It has happened again......

[lilac]

You seem to be completely mixing two separate ideas. In half your posts you're discussing whether or not personal decay causes better loot for that particular person. In other parts your posts you're saying that server-wide decay causes general loot to go up.

Which point are you addressing?

ok... last post before we should probably take this to PM or a seperate thread...

but i do think the ideas mix naturally insofar as individual decay constitutes a portion of total decay (I'm including ammo burn as decay, btw...). The 2 are probably separate factors in determining loot, along with too many other factors for any of us to really understand enough to use to our advantage.
_________________

actually, back on the original topic, I think that Individual decay "spikes" are one of these multipliers, A lot of things people consider "luck", such as post deposit luck, noob luck, returning player luck, beginning new profession luck, even "first mob of the day" luck all have in common that people are probably spending at a much higher rate then they were previously...

 

[Mikeemooo]

Dude, you were REFERRING to that graph in a debate about TT return - i told you that it's probably a neat graph, but in relation to the topic it is useless, because you have recorded return INCLUDING markup. You ignored that, though, didn't you..

And I clearly stated that although I accepted it wasn't 100% right because it included markup, it gave a good overall impression because the markup was minimal on the mobs I hunted.

Just a last line: Scientific research is mostly teamwork, simply because of the sheer amount of data that need to be recorded and evaluated

Hence creating a tool

- you just can't be part of a team, because you cannot accept any opinion other than your own.

I do not accept things stated as FACT when there is no evidence. I'm pretty sure that anybody reading this can agree with this. As for my own opinions - I would not give an opinion as 'fact' unless I had data to support it. So what opinions have I given so far?

Please don't - there's already too much trojan infested stuff out there, and a lot of programs that offer exactly this functionality - we don't need another nobody to run his code on the 'puters of naive noobs.

Please link me to said tools with exactly this functionality. As far a 'nobody' running his 'trojan infested code' on the computers of naive noobs, the project will be open source once released.

And i can already imagine how you react when someone suggest an improvement to this tool: Insults, pouting, aggression.

Sure..

 

[Mikeemooo]

The 2 are probably separate factors in determining loot, along with too many other factors for any of us to really understand enough to use to our advantage.

I agree that the loot distribution doesn't appear to be entirely random - so far as the 'waves' of good/bad spells I've recorded are unlikely to happen if the system was completely random, but from a business point of view I can see little benefit of personal decay/waste determining loot.

I'd like to do more tests in this area and try a lot more runs with both efficient and inefficient setups. Just takes a lot of time and I only manage to hunt a few hours each day.

actually, back on the original topic, I think that Individual decay "spikes" are one of these multipliers, A lot of things people consider "luck", such as post deposit luck, noob luck, returning player luck, beginning new profession luck, even "first mob of the day" luck all have in common that people are probably spending at a much higher rate then they were previously...

I think my main issue with this is that it's extremely hard to verify. I think that having figures that show how many active players there actually are at different skill level would help to work out if this is actually true or if it just seems to be the case.

For example, Buck Stone didn't have a big TT loot for the entire time he played. His highest loot was about 2k, but he'd received about 200k PED in smaller loots. Sure, that seems crazy and it seems crazy that new players are getting big ATH's. But I do wonder if when you add up the amount of hunting done by noobs, it'd be a colossal amount compared to Buck alone, so the chances of a noob getting a big loot (in relation to the mob size they hunt) is far greater.

It'd be great to have those statistics to look at, but unfortunately they're very hard to gather.

 

[Mikeemooo]

To further that, I would speculate (PLEASE NOTE: this is not fact) that all mobs have a similar loot payout 'curve', but the amount returned is simply lower for lower mobs.

For example if you check out each mob on entropia tracker, you'll probably see that mobs seem to have a maximum payout, and there's probably exactly the same chance of getting that maximum payout on every mob, but the PED value will just be lower on smaller mobs. - Every mob having their own 'ATH payout'.

So although it can seem like you get a lot of lucky noobs, I imagine there's just a hell of a lot more noobs hunting so there's far more chance of an uber loot being paid out from a smaller mob.

To demonstrate what I mean with pictures: http://entropia.mikeefranklin.co.uk/payout.gif

Where the blue line is obviously the noob mob.

It may seem crazy and unfair that someone gets a 20k argo when they only have 20 hunting globals, but possibly the majority of players in game only have around 20 hunting globals - then it becomes a lot less crazy.

Some people may think I'm just stating the obvious here, others may think my take on the system is lunacy - but either way it's just an opinion.

 

[lilac]

I agree that the loot distribution doesn't appear to be entirely random - so far as the 'waves' of good/bad spells I've recorded are unlikely to happen if the system was completely random, but from a business point of view I can see little benefit of personal decay/waste determining loot.

From MA's "business" point of view, it would make perfect sense that the "big one" would come occasionally from someone doing something ill advised and asonine... makes people that much more likely to burn stupid amounts of ped trying to repeat it.

From a personal "business" point of view... you're right, it makes absolutely no sense to go completely uneco in order to up the odds of a good loot becoming a great loot (by 0.2 percent). It might, however, make sense to up decay a tiny bit if loot seems lackluster. A bit more fun if your mini's become globals and your 50 ped globals are 100 ped globals... even if it means the bad spells hit you harder.

I'd like to do more tests in this area and try a lot more runs with both efficient and inefficient setups. Just takes a lot of time and I only manage to hunt a few hours each day.

I'd rather continue to grind my argos with a p5a and let soccies tell me how Their setups are working for them

I think my main issue with this is that it's extremely hard to verify. I think that having figures that show how many active players there actually are at different skill level would help to work out if this is actually true or if it just seems to be the case.

I've seen so many new players in my soc get odds defying loots, there has to be at least a grain of truth to this...

most recently, a year old ava who had spent most of his time as a swunter got a 15k unamped lyst tower on his first ever bomb... There are plenty of other equally improbable but less remarkable stories to point to.

I can say that my uber argo (probably one of the top 10 all time for mid sized argo) a few weeks ago came after a 40 ped transport fee and 70 ped armour repair bill, which is quite uncharacteristic for my gaming style. I'm by no means a noob, but i think I may have benefited from the same kind of mechanism.

I'll agree with you that an empirical test would be near impossible...

 

[VmaX]

Its fun to read all kinds of theories and explanations about why and how a noob can get an uber and how loot is distributed.
For me only counts that I have played since 2002 and I am lvl 61 laser and blp sniper now (no chipping so countless hours of hunting) and after depositing thousands of dollars into this game over the years, the only >1K loot I got was a onetimer 5K oil hof on a maffoid. some years ago.
So, how many noobs have to play this game to make it "normal odds" that every day a noob gets a large welcome bonus and I have to struggle to get more than 3 days of playtime for my monthly €100,- deposit.

Same goes for enmatter mining, Ive got to level 20 now, and I could not find a deposit higher than about 200 ped in all those years. Some time ago I learned a noob how to do enmatter mining and within three days he had 4 claimes higher than 500 ped and one 2K deposit

And dont start me on crafting

So could someone please explain to me how I can fit all this into chance calculation?
Until someone does, I stay convinced that luck is avatar related and there s a big fat NO LOOT behind my name in the MA database.

One of Nine

 

[Xandra]

Hi,

was absent for a few days, sry. Not sure if I'm still on topic here. So I kindly ask a mod to decide - feel free to move this to anywhere you find suitable, plz just drop me a line, OK? Or drop me a line, and I'll move - as it pleases you. No problem at all, just tell me, plz.

Due to lack of further insight I'd just continue here now:

On the other hand, for say the Billy's Ring in a PVP event, the prize can be set to the ((weapon +armor) decay + ammo ), so they apparently keep track of some decay for some purposes.

A possible answer might be this:

All you have to do is keep a "total TT before" and a "total TT at the point where you determine payouts"

Would work greatly on events, where there'd be no major problem to record TT value when entering, and TT value when finishing. Is it possible to visit an auctioneer during an event?

My (possibly not good enough) tests have shown that a mob killed with a most eco weapon wouldn't loot better then the same mob killed with a most un-eco weapon, as long as the "HP wasted" was equal. So, PED spent to kill a mob wouldn't matter, just the HP wasted - from my present knowledge.

Now I read this:

But the thing is, decay is already calculated too

This is interesting. Any way to prove this beyond the above mentioned event scenario?

To explain my point of view I'll provide two scenarios:

• Argo hunting. I'll collect about 10 young Argos, and then whack 'em down one after the other. What amount of decay would you assign to every single one? How would you determine it? Has MA bazillions of servers ready to check all of this, and still would be able to calculate it in every single loot?
  
  When decay determines loot, every decay spent on every single mob would have to be recorded. Who of them 10 Argos would get my FAP costs?
  .
• Reality check: I attack an Atrax Old Alpha, starting with my Fireforge:
  • Ammo burn due to FF.
  • Ammo burn due to A103.
  • Decay on FF.
  • Decay on A103.
  • Decay on Dynera laser sight.
  • Decay on Cinclar scope.
  Incoming now, I switch to my Justy:
  • Ammo burn due to Justy MKII.
  • Ammo burn due to A104.
  • Decay on Justy MkII.
  • Decay on A104.
  • Decay on Abrer laser sight.
  • Decay on Bjornir scope.
  • Decay on Abrer laser sight on the Bjornir.
  Sh*t, it's still alive, has reached me, switching to my trusty Merc:
  • Ammo burn due to EWE EP-40.
  • Ammo burn due to A103.
  • Decay on EWE EP-40.
  • Decay on A103.
  • Decay on Dynera laser sight.
  • Decay on Cinclar scope.
  • Decay on Dynera laser sight on the Cinclar.
  • Decay on the 14 different pieces of my armor.
  • Decay of the different FAP's I'm damned to use now - SK20, 2350, 2600.
  Still not dead, this sucker! Feel the love of my sword! Wielding my trusty Embra:
  • Decay on my UL Embra.
  • Decay on the 14 different pieces of my armor,
  • Decay of the different FAP's I'm damned to use now - SK20, 2350, 2600.
  Cool, I win! Korss 380 as finisher, with a103:
  • Ammo burn due to Korss 380
  • Ammo burn due to A103
  • Decay on Korss 380
  • Decay on A103
  And getting up to nearly full HP:
  • T1 for the win - but as cheap as it is, it costs, too.

Now tell me that MA would record such for every single mob we'd kill, for anyone of us, to determine the loot we'd receive. How they'd be able to keep records of such?

Any single Atrax I kill will spawn a crazy load of decay messages, and I kill 'em very fast! Even if only using my 4 types of weapons, and only max. 3 types of FAPs. Recording the costs to use, for every single mob killed, would be ways beyond the possible. Agree?

A solution would be to calculate TT in -TT out. But this is another topic, only suiting events.

Joat claims that more un-eco gear would give better loots. My experience is diametrical, and I've read nothing supporting this claim yet.

But I'd be ready to burn 200 - 300 PED for the sake of knowledge. Maybe we should find another place to talk about then, and maybe we should ask ppl like Falcao that have already proved to be able to handle.

Have fun!

 

[wizzszz]

Would work greatly on events, where there'd be no major problem to record TT value when entering, and TT value when finishing. Is it possible to visit an auctioneer during an event?

Why only events? You adjust the INs and OUTs according to auctions - it's not that hard:

Pixie harness, TT= 1.25, sold for 2.00 (let's ignore auction fees here)

The moment it gets sold, your "total account TT" rises by 0.75

Let's say the first "account TT BEFORE" was calculated the moment you logged in.
Then all you have to do is to add 0.75 to this BEFORE value, so it will not confused with payed-out loot.
I see no problem with this, actually it is a really simple, really effective mechanism - tracking team (or several players not being in team) damage on a mob is way more complicated.

My (possibly not good enough) tests have shown that a mob killed with a most eco weapon wouldn't loot better then the same mob killed with a most un-eco weapon, as long as the "HP wasted" was equal. So, PED spent to kill a mob wouldn't matter, just the HP wasted - from my present knowledge.

Well, even if it will not improve your loot to pump more PEDs into a mob (on this particular mob), you will loot back what you've wasted, in a global or a mini, as described somewhere above.

Now tell me that MA would record such for every single mob we'd kill, for anyone of us, to determine the loot we'd receive. How they'd be able to keep records of such?

Any single Atrax I kill will spawn a crazy load of decay messages, and I kill 'em very fast! Even if only using my 4 types of weapons, and only max. 3 types of FAPs. Recording the costs to use, for every single mob killed, would be ways beyond the possible. Agree?

Why do you think they keep records of every single action?

They MUST keep track of ammo spent, so ofc they adjust several counters every shot (ammo, amp decay, weapon decay, scope and sight decay & now even possible "enhancer gone")

This happens all in one go, if you equip a weapon, the attachments and the decay values are loaded (hence a spearate "equip" action, before you can "use" it), everytime you fire the weapon, TT is lowered by these loaded values. This happens in RAM, where you keep a list of players currently online, not in the database (but the changes are dumped to database every XX seconds).

Each entry in the list is <1kB, so only 1 GB of ram can hold over 1 million of players (and EU has not have a single day where 1 million of players were only simlutaneously...) - assuming EU has 10k active players at a time, all these records fit into 10 MB - not big, and with a smart binary search, or an "bring up on activity" table (hunting players looked for first, chatting and trading players go to the end of the list), this is incredibly fast, and small enough to run all active players inventories plus track their decay/ammo/whatever on a single server. (the so called "loot server")


Where exactly is the problem?


Actually, keeping a hidden "Loot Pool" stack, kind of a PED stack in inventory, would just require that you add there what you subtract from the ammo counter (for the sake of simplicity, we assume that weapon, scope and sight decay goes to MA, and not back to loot pool) and maybe a fixed percentage of the amp decay.

FAP/armour decay could be calc'ed using the "before vs. after" method i outlined above (that is probably why you usually don't loot these back - they might go into a separate pool, something i'd like to call the "ATH pool")


And well, this is exactly the way i would design a game like EU (server side), and it is not complicated to code, run or maintain such a system - not at all.

 

[Xandra]

Hi,

not sure about all of this. Even not sure if we are not misunderstanding each other ;-)

My basic idea is that "HP wasted" is already calculated. In the very moment a mob gets damage first an array is initialized with at least 2 fields "Damage" and "from player". Each time the mob receives damage a new record is added.
When the mob is dead it's determined who gets what loot, according to these data. The array is deleted then, 'cause it's useless now.
If a team is involved, or not, or if 1 player did all the damage, or more but one, this just triggers different methods of calculating.
But the basic "HP wasted" data are already recorded, we can be sure of this. Because they are used in some team loot distribution settings, and in the question of "Who owns that loot".

Tests have been made, and have shown with an IMHO sufficient reliability that actually "HP wasted" is the key, not "raw HP of this maturity".

These data are already available, and are getting used. I guess nobody questions this.

Now about the personal decay, and about the question:

Why only events?

Because it's a load of data to track additionally, and because it wouldn't just give an additional benefit to do this when not needed.

An event is a defined thing. It has a point of start, and a point of ending. Usually only a limited amount of participants is involved. I could imagine that in such cases the decay is tracked, like this:

• At the very beginning of the event an array similar to the one above is initialized for every participant: "PED value", "Action", "whatever else".
• During the event every change in TT ("Action": ammo shot, item decayed, loot received, trade actions etc.) is added/ copied as a new record in this array.
• When the event is over this array then can be filtered and calculated, to get the event results. Then deleted.

Would the personal decay actually be used in the usual loot calculation such an array would be needed for every single mob that gets involved in a fight, i.e. every one of the 10 young Argo around me would have its own array at my avatar. These arrays would need to be quite long lasting, 3 of them might run away, but I might kill them later - and I have already spent decay on them.
So I'd carry a load of such arrays with me whenever hunting, and any other of my beloved co-participants would do, too. For sure, any advanced laptop could handle this these days, regarding the tiny population EU suffers these days. But there was other days when a multiple of todays hunters was whacking the green slime out of them Argos at Twins, and maybe MA hopes to reach these numbers again?

Well, even if it will not improve your loot to pump more PEDs into a mob (on this particular mob), you will loot back what you've wasted, in a global or a mini, as described somewhere above.

With all due respect to the people that have this opinion, I seriously doubt this and consider it an urban myth. We have countless examples of people pumping PED after PED into this game, over years and years, that then get nice skills, sure, but never the much needed payback. Usually it's mentioned then that they just "wasn't smart enough", but I'd regard this as a little insulting. They had just bad luck, IMHO.

(Guess I should mention that I'm not feeling to be one of those - my TT (items only) reflects roughly the amount of PEDs I deposited, and having a sufficient markup, and counting my sell-able skills, I'm in a small profit even.)

Why do you think they keep records of every single action?

They MUST keep track of ammo spent, so ofc they adjust several counters every shot (ammo, amp decay, weapon decay, scope and sight decay & now even possible "enhancer gone")

Because it would be needed to calculate something useful out of this data maybe?
As mentioned above, I severely doubt the existence of a "personal loot pool", and only for such this would have any meaning.

They MUST keep track of Ammo etc. in certain, comparable rare, cases, yes. But using such a huge monster of tracking and calculating, bit shoveling and CPU torturing, when it's not really necessary, why?

Is there something that might prove that such is done outside of events? For sure, I might have missed.

This happens all in one go, if you equip a weapon, the attachments and the decay values are loaded (hence a spearate "equip" action, before you can "use" it), everytime you fire the weapon, TT is lowered by these loaded values. This happens in RAM, where you keep a list of players currently online, not in the database (but the changes are dumped to database every XX seconds).

For sure, databases are usually cached. And for sure, too, there's entries for every single part of equipment that is used. This are quite simple operations, send an ADD request to the database server to change one fields value.

But to use such data for loot calculation those entries would need to be connected to a certain mob - so a copy would need to be created for every single mob you interact with. And HERE is the problem, IMHO.

Maybe you're talking of a "global decay calculation" while I'm talking about a "mob related decay calculation"?

Actually, keeping a hidden "Loot Pool" stack, kind of a PED stack in inventory, would just require that you add there what you subtract from the ammo counter (for the sake of simplicity, we assume that weapon, scope and sight decay goes to MA, and not back to loot pool) and maybe a fixed percentage of the amp decay.

Ah, here it is! Yes, we are talking of different things.

I deny the existence of a "personal loot pool". This would, IMHO, give much too many possibilities to be abused. By people at MA. A can of worms.
I am very sure that MA (and PPs) have the ability to force special loots in a certain region, on certain mobs - but having the ability to change the parameters of a "personal loot pool" for their participants would be close to be criminal offense, wouldn't it?

You, on the other hand, seem to think that there's kind of a "global decay counter" for every avatar that then plays a role in the loot received. Did I get this right?
I might have jokingly have talked about such (as a way to pay MA employees), but don't you think that such would give the possibility to any MA employee with sufficient rights, to alter this value and such enforce huge loots to anybody they like?

A can of worms, IMHO. And a functionality that could, when ever leaked, destroy MA, and EU. I really doubt that they'd be stupid enough to implement such.

A word about client/ server architecture to the last:

You can be very sure that nothing of importance will reside in your clients RAM. The client will be busy to calculate what you see, and it will often calculate ahead of the server in this regard.
But you'll never ever find any variable of value in your client RAM. Much to easy to monitor certain client RAM addresses, and to change em. This was done since computer games exist, and the MMO ppl are well aware of this.

The end (guess I just need to write something to keep on topic ...):

I'm sure that "HP wasted" is the central point in the loot calculation. There's sufficient prove to be sure that it exists (team distribution rules, "who owns the mob"). So a very powerful mechanism already exists.

I'm reasonable sure that there is nothing like a "personal decay/ loot pool", because such would be a pain (additionally!) to handle, and would open a helluva of possibilities to abuse. And there's enough reports of luck-less long time players that just rebut this theory.

In my book loot is determined simply with using "HP wasted", and quite a few rolls of the dice (random). This sufficiently explains the nOOb HoFs, IMHO. nOObs are killing a huge number of small mobs day-in day-out. Ways more then the mid-level players, and a vast multiple of the few remaining Ubers.
Unavoidably they hit jackpots doing such. When hunting, due to the "HP wasted" rule those are usually quite small. It seems that at mining that there's a less good algorithm implemented.

Have fun!

PS: This discussion is quite enjoyable for me. Plz don't be mad if I have another point of view, let's talk about! And let's hope we're on topic enough to not get strangled by the mods ...

 

[wizzszz]

Xandra, that was a very long post, and i cannot comment on all, but there is one important point:

You say there are huge array needed to track all actions - why? It is not like you need to know where every single spent PEC came from, all you do is keep track of the amounts - that is a single integer.

You seem you have missed quite some points in my last post, hence here a summary:

Noob, buys an opalo and 100 PED ammo.

Noob goes killing snabels.

Every shot has to be handled by the system, as it has to keep track of ammo left and the condition of the opalo.

Now we have 2 basic actions:

"Shoot" and "Loot"

Everytime Noob triggers the "Shoot" action, the server subtracts 2 PEC of ammo from the ammo stack, and subtracts XX mPEC from the TT value of the opalo.

The sum of both subtracted value is added to a hidden loot counter.

There are 3 values involved: TT of the gun, TT of the ammo stack, loot counter.

The system DOES adjust the TT of the gun and TT of the ammo, we do know that.


All i have added to this is a hidden loot counter (per avatar), a single integer.


The system calculates further dmg you inflict to the mob and other stuff, and sends back a reply to you, in which it updates the TT of your Opalo, the TT of your ammo stack, and the updated health of the snable.

Now, Noob has executed "Shoot" a couple of times, and the snable is dead - he triggers the "Loot" action:

Loot is calculated based on whatever (not important for the example), loot type is taken from a loot table - the system subtracts the TT of the loot from your hidden loot counter.

The system sends a reply, in which it updates your inventory with the items in loot (or new stack sizes, in case you already had a stack in inventory)



Most of the stuff i outlined above IS done by the server already, all i have added is the hidden loot counter.

Why is that a complicated system? Why does it (according to you) have "no use"??

You keep posting a scenario in which all actions are LOGGED (i reckon that's what you mean by "tracked") - that would indeed be overly comlpicated, and not needed - but that's not what i have described.

And, seeing how simple a (non-gambling) loot system can be achieved, i think your "why, its too complicated & too complex" point is suffficiently disproven, don't you think?

 

[Xandra]

Hi,

guess I got it finally. We are talking of different things ;-)

You are talking of a global "loot counter" as I understand:

The sum of both subtracted value [ammo spent & decay, edited] is added to a hidden loot counter.
[...]
All i have added to this is a hidden loot counter (per avatar), a single integer.
[...]
the system subtracts the TT of the loot from your hidden loot counter.

Such would, indeed, just need a single counter variable to keep track of. This would then be a value reflecting your results - it could show that you have spent more then you'd have looted, or that you looted more then you'd have spent. Right?

What use would such have then? To have just a result of the "Spent/ Loot relation"? Would it be of help for anything other, maybe to determine certain event results?
(Hint: Melee weapons don't use ammo, even in events with approbate rules)

As I assume this value should be used to ascertain the ominous 90% return, right? But how? It doesn't show any hard numbers of decay (or "PED spent") at all, it just shows the current result of the avatar in question.
A high "profit value" could diminish the probability of a good loot, as a high "loss value" could rise the probability for such - but is there something to substantiate this?

IMHO a simple reality check rebuts the existence of such a "profit/ loss counter", sorry. Would such be really a factor, there'd be no meaning anymore in "hunting at your level", for instance - you'd get rewarded as soon as your "loss counter" reached a certain threshold. Hardcore eco hunters would face the same bad results as fully testosterone fueled people shooting mobs ways beyond their reach with most expensive weapons.

There'd be no withdrawing anymore (except from trading or from extreme luck), and we all would enjoy quite low costs of playing, at least over a certain span of time.

As we all know, it's not this way.
And so I doubt this theory, hoping that I finally understood it.


My idea was another one. I started with searching for proves that another mechanic could exist, besides the "HP wasted" one that is proved due to its use in team loot distribution, and in the question of "who owns this mob?".

People in this this thread pointed me to the event mechanic where all ammo goes to the winner. Since such wouldn't work (Melee weapons don't use ammo) I thought about how to do it. The result is in one of my posts above.

And this would be a pain where it hurts, would it be used outside of the very limited area of events. A Xandra skilling explosives on Merp alone would create insane amounts of data that would be needed to be tracked, because if the decay data would influence the loot on a certain mob (realize the difference here?), each mob would have to have it's own set of data (array) on me.

Such seemed impractical for use outside of small, well defined and controllable events.


Summary, and things left to do:

Guess we just misunderstood each other, and I apologize for my failure in being too stubborn. I still cannot agree to you, but at least I think I got it, finally.
I kindly ask to consider my arguments concerning your theory, maybe I've still overlooked something?

Anyway, thanks for the conversation, I really enjoy this! And even if we'd maybe finally agree to disagree, it's a fun and a pleasure to me!

What gives me headaches now is what Joat wrote, that spending more decay on a mob would give better loot, even with equal HP wasted. My results regarding this are old, and not very substantial.

Anybody doing such tests? Anybody has a place where, for instance, only young Daikiba or only young Exaro reside? Going through some hundreds of mobs to get a sufficient data pool can be a pain, and I'd prefer not to have to burn this much PED for it ...

On the other side, should your theory be true, Wizzszz, such an experiment wouldn't make any sense, because the decay would just improve my result-over-all, not the individual loot of the just killed Daikiba?

Fascinating, this. Have a good time, all!

 

[Miles]

A bit of both, perhaps

Look at a 2-stage system:

1) Each mob kill would generate base loots based on HP destroyed to kill, and pay out accordingly.

2) Meanwhile, a personal counter could be used as a means of triggering a bigger loots to offset losses, remove 'gambling', and stabilize the system.

This 2-stage system would lead to eco players getting fewer big loots, as their cost to kill is low enough to prevent the buildup of relatively large losses. Un-eco players would see wilder swings, as their higher cost to kill will lead to the buildup of larger losses, but also trigger more larger loots to help offset them.

This would make it so eco appears to matter (and it does, to a degree), but where un-eco is not a complete waste of peds - it just leads to an increase in volatility (for the most part). Thus, everyone has the chance to think they are right, and be somewhat correct. It also make testing and/or reverse engineering the system next to impossible.

This also explains things like 'welcome back loot', where elapsed time has triggered the release of some excess losses.

Throw in promotional loots and you have a system that describes what I have observed over the years, including my recent, extended use of a very un-eco weapon setup.

Or, something completely different.



Miles

 

[wizzszz]

Hi,

guess I got it finally. We are talking of different things ;-)

You are talking of a global "loot counter" as I understand:

Yes, but i was kinda mostly addressing your claim that keeping track of TT spent would be "too complicated, too much data to track"

Such would, indeed, just need a single counter variable to keep track of. This would then be a value reflecting your results - it could show that you have spent more then you'd have looted, or that you looted more then you'd have spent. Right?

Actually, it would let you only loot what you have spent, not more (minus a fee for MA, ofc)

What use would such have then? To have just a result of the "Spent/ Loot relation"? Would it be of help for anything other, maybe to determine certain event results?
(Hint: Melee weapons don't use ammo, even in events with approbate rules)

Melee works like amps, decay is added to the loot counter.

As I assume this value should be used to ascertain the ominous 90% return, right? But how? It doesn't show any hard numbers of decay (or "PED spent") at all, it just shows the current result of the avatar in question.
A high "profit value" could diminish the probability of a good loot, as a high "loss value" could rise the probability for such - but is there something to substantiate this?

Not showing any "hard number"? I'm not sure i understand - it shows what your avatar has spent, and how much the system "owes" your avatar. Actually, i think there are at least two loot counter, one for recent expenses, which gets filled by ammo, amp & melee decay, bombs probes and so on... and a second, long term counter - that's where your FAP decay, armour decay, weapon decay goes.

IMHO a simple reality check rebuts the existence of such a "profit/ loss counter", sorry. Would such be really a factor, there'd be no meaning anymore in "hunting at your level", for instance - you'd get rewarded as soon as your "loss counter" reached a certain threshold. Hardcore eco hunters would face the same bad results as fully testosterone fueled people shooting mobs ways beyond their reach with most expensive weapons.

A simple reality check reveals that what i described above matches the empirical data you can gather every day ingame quite good - "hunting at your level" is, well, not completely pointless, as healing tool costs and armour decay are "lost" for the time being and cannot be recovered easily - if you are more skilled (mainly Evade, but being able to kill a mob more quickly plays a certain role, too), the percentage of armour/FAP decay decreases a lot, hence "eco" and "skills" do have a meaning, albeit not a significant one.

There'd be no withdrawing anymore (except from trading or from extreme luck), and we all would enjoy quite low costs of playing, at least over a certain span of time.

You appear to miss one thing entirely:
We've been only talking about TT here.

I.e. hardcore hunters gets lots of skills - skills are sellable goods as well
Miners andhunters can sell loot with a markup... (well, if you know the right mobs - just take a look at ET, the "usual suspects" (i.e. known resellers) hunt always the same mobs...)

If you loot 95% back of what you spend, and have an average markup of 125%, you reap in a profit of 18.75% on every hunt - if you play 8 hrs a day, that's quite some profit over time, profit you can withdraw

As we all know, it's not this way.
And so I doubt this theory, hoping that I finally understood it.

Well, everything i have experienced supports this theory, if you add "random giveaways to noobs to keep them (well, more like others witnessing it) going" we're set.

This makes a lot of sense, too, because the system i have described above does not involve luck...

Maybe try a simple reality check on the system how you see it:
It would immediately fail, because you think it is random.

Random = gambling - and we know it aint gambling.

 

[Xandra]

Hi,

first of all, again, thx for your detailed and educated posts!

Guess we're coming closer - seems both of you, Miles & Wzzszz, are claiming something I deny:

[...] a personal counter could be used as a means of triggering a bigger loots to offset losses, remove 'gambling', and stabilize the system [...]

and

Actually, i think there are at least two loot counter, one for recent expenses, which gets filled by ammo, amp & melee decay, bombs probes and so on... and a second, long term counter - that's where your FAP decay, armour decay, weapon decay goes.

This do both of you explain with the remark that EU would be gambling otherwise.
What is honorable & notable, I'm sure, but IMHO there's no proof for it.

What do we have? Some statements from MA, Marco & such, and we all know how to judge such. And a statement from the Swedish authorities that reads like "We checked quickly as you desired, but found nothing in the short of time we had, not even understood fully what this was. So "in dubio pro reo", maybe we'll check again later", at least for me.

And we have a MA, and current planet partners, that paradoxically seems to go long ways to ensure that as few public marketing as possible occurs, just as much as they cannot avoid. (*1) Do they do their best to stay below the radar of the gambling authorities of certain more aggressive countries, maybe?

We don't know if "EU = Gambling", or not, and maybe never will know.

But there's IMHO a few huge arguments against such a "personal loot counter":

1. Having such would create a major security hole for attacks from the inside.
   An employee (or a successful hacker) able to change a special avatars loot counter would be able to drain quite a lot of money from MA if made smart enough! The access to such data would need to be heavily restricted, monitored and controlled, and even such wouldn't be enough - no problem to slip in masses of small additional fictive decays, the changes in such a counter just cannot be really controlled in the range that MA operates - any change would have to be tested if there's a real action behind it, and such changes would come in in an overwhelming speed. Check my listing of decay a few posts before ...
   .
   [*]Having such would create a major security hole for exploits from the participants.
   Such a loot tracker would track TT, right? Now do any skilling that is pleasing you, adding up decay, record your losses, and as soon as you start to win (= your loot counter signals you'd deserve loot again) switch to the "High-MU" mobs. Get your HoF, sell, withdraw, rinse and repeat.
   .
2. Having such would create a major security hole for law suits.
   Because it wouldn't result in a system providing obvious "fair and equal" loot distribution (see #1 and #2) to all, but would open a hole to accusations like "MA deliberately screwed me to feed their friends" - guess you've read such already.
   To be able to counter such, MA would need to be able to prove all and any decay actions leading to the loot counter. And since these are legion MA just cannot afford to keep track of such. See #1.

A quite easy solution to these problems would be a fully randomized loot distribution, with a few screws to turn to be able to adjust.

The most important screw would be the actual account data of MA - this way never ever someone would loot more but what MA can spent.
Other screws would be areas, and/ or mobs, and/ or maturities - this way "MA events" (don't mix up with the new event types) like Atrox Queen might have worked. And the interviews with ND when he hit an ATH just when the camera was on ...

Provable randomized loot distribution would be just this much easier!

And we still have the skills, and the ability to chose what wheel to spin where, and with what gear - this should confuse any gambling authorities sufficiently.

A randomized loot distribution would be noticed as waves. Ask the players of "games of luck", there's a lot of literatical prove. And a randomized loot distribution would result in a certain return rate, regarding the screws you read of above.
Over a long time, and many, many tries, for sure.

Isn't this what we have?

I cannot prove my view sufficiently, and cannot sufficiently rebut yours. And I cannot accept any argument I read until now rebutting my view. I agree that we disagree, and I don't have a problem with it. I don't smash your theories, they might be right, and I might be wrong.
But atm I'm still quite sure I'm right ;-)))

Thx for the pleasant conversation, have a good time!


*1: MA & PP have avoided, until today, to get a bigger coverage in the game media. Getting such is not costly, usually you get this for booking an advert there, and asking for then.

 

[Miles]

I am not claiming any knowledge, and I am comfortable with not knowing. I was a blackjack dealer for 10 years , so believe me when I say I know about the ebbs and flows of random systems, even when some skill or user action is involved.

If EU is truly based on random returns, but gambling is avoided due player's skills, personal knowledge, and/or some other reason(s) - or not avoided but merely misunderstood by Swedish authorities - I don't really care quite honestly. I just don't think that it fully explains the way the loot system works.

My personal feeling is that, a) MA's loot algorithm (actually all algorithms) artificially increases the clustering of results. (In some ways this is more true with skill gains, misses, crits, etc.) and b) there is some sort of balancing mechanism that counteracts the simple cost to kill vs. loot dynamic. While eco hunting seems clearly superior in the short run, if it were that simple I think it would have been observed and proven conclusively so over the long run. To date, I don't think that has happened, and my personal experience has only re-enforced this feeling.

However, I don't know, and doubt I ever will - I was only suggesting a possible way that this could be achieved. Obviously the devil is in the details, which reside in black box, and I suspect that whatever I think, it is more like to wrong than right. It is the not knowing, the uncertainty, that makes this conversation interesting.

There are a couple of things I do believe quite strongly though - neither skills gains or depositing have anything to do with loot, and anyone who is absolutely certain how loot works is delusional.

My suggestion of a middle road, where both sides are sort of right, is something that has been kicking around in my head for a while because it would explain my observations and be inscrutable at the same time, but it is nothing more than that.

So carry on



Miles

 

[Xandra]

Hi,

first, thank you for this post. I'd +Rep 'ya if I didn't have to spread first ...

IWhile eco hunting seems clearly superior in the short run, if it were that simple I think it would have been observed and proven conclusively so over the long run.

Eco hunting is a hard game. Believe me, I'm doing this for ages now. Incredibly boring, and thus frustrating. You'll close to never get the swirleys, you'll loot useless stuff over and over. But it sells. Even for low gear often above the auction costs. And, in case of doubt, TT is your friend, always.

Eco hunting is in no way related to fun. It's a stupid, boring, tiresome grind, over and over. But it can pay. My TT value is slightly higher then what I deposited ever. And grinding Snables Guardian and up I quite often leave with a tiny profit.

How such would help to attract new players - well, I don't know.

Have fun!