Entropia Bear Market 🐻

Is the Bear Market here 🐻 🍺


  • Total voters
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  • Poll closed .
Tbh, right now, i cant follow. But that may very well be a function of my own situation right now. Anyway, thx for the reply, ill reread it when i feel better xD

Also, we got pretty far off topic i think. Lets get back to that stock thingy.

Thx and cheers


We haven't strayed far from the topic because I'm giving reasons why I don't think these guns are worth the price. I have no pretensions to buy BP30 or LR20. Rather, I'm collecting tokens for LR20 to later exchange it for BP20... because of its DPP and not for the sake of the large DPS of LR20. But a few months ago, the last one was taken and I don't think that MA will reload the Trader until the new version, that's why I don't have the ambition for new plans before the new version... that is, I'm not writing these things to "reduce prices", because if you you are selling BP30 now for 30k, you won't sell it for 5k, because of my comment.. right.

I mean, I know what I want for my wallet, but most people who buy these guns have no idea why they buy them...

Generally, the seller of such a weapon tries to sell it at a slightly higher price after having used it, and that's why in the last 2 years their prices have jumped so much... that is, the lack of choice is not a criterion for the high price in my opinion, because for this range there are enough other weapons with which you can reach 3.2 DPP.

You can't reach 1mil PED in 3 months with these weapons to have any effect on the Efficiency and Looter of the turnover you have spun. But even if you manage to make a very large turnover at this level, the competition for the loot you will sell is much greater than the scope of the Top Hunters who advise you to make these large turnovers.

If someone says that they sell all their loot at a premium, from mobs to 1k HP, that would be an absolute lie.

The game counts at 3 months, so I think the longest period of time is 3 months. If during this period your actions are not good, you should not count on the game to balance you to 97% after that.

Like the "little daily waves", after a certain period of time the system simply balances you according to your personal activity. These balances are almost weekly and I think their purpose is to try and keep you in the game. This is the reason why, after more turnover, I have 93% at the end of the week and 94% at the end of the quarter. But due to the volume of MU elements, calculations of "profits" remain only on paper, because in practice there is no such market for them.

That's why at the moment I prefer, if we take the example of @Hego Damask with 1mil ped... to spend 100k on smaller losses than 1mil... because in the end the "profit" is not much different.

Even on the contrary.

Right now I'm making better profits with less turnover or Globals than those around me who pour a lot more PED. Simply because my losses are a much smaller percentage, and after selling, which is much easier to do with the smaller amounts, I reach a positive result. While you with the larger turnover and quantities, you will have a larger margin of loss to fill. Even every single token I get from Mayhem is completely free to me if I sell the boxes and convert the shrapnel to cover my loss... ie. i dont buy tokens by Mayhem like most people in the game.

Note that this is not the first thread where these things are written, and you won't find a comment where I wrote that Top Hunter, for example, is doing things wrong. On the contrary, the Top Hunters have the maximum DPP, and therefore Top Hunters pour 1mil per month... That is, the difference when the Shrapnels cover half of your loss is incomparable when performing BC30.


If anyone is making an argument for better skill acquisition, I'll say that in about a month I reached level 50 on Arret, which cost me about $500... money I had planned to spend for levels. During this period, I noticed that the Attributes increased much more than the BLP, which was at a lower level than the Laser. So after I hit Level 50 on my pistol, I spent a few months building up my Attribute Points by zeroing in on my Pyro and Rifle Skills... that's why I currently have more Attribute Points with fewer Codex Missions than players with more time and money spent in the game than me. Like all of this I did it completely free by selling these skills.

The goal I had set for myself was 100 on the attributes, which later became 82 because MA introduced the Codex...

That is, if you got the impression that I am trying to undercut the prices, as some claim, you are mistaken. I'm aware that BC30 won't drop back to 15-18k or LR20 to 7-10k.. at least until the new update... after that it's not clear what it could be!

Simply raising these prices affects all other weapons in the game as well. And since I don't like that, I tend to share information about the game... I think the examples I give are enough for those who are looking for information, to experiment on their own... to understand the differences compared to what is offered now as a "long run report".

I don't know if you don't understand some part of the text keep in mind that at times I rely entirely on google translate, but I don't mind if we discuss it in another thread or even in the game.... many players contacted me after I started to i'm talking about hunting for the last year... most with ALTs but some with their main avatars. Some took a few days to understand what I was telling them, while others took it more quickly... Which I think is due to the habit they have at the moment.

I'm also not an idiot who doesn't get the gist of information in general... and neither does this game. Until last year I was completely restrained by moral inhibitions from influencing with my comments people who have invested and rely to some extent on the income from this game. But since it affects me indirectly by forcing me to reach my goals with larger amounts and there are such people who seem to remain passive... I prefer to share everything I know in opposition to all the misleading information that can currently be enough for the game.

So again I'm not for lower or higher prices, but for a more balanced trading system... less lying traders... less ALT traders... that is, what I'd "like it to be" is less fraudulent/misleading activities... ass licking... hypocrites... But for the good general awareness, which will perhaps be a factor for "good general picture". Maybe then the farts guys will stop dropping bombs at my feet or the retards who come to you to try to take "part of your pool"...

You see, even if you don't have a radical crush on your gameplay, this thread would influence a new BC30 owner to understand its range before buying it....not how much to buy it for...or because it is good in the "long run".

Give me a definition of a "long hunt run" and try to quantify it... that's undefined bullshits man.



PPRPPS..
I just realized that since the beginning of July, I have been inactive because I was on vacation. So if there are any subtle changes, I haven't played enough to know them yet... but overall MA makes very subtle changes and this whole structure doesn't change much.
 
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Right now I'm making better profits with less turnover or Globals than those around me who pour a lot more PED. Simply because my losses are a much smaller percentage, and after selling, which is much easier to do with the smaller amounts, I reach a positive result. While you with the larger turnover and quantities, you will have a larger margin of loss to fill. Even every single token I get from Mayhem is completely free to me if I sell the boxes and convert the shrapnel to cover my loss... ie. i dont buy tokens by Mayhem like most people in the game.

First of all, that is great, if it works / suits you, keep doing that way.
Of course i would be more happy with free tokens too, currently im about break even with counting them as 0.5p cost each, which is still a good price compared to the price of the top weapons, for example 100k token gun would cost 50k instead of their 180k price.
Anybody want to sell BC80 under 180k, i am buying, just tell me and i post my gun, armor and rings for sale right now.
BC80 + ares perfected and im good to go naked.

Would be better if tokens would be free? Yes.
Could i archive it right now starting from Halloween? Yes.
Would it really worth for me to do? NO.
It would mean much slower rate of collecting, without big L amp, without damage enhancers, may even stop when redulite done.
Sometimes it is better to loose some mu for collecting faster, for me this is the case, i prefer collecting enough tokens to my vendor claim during the next 2-3 mayhems instead of the next 10.

That's why at the moment I prefer, if we take the example of @Hego Damask with 1mil ped... to spend 100k on smaller losses than 1mil... because in the end the "profit" is not much different.

I didnt spent 100k on anything. I have purchased and traded gear few times because i always looking for good gear, as cheap as possible to have less and less ped invested in gear, the end goal ofc is to have zero deposited ped invested in a few years, only ingame earned peds, but im not there yet, i need the deposited ped for now to progress much faster, than i could without them.

Difference between 60% and 90% effi is a lot, even on my not too high currently 1.2 million cycle, about 2%, 25k ped, let say some of them were made with 80% effi, so reality would be maybe 15-20k ped difference, but still, that is a lot, and 1.2 million ped cycle is not much.
My tracker started at october, i will have around 1,5 million cycle at end of september, not planning to do high turnover till halloween mayhem.
Next year re-started from october will reach the same 1.2 million cycle at end of january and total will be more like 2.5 - 3 million ped, that is 50-60k difference in tt again with the 2% difference.
During this and that next year, the gun will almost save me its own price.
 
First of all, that is great, if it works / suits you, keep doing that way.
Of course i would be more happy with free tokens too, currently im about break even with counting them as 0.5p cost each, which is still a good price compared to the price of the top weapons, for example 100k token gun would cost 50k instead of their 180k price.
Anybody want to sell BC80 under 180k, i am buying, just tell me and i post my gun, armor and rings for sale right now.
BC80 + ares perfected and im good to go naked.

Would be better if tokens would be free? Yes.
Could i archive it right now starting from Halloween? Yes.
Would it really worth for me to do? NO.
It would mean much slower rate of collecting, without big L amp, without damage enhancers, may even stop when redulite done.
Sometimes it is better to loose some mu for collecting faster, for me this is the case, i prefer collecting enough tokens to my vendor claim during the next 2-3 mayhems instead of the next 10.



I didnt spent 100k on anything. I have purchased and traded gear few times because i always looking for good gear, as cheap as possible to have less and less ped invested in gear, the end goal ofc is to have zero deposited ped invested in a few years, only ingame earned peds, but im not there yet, i need the deposited ped for now to progress much faster, than i could without them.

Difference between 60% and 90% effi is a lot, even on my not too high currently 1.2 million cycle, about 2%, 25k ped, let say some of them were made with 80% effi, so reality would be maybe 15-20k ped difference, but still, that is a lot, and 1.2 million ped cycle is not much.
My tracker started at october, i will have around 1,5 million cycle at end of september, not planning to do high turnover till halloween mayhem.
Next year re-started from october will reach the same 1.2 million cycle at end of january and total will be more like 2.5 - 3 million ped, that is 50-60k difference in tt again with the 2% difference.
During this and that next year, the gun will almost save me its own price.

Man, that's the difference between our comments. You are talking about how much more it will save you, not what your profit will be or how much you will lose for that 1.2kkk ped. I understand your calculations well because I have probably made more games than most here have ever played, but to me an investment means a projected profit range, not reduced by a 1% loss.
 
to me an investment means a projected profit range, not reduced by a 1% loss.
If you're unable to figure the projected profit range, it doesn't mean it's not projectable, it doesn't mean others cannot. Reduced % loss is part of the system. The profit part is now on the user. When the user is smart and experienced enough to profit, reducing % losses, cutting on expenses, makes even more sense. It's the natural thing to do when someone scales up the game at the right time.

It was a lot easier before loot 2.0, 3.15 DPP = break even point. But it wasn't obvious unless you either did extensive tests, or, listen to experienced hunters. And that one was a lot easier to project a profit range at the end of every month.
 
back on topic again, because it becoming a loot theory thread.

Here, it's not a bear market, right?


Hard to sell stuff nowadays. But I guess that has nothing to do with being a bear market or not, right?
 
back on topic again, because it becoming a loot theory thread.

Here, it's not a bear market, right?


Hard to sell stuff nowadays. But I guess that has nothing to do with being a bear market or not, right?

Hey look I can cherry pick threads too :cool:
 
back on topic again, because it becoming a loot theory thread.

Here, it's not a bear market, right?


Hard to sell stuff nowadays. But I guess that has nothing to do with being a bear market or not, right?
Counterpoint. There shooting themselves in the foot being more impatient than a baby who needs some milk.

That is not indicative of the market, but more so indicative of someone who has zero control lmao
 
Counterpoint. There shooting themselves in the foot being more impatient than a baby who needs some milk.

That is not indicative of the market, but more so indicative of someone who has zero control lmao
Hmmmm...personally I would not call Naomi that.

I'd give him more respect than that ;)
 
Hmmmm...personally I would not call Naomi that.

I'd give him more respect than that ;)
Not meant as an insult. Just that it's very common practice for someone who "needs money" or "needs ped"
 
Not meant as an insult. Just that it's very common practice for someone who "needs money" or "needs ped"
Or just wants to sell quickly before the bear comes and eats it all 🐻
 
Or just wants to sell quickly before the bear comes and eats it all 🐻
Maybe, or maybe not. Naomi (and he knows it) is not well known for his patience when buying or selling and he just got a nice new toy, new weapon, probably twice as expensive.
Could be what you say or could be that this time of the year is not know to be a time where items change hands fast, or when demand is high...
 
Maybe, or maybe not. Naomi (and he knows it) is not well known for his patience when buying or selling and he just got a nice new toy, new weapon, probably twice as expensive.
Could be what you say or could be that this time of the year is not know to be a time where items change hands fast, or when demand is high...

So what you're saying is naomi is also a person of good culture? xD


I wish i was not impatient, it is by far the hardest skill to master in EU, and it is very important to master that skill in EU. At least for a lot of people.
 
Maybe, or maybe not. Naomi (and he knows it) is not well known for his patience when buying or selling and he just got a nice new toy, new weapon, probably twice as expensive.
Could be what you say or could be that this time of the year is not know to be a time where items change hands fast, or when demand is high...
That was a better way of wording it for sure. Just wants some peds to play with their new toy
 
Counterpoint. There shooting themselves in the foot being more impatient than a baby who needs some milk.

That is not indicative of the market, but more so indicative of someone who has zero control lmao

Hmmmm...personally I would not call Naomi that.

I'd give him more respect than that ;)
Think it’s more the fact that gun isn’t worth near what he wanted for it…

I can sell adjusted ep41 for 500k and reduce it by 5k every hour…

doesn’t mean the sky is falling.

what I’ve notice is people sell everything they have to buy a high spec 2.0 weapon and then re invest in the gear they sold after they have the new weapon…

I reckon some of these sale threads are just people raising capital for bigger gear

However - remember real life is pretty touch at the moment inflation, war energy prices. Wages not keeping up pace, so with this all going on investments falling people will be selling to get cash and typically they always come back.
 
However - remember real life is pretty touch at the moment inflation, war energy prices. Wages not keeping up pace, so with this all going on investments falling people will be selling to get cash and typically they always come back.

And this is EXACTLY the point we're trying to make!

Nobody said sky is falling.
Nobody said Entropia will go under.
Just that entropia entered the bear market, just like in 2008 when the prices were slashed in half.

Not a bad thing to deflate some bloated prices.
 
And this is EXACTLY the point we're trying to make!

Nobody said sky is falling.
Nobody said Entropia will go under.
Just that entropia entered the bear market, just like in 2008 when the prices were slashed in half.

Not a bad thing to deflate some bloated prices.
Ahhh

Agree 100% this is impossible to argue.

Unavoidable for EU not to feel outside pressures and you will find traders and wealthy players taking advantage of falling prices.
 
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It dont matter what efficiency you got if you can find a high MU mob. I see players lose peed all day long in places like Moloch cave with high elf weapons.
others I see falling back even more on chasing eomons and just hoping to get a repayment HoF soon, even with their overpriced weapons
 
There's 3 main ways to properly assess the health of the Entropia economy in my view. Surely macroeconomic circumstances and influences matter (i.e US Federal Reserve decisions, geopolitical situations, global exchange/financial status), but a true pulse of the in-game economy should be assumed by these methods:

1) Similar to the CPI (consumer price index), we can look at a basket of commodities and the sales volumes. I chose EP, Oil, Metal Res., and Lyst. Even though the decade chart is skewed at the most recent recordings, due to the month end metrics not being finalized, we can see the peak demand was around Easter Mayhem. However, we are still well above the era of depreciated demand seen in 2012-2016.
index.php


2) Auction listings - As of today, there's 715 pages on calypso, and about another 100 on the other planets, for a total of 800-850. At the peaks, there was 1000-1250.

3) Lastly, CLD ROI. From the two links below, you can see in 2020 we averaged around 3.5-4.0 ped a week on CLD ROI, and currently as of this week we are at 3.66 ped weekly ROI. There were a few times 2021-2022 we hit between 4-4.5, but it's quite stable. During the era of depreciated demand, the ROI was 3.0-3.2 weekly (2012-2016). And just like IRL bond markets, the price of CLDs compared to returns are stable. 3000-3100 ped per CLD, 3.5-4.0 weekly ROI return.


From these metrics, I don't see a very significant contraction yet, but there is a notable decline from the Easter Mayhem peak. Whether this is correlated to the global economy, or due to a lack of Mayhem events, is yet to be seen. I think with fall/winter Mayhem, and the UE5 implementation hopefully in a year, EU should remain quite stable.

I do want to mention something about returns and all the efficiency to looter level chatter. We all know the key to profit in this game is markup, and whether we like it or not, it does not matter how much we understand about TT return because we cannot control that. The benefit of high efficiency weapons is you will lose less ped as you skill, especially due to Codex. It's important to note Smilgs lost ped 19 of the first 24 months he started his log. Most people would quit, most do. The difference is, at the higher end of the bell curve, just like any start-up business, you become profitable because you are able to do what the others cannot. With higher skills/HP and high DPS/Eff. weapons, you are able to hunt mobs and loot items with high markup that 90%+ of EU players cannot (i.e Titan pieces from Moloch, Modified/Perfected scales @ Gorgon, etc.).


And most importantly, be kind and have fun y'all :smoke:
 
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i choose pyrite + output amplifiers (enhancers)
then.... belkar, oil and robot grips (aramtrix series 40-45 craft)

1 ped is 1/10 of a dollar, a pegged currency, a perfect peg with a centralized banking that mint ped (MA)

prices rise when buyers are more aggressive and sellers demand a premium (look at a simple Amp improved 105)
prices fall when sellers are more aggressive and buyers demand a premium

UL items. ..... all the price is based on a discount from TOP (Best in Slot) of each lesser-then-perfect item....
we all know that prices for a Token are 0.5 to 1.5 ped... manufacturer will try to stretch to 1.5 and buyer to 0.5... old game of negotiations....

so.... it is a hard choiche to buy a 55% Eff item for the price of a 80% and time to sell is a bit longer.
then someone will say .... i get it and manufacture my tokens at 50 pec each and svae 1 ped each one, i better get the gun instead of pay 1.5p per token,..... and buy

as in all market the strange fact is that people ask why it comes downa nd not why it rose so much before?"
 
There's 3 main ways to properly assess the health of the Entropia economy in my view. Surely macroeconomic circumstances and influences matter (i.e US Federal Reserve decisions, geopolitical situations, global exchange/financial status), but a true pulse of the in-game economy should be assumed by these methods:

1) Similar to the CPI (consumer price index), we can look at a basket of commodities and the sales volumes. I chose EP, Oil, Metal Res., and Lyst. Even though the decade chart is skewed at the most recent recordings, due to the month end metrics not being finalized, we can see the peak demand was around Easter Mayhem. However, we are still well above the era of depreciated demand seen in 2012-2016.
index.php


2) Auction listings - As of today, there's 715 pages on calypso, and about another 100 on the other planets, for a total of 800-850. At the peaks, there was 1000-1250.

3) Lastly, CLD ROI. From the two links below, you can see in 2020 we averaged around 3.5-4.0 ped a week on CLD ROI, and currently as of this week we are at 3.66 ped weekly ROI. There were a few times 2021-2022 we hit between 4-4.5, but it's quite stable. During the era of depreciated demand, the ROI was 3.0-3.2 weekly (2012-2016). And just like IRL bond markets, the price of CLDs compared to returns are stable. 3000-3100 ped per CLD, 3.5-4.0 weekly ROI return.


From these metrics, I don't see a very significant contraction yet, but there is a notable decline from the Easter Mayhem peak. Whether this is correlated to the global economy, or due to a lack of Mayhem events, is yet to be seen. I think with fall/winter Mayhem, and the UE5 implementation hopefully in a year, EU should remain quite stable.

I do want to mention something about returns and all the efficiency to looter level chatter. We all know the key to profit in this game is markup, and whether we like it or not, it does not matter how much we understand about TT return because we cannot control that. The benefit of high efficiency weapons is you will lose less ped as you skill, especially due to Codex. It's important to note Smilgs lost ped 19 of the first 24 months he started his log. Most people would quit, most do. The difference is, at the higher end of the bell curve, just like any start-up business, you become profitable because you are able to do what the others cannot. With higher skills/HP and high DPS/Eff. weapons, you are able to hunt mobs and loot items with high markup that 90%+ of EU players cannot (i.e Titan pieces from Moloch, Modified/Perfected scales @ Gorgon, etc.).


And most importantly, be kind and have fun y'all :smoke:

Smelly-boxes.jpg


You know. When a noob keeps and sells his boxes all year at 3ped, but suddenly decides to sell 10k at 1ped before the annual event... that is far from the understanding of a market economy dictated by supply and demand... managed by players. Perhaps the word managed in this case has some similarity.
 
Is the bottom in sight or is Entropia a bit beyond the curve?
Seen man "sell for btc recently" 🤣
 
I think we can conclude that the bear is definitely lose.
Is the bottom in sight or is Entropia a bit beyond the curve?
Seen man "sell for btc recently" 🤣
Nope, no bottom in sight yet.
The bear is lose!

Just 672 pages on auction, most of which don't sell at all.
Deeds are dropping fast.
Deed return is dropping as well.

And to be honest, I think this is just the beginning.
There is still so much air in the current over inflated prices.
(To bad though, since I would have loved to sell some shit, but I'm afraid I will have to wait another 5 years or so for the next opportunity)
 
I think we can conclude that the bear is definitely lose.

Nope, no bottom in sight yet.
The bear is lose!

Just 672 pages on auction, most of which don't sell at all.
Deeds are dropping fast.
Deed return is dropping as well.

And to be honest, I think this is just the beginning.
There is still so much air in the current over inflated prices.
(To bad though, since I would have loved to sell some shit, but I'm afraid I will have to wait another 5 years or so for the next opportunity)
and also 3+ pages with "bump" on pcf....
 
If you're unable to figure the projected profit range, it doesn't mean it's not projectable, it doesn't mean others cannot. Reduced % loss is part of the system. The profit part is now on the user. When the user is smart and experienced enough to profit, reducing % losses, cutting on expenses, makes even more sense. It's the natural thing to do when someone scales up the game at the right time.

It was a lot easier before loot 2.0, 3.15 DPP = break even point. But it wasn't obvious unless you either did extensive tests, or, listen to experienced hunters. And that one was a lot easier to project a profit range at the end of every month.
Thank you for this post it has certainly given me some food for thought.

[Edited - I managed to work out the new break-even point for Loot 2.1.]
 
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Looking for cheap deals on gear pm me.

Esp interested in bc30s

Why would items go down in value because of inflation? Gas didn't go down. Vehicles didn't go down. Items irl went up as inflation rose, so why would items go down on Entropia simply because inflation.

How can you live like that? Are you constantly watching all the financial news and always sell everything you own at peaks? Your car, your tools... :D


When you say "you should have sold..." you're making an asumption that is false. You are assuming we are all the same and want the same thing....

There are all sorts of types of players in this game. There are people that purchase items to use but are mostly interested in their value and will try to sell before a crash... but like IRL, they are very few. Most would want to work on their avatar, account, goals for the long run. while peaks like that hurts today's balance, working on long run pays off more and it's more rewarding to focus on building something than stressing over the charts every hour, imo.
It's fine to live for the peak, that gives you a rush and keeps you constantly alert I guess.... but it's also fine to try and perform for the long run. I think most people actually prefer the long term results...

R4l7PV5.png

And most valuable assets are usually in the hands of these people, while people chasing peaks end up not being able to touch much valuable stuff because of fear of loosing value, "because 2008" or other experiences.

Probably markets will crash further this year but they will be back up again, even higher, that cannot be avoided. As for our little corner of the world, EU, on top of TWEN and UE5 upcoming booms, we just got news there will be a 3rd boom, NFT thingy which might be of more impact than TWEN and UE5 altogether, from the advertising of the sale alone, not to mention if someone capable gets their hands on one of those full of potential contracts and starts doing some really good recruitment...

This explains much
 
How is the sells going?
 
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