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Ancient Greece Shares

doing some math... i love to crunch numbers .. maybe that is the reason for i do it for a living....
CLD average 8% payout
initial buyers at 10 ped receive less than 30 pec per year so compared to CLD the sahres of AG should be worth 3 to 3.5 ped
sotck market moes in expectations more than in actual numbers but that is the real part.
now let's think about the OWNERS of NI
they sold 50k usd shares, enough if you live in a 3rd world country to sustain a company, in europe it is a wage for one midlevel programmer or designer
moreover they offer to public 50% of revenues of ancient greece
so if the game is not tricked, the return on AG are 5% or less per years also for developers
and if i read the initial statement correctly 750.000 are the "notional USD value) of 50% of AG so we should calculate return on a "Notional" of 1.500.000 USD
well a 5...6% on that means that returns on AG are 90.000 USD per year for the developers.
i think that for such a "negligible" amount they are doing miracles in development
to the investors.... i jsut recall Maynard Keynes words "There is NO FREE LUNCH in the markets"
 
I've just been asked about current ROI, so your post coincides nicely. I've not checked exactly, but looking at returns of below 30 pecs per year (yes, it looks that way) means below 3% at both the original price and the current market price. Heck, that's low enough to make the purchase/sales fees significant...
As for development, the payback required is turnover on AG (and NI as the combined space that players can switch to and from easily).

For me, the 'right' sort of development is one that at least matches other planets overall for fun, craftable/lootable/upgradeable items, markets + mus, skill gains (character development) etc etc.
I still don't know how to get hold of stuff like boar tusks or charoite for crafting, and the wave problems mean that trying to maximise any mu on rarer stuff means MINIMISING your playing time EVEN IF you are the only player at all on a particular mob and you know what drops to 'expect'. How crazy is that?!!!

Yes, there is useful crafting loot that is not capped as harshly by the waves, but for those there is simply extremely low demand because unless you are an instance/gorgon player you may as well get the stuff yourself on the daily missions that have decent tt rewards (and sometimes mu) to lessen losses. Even the price of sweat at market stalls seems to be dropping slowly again. I imagine most of it is brought in from Caly, so even sweaters on NI find it hard to get a foothold on any kind of swunting ladder.

Improvements HAVE been made, but way more slowly than what is required to compete (at higher turnovers) with other planets in EU. The only stuff that would seem worthy of exporting is non-AG/NI-specific, apart from potentially a very low volume of clothing and maybe the occassional vehicle. I thus almost feel like a fool for continuing to stay with this existence - and I could certainly increase my turnover if it felt like investing in in-game goals was then faster too.
 
Speaking of NI potentials, i dont want to bash that planet, in fact it has extremely good ideas
1. as you die sweating you respawn in a "healing sweetspot" near the circle, free healing then
2. Waves are amazing for codex, the 5 minute cooldown is very good for farming meta rewards
3. very good 0.3 ratio for papoo as hp/level ratio (good for fast skilling, see OLEG g-sheet)
Oleg G-sheet of HP/Level ratio
(if the stalker papoo culling daily takes too long, bring them near zero with decent weapon, TT pistol only has to shot killing bullet , tested)
4. instead of the "CDF daily token" there is some OIL as a reward for mission, it is almost TT MU but is about 50% of decay used to do the daily, a nice bonus

those are the positive points, now the things i do not appreciate
a. it is a Tailor-oriented planet, tailoring is almsot useless for profiting from craft
b. too many crystals, the first time i visited NI i was amazed for teh absence of shrapnels an the loot composition. then i realized they were TTFood and that shrapnel is way better to recycle. removing 90% of crystals, using just say 8 different ones and loot shrapenels instead would have grinders more happy (and reise price for hte balance)

in a "quick tour of NI" a weekend allow to rise 25 codex on
boar, screecher, papoo and portal guardians, collect 30 meta and some reward, and see nice panoramas
longer visists include getting the "VIP status" chain, and farm robots daily for 39 ped reward

a NI-based life is most probably swunt for crafting elysia, do all the daily and 99% be near break even and skilling
i did not fight higher level monster due i was just passing by, but some NI gamer can go further of this initial impression
panoramas are very nice and at least for the initial 4 moonster, it is easy to resist and codex and reward are nice
 
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Msturlese said:
doing some math... i love to crunch numbers .. maybe that is the reason for i do it for a living....
CLD average 8% payout
initial buyers at 10 ped receive less than 30 pec per year so compared to CLD the sahres of AG should be worth 3 to 3.5 ped
sotck market moes in expectations more than in actual numbers but that is the real part.
now let's think about the OWNERS of NI
they sold 50k usd shares, enough if you live in a 3rd world country to sustain a company, in europe it is a wage for one midlevel programmer or designer
moreover they offer to public 50% of revenues of ancient greece
so if the game is not tricked, the return on AG are 5% or less per years also for developers
and if i read the initial statement correctly 750.000 are the "notional USD value) of 50% of AG so we should calculate return on a "Notional" of 1.500.000 USD
well a 5...6% on that means that returns on AG are 90.000 USD per year for the developers.
i think that for such a "negligible" amount they are doing miracles in development
to the investors.... i jsut recall Maynard Keynes words "There is NO FREE LUNCH in the markets"
Click to expand...
You can not sustain a company for 50k usd, where did you get that information from ? You think people work for peanuts everywhere else outside EU ?
 
suljie that is exactly my point. i believe EVERY country excluded some minority ones need more.
being the numbers calcualated on the declared parameters, either those are wrong or AG is in deep red
i accept all downvotes but not those given without understanding the arguments. peace.
 
Msturlese said:
Speaking of NI potentials, i dont want to bash that planet, in fact it has extremely good ideas
1. as you die sweating you respawn in a "healing sweetspot" near the circle, free healing then
2. Waves are amazing for codex, the 5 minute cooldown is very good for farming meta rewards
3. very good 0.3 ratio for papoo as hp/level ratio (good for fast skilling, see OLEG g-sheet)
Oleg G-sheet of HP/Level ratio
(if the stalker papoo culling daily takes too long, bring them near zero with decent weapon, TT pistol only has to shot killing bullet , tested)
4. instead of the "CDF daily token" there is some OIL as a reward for mission, it is almost TT MU but is about 50% of decay used to do the daily, a nice bonus

those are the positive points, now the things i do not appreciate
a. it is a Tailor-oriented planet, tailoring is almsot useless for profiting from craft
b. too many crystals, the first time i visited NI i was amazed for teh absence of shrapnels an the loot composition. then i realized they were TTFood and that shrapnel is way better to recycle. removing 90% of crystals, using just say 8 different ones and loot shrapenels instead would have grinders more happy (and reise price for hte balance)

in a "quick tour of NI" a weekend allow to rise 25 codex on
boar, screecher, papoo and portal guardians, collect 30 meta and some reward, and see nice panoramas
longer visists include getting the "VIP status" chain, and farm robots daily for 39 ped reward

a NI-based life is most probably swunt for crafting elysia, do all the daily and 99% be near break even and skilling
i did not fight higher level monster due i was just passing by, but some NI gamer can go further of this initial impression
panoramas are very nice and at least for the initial 4 moonster, it is easy to resist and codex and reward are nice
Click to expand...
Thanks for the detailed response. I have also mentioned the positives, which I appreciate. Yes to 1., they even added circles on the ground as a suggestion for where sweat groups can stand. 2. If you mean the downtime (cooldown) is only 5 mins for spawns, then yes, but yellow papoo, for example, has a spawn now so dense you can codex the papoos without any break at all if you wish (another positive). 3. Yes, you can speed the papoo stalker mission up by only using the tt pistol as a finisher. 4. In which mission do you believe the oil reward to be about 50% of costs? On my calcs the best of those dailies is grey papoo on 2.2 pecs tt oil reward for kill cost of about 22 peds, so about 10%, which should indeed bring break-even on that one and gives skills on top.

Yes, a quick tour can get you some great meta-codex level gains, just like on any of the codex planets. So, great for a visit, I've never questioned that I think, but longer term ... hmm? I decided to do the VIP slowly in accordance with my mining speed (you need to get the planet stuff and hit at least 3 peds each time, so I'm not quite there yet in my 'extra' time...). I dunno the cost of the robot kills in relation to the reward yet - I would estimate at least 600 peds, but I will find out soon. My experiences with the gorgon missions being watered down over time have also moved me away somewhat from trying to be fast, as it has proved to be pointless. The balancing was soooo bad - and I said so! Yes, things have improved, but I still haven't completed either the crafting for gorgon, nor the hunting chain...

Yes, I like the look of both NI and AG - always have done!

You mention too many crystal types and that it is a tailor-oriented planet. If clothing gets more upgrade paths for buffs, then that may turn into a bonus, but at the moment the only crafting I see as ok is dailies and as a necessity for some mission chains.
But yes, I thank you again for the positives here... :)
 
i expressed the concept is a bad way apologize.
the rewards as an example on screecher that is a 300 kill @ 270 average HP is about 7 ped
doing the daily at 3 dpp (standardized to make calc easuyer) means (300 * 270 /3/100) = 270 ped mission
at 95% expected return it is a 256.5 - 270 = 13.5 ped expected loss ( i suppose low level player with medium low gears and skills)
a 7 ped mission reward is roughly 50% of cost to kill
[EDITED IT IS 760 oil OR 15.20 ped, definitely at 95% of TT return is Free skills (in medium term of course)]
for a top tier player killing screecher daily it si almost sure over decay so it is indeed free skills
 
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I think what you are saying is: the reward is about half the normal loss on those good missions.
However, I don't appear to get 95% return, although I don't track on a per-mob-type basis but more broadly. I know how getting rare multis improves the long-term average, but I'm not at 3 dpp, nor high on looter skill.
Actually, the reward for screecher male is 760 oil, I believe, so 15.2 peds - and I think my turnover last time was about 300 peds speaking just for me (with about 270 back, so I actually have about your "half of loss returned" stats). The dailies are certainly doable, but not having a use or channel for most of the loot is a bit hmm for me (and I even have a shop that acts as a slow non-tt sales channel).
 
ooo i did nto realize the OIL was 2 pec. in that case the reward risk to make a breakeven for 96% TT return players.
definitely a good way for skill improvement i edit the previous post
 
jetsina said:
On the general mood - you apparently need to sign up to the NI forum now to even be able to READ the posts - pfft!
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jetsina said:
Possibly one of the innovative dailies that rewards finding fruit dung and stones has been nerfed by vastly reducing stone finds, but I'm just flagging this for info and maybe confirmation of low finds by others for now. As finds can be anything from 20-ish to maybe 130 or so, there already used to be variance in which requirement was the last to be filled, that's no problem, but now it seems the stones have gone awol.
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Fairness update:
The forum was readable to me as a non-sign-up again recently. If news etc is placed there by the NI team then it sure would make sense to keep readability open to anyone.
In the last week I've been finding stones again at a normalish rate, so maybe the period of really low finds I had was an outlier.
 
Sulje said:
You can not sustain a company for 50k usd, where did you get that information from ? You think people work for peanuts everywhere else outside EU ?
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Yes people work for peanuts in South-East Asia except Programmers. Look at ecommerce delivery boys. And for Ancient Greece deeds I will be better keep my money in Bank account rather than buy these deeds. People from Europe are addicted to gambling but I am not going to depo any money in this game.
 
Possibly squeezing in between migration and the expected gold rush, the Moloch Depths are seeing lots of globals coming out, so activity there must be quite high. The mission requirements to gain access are arguably on the high side (or not depending on the value of being inside), but it seems that more people have done the mission now and are spending time in the depths. The tracker activity for NI has shot up in the last few days, so maybe a new chapter in AG payouts - we shall see.
In other stuff, bps continue to be available that use specific mats that do NOT seem to be available, mostly NI armour and weaps. If these lines have been discontinued, PLEASE just say so, dear devs!
MUs are continuing to come down on pretty much everything specific to NI/AG and AH volumes are low too.
The pp vu didn't seem to contain much or even anything...
We'll see how the moloch activity develops I guess!
 
My guess is that molochs are an instance mobs. And do not count towards revenues. Kind of like the brood cave. There are sone heavy grinders in that instance, and no movement on the payouts.

i have no idea how this could be verified without official word, but to me it looks like they do not count towards payouts.
 
thee pepe said:
My guess is that molochs are an instance mobs. And do not count towards revenues. Kind of like the brood cave. There are sone heavy grinders in that instance, and no movement on the payouts.

i have no idea how this could be verified without official word, but to me it looks like they do not count towards payouts.
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According to NI moloch instance is counted in this and so, is the Gorgon waves. NI hasnt sold all the shares so, remember if they werent being calculated correctly it would affect NI the most out of everyone else since they get their numbers from MA etc.

Now the biggest problem here is #1 theres to many shares period... ><
since this new VU the booths they released when something is purchased now will go towards the shares since there are fees there.

If you've been to NI at all there isnt HUGE spending to accommodate the HUGE 750,000 shares >< but, maybe now with the shops there who knows maybe we will see an increase in dividends personally i dont see it likely.
 
Good to hear that the moloch is included in the shares. It’s very possible you are correct with the incredible amount of shares they chose to try and sell. I can tell you though there is a pretty good amount being cycled between moloch and gorgon.
 
SoberPhil said:
It looks like they decided to reduce the number of AG shares available for purchase by 350k. This should be good, but I don't think that the rest will be sold quickly, however, the appeal of these shares will increase.

https://forum.nextisland.com/t/announcement-ancient-greece-shares/566
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I think many are holding off purchasing until a large proportion of the IPO has been sold, as there is no chance of the share going up in value until this happens. going from ~650k shares to ~300k I think will push many of those holding off across the line. Especially as shareholders should expect a 40% or so increase in dividends. I certainly upped my stockholding.
 
It's an interesting move at the very least - thanks for the find and link.
I don't know enough about the moloch instance to be able to estimate future popularity. Right now/ recently it's a low number of players paying big attention to it.
While there is no price chance of the shares going up in value whilst the big block exists, the price if anyone wanted to sell was stable just below already anyway. This move makes it even more secure that people should be able to encounter little risk of a loss if they sell. That is different from other deeds with currently better payouts in that the prices of those could easily go down by 10% or whatever from where they are currently and more than knock out any positive from better payouts over a 1 yr period.
I will pay more attention to what payout averages we have in the autumn and winter seasons...

edited: price to chance
 
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theProphet said:
please don't hit me if i'm wrong, but wasn't it 50% for mindark, 25% for the PP you were born on, and 25% to the planet you play on?

oh and 50% of that, really? and not even the whole planet, just AG?

so, let's buy even less than 12.5% of the revenue for 750k$ then! :laugh:
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I have always been curious about how the revenue was split up.
 
Yeah lowerd to 400k but paymant will be the same for sure and Auds go to the sky
Ein Schelm wer böses dabei denkt.... cant say that in english feel free to see a manipulation......
 
Hero said:
Ein Schelm wer böses dabei denkt.... cant say that in english feel free to see a manipulation......
Click to expand...
Honi soit qui mal y pense.
Bitteschön!
 
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In terms of relevance to the thread, it has been my understanding that the German expression is used to mean the speaker doesn't believe something, even if the words themselves mean something like "shame on you for any negative thinking you might have on this".
The French is sometimes used (also in English) as a motto and means "shame on those who think badly of it" (there is also a typo I think - the word is 'mal'). Also, I believe the first word has changed from old French to modern, from honi to honni.
In plain English, but with irony, I can think of something like "who could possibly think anything negative about this?" Languages can be very subtle things ;), but the poster does say we should indeed feel free to think negatively.

Anyway, we should be able to see fairly quickly if the payouts almost double their recent averages or not as a straight fact. I imagine people will watch the number of shares left with interest, as for now it forms an upper boundary for the price, but won't once the block has been sold.

Several edits!
 
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Well ... no payout this week after the change to share numbers. Next time really has to pay out for things to look positive.
After a burst of sales the volumes are fairly low again, but nibbling at the 10s block.

Edit - additional - maybe people are indeed waiting for a visible improvement in payouts to an average of 1 pec a week. Even if 5k shares sell a week it will take a year for all to sell, yet the average sales could me much less than this rate even.

As a comparison to the other shares available in the same way via the share centre as opposed to on auction, the CP shares seem to be at maybe just under 2 pecs a week with a market price of about 18.5 peds. That's also running at about 5% payout pa, but with a less volatile history of action right after a couple of vus.
 
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Short update: payouts of 1 pec on 11th+18th - needs to hold steady. Sales of shares mostly a couple of medium-sized purchases - not a trickle any more, but also not a flood by any means. This could still take a while...
 
So by my calculations, which I am not a college professor by any stretch of the imagination, means on average 640k ped needs to get cycled a week for each share to get 1 pec.
 
Let's briefly look then. As maths teachers say: please show your working ;).
My quick estimate would be: half of planet revenue share is about 1/4 of 'revenue' - a problem word, never clarified, but it should mean before costs.
400k shares paying 1 pec to holders should equate to 4000 ped x4 revenue and be generated by about 40k x4 of player activity at 10% drain.

I thus get cycling of about 160k peds, which is neatly one quarter of your calc. Where is this other x4 effect you have in your calc?

(Edit: if Angela (post #270 below) uses 95% return, then the peds cycled would need to be doubled from my 90% assumption. That gives us 320k peds - our workings would only be a factor of 2 different - soberness on my side of things too ;) )
 
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jetsina said:
Let's briefly look then. As maths teachers say: please show your working ;).
My quick estimate would be: half of planet revenue share is about 1/4 of 'revenue' - a problem word, never clarified, but it should mean before costs.
400k shares paying 1 pec to holders should equate to 4000 ped x4 revenue and be generated by about 40k x4 of player activity at 10% drain.

I thus get cycling of about 160k peds, which is neatly one quarter of your calc. Where is this other x4 effect you have in your calc?
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The problem is that nobody could calculate these exactly, because officials doesn't reveal what actually counts as the revenue, or what's weekly revenue anyway,which is absurd considering they ask for investment.
 
jetsina said:
Let's briefly look then. As maths teachers say: please show your working ;).
My quick estimate would be: half of planet revenue share is about 1/4 of 'revenue' - a problem word, never clarified, but it should mean before costs.
400k shares paying 1 pec to holders should equate to 4000 ped x4 revenue and be generated by about 40k x4 of player activity at 10% drain.

I thus get cycling of about 160k peds, which is neatly one quarter of your calc. Where is this other x4 effect you have in your calc?
Click to expand...
I don't remember where I got that number, I was definitely 100% sober, but I think it came from using 95% tt return
 
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