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CLD Future Price Speculation

HardWrath

HardWrath

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Max HardWrath Mayhem
At the time of this posting, the current rates per CLD are as follows:

Street Trade = 1350~1360 PED
Auction Buyout = 1360~1370 PED

So fast forward 60 days and what do you think the price will be per CLD?

Do you think the value will slowly keep going up, or will it start to go down?


May 14th 2013 EDIT: Prices reaching 1400 on auction

July 8th 2013 EDIT: Prices are ~1475 on auction now
 
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Up :) Seems people still buying.
 
I speculate up, there was an extended excess on the market, that is now dwindling down to people who plan on keeping more long term. Demand should increase as people hold on to them, and...more players come to the game.

Weekly return is irrelevant, many don't even care, and those who do, are more than happy with a mere 15%, these are great return. even at double value they are justified to buy imo. It is more long term at that point, but it still beats the bank.

That and when the lots, voting, and housing come out, I predict a huge influx, as everyone will want a house, a few will pay abnormally for those opportunities.

Clamoring to get the 9 deeds at that time is going to be an expensive affair I reckon.

so, in 60 days... depends if we hear about the lots and voting:
without news maybe 1600 max
with some news, or even some moon hype, working ads, maybe 2k max.
with an influx of disgruntled players, maybe 1200 lowest.
 
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In 60 day? It will be summer, the dead season, many people will have a break and before doing that they will trade some of their gear for clds, directly or by selling out first. When it happen, the offer of clds will become lower for a while, and the prices will go up a bit, but not too much because the weekly ROI will be total shit as well.

The only news that may affect the price of clds are those related directly to them, like implementation of the land lots, but such news won't come in the summer and hardly this year at all. Anything else, be that a moon, five new planets or rugaritz-rush on foma, totally doesn't have anything to do with clds.

All in all, I think clds are going to wobble around 1400-1420 during the summer but will drop back to 1350 in the autumn.
 
preducting price rise is easy.
I want someone to predict when the price will drop significantly :laugh:
 
Just my two pecs...

Just my :twocents:...

Since most of the posts I've read about CLDs have been more or less linking its payouts with irl investments sorta stuff, so if I assume that that's the sort of returns buyers of CLDs would expect and deem acceptable...then...

Assumption:
Acceptable interest rate (p.a.): 10% (REITs give a return of about 7-8% and then I include the 1% withdrawl fee charged by MA and round up just for the sake of it...)

Averaged payout per week by CLD (from start till now): 4.63 peds

Then, (4.63/7)*365 = 241.42 peds

So if the averaged payout per week remains around this same level, I reckon the price of CLDs per deed would slowly creep up and level out at 2400 to 2500 peds eventually?

:tongue2:
 
sawachika said:
Just my :twocents:...

Since most of the posts I've read about CLDs have been more or less linking its payouts with irl investments sorta stuff, so if I assume that that's the sort of returns buyers of CLDs would expect and deem acceptable...then...

Assumption:
Acceptable interest rate (p.a.): 10% (REITs give a return of about 7-8% and then I include the 1% withdrawl fee charged by MA and round up just for the sake of it...)

Averaged payout per week by CLD (from start till now): 4.63 peds

Then, (4.63/7)*365 = 241.42 peds

So if the averaged payout per week remains around this same level, I reckon the price of CLDs per deed would slowly creep up and level out at 2400 to 2500 peds eventually?

:tongue2:
Click to expand...

As for today, i currently have a huge stock of unplanted tulips , contact my holland office as soon as possible before this oportunity window is no longer open.
 
ermik said:
As for today, i currently have a huge stock of unplanted tulips , contact my holland office as soon as possible before this oportunity window is no longer open.
Click to expand...

Hahaha....sounds like an impossible price huh? Then perhaps it might open some people's eyes and "not" link and relate CLDs to irl investments? :silly2:

See the paradox here? People buy REITs and hold onto them for their 7% to 8% dividends p.a. and its considered lucrative...and so if the CLD price reaches this sort of point then perhaps I will agree to CLDs being seen as some sort of irl investment.

If people think that the CLD price rising to this sort of level is insane, then arguing CLDs as if they are better than some irl investment is just plain wrong.
 
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sawachika said:
Hahaha....sounds like an impossible price huh? Then perhaps it might open some people's eyes and "not" link and relate CLDs to irl investments? :silly2:
Click to expand...

When people buy and value an item or resource based on its ROI its quite balanced.

When people buy and value an item or resource solely based on the items projected rise in value rather than the ROI or potential use of the item or resource, its speculation.

Most people are actually speculating, since they assume after 4 years, they will get back what they paid if they sell, when in reality such guarantees does not exist.

When you put 50k usd in a swedish bank, if youre a good dealer you can get a 5% interest, if the bank goes belly up and bankrupt. You still get your money back from the goverment.

When you put 50k usd into EU, you give that money to MA, in exchange they give your avatar 500.000 ped on the ped card, in virtual currency , that MA own. Not you.

So should the ROI on virtual stock ( wich basicly is what CLD´s are ) be valued in comparision to IRL investments that to a much greater extent are secured both by regulations and laws?

Nope.

Remember MA can change ingame mechanics and pull down CLD price to 900-1000ped easy, without loosing face in regards to promised avg ROI.

I just cant see the risk vs reward in depo 140k ped just to get 3-400 ped / week added to my avatars ped card.

Noone knows how much it will cost to build a house, on the 9 deeds land you must claim.

IF the urge for a house were so great, why arent currect houses ingame seeling for more than a few k ?

Im sceptical, becuase that works in the long run, sure from time to time someone more eager to risk passes by and makes it, but most of the times as i progress i keep passing by the people running past me earlier laugning at my conservative aproach.

cheers

ermik
 
ermik said:
Noone knows how much it will cost to build a house, on the 9 deeds land you must claim.

IF the urge for a house were so great, why arent currect houses ingame seeling for more than a few k ?
Click to expand...

The big question with these new houses is: will there be a real and functional reason to own one?

Aside from vanity, what is the reason for owning one of the current in-game houses?

I suspect they will be different than the current houses we have available in game
 
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HardWrath said:
Aside from vanity, what is the reason for owning one of the current in-game houses?

I suspect they will be different than the current houses we have available in game
Click to expand...

With 60k deeds, 9 deeds per lot, even if you'll need to have, say, 9 lots to put a house (9x9 deeds, and most likely it will need less), that's still well over 700 houses. Giving them any real use (btw I can't think up any) would seriously shake up the economy :)

And vanity is a great market driving force :) The problem with the existing houses is that they're either ugly or are situated in ugly places or both. If I'd be able to choose the design (even from the existing ones) and the location (not an exact, just a type of environment), I'd be pretty content.
 
ermik said:
When you put 50k usd into EU, you give that money to MA, in exchange they give your avatar 500.000 ped on the ped card, in virtual currency , that MA own. Not you.
Click to expand...

Don't forget both the deposit and withdrawal fee.
 
Svarog said:
With 60k deeds, 9 deeds per lot, even if you'll need to have, say, 9 lots to put a house (9x9 deeds, and most likely it will need less), that's still well over 700 houses. Giving them any real use (btw I can't think up any) would seriously shake up the economy :)

And vanity is a great market driving force :) The problem with the existing houses is that they're either ugly or are situated in ugly places or both. If I'd be able to choose the design (even from the existing ones) and the location (not an exact, just a type of environment), I'd be pretty content.
Click to expand...

" In order to to build a structure on claimed land, participants will need to hold a minimum of nine (9) Land Lot Deeds, and claim plots in a 3x3 (or larger) format, suitable for the construction of a structure."

so 6666.666666666667 houses
 
4 PED/CLD/week, 52 weeks/year: 208 PED/CLD/year.

@ 5 % cost of capital:
-> 1 CLD is worth 208/0.05 = 4160 PED.

@ 10 % cost of capital:
-> 1 CLD is worth 208/0.10 = 2080 PED.

@ current price of 1365 PED:
-> Cost of capital is 208/1365 = 15.24 %.

I predict the price of one CLD will be higher in 60 days.

If I had to guess, I'd say the price will settle around 1500 PED.

(This is of course assuming the payout stays the same. Forever. Which is... unlikely.)
 
CLD are IRL investments, how are they not?

Do you just invest in them for fun, for a joke, for a giggle or do you invest in them to see a return?

Maybe I am missing something...



Playing the game is not Real life
Investing in the game is real life.
 
Art Jennifer said:
Investing in the game is real life.
Click to expand...

Indeed it is. One just has to remember to include risk in the valuation.

And any valuation of ingame investments should also be a valuation of Mindark and subsidiaries.
 
Art Jennifer said:
CLD are IRL investments, how are they not?

Do you just invest in them for fun, for a joke, for a giggle or do you invest in them to see a return?

Maybe I am missing something...



Playing the game is not Real life
Investing in the game is real life.
Click to expand...



Edit: If your investing in this game you need to look at several risks.


I personally see risk decreasing as the economies IRL get better and as the player base expands.Therefore I would not be surprised if by this time next year CLD's are over 2000peds, which will be a shame, but hey ho.
 
I simply invest in cld to be able to play for free.
 
ermik said:
When people buy and value an item or resource based on its ROI its quite balanced.

When people buy and value an item or resource solely based on the items projected rise in value rather than the ROI or potential use of the item or resource, its speculation.

Most people are actually speculating, since they assume after 4 years, they will get back what they paid if they sell, when in reality such guarantees does not exist.

When you put 50k usd in a swedish bank, if youre a good dealer you can get a 5% interest, if the bank goes belly up and bankrupt. You still get your money back from the goverment.

When you put 50k usd into EU, you give that money to MA, in exchange they give your avatar 500.000 ped on the ped card, in virtual currency , that MA own. Not you.

So should the ROI on virtual stock ( wich basicly is what CLD´s are ) be valued in comparision to IRL investments that to a much greater extent are secured both by regulations and laws?

Nope.

Remember MA can change ingame mechanics and pull down CLD price to 900-1000ped easy, without loosing face in regards to promised avg ROI.

I just cant see the risk vs reward in depo 140k ped just to get 3-400 ped / week added to my avatars ped card.

Noone knows how much it will cost to build a house, on the 9 deeds land you must claim.

IF the urge for a house were so great, why arent currect houses ingame seeling for more than a few k ?

Im sceptical, becuase that works in the long run, sure from time to time someone more eager to risk passes by and makes it, but most of the times as i progress i keep passing by the people running past me earlier laugning at my conservative aproach.

cheers

ermik
Click to expand...

Actually, the arguments you make DO strengthen the importance of comparing EU investment to RL. You have argued that the investment in RL is giving a lot less interest, but the risk ingame is significantly higher. Pretty basic concept in investment is that a higher risk must be compensated by higher yield. As Prices of CLD rise, returns drops. Theoretically, this means that with a weekly payout of 5 PED per deed, which I round to 250PED per year, and a current interest rate at the bank of 2 percent, the CLD could go to 12.500 PED each.... that is... if there were no risk at all. However, this is not the case.

It is not uncommon to demand a 12% return on stocks. And yet, stocks are a lot less risky than CLD (at the very least.... RL stocks fall under legislation and are (sort of) checked by (sort of) independant investors.

The continued rise in the prices is more and more becoming alike the tulip rage someone already referred to.
 
Svarog said:
A structure doesn't mean a house though. Perhaps all you could put for 9 deeds is a pole with "go away ztupid umans" sign :)
Click to expand...

probably, but 9*9 deeds will cost 110 000 peds or even way more.
 
In my opinion the lowest ROI that i would demand to have on the CLD is around 15 %/year. The CLD is a high risk investment so it should not be compared to bank interest. 20 % ROI would be a more suitable rate. With the average weekly payout from the CLS's not going up, i can't see that the price of the CLD can go up much higher, but maybe start to going down a bit when people start to see that the price don't go up. With a current weekly payout being around 4,50 ped the value should be somewhere around =(4,50x52)/20%=1170 ped or (4,50x52)/15%=1560 ped with a 15 % demand on ROI. So i think the price now is about right for the current level of ROI. It's all about the future, do you think the amount of players will increase on Calypso or not?
 
Svarog said:
A structure doesn't mean a house though. Perhaps all you could put for 9 deeds is a pole with "go away ztupid umans" sign :)
Click to expand...

If it comes with an umbranoid DNA, i'd take that option over a house any day. :yay:

I think people are underestimating the risk on CLDs. If we are willing to assume they aren't risky then the price will continue to rise, subject of course to some seasonal volatility as all items are.
 
Doer said:
If it comes with an umbranoid DNA, i'd take that option over a house any day. :yay:

I think people are underestimating the risk on CLDs. If we are willing to assume they aren't risky then the price will continue to rise, subject of course to some seasonal volatility as all items are.
Click to expand...

Wasn't that a sign near biffoid territory and not umbras? :scratch2:
 
I personally see less risk in these at the current rate.
With a RL house investment, the rent income could leave at any time.
With the stock market, all kinds of things can happen, investors lose a great deal more cumulatively than the CLDs total value daily in the markets. Granted a majority are seeing small gains, but big losses happen too.

Also do people consider the taxes when you do take stocks....they are pretty damn high ATM to cash out, much more than a bank transfer fee.

If I can unload at 1365 within 2 hours....there is definitely a demand that supports the limited supply, and no risk at the current state, considering the price I paid.

And still, someone will be buying, hoarders hoard.

Small example, a Russian RCE attempt has really not a fully functional game, and a very very small playerbase. You would be suprised how much they get in "donations" (deposits) without it even being alive for the last few years of development. People still put in year after year,(hundreds a month) playing and decaying without even an option to withdrawl...only, in hopes of....
This facet of human nature is what protects CLDS, and is the basis of success behind EU.

I would have to see a serious drop in value to even start panicking. We have a roughly 23% ROI, and a 13% increase in value over 2 years, seems very healthy to me.

As time goes on, the availability should decline. These prices don't even reflect the value they may have to people who just want a plot, and a right to vote.

To the CLD housing, I would guess that we would see a lot less than what could be. A few people hold over a 1000 clds some much more that will convert to a much larger structure. On the low end, there is alot of broken up(shared) lots between players, that may never see a full 9 stack.
 
Where did the 9x9 come from? I thought it was just 9 deeds (3x3) and not 81
 
Wollongong said:
Where did the 9x9 come from? I thought it was just 9 deeds (3x3) and not 81
Click to expand...

It's 3x3. I just said that even if it was 9x9, that still would create too much of property to give it any special use beyond simple house. We can't expect to get, say, 7000 (or even 700, in case of 9x9) shopping areas or taxable hunting grounds overnight, right? What would that mean for the current shops/LAs owners?

On the other hand, after reading in the other thread that Deathifier really didn't get any notice from MA about taking the egg from him, we probably can expect everything :)
 
With current trend, price will go up a bit more.

As to landgrab, I bet that CLDs used to stake land will lose their revenue generating ability, therefore there will be not so many people getting homes.
 
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