PopFuzz's Mining Theorys

[PopFuzz]

After ready and following Legions non Blog for a week or two now I have decided his theorys are more hog wash then I did before.

So here is some theorys of my own I would love people to test out and prove right or wrong.


Theory 1
Hit rate on planet averages around 25% when you do not overlap finds.
This has been tested and proven before, but you can test for yourself

Test:
Keep track of 1000 mining drops and keep track of your hit rate over the run.

Theory 2
Overlapping and double bombing reduces hit rate.
This is what I tested and came to the conclusion long time ago so I Do not double bomb.

Test:
Keep Track of 1000 mining drops double bombing all claims and keep track of the hit rate.

Theory 3.
Double bombing leads to bigger Hofs as system restores lost tt
This one is hard to prove, but my theory is that those who double bomb alot may see worse tt returns on avg runs, but more Hofs overtime as system restores their lost TT. Id love discussions on this one

Theory 4.
Mining amps reduce rare hit rate.
Ive come to the conclusion the bigger the amp the less rares I find.

Theory 5.
System restores and distributes TT from all professions.
My theory is that if you loose alot of TT in one run (sub 80% return) you have an increased chance of seeing that TT returned in another profession that day. Also true in reverse, seeing alot of TT profit on one run can make another profession loose alot of TT that day as system avgs your tt out.

Theory 6
Its impossible to TT profit overtime. Although a handful of people have stated that its possible to TT profit, im still on the fence. I think ovetime its impossible.

Theory 7
Doing both ore and enmaters at the same time leads to more consistent returns.

I believe I get more consisten returns when I do both, I tend to find one is hotter then the other on every run and tends to lead to closer to even TT every run. I also found that when I just did 1 the TT return swings were way bigger.

Theory 8
Loot frequency theory
when minining 1/100 drops is minis 1/400 is peak loots. Peak loots are one larger loot that usually restores your TT return to be near 80-100%.
This sometimes breaks into several larger loots clumped together but still giving you that restored tt return.

Using this theory I believe its best to drop 400 probes and 400 bombs in a run. This most of the time will be enough drops to get you to a more consistent high tt return.

Also just dropping 100 bombs is same as killing 25 mobs, its just not enough to properly cycle through your loot.

Theory 9
Wasting your time with TT excuvators does not save you peds. Mining is a slow tedious process and the difference between a fast L excuvator and the TT over a 800 drop run is less then 8 peds but the time saved lets you mine way more per day so your sacrificing potential profits by trying to save pecs.

Theory 10
Mining is tedious boring theory.
Face it mining kinda sucks, save mining for when you hit a bad loot cycle to pull you through it. If your hunting and loots fantastic, keep hunting. Loot tends to stay hot in one profession for you over a period of time. I am also finding that one of the three professions seems to be hotter then the others at any given time. So if hunting or crafting is hot keep it up if it goes bad mine your losses away (or at least reduce what your loosing each day)

Theory 11
PopFuzz is nuts theory
Just remember im an insane wacko at times I play too much and spend too much time thinking of theories. Ignore me and just play and have fun

 

[Wed]

Subscribing, this has potential for some intresting discussions

 

[Hijacker27]

Funny how I have to agree with all of your theories.

I do double bomb though, at least in PVP4.

 

[PopFuzz]

Yah out of habit I still double bomb amples and bigger sometimes but really don't think it helps, id prob do just as well or better running 110 meters and bombing then double bombing

Funny how I have to agree with all of your theories.

I do double bomb though, at least in PVP4.

 

[Cea]

Agree fully to #1 and #2 then it gets fuzzy.

Can't say I agree to the lost TT recovery theory. Say, if I buy 5k bombs and drop them all in same place (extreme example), that will add to my lost TT pool then? Meaning I would be more likely to get bigger loot soonish? So, somehow the system would have a failsafe compensating for stupidity? Hardly likely. Exaggerating heavily here, but I don't believe in this re: double bombing.

 

[sitram]

Agree fully to #1 and #2 then it gets fuzzy.

Can't say I agree to the lost TT recovery theory. Say, if I buy 5k bombs and drop them all in same place (extreme example), that will add to my lost TT pool then? Meaning I would be more likely to get bigger loot soonish? So, somehow the system would have a failsafe compensating for stupidity? Hardly likely. Exaggerating heavily here, but I don't believe in this re: double bombing.

Just because you can do something in EU, it doesn't mean you should do it. That's my philosophy and it worked great so far.

I've seen plenty of examples where MA doesn't pay for someone stupidity. Same goes if you try to push the system into giving you a big payout(eg. OA101 crafters that make a huge round in hope of getting an ATH)

From what I understood from Marco's posts regarding how loot works in EU, he stated that an avatar will get the best returns if he does the right stuff for his skills. Finding the right mobs, right finder/amp or right BP's to craft it's not an easy task and it takes some time but I guess it's the "fun" part in EU. Even if you do find them it doesn't mean you'll get 90% tt return all the time, but in the long run. At least this is what I have learned so far from my experience in EU.

Sitram

 

[PopFuzz]

Well 5000 drops in one spot is same as my double bombing theory you won't get loot doing that as you drop the 5000 but possibly 5000 peds dumped in one spot may lead to a tower a few days or weeks later. Would love to see someone test that actually.

As for TT lost recovery that is TT lost above the normal expected loss doing normal activities. For example today I did a emk2600 fap run had 50% TT return well below expected and lost 400 ped TT, then as I mined I had 5 globals in 800 drops (4 unamped enmater globals ) that was def not an ordinary mining run. So the mining run was a nice 200 TT ped profit and when you averaged the crafting run and mining I had 89% tt on the day or expected TT return.

My theory was that the crafting tt Loss triggered a nicer the normal mining run as the system averaged my tt return to normal.

Agree fully to #1 and #2 then it gets fuzzy.

Can't say I agree to the lost TT recovery theory. Say, if I buy 5k bombs and drop them all in same place (extreme example), that will add to my lost TT pool then? Meaning I would be more likely to get bigger loot soonish? So, somehow the system would have a failsafe compensating for stupidity? Hardly likely. Exaggerating heavily here, but I don't believe in this re: double bombing.

 

[Noodles]

Agree fully to #1 and #2 then it gets fuzzy.

But does it get Poppy Fuzzy?

 

[Matho]

Finnaly something interesting after "Look its ..." blah blah

Will keep an eye on this

subscribing

 

[DoubleWolf]

Theory 9
Wasting your time with TT excuvators does not save you peds. Mining is a slow tedious process and the difference between a fast L excuvator and the TT over a 800 drop run is less then 8 peds but the time saved lets you mine way more per day so your sacrificing potential profits by trying to save pecs.

I tend to believe this one. But not only time saved, but the actual excavators really are more efficient. I recently switched from an MD101 to an MD102 just to see what would happen. I'd say my average pull of oil on a 101 was around 35 pec. With the 102 the average pull is closer to 40-45. I was never able to get a pull of 50 with the 101 but they are much more common with the 102. So if I can get 5-10 more pec per pull by increasing my costs by only .9 pec, I will gladly do that.

The only catch would be is that if all it does is pull it up faster in larger chunks, but it also seems to me that the number of pulls per find has remained about the same. The smaller finds like IIIs of things such as Typo only ever get one pull to get them out. But I find I am able to get more on that one pull with the 102 than I was with the 101.

 

[Cail]

I don't really believe in that they store the info on "lost TT" and give it out later, for starters, if that would be the case, i'm well over due several ATH's already, secondly, that wouldn't be so dynamic in the end now would it?

 

[Hijacker27]

I tend to believe this one. But not only time saved, but the actual excavators really are more efficient. I recently switched from an MD101 to an MD102 just to see what would happen. I'd say my average pull of oil on a 101 was around 35 pec. With the 102 the average pull is closer to 40-45. I was never able to get a pull of 50 with the 101 but they are much more common with the 102. So if I can get 5-10 more pec per pull by increasing my costs by only .9 pec, I will gladly do that.

The only catch would be is that if all it does is pull it up faster in larger chunks, but it also seems to me that the number of pulls per find has remained about the same. The smaller finds like IIIs of things such as Typo only ever get one pull to get them out. But I find I am able to get more on that one pull with the 102 than I was with the 101.

You won't get more of a resource.. Else everybody would be using om-105 and md-105s

 

[DoubleWolf]

You won't get more of a resource.. Else everybody would be using om-105 and md-105s

Then how do you explain the fact that on III typo finds, I get about 8-10 with the 101 and I get about 10-12 with the 102? Just a better find? And I consistently get those better finds ever since I switched extractors?

I gotta think there's more to the efficiency rating on the extractors than just calculating eff/pec as entropedia does. Has anyone ever done any tests on this?

 

[4ealien]

Nice work Fuzzy, I agree (and using) with most of this theories.

And other I will try !

 

[Superhal]

I have found this too: two of the theories predict opposite results. The tt balancing theory and the double bombing/overlapping theory. I agree with both, but they don't agree with each other.

Dropping alternating bombs/probes every 10 seconds (resulting in about a 20% overlap) seems to result in the best returns and most consistent hit rate. I have tested this in pvp 3 and 4, eudoria/amarthea, and cnd. At the same time, double bombing is worse. How can that be?

My theory is that it's not just peds spent, but the time frame in which those peds are spent. The alternating bomb/probe style drops X peds in Y time, forcing tt balancing on a regular basis. On the other hand, double bombing is an exception or exclusion to tt balancing for whatever reason.

Note: I have double bombed with same finders, different finders, deeper finders, shallower finders, with time delay, bombs when probes hit and vice versa, and in every single case, the hit rate is lower than the average for that area.

 

[Matho]

Few Comments

Theory 3.
Double bombing leads to bigger Hofs as system restores lost tt.

Comment:
Probably yes, but I dont think Hofs from rebombing are compensating previous losses from rebombing.
I see it as some kind of non-linear mining, wich can leads to unusual hofs too.

Theory 4.
Mining amps reduce rare hit rate.
Ive come to the conclusion the bigger the amp the less rares I find.

Comment:
Absolutly true.
But I noticed interesting thing here. In better loot period is hard to find rares with big amps.
But in bad period is -as I think- system compensating lower TT with rares, also if using bigger amps.
Based on my experiences, best day for rares is monday.


Theory 10
Mining is tedious boring theory.
Face it mining kinda sucks, save mining for when you hit a bad loot cycle to pull you through it. If your hunting and loots fantastic, keep hunting. Loot tends to stay hot in one profession for you over a period of time. I am also finding that one of the three professions seems to be hotter then the others at any given time. So if hunting or crafting is hot keep it up if it goes bad mine your losses away (or at least reduce what your loosing each day)

Comment:
True.
But in really bad period you can be doing very badly in all professions. Switching simply isnt usefull here.

 

[Tamn]

good sound advice, definitively the basis for all miners and mining activity.

 

[JohnCapital]

Using this theory I believe its best to drop 400 probes and 400 bombs in a run. This most of the time will be enough drops to get you to a more consistent high tt return.

Also just dropping 100 bombs is same as killing 25 mobs, its just not enough to properly cycle through your loot.

800 total drops per run?!?!? Some of us have lives y'know.

However, since an avg. percentage of overall TT is returned eventually, doesn't that just mean the avg. relaxing player who does 100 bomb/probe runs simply has his results even out over a longer period of time?

I.E. 100 bombs over 4 days = 400 bombs today.

100 bomb runs doesn't those runs will all suck. It simply means the mean avg. TT return will vary more wildly from run to run, kind of like comparing any 100 bombs/probes to another within the middle of your l-o-n-g run.

 

[DoubleWolf]

800 total drops per run?!?!? Some of us have lives y'know.

However, since an avg. percentage of overall TT is returned eventually, doesn't that just mean the avg. relaxing player who does 100 bomb/probe runs simply has his results even out over a longer period of time?

I.E. 100 bombs over 4 days = 400 bombs today.

100 bomb runs doesn't those runs will all suck. It simply means the mean avg. TT return will vary more wildly from run to run, kind of like comparing any 100 bombs/probes to another within the middle of your l-o-n-g run.

Yeah, it takes me on average about 1.5 hours to do 100 bombs/probes while extracting each claim as I go. That means it would take me about 12 hours to do an 800 bomb/probe run. I simply don't have that kind of time.

But I agree that while doing 100 at a time versus doing 800 at a time may see each individual run swing a little more wildly, I think the end result of either doing 8 (x 100) runs or doing 1 (x 800) run should be about the same.

 

[DoubleWolf]

Well 5000 drops in one spot is same as my double bombing theory you won't get loot doing that as you drop the 5000 but possibly 5000 peds dumped in one spot may lead to a tower a few days or weeks later. Would love to see someone test that actually.

I would love to see that test too. We all know that it doesn't work that way in hunting, where if you kill a bunch of mobs and don't loot them, your average loot then doesn't improve when you actually start looting them.

But we also know that loot is generated on looting of the mob, and not before, which leads me to believe that the act of looting is kind of like a "ticket" and MA knows how much the average loot of that ticket should be. Too many "no loot" tickets may build up to where they give you back a good loot.

Of course that's all just theory, but we do know that loot doesn't improve after not looting mobs, so the system doesn't take into account wasteful spending. Spending 5000 peds shooting at the moon will not improve your returns when you actually start hunting again.

But mining could be different. I would think that loot is generated on the dropping of a bomb, as after the search you know the size of the claim if you get one. But since we believe the system doesn't account for wasteful spending, is dropping a bomb in the same place over and over considered wasteful? If each bomb dropped still counts as a "no loot" ticket, then I would think you would indeed see an improvement in loot after doing this. Bearing in mind that if you did 5000 in the same spot and then 5000 as normal, you would still have the same type of return over that 10,000, but the latter 5000 would be better than normal. But it's only a hypothesis.

Someone want to try it?

 

[xX Gently Xx]

from my experience loot is not avatar based - rather mor or less evenly distribute. It comes in waves of ups and downs, sometimes unrelated to professions. Today was a great day for me in hunting and mining, also for a lot of my socmates and friends from other soc. So that wave lifted more then just me. Coincidence? meby, but I get a feeling from playing that its more about right time/right place. It would also explain the noob uberloots.

I know Hijacker disagrees, but my experience supports more the theory that loot isn't avatar based. And people who lose a lot and then get a big hof that evens things out just ended up at right place on right time because they stayed active and by that increased their chances ;-)

imho that is

Posted via Mobile Device

 

[PopFuzz]

800 drops is a lot for most people, but to me it is the size of the short loot cycle for both professions.

Think of it this way, it takes 4 drops on avg to produce a loot. So its like taking 4 shots with a gun to loot a mob. So that being the case it takes 400 drops to get 100 loots. Now if you go hunting and only kill 25 mobs that is the same as going and only dropping 100 bombs.

The thing is in theory If I drop 100 a day for 8 days or 800 in one day loot should be the same. But talking to alot of people who come to me for help I hear alot about really bad tt returns so it may be just as much a moral boost as it is trying to get better returns. If you go and kill only 25 mobs very good chance you will not get your peak loot to balance out your loot and the same is true with dropping only 100 bombs.

If you can't do 800 drops do at least 400 (200 of each) this way one of the two professions will prob hit its peak loot and avg your tt return out.


Also 12 hours for 800 drops is too much, can be done in 6 hours if your not distracted reading ef every drop (like I am doing now) and you use fast excavators.

In the end the reason why I recommend doing 800 drops is so you get your proper TT return of 80-90% and you don't end your day being pissed.

If you only do 200 drops (100 of each) a day there is a good chance 3 out of 4 days will see 40-60% tt return and then one 120-140% tt return which means 3 days you are pissed off ready to quit because of the bad TT return and then the 4th day you feel lucky

800 total drops per run?!?!? Some of us have lives y'know.

However, since an avg. percentage of overall TT is returned eventually, doesn't that just mean the avg. relaxing player who does 100 bomb/probe runs simply has his results even out over a longer period of time?

I.E. 100 bombs over 4 days = 400 bombs today.

100 bomb runs doesn't those runs will all suck. It simply means the mean avg. TT return will vary more wildly from run to run, kind of like comparing any 100 bombs/probes to another within the middle of your l-o-n-g run.

 

[levithanikos]

Nice thread and theories.

I'll keep an eye on it

 

[PopFuzz]

Yes definitely I don't think the game returns tt if its purely wasted, Shooting into the sky, dropping a pile of peds on the ground, paying other players huge MU etc

But I do believe the system balances out lost peds if they are lost within the system. So for instance I truely believe if you clicked 1000 peds tt of OA 101 on cond and got 200 ped TT back the system will later return say 600-700 TT to give you the proper 80-90% TT you were suppose to have.

That does not mean you will get the 100 peds in MU you paid for materials to click the OA-101 but the more then usual TT loss will come back.

This happens to me alot (5 or 6 of my last 7 Hofs mining occured right after such a high tt loss crafting etc) Also a Soc mate of mine had a 1500 ped Warrior Hof the day after he had a 1000+ ped plus crafting tt Loss.

Now the question is, if your dropping bombs or double bombing in the same spot does the system treat that as wasted peds AKA shooting at the moon, or does it treat it as Peds that the system will restore later to give you a proper tt return.

BTW one note on TT return being restored, I hear alot of people say Im owed a ATH cause I have lost so much on TT. Well you got to look at your losses, if you are hunting or mining on taxed land that is 4% TT you are not getting back, 5% if you are in space. I also believe armor and fap decay is lost TT that never gets returned. If your hunting a mob and spending 5-10% of your TT on defense that is all lost TT. And the system itself takes a few percent of your TT return that is how MA makes its money. If you are hitting 85-90% TT return then thats all your gonna get that extra 10-15% is not restoring. What I am talking about is if you go and hunt or mine or craft and get a TT return way below expected, that is when you will see loot that restored in the form of hofs or high TT profit.

Of course that's all just theory, but we do know that loot doesn't improve after not looting mobs, so the system doesn't take into account wasteful spending. Spending 5000 peds shooting at the moon will not improve your returns when you actually start hunting again.

Someone want to try it?

 

[PopFuzz]

I think you guys are both right, there are days when the general trend is really decent loot (when all my pals are happy) and other days when most are seeing shit loot (and everyone is mad).

I think MA turns on and off general Loot for whatever reasons, but that being said I still think the system follows a pattern of giving you bigger loots to avg your TT out to 90% is when loot is good and 80% when its bad. For proof look at all the Projects and blogs almost everyone has a similar TT return.

from my experience loot is not avatar based - rather mor or less evenly distribute. It comes in waves of ups and downs, sometimes unrelated to professions. Today was a great day for me in hunting and mining, also for a lot of my socmates and friends from other soc. So that wave lifted more then just me. Coincidence? meby, but I get a feeling from playing that its more about right time/right place. It would also explain the noob uberloots.

I know Hijacker disagrees, but my experience supports more the theory that loot isn't avatar based. And people who lose a lot and then get a big hof that evens things out just ended up at right place on right time because they stayed active and by that increased their chances ;-)

imho that is

Posted via Mobile Device

 

[PopFuzz]

Well I think we are both sorta agreeing, I tend to mine a lot more when all 3 professions are sucking bad. The MU helps you pull through that weaker 80% or less TT phase (as long as yoru not using high mu amps)

So basically what im saying is save the switching when what your doing is failing, if you are hunting and loots good no reason to change

Theory 10
Mining is tedious boring theory.
Face it mining kinda sucks, save mining for when you hit a bad loot cycle to pull you through it. If your hunting and loots fantastic, keep hunting. Loot tends to stay hot in one profession for you over a period of time. I am also finding that one of the three professions seems to be hotter then the others at any given time. So if hunting or crafting is hot keep it up if it goes bad mine your losses away (or at least reduce what your loosing each day)

Comment:
True.
But in really bad period you can be doing very badly in all professions. Switching simply isnt usefull here.

 

[xX Gently Xx]

I think MA turns on and off general Loot for whatever reasons, but that being said I still think the system follows a pattern of giving you bigger loots to avg your TT out to 90% is when loot is good and 80% when its bad. For proof look at all the Projects and blogs almost everyone has a similar TT return.

80 - 90% returnes can come from an evenly balanced loot system. there are a lot of blogs where ppl do well, but a lot that do terrible. check out Strash's blog, or Hugh Willows (DK), and I dont doubt that Strash will get his luck up, but not because the system will whenever return what it's due, but because he stayes active, and by doing that increases his chances.
if it was avatar based such returns on losses would be more consistent, and form a certain pattern, and to make things how they are MA would have to purposely randomize the returns to make it look how it is now. just seems too complicated, when u can take the peds spent end evenly straw them onto the fields of activities (metaphore ;-p), categorized by professions and mobs.
Posted via Mobile Device

 

[PopFuzz]

Id have to see Strash's TT spent and TT return on his mining to see where he falls TT return wise plus his crafting and hunting TT return to see how hes doing compared to others.

You could be right of course but with any theory we both need more evidence and Data to back it up or dispute it

Heres my data from since 10/7/09

Crafting
88,885 TT spent
73,223 TT return
82.37%

Mining
88,260 TT Spent (not including excuvator)
84,723 TT return
95.99%

Hunting
134,295 TT Spent (weapon costs only)
129,249 TT Return
96.24%

Overal
311440 TT Spent
286,195 TT Return
91.89%

Now if I looked at crafting only my TT looks weak but the tt lost there was returned in the other professions.
If I added in armor cost etc would be worse tt return but as i believe that is just given to ma not returned in loot my numbers fall right in that 90% ish range I expect over time.

As for TT restoring I will put the Theory to a test ill post anytime I take a more then expected TT loss doing normal activity's and then predict when ill get hof or TT profit run.

80 - 90% returnes can come from an evenly balanced loot system. there are a lot of blogs where ppl do well, but a lot that do terrible. check out Strash's blog, or Hugh Willows (DK), and I dont doubt that Strash will get his luck up, but not because the system will whenever return what it's due, but because he stayes active, and by doing that increases his chances.
if it was avatar based such returns on losses would be more consistent, and form a certain pattern, and to make things how they are MA would have to purposely randomize the returns to make it look how it is now. just seems too complicated, when u can take the peds spent end evenly straw them onto the fields of activities (metaphore ;-p), categorized by professions and mobs.
Posted via Mobile Device

 

[Dblood1]

Good thread, I agree with almost everything Poppy says

 

[DoubleWolf]

The idea of "TT restoring" is kind of a touchy subject with people and this thread could go on forever debating whether or not that's actually how it works. It's the reason that I believe the system isn't really gambling, but there are plenty of other threads to discuss that in if you want to go there.

I believe that's how the system works as well, and I can see that from my own runs that I track. Also, another great example of this can be seen in one of my soc mates. He's been in the game maybe 3 months now and globals more times in one day than I have in the entire 2 years I've been here. But he also spends upwards of 20k peds a day on crafting. He's actually one of the top 25 crafters in the game now according to tracker.

But he was getting pretty negative on the month until he hit an 8k argo young. That's pretty unusual, considering the average global value on youngs is about 88.6 according to tracker. However, this loot didn't get him back to even, but a little ways under that. Then a few days later he got a nearly 3k craft on oreamps. Still not even, but pretty close.

Now you could say that because he's spending so much, he was bound to hit some big loots anyways and just got lucky. But it also makes a very strong case for the "TT restoring" theory as well...