Continuation of The Nightbird's Correct Loot Theory

Joined
May 20, 2007
Posts
9,184
Location
England
Society
Guess Who
Avatar Name
George Ace Skywalker
https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/showthread.php?46263-Nightbird-s-Loot-Distribution-Theory

This thread is intended to continue discussion of The Nightbird's Loot Distribution Theory which I think most will agree had some interesting and correct observations. However, this theory is probably not valid anymore and may have been adapted or changed with loot 2.0


So if you want to continue discussion of his theory please feel free to do so.

If you want to discuss how it may have changed and what the theory may be now again please feel free to do so.
 

LangeTobias

Elite
Joined
Nov 22, 2009
Posts
3,736
Location
Gislaved
Avatar Name
Edgewise
https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/showthread.php?46263-Nightbird-s-Loot-Distribution-Theory

This thread is intended to continue discussion of The Nightbird's Loot Distribution Theory which I think most will agree had some interesting and correct observations. However, this theory is probably not valid anymore and may have been adapted or changed with loot 2.0


So if you want to continue discussion of his theory please feel free to do so.

If you want to discuss how it may have changed and what the theory may be now again please feel free to do so.

Interesting, considering that today during the hunt we hit 2 hofs back to back while having a lot of fire power.

Pics: (Check ammo count)

First:


Second (following mob)
 

Rocket192

Stalker
Joined
Nov 16, 2012
Posts
2,121
Location
Michigan
Society
Apocalyptic
Avatar Name
Sean Rocket Connors
This is what I have based all of my mining theories off of since 2011.

What I've learned is that it's wholly irrlelvant because multipliers are what matter and there's no way to beat the cool down timer on a finder... the introduction of buffs came far after the cooldown was removed, but I suspect 45% acc indoors and no finder cooldown would be pretty fucking crazy lol.


In any sense.. a more worthwhile analysis is that of multipliers. I've been unable to conclusively determine how a player hits a multiplier in mining, but I have narrowed it into two categories... resource availability and avatar sine waves.

1) sine waves dictate the expected 91% TT return and multipliers on high volume (crafting)resources that come unexpectedly push an avatar beyond the standard TT return. This it's a balancing act... high markup resources are typically low volume so your TT will suffer, while high volume resources have garbage markup, but you can get higher tt nearer to 100% by mining highly available and uncapped resources.

I've probably said too much and I don't have enough data yet, but it's a work in progress. My data does support nightbird's theory for resource claim generation. It's the only mechanism which matches the volatility of mining. Further, it's consistent with my data that shows double and triple dropping reduces TT variance respectively. Single dropping is the most volatile because of this. I would even go as far to say that each type of resource has its own timing as Nightbird suggested.
 

Count Joe

Stalker
Joined
Feb 23, 2005
Posts
1,586
Society
Freelancer
Avatar Name
Count Joe
where did Nightbird go? I reckon hes Ava is deleted now tho:(
 
Joined
May 20, 2007
Posts
9,184
Location
England
Society
Guess Who
Avatar Name
George Ace Skywalker
where did Nightbird go? I reckon hes Ava is deleted now tho:(
Looks as if he stopped using forum in 2011. Maybe playing quietly or more likely taken a loooong break possibly for forever ...
 

R4tt3xx

I want to believe
Joined
Apr 10, 2005
Posts
1,884
Location
South Africa
Society
Freelancer
Avatar Name
Alexis Sky Greenstar
This is what I have based all of my mining theories off of since 2011.

What I've learned is that it's wholly irrlelvant because multipliers are what matter and there's no way to beat the cool down timer on a finder... the introduction of buffs came far after the cooldown was removed, but I suspect 45% acc indoors and no finder cooldown would be pretty fucking crazy lol.


In any sense.. a more worthwhile analysis is that of multipliers. I've been unable to conclusively determine how a player hits a multiplier in mining, but I have narrowed it into two categories... resource availability and avatar sine waves.

1) sine waves dictate the expected 91% TT return and multipliers on high volume (crafting)resources that come unexpectedly push an avatar beyond the standard TT return. This it's a balancing act... high markup resources are typically low volume so your TT will suffer, while high volume resources have garbage markup, but you can get higher tt nearer to 100% by mining highly available and uncapped resources.

I've probably said too much and I don't have enough data yet, but it's a work in progress. My data does support nightbird's theory for resource claim generation. It's the only mechanism which matches the volatility of mining. Further, it's consistent with my data that shows double and triple dropping reduces TT variance respectively. Single dropping is the most volatile because of this. I would even go as far to say that each type of resource has its own timing as Nightbird suggested.
Have you ever considered that the position of the sine wave may be dependent on player activity ? High amount of spending and trade, the multipliers go up, low spending equals lower than normal loot. Its simply a reaction to players.

Single dropping yes is interesting as you are cutting your chances of hitting something by 66.66667% You also only cover about 73% of a typical mining square cell with your probe (73% of 33% is 25.9%) Makes perfect sense to me...

I can then safely assume that resources cover every square m of the planet, and you have a base chance of 33% to find it. The problem is circle squaring...
 

Rocket192

Stalker
Joined
Nov 16, 2012
Posts
2,121
Location
Michigan
Society
Apocalyptic
Avatar Name
Sean Rocket Connors
Have you ever considered that the position of the sine wave may be dependent on player activity ? High amount of spending and trade, the multipliers go up, low spending equals lower than normal loot. Its simply a reaction to players..
This statement is correct....

Mining is less volatile and hofs are more plentiful when more miners are dropping and more crafters are burning resources...

My hit rate/returns consistently drop off around 11:00pm US EST time... which is ironically when the player volume drastically decreases until EU players wake up a few hours later.

Loot is always better in EU when more people are playing in a specified profession. At least those are my observations... the best times to play are consistently 17:00 to 01:00 MA.
 

wizz

Elite
Joined
May 29, 2005
Posts
3,814
Location
Brabant
Society
The Ministry
Avatar Name
Wizzina Wizz Pale Moon
Have you ever considered that the position of the sine wave may be dependent on player activity ? High amount of spending and trade, the multipliers go up, low spending equals lower than normal loot. Its simply a reaction to players.
Ahh, this explains my 1800 ped merry snarg hof after 3 years of near inactivity, not spending a dime. :rolleyes:


Well, I have the feeling that the more I get active and the more I spend, the worse loot becomes.

Theories theories...

Have you ever considered that if I rub my budhas belly while he sits in front of my screen affects my loot results? :eyecrazy:

Really, it works!

Btw, I sell this litle buddha figurine for just 50k ped.

Send me a PM if you want near guaranteed more loot.
 

R4tt3xx

I want to believe
Joined
Apr 10, 2005
Posts
1,884
Location
South Africa
Society
Freelancer
Avatar Name
Alexis Sky Greenstar
Are there still timings that still work?

Reason for me asking is that I feel that I have got pieces of the loot distribution system, and timing could be a missing one..
 

NPV

Banned
Joined
Apr 4, 2015
Posts
661
Avatar Name
Naming Policy Violation
This statement is correct....

Mining is less volatile and hofs are more plentiful when more miners are dropping and more crafters are burning resources...

My hit rate/returns consistently drop off around 11:00pm US EST time... which is ironically when the player volume drastically decreases until EU players wake up a few hours later.

Loot is always better in EU when more people are playing in a specified profession. At least those are my observations... the best times to play are consistently 17:00 to 01:00 MA.
+1

my crafting TT returns follow similar patterns. When I do not need something specific quick, I try to avoid crafting between 4 am and 4pm MA time. I can't remember having a bad run in crafting between 6-9pm MA time. Like never.

I will rework my sheets from 1jan 2018, will add timestamps and daily circulation instead totals by category. Will be better to follow "bad" times to do anything at all.

I do feel for people who play MA "offtime" where returns are really bad whatever you do :)
 
Joined
Nov 18, 2015
Posts
23
This is what I have based all of my mining theories off of since 2011.


In any sense.. a more worthwhile analysis is that of multipliers. I've been unable to conclusively determine how a player hits a multiplier in mining, but I have narrowed it into two categories... resource availability and avatar sine waves.

"__Why do I think this is a reasonable method for MA to control loot? That is because of the loot window. The loot window size, like in the example above, determines the returns of a person dropping randomly. If the window was [6 to 12], then that person would hit alot and profit, if the window was [11 to 12], then that person is gonna cry if he persists too long. With the change of a single number, by making the window [0 to 1] or [.5 to 1] or [.75 to 1], MA can create good and bad periods with no formula changes or server load."



Now i don`t know about this formula numbers but man I sure do feel like my multipliers or loot window or events or whatever you wanna call them is something manipulated or controled.I took like a 10month break after my last years mining ordeal and ivd returned recently to be getting a welcome back present of hofs in my first 3 mining runs planetside...what a concidence...and to make this as short as possible since then and after like 20k drops mostly amped I have not hit anything past an occasional abundant or rare great and constant losses ofcourse to balance things out.Most my runs(planetside) seem to be very simillar ,somewhere around the 150ish drop I hit the lowest event possible(like a poor for unamped enmatter) and 200-250 drops later another low (average for unamped enmatter that pops up to abundant amped).I might just take another long break.
 

R4tt3xx

I want to believe
Joined
Apr 10, 2005
Posts
1,884
Location
South Africa
Society
Freelancer
Avatar Name
Alexis Sky Greenstar
In any sense.. a more worthwhile analysis is that of multipliers. I've been unable to conclusively determine how a player hits a multiplier in mining, but I have narrowed it into two categories... resource availability and avatar sine waves.
Resource availability... That would depend on how many peds are in the system which would depend on the habits of the game's miners.... Smart play will reduce the amount of peds in the system as everyone is playing eco.

My vision of the loot pool if it was a physical thing would be a triangular tank. It is not possible to suck out of the tank if you are not extracting at the correct level, I am not talking about depth here but several mathematical constructs that are stacked on on top of the other. A "Multiplier" is simply the addition of all points that are below each other in multiple arrays.

I have a model in Excel that I am working from so research is in progress using a modified "boom.xls" file as a template.
 

R4tt3xx

I want to believe
Joined
Apr 10, 2005
Posts
1,884
Location
South Africa
Society
Freelancer
Avatar Name
Alexis Sky Greenstar
Here's a brain fart...

How about controlling the window based on the amount of resources in the pool ? Just like a valve ....
 

R4tt3xx

I want to believe
Joined
Apr 10, 2005
Posts
1,884
Location
South Africa
Society
Freelancer
Avatar Name
Alexis Sky Greenstar
Just for sh1ts and giggle I though I would throw together 2 little spirals.... seeing as there is not much going on, on the forums today and cause I'm bored.

Example Number Spiral
Example Fermat Spiral


Back in the day of Project Entropia, the formula distance=sqrt(current minute)*radius was used to by myself to mine the crap out of the then present veins that spawned. It was very easy to perform, when you dropped a bomb, press t and get the current minute. Apply the formula and move the resultant distance, drop a probe, move radius and keep moving and dropping till you missed, rinse repeat...

Eventually I got greedy and figured out a way to turn this "dynamic system" into a static one...

How does this apply to Nightbird's theory... They both use a circle as their base, I turn time into x and y coordinates, Nightbird just drops on the correct second / millisecond in order to find loot.

One day when it no longer applies, I will show how I "jumped out of time" so to speak... But I think the math still applies today...
 

R4tt3xx

I want to believe
Joined
Apr 10, 2005
Posts
1,884
Location
South Africa
Society
Freelancer
Avatar Name
Alexis Sky Greenstar
Just for sh1ts and giggle I though I would throw together 2 little spirals.... seeing as there is not much going on, on the forums today and cause I'm bored.

Example Number Spiral
Example Fermat Spiral


Back in the day of Project Entropia, the formula distance=sqrt(current minute)*radius was used to by myself to mine the crap out of the then present veins that spawned. It was very easy to perform, when you dropped a bomb, press t and get the current minute. Apply the formula and move the resultant distance, drop a probe, move radius and keep moving and dropping till you missed, rinse repeat...

Eventually I got greedy and figured out a way to turn this "dynamic system" into a static one...

How does this apply to Nightbird's theory... They both use a circle as their base, I turn time into x and y coordinates, Nightbird just drops on the correct second / millisecond in order to find loot.

One day when it no longer applies, I will show how I "jumped out of time" so to speak... But I think the math still applies today...
I have a variant of this theory that seems to work, that I need help testing if there are any of Nightbird's crew left :p
 
Top