped stats (average)

now the sinewave/rebalancing

the numbers above are obtainable on an INFINITE NUMBER OF KILLS OF THE SAME COST
due to teh randomness of multipliers and a finite state machine that is probabluy a prime number where on 7 stetes
1/7 is "way over ammo"
2/7 are "around 5% of ammo cost"
2/7 are 70 to 80% returns
2/7 are 30 to 70 % return
switching monsters back and forth can lead to swings due to the "way over ammo" multiplier happening on a small kill cost input as a seed.

NOW SOME COMMON EXAMPLES
a. my weapon, a modmerc 72% eff setup and 61 looter = 133/140*0.07+0.915 = 0.9815 expected
b. a UBER 90 looter 95% (damn he has a twen a-3) 185/140th capped at 7% = 98.5%
c. JBK with a grindhouse (yes he posted 100 lotoer in all kind so is a nice sexample GZ john) 100/140*0.07+0.915 = 0.9649

THE REVERSE ENGINEERING AND MAYHEM VENDOR DECREASING EFF ON LEVEL

simply deducting personal LOOTER from 140 shouws the CAPPED EFF level (it is coherent with some more experienced players that tell how 60 looter seems being sufficient 80 looter max your stats advice.

so... a 25 looter player can not max out even with a LP40 when he can use it... BUT he will max out as he hit 48 looter
"the magix power of lp70 and bp70" confirms these levels... at 70 combat it is rather common to have 48 looter so you are maxed with those fantastic weapons
teh "reduced eff in mayhem vendor" is a deception... DPP is prevailing on those items, lower eff, because of Looter of potential user is higher and eff is not as desiderable as it is lowering cost per kill to cycle more (would confirm the YALT model)

open to fame or shame. i keep one post for some chart if discussion comes to some conclusion

I asked chatgpt and it says game does have a gambling factor as they have acquired gambling license. I take chatgpt as word of God ofcourse. AI knows better.

 

[PreyNaika]

Just want to point out that skill gains does not have a TT value in this sense.
That is, when MA gives you 100 PED of skills now transaction of PED value has happened.
For you to transfer 100 PED of skills to your credit card you (or someone else) need to loot an ESI to extract the skills.
If you would TT the extracted skill implant the actual TT value comes from the ESI, not your skills.

The TT value of skills is just a way to give skill points a value in equivalent ESI value.

I didn't really read the rest of the theories except that it doesn't seem to be backed up by any data.
They seem testable though.
Take a look at https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/...d-on-actual-data-as-of-march-3rd-2022.286664/
it explains one method to test theories like this.

Not saying you are not right

But i see it diferent , skills got a ped value while still in your Avatar,
Everything in entropia got a value

Codex also rewards in PED not in points

 

[John B Knight]

Not saying you are not right

But i see it diferent , skills got a ped value while still in your Avatar,
Everything in entropia got a value

Codex also rewards in PED not in points

in my opinion:
Avatars gain skills in ped which are stored as points, so mindark never has to guarantee the tt value of skills if someone were to liquidate their account but at the same time they can refer to skills as a form of ped gained through loot which likely puts all avatars above 100% and therefor on the safe side of any gambling enquirery.
The additional need of ESI's to withdraw the skills ensures full control on how much tt value of skills can be extracted and is additionally payed for in loot by players.
In regards to above theory, it is quite interesting - i dont have the data to say if its right or wrong (not yet) , but i know for certain that my returns are easily up there with what some of the high efficiency hunters claim theirs to be.
Im currently looking in the possibilty of dropping down to 50% efficiency and see if returns stay the same, but will see if i get the right weapon for it.

 

[Msturlese]

thank you John that would be a great field test on the cap probably a test weapon to keep the fire power is a xtlc1000 class

 

[John B Knight]

thank you John that would be a great field test on the cap probably a test weapon to keep the fire power is a xtlc1000 class

i would love to run a couple million cycle through the terminator if someone can make me a contact to bori redsky keystone - seems he hasnt globaled since 2021

 

[PreyNaika]

in my opinion:
Avatars gain skills in ped which are stored as points, so mindark never has to guarantee the tt value of skills if someone were to liquidate their account but at the same time they can refer to skills as a form of ped gained through loot which likely puts all avatars above 100% and therefor on the safe side of any gambling enquirery.
The additional need of ESI's to withdraw the skills ensures full control on how much tt value of skills can be extracted and is additionally payed for in loot by players.
In regards to above theory, it is quite interesting - i dont have the data to say if its right or wrong (not yet) , but i know for certain that my returns are easily up there with what some of the high efficiency hunters claim theirs to be.
Im currently looking in the possibilty of dropping down to 50% efficiency and see if returns stay the same, but will see if i get the right weapon for it.

Exactly thats how i see it too

 

[halftoasted]

I like it. Here some things I think about the whole looting really worth considering.


a) DPP is not as relevant stat as people believe even if it's a a statistic that is a useful guide and has function.
Why ?

Scenarios:
1. Uber take a gun and kill a 1000 hp mob in 4 normal hits.
Strong Consideration: Loot/mu is returned based on pec SPENT which include healing and decay
Result: Spent pec per hp is increased by X via healing tool and armor reducing overal efficiency of the kill
Conclusion: Many ubers are much less efficiency than they expect and DPP term is wrong in it's scientific use and it should be seen as SPHP(Spent Per HP)

2. Uber take the same gun but kill the mob with 2 big crits!
Fact: Loot is returned based on spending, at 2 hit the mob probably never hit and only decaying part is gun+ammo
Result: Spent per hp is VERY LOW! Maybe 45% normal kill cost, higher share of MU items much more likely and often on small mobs result in nearly 0 shrap.
Conclusion: Many ubers skip on very LOW SPHP kills by hunting too big where they may have much more interesting loot over time killing a bit smaller.

Ending conclusion: Should the uber miss a lot and take a lot of armor hits/heals due to unlucky streak. The DPP also become irrelevant. It's a interesting tool to see the range of DPP a gun can do on a luck or unlucky streak as it will be much less or much higher than the average on each individual kills of a mob that take less than 10 hits without crit. This is why I feel it's not as important as many may believe because shooting a SIB lvl 100 TWEN on a icarus mob still only yield shrap from the overkill.

b) Skill gain is substracted from your spent per hp.

Strong consideration: Many players experience a lot less loot during a strong skill boost or skill pill. Some hunters go as far as to stop hunting or waste pills sweating on auto tool afk at a group to get some gains at least while burning the pills.
Presumed result: from myself to others I seen that when I do a kill with unusual amount of skill gainS I usualy get a bit shafted on the return. I can still global and hof but it's like not the same and seem to often yield more MU items.
Conclusion: Skill growth could hinder TT return at the benefit of extra MU.

 

[PreyNaika]

Morey got a xtlc1000 t10 for rent if i temember right

 

[atomicstorm]

in my opinion:
Avatars gain skills in ped which are stored as points, so mindark never has to guarantee the tt value of skills if someone were to liquidate their account but at the same time they can refer to skills as a form of ped gained through loot which likely puts all avatars above 100% and therefor on the safe side of any gambling enquirery.
The additional need of ESI's to withdraw the skills ensures full control on how much tt value of skills can be extracted and is additionally payed for in loot by players.
In regards to above theory, it is quite interesting - i dont have the data to say if its right or wrong (not yet) , but i know for certain that my returns are easily up there with what some of the high efficiency hunters claim theirs to be.
Im currently looking in the possibilty of dropping down to 50% efficiency and see if returns stay the same, but will see if i get the right weapon for it.

A particular planet developer (2 in fact) spilled a few beans, and from that you can extrapolate quite a lot.

1. PPs have to pay for their skill kickback/bonuses.
2. PPs have to pay for the 1% conversion on shrapnel. This is probably why you see Calypso as Shrapnel heavy and all other PPs as not (smaller budgets).

I can't prove it but I have always wondered, since Entropia has to be net zero, that skill bonuses/skill pills would cut in your TT return. It's only theory and needs a lot of time for investigating because it would create a lot of volatility. It at the very least, without the skill pills, is a payment for the decay you give to Mindark (theory).

 

[iulrorck]

skills should have a value, i think it s extracty from the tt return. when you sell it, the esi tt gost to MA as decay. the value of skill is still stuck in the universe, could be a garanty value for MA as it's unextractable. codex is same way, use for improve the MA entropia world vault. maybe this growing value bring interest as it s stuck. and help to give the company stability. all is theorie of course

 

[Naomi]

1 - skill gains do not have value, and don't have an impact, they are considered a bonus, not a value
2 - your 7% total effect presumption is not correct:
- the 7% MA stated is a ROUNDED number, truth is, that it is not exactly 7%
- looter and efficiency EACH count for a little over 7%
this has been tested and proven to be the case

 

[Msturlese]

@ Naomi: green lines show a ped number, codex has a ped number, you are free not to value yuo r skill set, mine is worth 32k TT as per wikipedia skill model. considering it as a bonus is legit from your expectations, but in term of "game returns 100%" the amount of skill in TT value can round up (see JBK postm, it is edpressed in a bettere english) but this is why it is a theory and not a sure thing

i disagree on the model provided on forum, it is based on assumptions the like range is to 100% and we know that 100% is not allowed for conversion risk that would milk MA during mayhem for a maxed avatar so the model on forum is flawed.

evidence is that no one loots 84% ona verage (your statement is OVER 7 i used 8 and 100-16 is 84 at game begin.

let's go for a field test
edited i am saving numbers for my actual stast

 

[Ferial]

evidence is that no one loots 84% ona verage (your statement is OVER 7 i used 8 and 100-16 is 84 at game begin.

There are several problems here;

1. There are no 0% efficiency items that can be effectively used by a 0-day avatar (to my knowledge).

2. You would not get a big enough sample from a single avatar at "0-day" parameters before they skilled out of the range.

You would need to find a decent amount of 0-day avatars and provide them with the tools they need, as well as the knowledge they need for testing. Then you would have to account for potential mistakes made in data gathering. All in all it is an environment that is difficult to collect clean data in.

I find it unlikely that we will ever see a true, tested baseline value for returns because of the above. Now if MA allowed multiple accounts, it would be rather easy to test.

Now on the actual topic;
It is an interesting read. It is a theory that should be rather easy, although time consuming, to test for someone with the "right parameters" to do so.

I don't like the idea of this theory. I don't know if it is because it is misaligned with my beliefs, or if it is something else. But it is going to be interesting seeing where you are going to go with this.

 

[Bones]

Can't this ChatGPT fellow give an opinion on a loot theory ?

 

[John B Knight]

1. There are no 0% efficiency items that can be effectively used by a 0-day avatar (to my knowledge).

snowball gun to a volunteering starter/relative and supporting with chipping out to keep at 0 should give a sample at very little expense

 

[atomicstorm]

@ Naomi: green lines show a ped number, codex has a ped number, you are free not to value yuo r skill set, mine is worth 32k TT as per wikipedia skill model. considering it as a bonus is legit from your expectations, but in term of "game returns 100%" the amount of skill in TT value can round up (see JBK postm, it is edpressed in a bettere english) but this is why it is a theory and not a sure thing

i disagree on the model provided on forum, it is based on assumptions the like range is to 100% and we know that 100% is not allowed for conversion risk that would milk MA during mayhem for a maxed avatar so the model on forum is flawed.

evidence is that no one loots 84% ona verage (your statement is OVER 7 i used 8 and 100-16 is 84 at game begin.

let's go for a field test
edited i am saving numbers for my actual stast

Skills have no value. The ESI has the value, for which you extract and put on the ESI minus 10%. You can say that your skills are X value, but if the avatar was liquidated, it would be 0. You would need equal to the ESI (minus the 10%) to extract it or you can do like many others have done and sold their avatars 2-5x over based on this value.

 

[John B Knight]

1 - skill gains do not have value, and don't have an impact, they are considered a bonus, not a value
2 - your 7% total effect presumption is not correct:
- the 7% MA stated is a ROUNDED number, truth is, that it is not exactly 7%
- looter and efficiency EACH count for a little over 7%
this has been tested and proven to be the case

if efficiency was truely separate from looter and accounting for 7%+ of total returns at max (at linear progression) then using my bp-130 at 67.5% efficiency should make it impossible to be above 98% tt return a difference to my actual returns that is larger then my annual deposits which i mainly use for gear upgrades...

 

[anonimity]

spoiler alert: neither looter nor efficiency matter. only the grace of lootius on a given day.

 

[atomicstorm]

spoiler alert: neither looter nor efficiency matter. only the grace of lootius on a given day.

and chosen status.

Probably more truth than fiction.

 

[Naomi]

if efficiency was truely separate from looter and accounting for 7%+ of total returns at max (at linear progression) then using my bp-130 at 67.5% efficiency should make it impossible to be above 98% tt return a difference to my actual returns that is larger then my annual deposits which i mainly use for gear upgrades...

Actually, after deliberating with a couple of knowledgeable friends, your expected tt return is 97.64%.
That is with eff and looter separately calculated.
So your results actually confirm what we said earlier

 

[John B Knight]

Actually, after deliberating with a couple of knowledgeable friends, your expected tt return is 97.64%.
That is with eff and looter separately calculated.
So your results actually confirm what we said earlier

you seem to not understand what im saying - i have over 100k ped tt return more per year then you think that i should

 

[Jhereg]

you seem to not understand what im saying - i have over 100k ped tt return more per year then you think that i should

Real tracking numbers without shrapnel conversions included please

 

[Msturlese]

Actually, after deliberating with a couple of knowledgeable friends, your expected tt return is 97.64%.
That is with eff and looter separately calculated.
So your results actually confirm what we said earlier

this proves that your calculations dont reflect the world.

john shots about 10m per year ... so0 he is saying he is getting 98.5 with stats that command different.
the real formula is yet to be debunked.

(model must adapt to world, not world to models)

anyway it is more about " cant reach 100" and "minimum is over 92"
if the range is (asw i suppose 4.25% or is 8% it seems to me ancillary
we are talking about

COMPRESSING best-worst skill and gears impact
Lowering Expectations on better skill/ better gears effect

 

[Jhereg]

Try fitting your model to my data. You know, the data I actually spent time to gather.

I ask about shrapnel conversion to JBK because that can easily explain the difference. Clarifying the methods used to collect his return data would help quite a bit.