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Loot pool explained-

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Gramuly

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Hegre Gramuly Hector
Ive read a few posts about casinos and lottery's. Most of the advanced players point out that its a complicated algorithm.

My question is how does it work.

Is the loot pool specific to my area, to my mob or just to me?

Ive read that each mob has a loot when it is generated and that an algorithm specific to me adds or takes from this mobs loot.

The reason I ask is: if I contribute to my own mobs loot I would like to know how.

Is it the amount of peds I spend in ammo and weapon decay.
What if I used the largest weapon to kill a little bird.
Each bird could cost me 10 or 15 ammo and the decay.
Would that help the loot the the bird drops for me?

Or let say I pizz off MA. Would/could they enter ## into my algorithm and I lose out??:scratch2:
 
The thing is we just assume there is a loot pool it hasnt been confirmed sooo..
 
I believe the game is pretty much like a slot machine with a guaranteed payout amount say 95% but you get all the payouts and others don't effect you nor can they take your loot from you.

But saying that your gonna have your highs and your lows you may loose alot at times, some phases just break even and occasionally a nice loot to restore your TT return %

Also that TT return percent can be effected by sloppy play. Armor and fap decay do not get added to your TT return in my opinion. The MU you pay to use items will not get returned to you in TT etc.

Im sure some will disagree with me but would be nice to hear several opinions.
 
There is no spoon...

I think a good part of the loot depends on your time in game and deposit/decay. Loot is generated when you kill a mob, the mob is not carrying any loot until you kill it, drop a bomb, or pull the lever on the crafting machine.

That is my personal non-scientific belief, I could be wrong, but I have stopped worrying about loot a long time ago.

Cheers :beerchug:
 
The only things we can know for sure are:

1) Loot cannot be 100% random, there must be boundaries and rules in place in order to keep control, else I'm sure by now at this point in the story of PE there would already have been a 100+ digits HoF (with consequences I guess dismiss any further explanations).

2) Output cannot be bigger than input. This might change if we ever got some serious real world advertizing in-game, but as long as the revenue comes solely from deposits and the interest they generate, that should remain like so.

3) According to statements from MA staff, which could already be outdated and no longer apply, for all we know, loot is calculated upon the act of looting, and weaponry used on the process of killing influences what loot you'll get. The "hows" and "whys" are unknown, as are more in-depth questions these statements may lead to on further analysis. Also all avatar's are supposedly treated equally in all aspects, including loot calculation.

4) Loot is calculated server-side and not client-side, as proved by the infamous "loot lags", and is also an obvious fact, since letting it be done client-side would be very prone to hacking/manipulating.


That's all the concrete fundamentals (except for maybe #3) all reasonable loot theories should be based on.
 
I am not sure, if each player has an individual loot pool. It would bind a lot loot to inactive players which would be bad for MA. if they make the loot pool totally random (with some general limits), they can take all the money they have in the pool and give it too all players that are playing.

A player with higher costs (ammo, decay and so on) has a higher chance for a higher loot.

Still it's only a chance... someone with a ton of luck can get high loot with low deposit and low costs, or even a non depositer takes high wins from time to time.


Just my guess after 5 years: no individual loot pools... but it's just me, still noobish and still only a guess.
 

dirty-pool.jpg


before and after shots maybye? :laugh: j/k ;)
 
where is my 40k+ loot if we get 95% return in the long run ??? :rolleyes:
 
It's my belief that people have their own personal loot pool, with some of the money from that pool going to fund the large uber loots out there. If you hit one of those it is possible to profit at the TT, but for the most part you will always come in under what you've put in...

As far as mob pools or location pools, I don't really believe it. Possibly for the big uber loots, there might be mob pools, but I don't think there's really any way to prove that. And it wouldn't really make any sense to design a system that rewards people more if they all do the exact same thing. Since MA's goal is to have a working virtual economy, it would make more sense if people were rewarded for trying to do things that not everyone else is doing to keep certain items in circulation.

So you might look at something like Atrox or OreAmps and say that those pay out more because lots of people are going after them. But it could just be that because lots of people are going after them, that's where the payouts are happening. The payouts could happen on anything else too with just as great of a chance of success...
 
No one anything for sure. That is the short answer to any question regarding loot.

Then there are some assumptions that I think is relatively safe to make. Ex. The more money is pumped in to a specific type of mob or BP, the better the potential for good loot is. We all see the trends and though I don't like it, I'm fairly certain that we can talk about a lootpool in that sense.

When it comes to mining, I really don't know. Could be area specific, but it's really hard to test for this theory.

There's also the concept of a personal lootpool, thus the more money I spend, the more money I get back. This I dare say for sure, is not the case, simply because of the immense amount of money I've pumped in the last 5 year and how little I've got back. If there is such a thing as a personal lootpool, either I'm the victim of some programming error or you can expect to see the largest ATH in history, that is, when it comes.
 
I like to believe that loot is location and time dependent, as for me that adds an extra dimension to the game. It adds to the possibility to influence the outcome. I'm pretty sure at least item drops follow certain patterns.
 
Imo, the system has several "layers" and values it uses.
All "layers" has to be at right place in the combination of all layers
to give us the perfect loot.
Most "layers" has a cycle with bad to good to bad influence.
Some "layers" are personal, while some are general.
Some layers are controlled by time and position.
Some values follows the general condition, so good times gives better
loot while bad times give a bit worse.
Probably a safetyperiod built in too, so if something goes terribly wrong,
the system isn't empty directly, meaning what we spend exactly now,
will influence loot some day or days later.
Too complex? Solution is called Dynamic coding... ;)
(Just some thoughts around the subject, not exactly my complete theory. :)
 
my estimate is 95% on perfect play with perfect eco. armor decay, less then perfect eco weapons, Mu on guns or ore amps all that is lost. 95% can easily fall to 80% in the long run with sloppy play.

Also the larger peak loots come every 300 or so globals hunting on avg, that is the 500 times or better loots. Or for smaller hunting crafting it think its ever 30-40K loots total.

out of those it think its 1 in every 3 or 4 thats more uber.

Count your globals and estimate how many more you need to hit 900-1200 total to get a good idea how much hunting you need to hit a nice uber.

Zorg said:
where is my 40k+ loot if we get 95% return in the long run ??? :rolleyes:
Click to expand...
 
Zacariaz said:
There's also the concept of a personal lootpool, thus the more money I spend, the more money I get back. This I dare say for sure, is not the case, simply because of the immense amount of money I've pumped in the last 5 year and how little I've got back. If there is such a thing as a personal lootpool, either I'm the victim of some programming error or you can expect to see the largest ATH in history, that is, when it comes.
Click to expand...

This is the same argument that most people use AGAINST loot being avatar based or having personal loot pools. That because of the IMMENSE amount of money lost into the system, there's no way that loot balances itself out. I think in most cases, people aren't really doing a great job of keeping track of where their money is going.

I like to use hunting with an Apis as an example since it's a pretty popular weapon. So you deposit 1500 ped to do some hunting. You buy a full Apis at around 150%. That's 100 ped in markup being paid out. Burning through the Apis then costs you 1064 ped. Total costs now 1164 ped. Let's assume you get nothing but "TT food" in your loot but you get a 90% TT return rate. Of course there are good and bad swings and this may not always be the case, but we'll assume it for this example. However the 90% is only on the TT spent, not the markup spent, so 90% of 1064 is about 958 ped.

So as it stands right now, we've spent 1164, got back 958, for a loss of 206 ped. Total balance at 1294.

Well we need to get back out and hunt. Can't want to wait for any of this "TT food" to sell on auction. So we dump it all in the TT and go buy another Apis, and get the same results. Total balance now at 1088. Well now we don't even have enough to buy the Apis and burn all the way through it, so at some point we will have to deposit again.

All this gives the impression that you're losing your ass to the system since you keep running out of money. Sure you're losing about 10% to MA, but where you're really losing in this example is in the markups. Paying too much money out in markup and not getting anything back in return.

For cold hard numbers, I'll point you to a project thread going on right now:

https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/hunting/171492-my-private-feff-war.html

At this point he's spent almost 18,000 ped and gotten a 97% return rate. He's including markup in that on items that he sells, but he's said that he doesn't sell the "tt food" items. I would think that extra 3% could easily be made up to help him break even, if he bothered to do it.

But looking at the the break down of his hunts, you can almost see a pattern to his gains and losses. I track my own spending too on a spreadsheet, and my gains and losses look very similar to that. I only recently started tracking my activity, so my numbers are slightly skewed based on my total play here, but right now my return based on pure TT values is about 98% after 2 months of play. However I only know that because I bothered to keep track.

Actually seeing the numbers only further reinforces my belief that loot is avatar based and that we have something along the lines of a personal loot pool.

(that was a little long winded, but hopefully it makes sense... :ahh:)
 
DoubleWolf said:
This is the same argument that most people use AGAINST loot being avatar based or having personal loot pools. That because of the IMMENSE amount of money lost into the system, there's no way that loot balances itself out. I think in most cases, people aren't really doing a great job of keeping track of where their money is going.

I like to use hunting with an Apis as an example since it's a pretty popular weapon. So you deposit 1500 ped to do some hunting. You buy a full Apis at around 150%. That's 100 ped in markup being paid out. Burning through the Apis then costs you 1064 ped. Total costs now 1164 ped. Let's assume you get nothing but "TT food" in your loot but you get a 90% TT return rate. Of course there are good and bad swings and this may not always be the case, but we'll assume it for this example. However the 90% is only on the TT spent, not the markup spent, so 90% of 1064 is about 958 ped.

So as it stands right now, we've spent 1164, got back 958, for a loss of 206 ped. Total balance at 1294.

Well we need to get back out and hunt. Can't want to wait for any of this "TT food" to sell on auction. So we dump it all in the TT and go buy another Apis, and get the same results. Total balance now at 1088. Well now we don't even have enough to buy the Apis and burn all the way through it, so at some point we will have to deposit again.

All this gives the impression that you're losing your ass to the system since you keep running out of money. Sure you're losing about 10% to MA, but where you're really losing in this example is in the markups. Paying too much money out in markup and not getting anything back in return.

For cold hard numbers, I'll point you to a project thread going on right now:

https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/hunting/171492-my-private-feff-war.html

At this point he's spent almost 18,000 ped and gotten a 97% return rate. He's including markup in that on items that he sells, but he's said that he doesn't sell the "tt food" items. I would think that extra 3% could easily be made up to help him break even, if he bothered to do it.

But looking at the the break down of his hunts, you can almost see a pattern to his gains and losses. I track my own spending too on a spreadsheet, and my gains and losses look very similar to that. I only recently started tracking my activity, so my numbers are slightly skewed based on my total play here, but right now my return based on pure TT values is about 98% after 2 months of play. However I only know that because I bothered to keep track.

Actually seeing the numbers only further reinforces my belief that loot is avatar based and that we have something along the lines of a personal loot pool.

(that was a little long winded, but hopefully it makes sense... :ahh:)
Click to expand...

I certainly understand the argument that people tend to Think they've lost more than they actually have, due to MU and stuff, which is also why I rarely involve MU in my calculations. However, if the MU is right, you can get the same eco with a (L) gun as with and UL and of course maxed, UL non SIB gun, which in turn makes it ok to include the MU. What really matter, in my opinion of course, is, in case of hunting, the cost per mob. But then there's other variable like armor decay, which is determined mainly by your evade level, fap decay, which is determined my what equipment, but also by what mob you're hunting and the amount of hps you've got.

In short, there so many variables that it's very hard to make a proper argument for or against anything, but I know how much money I need to spend per month if I want to play the amount of time I'd like to and hunt the creatures I'd like to and is fitting to my level and I know what I et in return. Thus, I'm very much convinced that there's no such thing as a personal lootpool.
 
DoubleWolf said:
but right now my return based on pure TT values is about 98% after 2 months of play.
Click to expand...

wait for several years of playing, then you will understand that we are clearly talking about tt losses, i evaluate about 40% tt losses wich i can cover with markup fortunatly but i dare not even think about other players who can't... and yes i m the kind of guy who try to sell everything from his loot and try to use the most eco gear
ofc the game treat you well at the begining ;)
 
This is exactly what my numbers on fefs show as well.

DoubleWolf said:
For cold hard numbers, I'll point you to a project thread going on right now:

https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/hunting/171492-my-private-feff-war.html

At this point he's spent almost 18,000 ped and gotten a 97% return rate. He's including markup in that on items that he sells, but he's said that he doesn't sell the "tt food" items. I would think that extra 3% could easily be made up to help him break even, if he bothered to do it.

But looking at the the break down of his hunts, you can almost see a pattern to his gains and losses. I track my own spending too on a spreadsheet, and my gains and losses look very similar to that. I only recently started tracking my activity, so my numbers are slightly skewed based on my total play here, but right now my return based on pure TT values is about 98% after 2 months of play. However I only know that because I bothered to keep track.

Actually seeing the numbers only further reinforces my belief that loot is avatar based and that we have something along the lines of a personal loot pool.

(that was a little long winded, but hopefully it makes sense... :ahh:)
Click to expand...
 
PopFuzz said:
This is exactly what my numbers on fefs show as well.
Click to expand...

yup and those numbers show that if you don't get that lucky uber hof, you are far from the 95% tt return. ;)
 
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Zorg said:
yup and those numbers show that if you don't get that lucky uber hof, you are far from the 95% tt return.
Click to expand...

Minus the 1k hof, he'd be at 88%. But if there is a system in place to return TT value spent, he would've gotten that hof at some point in there anyways just based on how much he was spending, or it would've come in the form of many smaller profitable hunts.

Seeing numbers like this definitely make a strong case for the personal loot pool theory. Of course it can't really be proven one way or another. Only people that TRULY know how it works is MA and they'll never give that info up...
 
A personal loot pool is all nice but I never seen it put it to the test, while this is very easy to do. It may turn out to be an expensive test though in case its not true, I guess thats why its never tested.
 
DoubleWolf said:
Minus the 1k hof, he'd be at 88%. But if there is a system in place to return TT value spent, he would've gotten that hof at some point in there anyways just based on how much he was spending, or it would've come in the form of many smaller profitable hunts.

Seeing numbers like this definitely make a strong case for the personal loot pool theory. Of course it can't really be proven one way or another. Only people that TRULY know how it works is MA and they'll never give that info up...
Click to expand...

it doesn't really, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

Especially:

The LLN is important because it "guarantees" stable long-term results for random events. For example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcome by the parameters of the game.
Click to expand...
 
Witte said:
it doesn't really, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers
Click to expand...

That's kind of what I'm getting at there. In the short term, there may be many large up and down swings, but in the long term, the loot seems to average out to a particular percentage. If you have a large enough ped card, you can cycle a lot of peds to realize whatever that percentage is on each cycle.

I'm curious as to how you would go about testing this theory. I remember some experiment that was performed awhile back that was something along the lines of shooting 100 mobs and not looting them and then shooting 100 and looting them to see if the ones looted provided better than normal returns. The conclusion was that it didn't.

My only explanation to that (if avatar based loot exists) would be that perhaps on looting the mob it gives you a ticket. After so many "no loot" tickets, the system will kick out a better than average loot to adjust for the losses. But if the mob is not looted, it is not counted. This could explain why hunting very efficiently works better than using uneconomical gear. Wasteful spending doesn't get accounted for. Only that spending that was needed to generate the loot opportunity and you acknowledge that money spent by looting the mob. It's also just a theory though...

But I'm curious if there would be some other way to test this...
 
PopFuzz said:
my estimate is 95% on perfect play with perfect eco. armor decay, less then perfect eco weapons, Mu on guns or ore amps all that is lost. 95% can easily fall to 80% in the long run with sloppy play.

Also the larger peak loots come every 300 or so globals hunting on avg, that is the 500 times or better loots. Or for smaller hunting crafting it think its ever 30-40K loots total.

out of those it think its 1 in every 3 or 4 thats more uber.

Count your globals and estimate how many more you need to hit 900-1200 total to get a good idea how much hunting you need to hit a nice uber.
Click to expand...

i very much doubt it works that way,last month ive been fairly inactive but the year before that i had an average of 10-20 globals per day
so every month orso i should have ubered you state...while i think i have had 3 ubers in maybe 3-4 years(im level 77 blpsniper natural and ive had maybe 5 1k+ huntingloots since i started playing)

1 uber of 9k,rest around 2k i think
and that is just when i hunt solo,i team a lot with my wife and same story,lots of globals but no hofs

i checked tracker couple months ago and i had lowest average pedamount per global of all hunters in top100
im convinced loot is not avatarbased regarding output

+ if there is such an thing as an personal lootpool and you get % back of ammo/gun/melee decay spent wat would be the point of ecoweaponry ?
if i would hunt with maddox or impmk2..the outcome would be the same(barring less decay armour/fap cause more range/dam of impmk2)
 
Zorg said:
where is my 40k+ loot if we get 95% return in the long run ??? :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

...yeah and where is my 200k+??

And i don't lose any peds in markup since i play with MKVME (lvl 80/75) and keeps getting 60%ish return month after month, im down 19k peds this month, a little more than usual since i really wanted to loot an SGA item - i didn't get any however (big surprise lol) .. 10-15k ped loss per month is my regular with that gear, that is no 90-95% return there..

When i log off for the day i usually do some calculations and "evaluate" the day and most of the time the tt return lands between 50 and 70%.
Most of my 500 ped ammo hunts ends without globals and not rarely also without any "minis" and when i've had 4-5 of those trips i usually get 2-3 globals in one trip and then it starts over.
And everyone who has hunted mobs that are bigger than
snablesnots knows that without minis, esi's or globals you are bound to get like 50-60% tt return at best.

(Before i had my mkvme i was hunting mainly with korss 400 and P5, the return was NOT any better.)

However, my GF is playing this game also, and she get's tt return like the one you are talking about, 90-95% (she has never deposited btw), and with tt return like that it is really easy to profit.
 
fluske said:
+ if there is such an thing as an personal lootpool and you get % back of ammo/gun/melee decay spent wat would be the point of ecoweaponry ?
if i would hunt with maddox or impmk2..the outcome would be the same(barring less decay armour/fap cause more range/dam of impmk2)
Click to expand...

That kind of goes back to what I mentioned about wasteful spending. I tend to believe that MA has determined what it should cost to kill each mob. The average loots almost seem to reflect this. If you are hunting as efficiently as possible, the typical loot that comes back seems to be right around the cost to kill that mob. So the closer you can get to that cost (no armor, no fap, no overkill, eco weapons) the better your returns are going to be overall. It kind of seems this way with crafting as well, where the average success seems to be right around the cost of the TT value of the click. In both cases, some times it's more, some times it's less, but on average, it's about the same cost.

This is just a guess (and I invite you to try it :)) that you can take any mob out there, divide it's health by 3 and that will be the average size of the typical loot from that mob (in pec). Could explain why people say a MM is profit machine since you're able to come in at over 3 dmg/pec, even more amped.
 
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