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Question: Punishing the Pattern Recognition of Players

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R4tt3xx

I want to believe
Joined
Apr 10, 2005
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South Africa
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Alexis Sky Greenstar
I think that this game employs a system that punishes pattern recognition..

Read my thought process below this..

The game switches from linear to exponential progression when the player makes too much peds.. And then scales again when the player "cracks" that sequence or scales down when the player is not obtaining the needed rewards..

The game literally builds an equation using the actions of the players. x^(m)+x^(m-1)+c eg x coord^2+y coord^1+height = 0
The game builds a trend line to match the players actions..


Below is the old post... Sorry for the rambling..

I perform an action that the game has not seen before and it gives me a reward fo it. (C)
I perform the same action and the game starts to recognise the pattern.. (X)+(C)
Third time, the pattern is locked and game knows what the pattern is and scales the pattern up.. (2X) (C)
Now the player gets shafted ... Fourth time... (X^2)+(X)+(C)

I think its using simple math mainly the quadratic equation to break patterns... Even if you do random stuff it, will try and find a pattern that you as the player are not aware of, and break it..

I saw the reference to the Sack's spiral right from the beginning of the game, even the global animation is a variation of the Sacks spiral math. There is also a reference to another profession in mining (click click). The game wants players to find these patterns, in order to wait for them to be abused and then scale the system up an exponent...

If you pickup that pattern change, you can abuse it for a while, and the game scales the pattern up again...

I am sorry If I am not explaining this properly.

The game has a system in-place that breaks either intentional or unintentional patterns.

Let me plot it quick

Move 0 starts at 0,0 (0,0)
Move 1 50 (50,0)
Next move can be 100, or 2x+0 =110 (110,0)

The game can now either reward that sequence or expand the sequence by adding an exponent x^2+x+0 50^2+50+0 or (2550,0), both sequences are valid, the one carries on using the current base, the other adds an exponent...

Think of it as a freeway entrance or difficulty scaling, or even a level up in an MMO. The game gets harder.. OH It's dynamic difficulty scaling .....

You have made too much ped today, how about we challenge you, you can earn more ped, but when you loose, we will scale back... so that you will always be within x loot...
 
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Could you elaborate further as to what made you come to this conclusion? You have a hypothesis but haven't really provided any evidence for your claim.
 
Interesting theory, that I think many felt in a sublime way
 
Droob said:
Could you elaborate further as to what made you come to this conclusion? You have a hypothesis but haven't really provided any evidence for your claim.
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The game uses mechanics that are just too easy to figure out and each time, I have attempted to "scale up" ie switch from a md 1 to a 105, it always ends in misery,

Have you had those long stints in game of less than stellar loot and then it suddenly comes right, you make a few ped, and then loose it again. I think this can explain that without resorting to random BS.
 
Have you considered that perhaps the patterns you think you are finding aren't really patterns? Or that they are not THE patterns. Perhaps the "pattern switch" is part of the pattern and you just haven't found the right pattern? Perhaps there are no patterns, but random data that occasionally (perhaps even commonly) distributes in a fashion that looks like a pattern?


R4tt3xx said:
Have you had those long stints in game of less than stellar loot and then it suddenly comes right, you make a few ped, and then loose it again. I think this can explain that without resorting to random BS.
Click to expand...
Weighted Randomness can explain that too. Just saying!
 
strakkan said:
Correct. Believed patterns are probably just economy adjusting itself. Theres a limited amount of peds in the system. I remember a time when peds seemed unlimited and reason I would guess was that inflow of peds in the game was enormous. Just my guess.
Click to expand...
Perhaps...

I am working on something that you wont find on the internet as every clue in the game is a red herring..
Sacks Spiral - red herring
Quadratic Equation - red herring
Photography - red herring (ye many people did not know about that one ...) Here's a real F105 -
E^( n )(theta)(rho)(pi)(alpha) - red herring.
Fibonacci sequencing in both levels and mining claim sizes ... Dont know about that one yet..
 
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I think as others said in here I doubt it is that complex tbh it's ma. What I will say is their possibility is some manual element involved which adjusts thresholds on payouts like more Uber hofs but generally more sucky in general loot wise or smaller Ubers but more lower level hofs.

Their is a weird time element involved too which is random and most likely the main culprit for why you can ever guess system. It's like looking at the internal workings of a clock from the outside your never guess it.
 
slick27 said:
I think as others said in here I doubt it is that complex tbh it's ma. What I will say is their possibility is some manual element involved which adjusts thresholds on payouts like more Uber hofs but generally more sucky in general loot wise or smaller Ubers but more lower level hofs.

Their is a weird time element involved too which is random and most likely the main culprit for why you can ever guess system. It's like looking at the internal workings of a clock from the outside your never guess it.
Click to expand...
Don't even suggest opening up the clock.... BAD IDEA !!!!
 
slick27 said:
I think as others said in here I doubt it is that complex tbh it's ma. What I will say is their possibility is some manual element involved which adjusts thresholds on payouts like more Uber hofs but generally more sucky in general loot wise or smaller Ubers but more lower level hofs.

Their is a weird time element involved too which is random and most likely the main culprit for why you can ever guess system. It's like looking at the internal workings of a clock from the outside your never guess it.
Click to expand...
Don;t even suggest opening up the clock.... BAD IDEA !!!!
slick27 said:
I think as others said in here I doubt it is that complex tbh it's ma. What I will say is their possibility is some manual element involved which adjusts thresholds on payouts like more Uber hofs but generally more sucky in general loot wise or smaller Ubers but more lower level hofs.

Their is a weird time element involved too which is random and most likely the main culprit for why you can ever guess system. It's like looking at the internal workings of a clock from the outside your never guess it.
Click to expand...
Or a few hundred squirming ants behaving randomly and then complaining how random things look...
MA could just use the players themselves as agents in the system. Oh wait, Strak just said that ..
 
strakkan said:
Correct. Believed patterns are probably just economy adjusting itself. Theres a limited amount of peds in the system. I remember a time when peds seemed unlimited and reason I would guess was that inflow of peds in the game was enormous. Just my guess.
Click to expand...
Ah yes, spend 30 ped on a mining run, come back with 90 tt. I remember that ..
 
MrFatBoy said:
slot machine
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It could have slot machine like mechanics. But each time you miss, you are guaranteed to hit something larger in the future. Think of it like a debt that the game owes you that will eventually come due when you press the right buttons and of course the buttons change depending on what is owed.
 
R4tt3xx said:
. But each time you miss, you are guaranteed to hit something larger in the future. Think of it like a debt that the game owes you that will eventually come due when you press the right buttons and of course the buttons change depending on what is owed.
Click to expand...
Bertha Bot said:
Personal Lootpools - Many of the theories which suggest - inaccurately - that efficiency is unimportant will often employ the concept of a “personal lootpool”, claiming that the “system” will eventually provide a sort of compensation to avatars who have been operating in an inefficient manner. Such theories are very much misguided. There is no such thing as a “personal lootpool” for individual avatars, and there is no system in place which tracks each avatar’s returns over time, or which provides compensation to individual avatars.
Click to expand...
 
Just point out that statement was like how long ago during the time loot 1.0 when you could pull TT with high efficiency weapons. I do agree their isn't a personal loot pool your still competing against players but it doesn't mean it doesn't keep track input and output of your avatar
 
R4tt3xx said:
But each time you miss, you are guaranteed to hit something larger in the future.
Click to expand...
The only thing you are guaranteed is that any outcome within the boundaries of the system will eventually occur, if you push the button often enough. High will follow low and low will follow high, yes, you just never know when exactly. And like with indivual events, you are guaranteed that any pattern you may detect in a limited sample might occur again, but you cannot predict when, which renders all your efforts at pattern detection pointless. Assumptions that the system could be rigged in some way are within human nature, but the chance of that being the case is balanced by the chance of it being found out in an audit, and a developer being tempted this way has to make a risk assessment, as failure would be fatal. See, there is a probabilistic nature in everything.
 
slick27 said:
Just point out that statement was like how long ago during the time loot 1.0 when you could pull TT with high efficiency weapons. I do agree their isn't a personal loot pool your still competing against players but it doesn't mean it doesn't keep track input and output of your avatar
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There is a similar statement post 2.0 it is just harder to track down.

There has never been, and never will be a "compensation system" in Entropia, simply because there is absolutely no point in such a system when weighted randomness achieves the same with less resources.
 
OK. let me tell you all what I think it is... The real world equivalent of this technology is known as a MO Disc.

Sorry for being so vague, I just thought of a real world tech that matches what I know and this is it..

Obtaining a miss in this game is not a bad thing, it "writes" that change around it turning a zero into a 1. Split second timing is also required as the disc is spinning as the laser head (avatar) moves across its surface interacting with different areas of it's surface changing it.
 
San said:
The only thing you are guaranteed is that any outcome within the boundaries of the system will eventually occur, if you push the button often enough. High will follow low and low will follow high, yes, you just never know when exactly. And like with indivual events, you are guaranteed that any pattern you may detect in a limited sample might occur again, but you cannot predict when, which renders all your efforts at pattern detection pointless. Assumptions that the system could be rigged in some way are within human nature, but the chance of that being the case is balanced by the chance of it being found out in an audit, and a developer being tempted this way has to make a risk assessment, as failure would be fatal. See, there is a probabilistic nature in everything.
Click to expand...

If I am right, it's rigged in no one's favour, it's a system that knows it's own state at any one time based on the actions of an individual or even multiple participants. It's like counting in binary and also the analogy of a slot machine..

Heres the display of my slot ..

0010101

I add a 1 to it and it becomes
0010110
add another
0010111
0011000
0011001
0011010
0011011
0011100

withdrawing from the system does the same thing. It can have a memory etched into the ground itself.

as soon as it rolls over and cant hold the number, jackpot...
 
index.php
 
Our minds are designed to figure a pattern....

Cyrene training Grounds, mang chang sit in the stable, i position myself and kill same animal over and over....
it is just "tinfoil hat mode"
the "quasi random number generator" returns 92/98%
the only undiscovered (? :) ) percentages are interaction of looter and eff
and "mean reversion" formula.
game is left skewed, leptocurtic and is also etheroskedastic in the distribution,
can approximate it with a Student T ? with a certain degree of confidence yes
can use a VAR model? DEFINITELY YES
 
Msturlese said:
Our minds are designed to figure a pattern....

Cyrene training Grounds, mang chang sit in the stable, i position myself and kill same animal over and over....
it is just "tinfoil hat mode"
the "quasi random number generator" returns 92/98%
the only undiscovered (? :) ) percentages are interaction of looter and eff
and "mean reversion" formula.
game is left skewed, leptocurtic and is also etheroskedastic in the distribution,
can approximate it with a Student T ? with a certain degree of confidence yes
can use a VAR model? DEFINITELY YES
Click to expand...
I hate maths, going to have to look this up...

I am open to the possibility, but to just openly assert something based on no data, do you have the data, can you are you willing to demonstrate what you have learnt ??
 
R4tt3xx said:
If I am right, it's rigged in no one's favour, it's a system that knows it's own state at any one time based on the actions of an individual or even multiple participants. It's like counting in binary and also the analogy of a slot machine..
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If your understanding can reach to that conclusion, why do you keep insisting on the notion that any individual outcome is input for calculating the next one, or that this would occur in patterns? Only its probability is. Of course, the probablilities in this system are "rigged" to yield its operating cost. Your actual game of win or loss takes place on the market, with a rare chance of luck.
 
R4tt3xx said:
I hate maths, going to have to look this up...

I am open to the possibility, but to just openly assert something based on no data, do you have the data, can you are you willing to demonstrate what you have learnt ??
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I regret what I have just said and retract it. It will stay here as I am willing to admit mistakes. You have data.. My appoligies..
 
www.investopedia.com

Heteroscedasticity Definition: Simple Meaning and Types Explained

In statistics, heteroskedasticity happens when the standard deviations of a variable, monitored over a specific amount of time, are nonconstant.
www.investopedia.com www.investopedia.com

Ok this is cool.... Yes I agree, I do see this in mining a lot. You drop a probe and the claim pops up x distance @ x angle away, but you can predict where it is going by plotting a curve, not a straight line, a curve from the previous hit to it. There is even a way to completely remove this variance, but that is my little secret. Lets just say that you do not have to accept the values the game gives you.

Another issue is that you are looking at the system over the course of time, I bet you that if you looked at it all at the same second through multiple avatars, it would make more sense.
 
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