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Significant drop in success rate

Nearly back to July's Success Rate of roughly 34%

Just did 3 runs with 1k clicks of Basic Sheet Metal on full quantity with a CoS of 90%. Got 32.1, 31.4 and 32.2 percent Successes. (1)

This is much better than a few days ago, but not as good as 1 months ago, where I did runs with the same setupt and got 34.8, 33.7, 34.2, 33.6 and 35.2 percent Successes. (2)

I've not seen a significant change in tt-return during the last two month.

from (2) to (1), I've noticed two new peaks in the loot-distribution at ~27% and 42% tt-return/click that make up 9% of all clicks. At the same time, there is no more loot betwee 47% and 60% tt-return/click. This is a significant change, that only can be explained by a change in the loot-distribution-function and not by "MA's dynamic" itself.

Taking into account, that we only get a Success if the tt-return/click is >= 100%, it's no wonder that the Success Rate has changed with recent modifications to the loot-distribution-function.
 
yep, it's back to what it was when we first started grumbling about it. Whoopidoo.
Just as if MA were saying "Complain will you? We'll give you something to really complain about if you don't shut up"

On a side note: you notice they broke Space again yesterday? A sure sign that they're fixing (or adjusting) something else. Now we know what.

jay :)
 
More like "holy crap nobody is gambling" put it back the way it was before the taxes come due on this castle!
 
it's probably why success rate fell cause of Cond crafting.

which the situation of low success rate should force people to cond craft more
remember we are all in this together :)

ripples from every action
 
jaywalker said:
On a side note: you notice they broke Space again yesterday? A sure sign that they're fixing (or adjusting) something else. Now we know what.
Click to expand...

For sure they did - at least for hunting. I could see bigger HOFS on other players (well, bigger that the usual 60ped "hof") and sure enough I went and had the best two runs on the mobs I was hunting. Too bad I was too sleepy to keep it up.

New loot theory: besides the "normal" loot mechanism (you shoot they give you back some), there is THE BUTTON. If MA turn this button the right way, is good for us, if they turn it to the wrong (well... left), is good for them. Nothing to do with eco and skill :)
 
Here are my results from a few minutes ago from a long run I did on WW (I've got like almost 100 clicks left but ran out of lyst :( )

cos.jpg
 
Todays minimal efforts - average - 26.8%

BP Clicks returned success%

Tension Straps (plsr plate 9) 2 0 0.0% rare parts mu parts
Pulsar Armour Plate 9 (L) 5 2 40.0% rare parts mu parts
Pulsar Armour Plate 8 (L) 7 1 14.3% rare parts mu parts
Pulsar Armour Plate 4 (L) 9 2 22.2% rare parts mu parts
Hotfoot 30 (L) 7 1 14.3% rare parts mu parts
Stimulation Modulator 50 29 42.0% mu parts
Insulators 200 229 27.5%
Weapon Damage Enhancer III 13 3 23.1% rare parts (output amps gone on ark) mu parts
Weapon Damage Enhancer I 11 3 27.3% rare parts mu parts
Weapon Damage Enhancer I 11 3 27.3% rare parts mu parts
Weapon Damage Enhancer II 7 4 57.1% rare parts mu parts
 
~1 pass, 10k clicks basic bearings qr 100 = 32% success rate according to the stat box. had about 4k clicks worth of returned mats to run tonight :yay:
 
Still being told nothing changed with crafting from support on all planets.

As gathered by Entropia Life ....

Weekly Crafting Stats
Total value 782 946 PED (-18.80 %)
Weekly Globals 4 811 (-5.70 %)


Just sayin' ....
 
ok for all those NEW People in this game.......... or maybe old people and never crafted.....

but 30% is was and always has been the AVG success rate
 
Strash said:
ok for all those NEW People in this game.......... or maybe old people and never crafted.....

but 30% is was and always has been the AVG success rate
Click to expand...

So the success rate stipulated on the BP is bullshit then? :scratch2:
 
Strash said:
ok for all those NEW People in this game.......... or maybe old people and never crafted.....

but 30% is was and always has been the AVG success rate
Click to expand...

Not always, see Etopia's thread on crafting COS (https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/showthread.php?21165-Real-crafting-COS)
Note that the first post in 2006 shows avg COS as 42%.
In about 2009, after the introduction of SIB bps, Etopia reported that non-SIB 100QR maxed bp's still had about 42% COS, with SIB bps showing a slightly lower %.
 
Yeah I agree with Serica...

There was a post on this forum category (too lazy to find it) that had someone asking what bp qr meant in relation to actual success rate, and people in the thread reported 70% CoS.

I, myself, last Fall, when crafting on quantity, experienced a 40-50% success rate (sometimes it even reached 60).

30% is kinda low imho.
 
Well until the recent issues I have been planning my crafting on the basis of approx 3 clicks per success and that was working pretty well for me. But hey, I'm happy for it to go higher. Don't stop on my account.
 
I have always basically used 40% as my real expectation of COS, which is an average of 2 successes in 5 clicks. I would mostly do runs with mini-chapters of 100 clicks in a 500-clicker overall and see how the runs varied around that percentage.
Actual returns would obviously be affected by getting multiplier successes, but I took COS as a pretty reliable indicator of good runs and bad runs - to work out what mus I should ideally be trying to get on my sales.

I eagerly await an explanation by MA on their kick in the COS and how they plan to do things in future.....
 
Keep in mind that COS (chance of success) or "success rate" depends on the blueprint you're using, it's QR and your skills. In the past, though, the "average" success rate of a typical maxed, QR 100 bp was 42% going back before my time. In january or february this year, presumably as part of the TEN modified loot, the COS went to 50% for a while. Then it moved down to 35, then down to 22, now it's back up at 33% as of two days ago. 22% is definitely too low, 33% I think is acceptable for most items (or at least it is close to the item MUs and ore consumption levels that we've gotten used to). I think every change in success rate MUST be officially announced... as has been shown over the last two weeks, the crafters are the foundation of the entire economy.
 
Strash said:
ok for all those NEW People in this game.......... or maybe old people and never crafted.....

but 30% is was and always has been the AVG success rate
Click to expand...

When you maxed a BP it used to be around 40 %.
 
look at my tracker i think i have crafted enough to know that it is always has been 1/3 success
i always calculated my runs according to 30% success rate..... 40% would be nice but those were rare
 
SO anyone tested COS yet? is there any difference after Bertha's announcement?

Bertha Bot said:
[h=3]Developer Notes #7[/h] Manufacturing Returns and Success Rates
Several participants have recently expressed concern over manufacturing success rates in support cases and on various community forums. Our design team has investigated these issues and has determined that the manufacturing system is functioning as intended. Please keep in mind that many aspects of the Entropia Universe system are dynamic and that drawing conclusions about "success rates" or "TT return" based on relatively small sample sizes collected over short time periods can be very misleading or unnecessarily alarming.

Once again, we would like to assure all participants that the manufacturing system is functioning properly and as designed.
Click to expand...
 
Was slightly bad yesterday (<3% on condition)
 
Strash said:
look at my tracker i think i have crafted enough to know that it is always has been 1/3 success
Click to expand...
So when MA states in the UI you have a 70%, or 90% "SUCCESS RATE", that's a plain lie? (I know the answer, but I want your input here)

Rephrased: Is it OK for the company (MindArk) to state as a fact you will have e.g. 70% or 90% "SUCCESS RATE", when it is KNOW the actual "SUCCESS RATE" is more like 30%?

In my book, anything like that is fraud.
 
bettlejus said:
SO anyone tested COS yet? is there any difference after Bertha's announcement?
Click to expand...

did 1.5k run on quantity..around 30% success...

did 2k run on cond, around 3.3% success...

both on maxed bps
 
todays runs only did 2 tries for enhancers i need

Weapon Damage Enhancer III 9 clicks 1 enhancer- 11.1%
Weapon Damage Enhancer I 27 clicks 5 enhancers- 18.5%

Below is a response I had to the arkadian team support reply. I will say I appreciate that arkadian support actually replies every time, I have not heard from calypso team anything in 3 months over several cases.

the reply:
Looking at another 18% success run as I got the reply. I appreciate the reply, it hurts you far more than it does me.

here is an example on how arkadia is affected. I am one of the only pulsar plate manufaturers. here are some of my results from the past month:
Pulsar Armour Plate 9 (L) 10 clicks - 2 plates back - 20%
Pulsar Armour Plate 8 (L) 64 clicks - 10 plates back -16%
Pulsar Armour Plate 4 (L) 9 clicks - 2 plates back - 22%
Pulsar Armour Plate 2 (L) 17 - 7 plates back - 40%

Tell me why I should spend a ped on any part from arkadia with results like that, (this is just armor plates) and how anyone will be getting arkadian parts out in regular supply?

I was considering a shop upgrade, but now I will be selling the shop. I cannot craft the goods here with any success. If I cannot craft without loss I cannot continue to sell.

Shame I have been playing since 2006, probably understand the game better than most employees, and the company wont take the warning signs that many experienced players give them that something is wrong.

The arkadian economy already is weak, this only makes it 10 times as hard for your company to thrive and obtain more business.

Good luck, again these BPs will not be sold, but kept in protest.
 
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forgo said:
here is an example on how arkadia is affected. I am one of the only pulsar plate manufaturers. here are some of my results from the past month:
Pulsar Armour Plate 9 (L) 10 clicks - 2 plates back - 20%
Pulsar Armour Plate 8 (L) 64 clicks - 10 plates back -16%
Pulsar Armour Plate 4 (L) 9 clicks - 2 plates back - 22%
Pulsar Armour Plate 2 (L) 17 - 7 plates back - 40%

Tell me why I should spend a ped on any part from arkadia with results like that, (this is just armor plates) and how anyone will be getting arkadian parts out in regular supply?

I was considering a shop upgrade, but now I will be selling the shop. I cannot craft the goods here with any success. If I cannot craft without loss I cannot continue to sell.
Click to expand...

The only one of those Pulsar craft runs that is significant is the 64 clicks of P8. The others being such short runs are only one success away from 33% success rate which is the figure I used to budget around.

I agree that crafting has been tough lately and have had similar results with my plates and guns but I'm still managing to come out ahead though at significantly reduced profit margin and sales turnover is down by around 50% this month also so there seems to be flow on impact to hunting activity. Nevertheless, I'm going to keep plugging away. It's harder to meet business objectives at the moment but it's still doable.

Sorry to see you are planning to sell your shop. I hope you will reconsider as I would rather have the competition and the increased demand for hunting and mining loot.

Get yer Pulsar plates from KikkiJikki Defense, Celeste North Shop 5, Arkadia.

Forgo if you want to offload that P9 bp give me a call and perhaps we can work something out.

Regards,
KikkiJikki
 
Disappointed that the answer was "working as attended", because the success rate are just too low when we get that many under 30 % success rate.
 
Did a 1000-click testrun on a maxed out BP (basic wires) and got a 92% tt-return.

Shame it's just too small a sample to draw any conclusions from ;D
 
Damn, sort the shit in your heads - where is the TT return, where is CoS, and where is _normal_ runs more than 1k clicks.

Thx.
 
Wollongong said:
Did a 1000-click testrun on a maxed out BP (basic wires) and got a 92% tt-return.

Shame it's just too small a sample to draw any conclusions from ;D
Click to expand...

Not sure if you mean that ironically or not....
But anyway, there is a huge difference in a sample size of 1000 clicks between looking at tt return and success %.
As you can get a nice multiplier loot at any time, any run can be favourably skewed by such a hit. Bread-and-butter successes, however, will be highly likely to show you what is happening if you go through 1000 clicks.

Those percentages really nose-dived. I don't believe an algorithm generated them either. Bad programming of semi-random swings would be a possible algorithm, but I think things have been manually adjusted, as I assume was the case for the TEN starter period.

"Working as intended" is maybe an accurate description, but intending to severely piss people off to maybe see by exactly how much they get pissed off is just crazy in my opinion.
I also think that any changes should be made publically. No faith in the system = no crafting!
 
The issue was NOT the tt% returns..... that seemed well within normal variances..... the issue was the % returned of the END product... or the item you were trying to make anyway.
 
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