The deed revenue is easy to figure using MA's assumptions (provided that the last line of the original post should read: "3. That the Average Revenue per Paying User
per month (ARPU) will be 3 USD." and not the way they have it.)
https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/showthread.php?263253-ComPet-App-Deeds
100,000 players = 20,000 paying players x $3 dollars per month = $60000 per month x 12 months = $720,000 per year x .3 (30%) = $216,000 paid to the deeds each year / 200,000 deeds = $1.08 per year per deed.
The deeds cost $10.
$1.08 is clearly
not a 50% ROI as shown on the graph.
250,000 players would pay the deeds 2.5 x as much or $2.70 per deed per year which is also clearly
not the 130% ROI as shown in the graph.
To get a 50% ROI there would have to be 462,962.96 players on average at all times through the year.
(5$ / 1.08 * 100,000)
Point 1 in the final paragraph of their OP ("1. That the average user lifespan will be six months"), has nothing to do with the graph that I can see, so I'm not sure why that is listed as one of the assumptions underlying the graph.
Unless the whole thing is just piss-poorly worded (it is MA after all), then the graph is not accurate by a long shot.
I may be missing something about the 6 months per player thing, it is getting pretty late here and I'm getting older.
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$2.70 a year on a $10 deed is a great ROI but the buyer is making a lot of risky assumptions.
Assumption 1: They will actually finish the app.
Assumption 2: The app will be popular for years to come.
Assumption 3: This will be legal in the US and not be deemed online gambling. (Could still work anyway without US participation.)
Assumption 4: It won't take 4 months to withdraw your 'winnings'. (If it's business as usual, the app would be DOA)
Assumption 5: They will be able to stop people from using exploits. (Good Luck!)
Somewhat off-topic: I haven't seen any discussion of this point from the OP:
"....or enlisted for defense duty at the user’s home base."