And there I was thinking that discussion of religion and politics was not allowed on PCF...
Still don't get why some are saying that without a personal loot pool you can't have a spike of good loot after poor loot, all that takes is a cyclic function around some mean. If you want to capture a short-term inefficiency to soften the landing for idiots and sleep-hunters
, you can track a short-term efficiency and include it in the function somewhere.
I've long assumed that hunting loot return averages out to some value near the 3 dmg/pec range, which has obviously been adjusted up as the overall economy of weapons used has increased (everyone is now on maxed SIBs). So let's say that average has been reduced to around 0.32 pec / hp today (making 3.125 dmg/pec the magical "break even" economy). That gives your average hunter, if your average hunter hunts at what seems like a reasonable level of 2.85 dmg/pec effective economy, a return of
91% over a very long time (remember that the data DOES show the loot to be long-tailed, whatever else may be at dispute here).
Assume a function like the one i describe above that cycles around a 0.32 pec/hp average. At a shorter time for most people, return could come out as 90%, and if you look at a short segment you could get even 50% or 150% over a few hunts, even with this same "reasonable economy".
Now, maybe that function's average value is actually a bit lower 0.31pec / hp, which might be more accurate. That would make 3.2 dmg/pec the break-even number, something unattainable by most everyone. This would give the 2.85 average Joe an
88% return.
You don't need to posit a "personal loot pool" to see most people getting around
90% return. That doesn't make it a magic number, though. There have been long-term logs showing returns nearer 100% (one that MrProper about crapped his pants at as I recall). That was from an imk2, not surprisingly.
Anyway, I mostly wanted to repeat what I said on page 14: you don't need a loot pool to get boom/bust cycles on an avatar.