How I think loot works

[Coop_]

If those two weeks were after the missions were introduced (especially after the reward for 10k mobs was discovered) your results were only based on high activity, as the argos have had inordinately high activity ever since, on a nearly round the clock basis. I have found only a couple times of day where this has not been the case.

Was all before the missions. After the missions it seemed pretty much the same, though I didn't keep actual track.

 

[sledgehammer]

Can you clearify how you got this information and by who?

It was told to me by FPC Pioneer in Twin Peaks on April 27, 2010. I do not have a screenshot, but I will paste from my chat log.

(My question) 2010-04-27 12:32:34 [Local] FPC, how about the no-loot system going away? Marco promised that to us, and I see more no-looters than ever.

(FPC Pioneer's response) 2010-04-27 12:34:52 [Local] Sledge, the no-loot stuff became a database performance issue, so it couldn't be implemented as we wanted it.

 

[kingjehu]

Interesting...

To me this falls under the things we can observe but not prove part of loot distribution.

Theroy:
The amount of people looting during a specific time has some effect on loot.

You are suggesting that this is a result of server load and the inability of the server to assign more then a certain number of loots in any given instance.
(which seems like a valid theroy)


I think there are some things about loot distribution that are fact...

People like to pick on Legion, but there are some obvious facts... for example.

Loot is not entirley avatar or cost/loot specific:
FACT
The more an item is hunted/crafted the more potential there is for a 'max' loot. There is a certain amount of loot that can be recieved as a result of other avatars losses on that specific mob/crafted item.

This can easily be observed by looking at tracker statistics for mobs or crafted items... Crafted item are most easily compared because cost per click is constant whereas cost to kill any given mob can vary somewhat.
Given two craftable items that have the same cost per click, the one that is clicked more often will have the highest max loot.
For example compare one of the simple I items to something of a comparable cost per click but much less popular. You will see the max loot for the simple I will be exponentially higher. Loot must therefore be at least in part specifically tied to the item looted or you would see the same maximums for similar cost/loots.


well that sounded smart to me.. but I'm sure a half a dozen EF know-it-alls will now reply about how it is absurdly wrong...



JEHU

 

[Legion]

People like to pick on Legion, but there are some obvious facts... for example.

hmm i havent noticed, but thanks for pointing it out to me

 

[Spawn]

You believe, you don't know. I know English isn't your first language, but how many times do you need to be reminded? Believe means you think you know (which is what you do) know means you know, for a fact (those things you aren't so good at dealing with, capiche?).
believe
know

What you know is based on knowledge of the old planet.
what you know to be true about the old planet is what people have agreed to be true in conventions, laid down in language.
You know that the sky is blue, yet if another tribe seperated from the rest calls the sky orange... then it could also be orange.

we are not on the old planet.
this means whatever was true on the old planet does not necessarily be true on calypso.
you know vehicles cannot pass through humans and leave them unharmed. Yet you see it on calypso every day
you know you cannot jump of a 2000 m cliff and land on solid ground and live, but you see it on calypso every day

what you know is what people in togetherness believe to be true.
if we all believe in legion's theory, then that belief become what we know

for centuries people knew the earth was flat. nowadays we believe it's round or slightly oval shaped.

capiche?

 

[Amenophis]

So far, nothing new. We have seen several server behavioral patterns in various situations. During events or prolonged hunting campaigns, the server distributes high loots far more often in the event areas and on the camped mobs, while other activities seem to be somehow drained of return from within their lootpools. Each volume of global activity generates a cycle of loot with its length being proportional to the volume of input in the according activity.
Despite of this phenomenon, players continue to encourage the "casino" behavior of the loot servers during these situations, part cause of the global list bust mostly out of greed and desperation.
This is not a theory on loot ... this is a try to explain loot accumulations . The measure it affects distribution is of less concern and distribution is what hurts the most.
I see this distribution to go something like the highest placed avatar getting the highest surplus available. Several of the possible distribution principles could be :
I. avatar based
1) given x hunters in the designated area and during the same designated cycle : you got a 50% chance to get a break-even situation assuming 50% of the hunters are loosing and 50% are gaining some of the loss of the others.
Percents vary though cause of personal curves of the hunters involved. Mostly cause of the great accumulation of mid range players and the decrease in low range ones , the distributed loot grew in the high middle - upper levels while the low-middle sections of the distribution graph accuses lower returns on daily basis. It's not the loot that got worse, but its average value , and only because it gets split amongst more.
I believe that the highest the skill points of an avatar, the more that avatar will "claim" from the lootpool when interacting with others while being on a positive curve.
2) the uber dooper noober with big mofo dildo gun has more shots at hitting big cause his avatar curve has much more positive "slopes" than that of a medium/high skilled player. However, his curve evolution is not that continuous for the same reasons.
II.
1) normal loot is being distributed from the same input server
2) uber/ath loot is being redistributed from all planet's servers. Only 1 bucket with several holes
3) server cycles are spread among all possible sources of income ( flow generating activities ) and their periodicity is determined by the activity volume of a server

 

[Starkiller]

But it must have a interesting way to be programed.

The most interesting programs are the simpler ones, and I think that what sledge is saying would be the dirt cheap solution to server data flow control, btw Immortal, I think you got a bit confused while reading what he wrote, or maybe i did too and did not see the contradiction, but I think sledge means that on low activity, there are less globals, but less no loots, on high activity times, for the server to unload calculations, it awards more globals and more no loots.

It makes sense to me, but what Immortal also wrote makes sense. In any case, if you consider how MA has been working for the past.... well, since ever, you know, aswell as I do, that the solution that sledge just posted would be, and again, its my opinion, the course of action to go.

Do not forget they balance player needs, investor needs, aswell as other parties involved, therefore, if they can take more revenue from something that is their own fault, and nobody acknowledges it, either due to lack of experience with such things (which is only natural, not everybody knows how informatics work to a certain depth) or simple ignorance (read "not caring about it") they'll just keep getting more and more revenue, while maintaining the servers stable (barely, might i add ) and since revenues increase, stockholders and investors will be satisfied.

If it were me, I would do it just as sledge explained: Server is laggy? Ill reduce the load with a no loot feature, in which if the package is lost abound, when the client asks for info again, it brings out an "error" message *grins and cackles*

It kinda sounds a bit selfish and reckles in my honest opinion, but im not a professional programmer, therefore I do not need the same ethics as MA staff would require (which by the way, they seem to lack a lot).

But, its fucking MindArk, what did you expect? Its been more than 7 years since release guys, you either take a hint and continue playing or take a hint and get the fuck out If you say the loot system is unfair, and that you want to crack it, either for the fun of it or to not lose so much, it doesn't really matter, because in the mean time, you're spending money to do such things, otherwise you have to resort to second parties to do the spending for you, nonetheless the house still wins.

Then again, there are players here that have been playing since before release, so that tells you that theyre either filthy rich or that the loot distribution might not be as unfair as most think. But since MA isn't transparent about most things, because they're afraid they might get their system cracked (either due to being too "fragile"(read simple, as i stated before) or because it's simply rubbish and full of patches and mendings, afraid that programmers would find big breaches in security and yada yada yada) and thus lose stockholders, investors, and ultimately players, we can only assume things work a certain way, and without any sort of information from their end, variables used could be hair colour, height, dick size, weapon used, feet armor decay and if you have a pet or not, it could even be the number of players in the area count, or in twin peaks at certain times of the day. Who knows? I sure as hell dont, and neither does any of you, no matter what you tell me, you do not know. You simply cannot say which, because they are way too many, and none of them have been disclosed by the designing and programming staff. If Im wrong about the variable bit, ill gladly swallow my pride a bit, but im not an information monster when regarding games, specially this one.

Of course, im being a bit extremist with the variables. Maybe. But polite guesses that the variables used are ammo type, weapon used, armor used, decay spent are just as farfetched from a programmers point of view, although, as stated, more polite and dedicated guesses of course

If MA wont become more transparent, if they can overcome the issues i stated above, then its anybodies guess... If you know how it works, you hit the jackpot, for real. Don't try to play the actual game called jackpot because your ticket was up already.

Also, If you know how it works, why state it on a forum that is read by almost every single player in the game? (Not directed at you sledge, and definitly not directed as an offense to anyone might I add, just a fact) Want it to go out of business and lose your cash cow? Bad entrepreneurial skills right there Oh but maybe you want to be renowned? Either way, you're once again hanging yourself by the neck, they'll just monitor your activities and if they can't (because you think youre a smart ass and decide to play on another character) they'll just make the variables change for a couple weeks or months, loot will change, people rant about it, a couple quit, you lose all your credit for cracking it, be called a charlaton, and MA has a big grin on their faces at the extra revenue nobody seemed to care about, due to the non transparency, oh, and at your futile attempt to succeed, then change their variables back, or not, and move on to the next guy that cracks it

In conclusion, one can only guess, for all I care right now, we could have a monkey with a number pad stuck to a pc clicking numbers all day, and thats your loot calculator But sledgehammer's post did make me realize something i didnt even consider at all thank you for that. And plus rep for everybodeh! At least to those efforting

P.S.: fuck me for using so many 's :O

 

[Starfinder]

If you wanted to ask Starfinder nicely, I am sure he can provide you with statistics for event mobs, merry mayhem etc - this will show there is no verifiable limit to the number of globals (and thus loots) per hour.

I sometimes "EF search" my self... So here goes:

The following are based on numbers from 1/1-2010 and upto now()...
The last column is hour stamp. 0 = 0-1 AM.. 1 = 1-2 AM.. and so on..

OVERALL
Globals	Turnover	Players	Avg. value
12192	1865881		3217	153	0
10184	1431689		2727	140	1
9155	1243920		2387	135	2
7967	1182344		2041	148	3
7643	1281314		1899	167	4
7602	1110541		1910	146	5
8034	1136232		2005	141	6
9186	1252894		2243	136	7
10414	1357554		2460	130	8
11552	1462666		2711	126	9
12439	1636773		2881	131	10
13411	1733142		3153	129	11
13977	1859378		3241	133	12
14329	1862260		3357	129	13
14983	2095402		3517	139	14
16987	2188984		3798	128	15
18228	2470090		3920	135	16
20178	2587834		4197	128	17
22891	3206817		4491	140	18
25435	3420242		4917	134	19
25646	3469406		5060	135	20
23108	3126649		4828	135	21
18854	2585684		4313	137	22
15027	2049782		3703	136	23

ATROX
Globals	Turnover	Players	Avg. value
2314	255374		981	110	0
1844	201997		804	109	1
1664	180053		754	108	2
1514	191213		692	126	3
1453	181810		640	125	4
1470	161612		647	109	5
1494	202018		682	135	6
1708	201489		764	117	7
1887	195487		817	103	8
2195	250564		878	114	9
2410	290213		1012	120	10
2454	249539		1016	101	11
2570	279187		1050	108	12
2675	269134		1077	100	13
2860	345496		1169	120	14
3337	368658		1283	110	15
3555	406587		1352	114	16
3859	438544		1412	113	17
4290	555607		1481	129	18
4924	576493		1644	117	19
5407	615320		1735	113	20
5434	667177		1696	122	21
3989	425739		1440	106	22
2926	319075		1184	109	23

AURLI
Globals	Turnover	Players	Avg. value
680	74042		266	108	0
682	106779		233	156	1
536	64472		195	120	2
413	49510		171	119	3
469	51421		164	109	4
421	47896		157	113	5
447	50115		172	112	6
420	69148		177	164	7
550	67083		212	121	8
549	59240		222	107	9
537	68253		207	127	10
607	73086		230	120	11
666	73175		250	109	12
666	79082		251	118	13
744	81130		288	109	14
874	99327		313	113	15
977	111388		338	114	16
1168	135224		383	115	17
1349	185078		414	137	18
1298	149755		434	115	19
1357	220919		438	162	20
1336	168330		423	125	21
894	131471		332	147	22
763	100565		302	131	23

SCIPULOR
Globals	Turnover	Players	Avg. value
424	46503		170	109	0
360	38391		135	106	1
394	40556		108	102	2
380	40573		103	106	3
353	46982		93	133	4
392	40830		85	104	5
444	44315		109	99	6
575	61583		129	107	7
764	91427		143	119	8
848	88238		158	104	9
898	98462		171	109	10
810	130570		177	161	11
806	81103		181	100	12
914	127254		201	139	13
927	96970		199	104	14
1037	112794		223	108	15
1000	103859		227	103	16
1114	118403		249	106	17
1097	114841		274	104	18
1251	140407		286	112	19
1150	122168		278	106	20
874	90414		259	103	21
713	77064		222	108	22
529	55139		208	104	23

Use the numbers to prove/disprove what you need


Edit:

If I may offer my own view on the theory about the "limited loot / hour" then I would say that figures such as "Overall" 0-1 vs 1-2 is advocating the opposite.

12192	1865881		3217	153	0
10184	1431689		2727	140	1

in hr 1 to 2 AM.. fewer globals AND players are getting globals.. and the average global size is also dropping in size...

Imo the global size and frequency is a direct function of the amount of people online, without any limitations.
Now - I say "online people" where it prehaps should be "money spent in any given timeframe" - but as we all "spend money" when we do something I say "online people".
Think of it this way; 10 people online, each loosing 10 ped/hr = 100 PED hr to be either used to buy new cars for the MA personel.. or to go back to the "lootpool". I belive everything in their programming is set as %.. so X% are going back and Y% are shipped to the MA bank account (possibly with a minimum per/hr to the MA bank - thus the system will be in "minus" right after a VU update since their income flow has to accomodate for the down time where they dident earn money.)...

This, very simple, solution allows for two very important things.
1: EU can expand in its current model without having to redo/tweak the loot system.
2: It will be near impossible to predict anything in regards to loot patterns since the patterns will be based on the current activity inside Entropia Universe. (There may be certain models in place that distribute the loot between mobs - this is where legion comes in) but the value distributed in the universe will be near impossible to predict. This is what Entropia Tracker tries to help you with. We can show you when there is a lot of activity occuring inside Entropia Universe and thus when the chances of a big loot is bigger compared to another time.

Any loot theory could be bang on the spot - and yet the "good loot" you have predicted will only be a 31 PED TT loot... Since there isent more loot in the pool at that given time.
This will confuse you as to "is my theory right" and it will never allow for MindArk to loose money on any loot.

 

[Kerham]

These need to be stated:
Globals are an indicator of total loot.
Globals occur at a statistically random interval within a loot

But them both are false or should I say better, false with some salt on it.

Respectively globals are not indicator of total loot, but indicator of how a part of loot was delivered in a particular moment. You should have seen by now plenty of, say, oa 103 runs resolved either by 3 larges either by 1 substantial which is same thing.

As for second, depends what you understand by "random" and by "interval within a loot". Reffering to, e.g., mining amped 104, my globals tend to come random in 100 tries, but quite similar in 1000 tries.

I see the theory applying if we talk about 100 avatars hunting together in same area same mob for say 2 hours once in their lives. But 100 avatars hunting together in same area same mob for 10 years should end in same place tt-wise (given similar setup used). And might be that 1 of 100 avatars will have in this time 5M globals and 1 of 100 will have 123 globals, but that will reflect how their loot came to each of them, in what waves, not how much they "stole" from each other. One ava taking one global doesn't mean necessary that other players would get 49 noloots, it can man aswell he will/had have 49 noloots (already).

 

[Legion]

geee lot to reply too

What you know is based on knowledge of the old planet.
what you know to be true about the old planet is what people have agreed to be true in conventions, laid down in language.
You know that the sky is blue, yet if another tribe seperated from the rest calls the sky orange... then it could also be orange.

Actually the system havent changed really, the basic system how it works is the same, it's only the hmm not sure how to explain it but hmm only thing that has changes is the "shape" of it for lack of a better word.


Amenophis i changed ur post a bit to make it easier to reply to.

1. Each volume of global activity generates a cycle of loot with its length being proportional to the volume of input in the according activity.

2. Percents vary though cause of personal curves of the hunters involved. Mostly cause of the great accumulation of mid range players and the decrease in low range ones , the distributed loot grew in the high middle - upper levels while the low-middle sections of the distribution graph accuses lower returns on daily basis. It's not the loot that got worse, but its average value , and only because it gets split amongst more.

4) normal loot is being distributed from the same input server
5) uber/ath loot is being redistributed from all planet's servers. Only 1 bucket with several holes
6) server cycles are spread among all possible sources of income ( flow generating activities ) and their periodicity is determined by the activity volume of a server

1. Is partially wrong. When the cycle starts and how long it is is fully predetermined. And i could prove it if i wanted to, however i dont want to show the app i have although as MA changed the system about 1½ month ago now or maybe 1 month it can be harder to prove as my app is not fully synched. But i'm working on that

2.Not 100% sure how you mean here but i'll give my anwer on how loot is distributed. In each mob as i'll take hunting as an example there is a certain totall amount of possible payout. This builds up over time as we all know.

When a mob is hunted it's loot slowly builds up, but some of the decay spent does not only go to that mob, it also get's diverted to the area, maturity and so on. ie you have a few different lootpools you could say. Now an area has a set % of possible loots let's say an area has xk ped to pay out totally and it has 10 mobs in the spawn. This would produce (an example) 1mob with 200 ped global, 2 mobs with 50 ped, 4 mobs with 40 ped and so on.

Now you say an event area get's more globals due to more spent there which is true, but it's also that more of those mobs that has the higher loot get's killed more often.

4 and 5, I belive there is only one "pool" of possible totaly payouts and this keeps track of the mobs, maturities etc etc and distribute a certain % of this possible payout to the different activities, spawns, mobs and maturites and so on.

6. There is no server cycles, there is ONE cycle or rather there are three but those are all based on one cycle and this cycle repeats every day. However it does change rotation and alignement at certain days.
And it's not dependant on the amount of activity on the server atleast not for the cycle itself.

Also, If you know how it works, why state it on a forum that is read by almost every single player in the game? (Not directed at you sledge, and definitly not directed as an offense to anyone might I add, just a fact) Want it to go out of business and lose your cash cow? Bad entrepreneurial skills right there Oh but maybe you want to be renowned? Either way, you're once again hanging yourself by the neck, they'll just monitor your activities and if they can't (because you think youre a smart ass and decide to play on another character) they'll just make the variables change for a couple weeks or months, loot will change, people rant about it, a couple quit, you lose all your credit for cracking it, be called a charlaton, and MA has a big grin on their faces at the extra revenue nobody seemed to care about, due to the non transparency, oh, and at your futile attempt to succeed, then change their variables back, or not, and move on to the next guy that cracks it

The thing is that even if you know the sysem it wont guarantee a profit So that's why i talk about some of my knowledge. So even if everyone knew parts of the system MA would still make money due to how the system is built up.

Also yes MA does change stuff, they changed it about 1½ month ago for the cycles we speak about above. Before this it was dead easy to figure out exactly what area had better loot. Nowadays it's a pure pain in the arse to figure out, i can sit and watch the chat for an hour and still not be sure where the best loot is at the moment. *raises fist at MA* ;P

I sometimes "EF search" my self... So here goes:

The following are based on numbers from 1/1-2010 and upto now()...
The last column is hour stamp. 0 = 0-1 AM.. 1 = 1-2 AM.. and so on..
Use the numbers to prove/disprove what you need

If I may offer my own view on the theory about the "limited loot / hour" then I would say that figures such as "Overall" 0-1 vs 1-2 is advocating the opposite.

in hr 1 to 2 AM.. fewer globals AND players are getting globals.. and the average global size is also dropping in size...

Imo the global size and frequency is a direct function of the amount of people online, without any limitations.
Now - I say "online people" where it prehaps should be "money spent in any given timeframe" - but as we all "spend money" when we do something I say "online people".
Think of it this way; 10 people online, each loosing 10 ped/hr = 100 PED hr to be either used to buy new cars for the MA personel.. or to go back to the "lootpool". I belive everything in their programming is set as %.. so X% are going back and Y% are shipped to the MA bank account (possibly with a minimum per/hr to the MA bank - thus the system will be in "minus" right after a VU update since their income flow has to accomodate for the down time where they dident earn money.)...

This, very simple, solution allows for two very important things.
1: EU can expand in its current model without having to redo/tweak the loot system.
2: It will be near impossible to predict anything in regards to loot patterns since the patterns will be based on the current activity inside Entropia Universe. (There may be certain models in place that distribute the loot between mobs - this is where legion comes in) but the value distributed in the universe will be near impossible to predict. This is what Entropia Tracker tries to help you with. We can show you when there is a lot of activity occuring inside Entropia Universe and thus when the chances of a big loot is bigger compared to another time.

Any loot theory could be bang on the spot - and yet the "good loot" you have predicted will only be a 31 PED TT loot... Since there isent more loot in the pool at that given time.
This will confuse you as to "is my theory right" and it will never allow for MindArk to loose money on any loot.

Yes you are right starfinder, the global freq is higher when more players are online.

nr 2 you are however wrong about, it was very easy to predict the pattern, but your looking at the wrong thing sort of i can tell you exactly what to look for on msn if you wish. It is still possible to do but it's a LOT harder nowadays.

 

[Profit]

...everything...

Assumptions that you assert as fact. Baseless assumptions backed up by ZERO information, evidence or testing.
ZERO.

 

[Starkiller]

The thing is that even if you know the sysem it wont guarantee a profit So that's why i talk about some of my knowledge. So even if everyone knew parts of the system MA would still make money due to how the system is built up.

Also yes MA does change stuff, they changed it about 1½ month ago for the cycles we speak about above. Before this it was dead easy to figure out exactly what area had better loot. Nowadays it's a pure pain in the arse to figure out, i can sit and watch the chat for an hour and still not be sure where the best loot is at the moment. *raises fist at MA* ;P

First of all, I wasn't talking about you specifically, as I'm not a guy to bash around people that are actualy trying to do something, albeit futile, its still commendable, but lets keep going.

How do you know it wont garantee a profit? On what sort of facts do stand on? To make the statement you just did, means that you know how it works, yet you said earlier you only know how it partially works, therefore how can you be sure the part you don't know does not make it predictable and broken? Knowing parts of the system is the same as not knowing the system... Thats like saying you know the equasion, but not know which numbers to put in.

And for the other paragraph, we all know that they change stuff, its common knowledge, any gaming company builds patches and whatnots, but given the lack of transparency from the company you have no way to know how frequently they change whatever it is they need to change to keep themselves safe. Unless of course, you have inside knowledge, and that sounds quite alarming to me, given the size of such a security breach, and definitly put me off on depositing anymore.

No matter what can be thought of and whatnot, without a fully cracked copy of the system, the idea of a monkey punching keys on a number pad rigged in the shape of a banana is still just as viable as loot cycles and averages and other "partial" assumptions

Oh, and I know for a fact that at least our tech support team is made up of chimps and apes, cause all they do is mash premade text onto their replies This one was easy to crack hehe.

Notice how its inside that pretty castle they bought with your loaned money, now we also know why they bought it and gave it a makeup, so their monkeys can work in peace in their own chateau

 

[Legion]

First of all, I wasn't talking about you specifically, as I'm not a guy to bash around people that are actualy trying to do something, albeit futile, its still commendable, but lets keep going.

How do you know it wont garantee a profit? On what sort of facts do stand on? To make the statement you just did, means that you know how it works, yet you said earlier you only know how it partially works, therefore how can you be sure the part you don't know does not make it predictable and broken? Knowing parts of the system is the same as not knowing the system... Thats like saying you know the equasion, but not know which numbers to put in.

And for the other paragraph, we all know that they change stuff, its common knowledge, any gaming company builds patches and whatnots, but given the lack of transparency from the company you have no way to know how frequently they change whatever it is they need to change to keep themselves safe. Unless of course, you have inside knowledge, and that sounds quite alarming to me, given the size of such a security breach, and definitly put me off on depositing anymore.

No matter what can be thought of and whatnot, without a fully cracked copy of the system, the idea of a monkey punching keys on a number pad rigged in the shape of a banana is still just as viable as loot cycles and averages and other "partial" assumptions

Oh, and I know for a fact that at least our tech support team is made up of chimps and apes, cause all they do is mash premade text onto their replies This one was easy to crack hehe.

Notice how its inside that pretty castle they bought with your loaned money, now we also know why they bought it and gave it a makeup, so their monkeys can work in peace in their own chateau

Didnt think you were talking about me, i just took myself as an example Well for me for instace i knew the lootcycles ie when an area was good and i was in those areas for 3-4 months in a row and i still lost. How can i know i was in the right spot? well i have a webapp (no wont show it) that shows in realtime what area is good and if you follow that and the hofs in the chat it's dead on. or rather it was dead on as ma has changed it lately.

And well if you knew the entire system ofcourse then you would profit. But for example like me i knew one part of it and i still didnt profit.

 

[sledgehammer]

I sometimes "EF search" my self... So here goes:

The following are based on numbers from 1/1-2010 and upto now()...
The last column is hour stamp. 0 = 0-1 AM.. 1 = 1-2 AM.. and so on..

OVERALL
Globals	Turnover	Players	Avg. value
12192	1865881		3217	153	0
10184	1431689		2727	140	1
9155	1243920		2387	135	2
7967	1182344		2041	148	3
7643	1281314		1899	167	4
7602	1110541		1910	146	5
8034	1136232		2005	141	6
9186	1252894		2243	136	7
10414	1357554		2460	130	8
11552	1462666		2711	126	9
12439	1636773		2881	131	10
13411	1733142		3153	129	11
13977	1859378		3241	133	12
14329	1862260		3357	129	13
14983	2095402		3517	139	14
16987	2188984		3798	128	15
18228	2470090		3920	135	16
20178	2587834		4197	128	17
22891	3206817		4491	140	18
25435	3420242		4917	134	19
25646	3469406		5060	135	20
23108	3126649		4828	135	21
18854	2585684		4313	137	22
15027	2049782		3703	136	23

According to my theory on loot, once the servers reach a certain number of players, globals per hour would increase disproportionately faster to players per hour, as the servers would need to keep as low of a load as possible.

I took Starfinder's numbers, and made the figures for hour 0500 MA my base figure. All total global loots, and total players are a percentage of that. As you can plainly see from these numbers, after you pass 3000 average players per hour, you get a deviation in the increase of globals compared to the increase of players, where globals per hour begins to increase more rapidly than players per hour. This is what my loot theory predicted before I saw these numbers. In fact, with 5000 unique players globaling during 2000 MA time, you have a 25% better chance of globaling than you do if you play at 0500 MA time. For this to be true there necessarily MUST be more no-looters to keep MA's balance manager working properly and not giving out more than they take in.

 

[Legion]

According to my theory on loot, once the servers reach a certain number of players, globals per hour would increase disproportionately faster to players per hour, as the servers would need to keep as low of a load as possible.

I took Starfinder's numbers, and made the figures for hour 0500 MA my base figure. All total global loots, and total players are a percentage of that. As you can plainly see from these numbers, after you pass 3000 average players per hour, you get a deviation in the increase of globals compared to the increase of players, where globals per hour begins to increase more rapidly than players per hour. This is what my loot theory predicted before I saw these numbers. In fact, with 5000 unique players globaling during 2000 MA time, you have a 25% better chance of globaling than you do if you play at 0500 MA time. For this to be true there necessarily MUST be more no-looters to keep MA's balance manager working properly and not giving out more than they take in.

Well you cant only look at total numbers you need to go into each mob aswell. And as for more nolooters i never see any real difference depending on when i hunt as long as i'm in the right area. ie i can hunt at 2am or 2pm or 5am 5 pm etc and the nolooters is the same.

 

[sledgehammer]

ATROX
Globals	Turnover	Players	Avg. value
2314	255374		981	110	0
1844	201997		804	109	1
1664	180053		754	108	2
1514	191213		692	126	3
1453	181810		640	125	4
1470	161612		647	109	5
1494	202018		682	135	6
1708	201489		764	117	7
1887	195487		817	103	8
2195	250564		878	114	9
2410	290213		1012	120	10
2454	249539		1016	101	11
2570	279187		1050	108	12
2675	269134		1077	100	13
2860	345496		1169	120	14
3337	368658		1283	110	15
3555	406587		1352	114	16
3859	438544		1412	113	17
4290	555607		1481	129	18
4924	576493		1644	117	19
5407	615320		1735	113	20
5434	667177		1696	122	21
3989	425739		1440	106	22
2926	319075		1184	109	23

Here's atrox number organized the same way. As you can plainly see, we have the same, and in fact, somewhat exaggerated results as the overall scores. At 2100 MA time, you have a full 41% better chance of an atrox global as you do at 0400 MA, which again, necessitates a relative increase in no-loots.

 

[Profit]

How do you know it wont garantee a profit? On what sort of facts do stand on?

This is your mistake. Assuming Legion deals in facts as opposed to his imagination.
As you can see here, he's deluded himself into believing his own fiction:

or rather it was dead on as ma has changed it lately.

Dude you crack the system so often, you've forced them to change it atleast a dozen times in the last year alone!

I bet it's your fault MA takes so long to implement things, they're so busy constantly updating the the loot system to accomodate your latest crack thread!

You're amazing Legion!





As you were...

 

[Legion]

Here's atrox number organized the same way. As you can plainly see, we have the same, and in fact, somewhat exaggerated results as the overall scores. At 2100 MA time, you have a full 41% better chance of an atrox global as you do at 0400 MA, which again, necessitates a relative increase in no-loots.

True perhaps, but your still missing a variable and not looking at the info the right way. But screw it i'll post the info on how to do it cause MA has screwed me so many times

What you have to do is to look at values above above ~1k hofs, for one mob, and you have to look at every day and display it as a timeline And preferably you have to look at a unique mob, ie it spawn only in one place.

This should give you a pattern, and up until march sometime ( i think) the pattern changes daily ie one day the timer is on forward the other day it's mirrored and eudoria and ama is the oposite of each other. Then in march sometime you will see a change that the pattern changes every 4 days instead i think it was and then again some month or month and a half ago it changed again and now it's totally off from what it was, there are now atleast three different alignements of the timer and i have no clue if ama and eudoria are there oposites etc any more, MA made it a LOT more random on how it changes.

As an example i could give you trox young - old which was mainly hunted at ithaca. This should give you a timeframe of if i remember correctly at about 10 - 11, 4-5, 1-2 and 7-8 am and pm, you should in up to march or such see this pattern change daily, ie one day it will be for example 4 - 5 and 10 -11, then the next day it should be 1 - 2 and 7 - 8. This could be done for scips too which is roughly on the same location.

This is your mistake. Assuming Legion deals in facts as opposed to his imagination.
As you can see here, he's deluded himself into believing his own fiction:



Dude you crack the system so often, you've forced them to change it atleast a dozen times in the last year alone!

I bet it's your fault MA takes so long to implement things, they're so busy constantly updating the the loot system to accomodate your latest crack thread!

You're amazing Legion!





As you were...

Dude.. your so clueless...

 

[truantduck]

your theory about loot is wrong. Nobody wants to hear your drivel. Go away.

 

[Profit]

Dude.. your so clueless...

Says the cryptic pseudo theorist.




sidenote: anyone else notice all Legion's "facts" - when eventually de-classified lol - are based in the past so as to be impossible to scrutinize and he only thinks they are accurate "facts"?

 

[Starfinder]

Right. There are a couple of factors to consider here.

1: If MindArk were to make a system that COULD be predicted.. It would be too easy to do so as a community - simply because we are so many, and because its RCE.

2: Its just as easy if not even more easy to create a system that can not be predicted (well.. prehaps, but more on that later).


Ive said this numerous times but here my "simple theory" is again.

"Action X at location Y affects loot turnover at location Z on mob Q"....

Exmple: Buzz is crafting OA-104's at twins... He is loosing money because of the actions happening another place... Now.. Because he is loosing money Ambuls at Nea's will have better loot....

There has to be what I call "entry points" to this system, that is where your income is not the product of actions taking place at other places (otherwhise it would be a cyclic graph, which is not something you want). Those entry points could be set by MindArk as a result of EU's general preformance the previous hour/day/month...

You could also think that you have "cracked the system" quite easily by having the loot system work this way since on a mass level we tend to do the same each day. If you look at the tracker you can see that there has been +0.43% the same amount of crafting globals today as yeterday..
So, since we are doing the same each day.. The resulting distributing of money within Entropia Universe would be almost the same. (This is if the activities happen the same place on the same item each day - which I have no idea if true)...

But freak occurances (ATH's, new item drops, new mobs, new VU, server load, people online.. the list goes on) or remapping of the graph to distribute the loot could chance the system quite easily...

One thing I took very serious note of in argueing for "my theory" is that I have heard MA personell say (each time I visited them at MA HQ in gtb) that even if they knew every line of code to the system - they could not predict where what would happen, it was all down to the activities inside Entropia Universe.

I do however belive that with enough data we can come close to understanding the system to the point where we can "force MindArk" to chance the way the system works - or by banning the usage of all 3rd party applications.

If it was possible we could get a much better understanding of the loot system by "simply" having EVERYONE inside Entropia Universe run a program that sends in EVERY SINGLE action which may affect the economy to a cerntral server which then could be used to find patterns.
We need to know (based on the previous statements):
- decay on armor
- decay on weapon
- ammo usage
- probe usage
- bomb usage
- tool decay
- MindForce usage
- when what is getting TT'ed
- loot/no loot + loot values

.. and the location of all those events real time.

Then we PREHAPS could get a better understanding of why things are happening as they are. But until we do so the best chance we have now of predicting anything would be Entropia Tracker or the other trackers out there. That said, since none of the trackers know everything that is happening in relation to loot (49 PED loots for instance.. or "no loot"ers).. its at best a "qualified guess" as to when certain mobs will be good to hunt.

Right now my "qualified guess" for a big loot is:
- Ambulimax
- Droka
- Fresco
- Itumatrox
- Kreltin
- Legionare
- Longu

Of those "high chance mobs" the following also have a big daily increase in loot size:
- Droka: +11.69% increase in loot size.
- Legionare: +5.06% increae in loot size.

(You decide if that means that the "uber" wont happen because the loot is given out in bigger regular drops, or if it means that its about to pop)

Given those "elements" I would go hunt droka, trooper, legionare N of twinpeaks........ But, I dont claim to "know the system".. This is just a product of the best avalible data we have at the moment..

 

[Legion]

Says the cryptic pseudo theorist.




sidenote: anyone else notice all Legion's "facts" - when eventually de-classified lol - are based in the past so as to be impossible to scrutinize and he only thinks they are accurate "facts"?

sigh.. oh well here is my damn app i had. I didnt code it, someone from nbk did and this no longer works i have a local one though that works from time to time but i still need to figure out how to synch it. And this app was SPOT on as i said earlier. http://www.magnussoderberg.com/EU/t...0&w1=100&l2=280&w2=100&l3=420&w3=100&h=&m=&s=

The only settings you should change is the reverse and the map you use, the center is not correct. And at the moment this will only work on a certain day as MA has recently changed it, and it's not fully aligned so it will most likely only work for a certain amount of time then it will go out of alignment again. If you really want to check if it worked i guess you could get a few hofs and their time from the tracker and put that time in but i wont do it

Also cp and cnd as still in testing as i dont know how big the size of the maps should be. The area inside the shapes are the areas that hofs, and the red one is the one you would like to be in as that is the slowest one only produces minins and small hofs though. And i say it again, this was 100% spot on.

*EDIT* Forgot to mention the page only updates every 30 seconds due to webhosts request.. it was a BIT cpu intensive it seems

 

[Starkiller]

Right. There are a couple of factors to consider here.

1: If MindArk were to make a system that COULD be predicted.. It would be too easy to do so as a community - simply because we are so many, and because its RCE.

2: Its just as easy if not even more easy to create a system that can not be predicted (well.. prehaps, but more on that later).


Ive said this numerous times but here my "simple theory" is again.

"Action X at location Y affects loot turnover at location Z on mob Q"....

Exmple: Buzz is crafting OA-104's at twins... He is loosing money because of the actions happening another place... Now.. Because he is loosing money Ambuls at Nea's will have better loot....

There has to be what I call "entry points" to this system, that is where your income is not the product of actions taking place at other places (otherwhise it would be a cyclic graph, which is not something you want). Those entry points could be set by MindArk as a result of EU's general preformance the previous hour/day/month...

You could also think that you have "cracked the system" quite easily by having the loot system work this way since on a mass level we tend to do the same each day. If you look at the tracker you can see that there has been +0.43% the same amount of crafting globals today as yeterday..
So, since we are doing the same each day.. The resulting distributing of money within Entropia Universe would be almost the same. (This is if the activities happen the same place on the same item each day - which I have no idea if true)...

But freak occurances (ATH's, new item drops, new mobs, new VU, server load, people online.. the list goes on) or remapping of the graph to distribute the loot could chance the system quite easily...

One thing I took very serious note of in argueing for "my theory" is that I have heard MA personell say (each time I visited them at MA HQ in gtb) that even if they knew every line of code to the system - they could not predict where what would happen, it was all down to the activities inside Entropia Universe.

I do however belive that with enough data we can come close to understanding the system to the point where we can "force MindArk" to chance the way the system works - or by banning the usage of all 3rd party applications.

If it was possible we could get a much better understanding of the loot system by "simply" having EVERYONE inside Entropia Universe run a program that sends in EVERY SINGLE action which may affect the economy to a cerntral server which then could be used to find patterns.
We need to know (based on the previous statements):
- decay on armor
- decay on weapon
- ammo usage
- probe usage
- bomb usage
- tool decay
- MindForce usage
- when what is getting TT'ed
- loot/no loot + loot values

.. and the location of all those events real time.

Then we PREHAPS could get a better understanding of why things are happening as they are. But until we do so the best chance we have now of predicting anything would be Entropia Tracker or the other trackers out there. That said, since none of the trackers know everything that is happening in relation to loot (49 PED loots for instance.. or "no loot"ers).. its at best a "qualified guess" as to when certain mobs will be good to hunt.

Right now my "qualified guess" for a big loot is:
- Ambulimax
- Droka
- Fresco
- Itumatrox
- Kreltin
- Legionare
- Longu

Of those "high chance mobs" the following also have a big daily increase in loot size:
- Droka: +11.69% increase in loot size.
- Legionare: +5.06% increae in loot size.

(You decide if that means that the "uber" wont happen because the loot is given out in bigger regular drops, or if it means that its about to pop)

Given those "elements" I would go hunt droka, trooper, legionare N of twinpeaks........ But, I dont claim to "know the system".. This is just a product of the best avalible data we have at the moment..

A much more educated guess then all the gibberish people write about, although a bit too unpredictable i would say, as even if they cannot truly predict the loot outcome, they must have a method to tone it down or up at will, either for testing porpuses or simply to prevent abysmal revenue losses. Then again, if their formula is self toned (as in ATH is looted, general loot goes lower, and yada yada) as you stated, then there wouldn't really be a need for what I just mentioned.
And well, to not resort to the third party programs, in case of ban, a big group of people could be organised to strictly test it, even if the changes would be minimal, in case your theory would hold true, one would definitly see some sort of change somewhere, by simply shifting a big amount of players to do oriented tasks. Would prove much more dificult but it would only be a last resort.

Quite interesting indeed, plus rep, but I stand with my monkey and hamsters theory

 

[Profit]

sigh.. oh well here is my damn app i had.

anyone else notice all Legion's "facts" - when eventually de-classified lol - are based in the past so as to be impossible to scrutinize

 

[Starfinder]

A much more educated guess then all the gibberish people write about, although a bit too unpredictable i would say, as even if they cannot truly predict the loot outcome, they must have a method to tone it down or up at will, either for testing porpuses or simply to prevent abysmal revenue losses.

If the return to the playerbase is a function of the turnover then they can simply set a percentage for the day saying 50% back to "loot pool" 50% to us...

Then again, if their formula is self toned (as in ATH is looted, general loot goes lower, and yada yada) as you stated, then there wouldn't really be a need for what I just mentioned.

I think you are viewing it from the wrong point of view. Look at it like your bank account. If they were to lower the loot after a big ATH, then what that would mean was that their account was in negative value after paying out the ATH - and then letting the following loot pay for the ATH. Looking at the tracker, once a big ATH has dropped the daily turnover in PEDs are always greater leading me to belive that you build up for an ATH instead of giving it out on "credits" as it were. This is also why I belive that you can to some extend predict ATH's.. When none has happend for a long time, you can argue that the pool is ready for an ATH.

And well, to not resort to the third party programs, in case of ban, a big group of people could be organised to strictly test it, even if the changes would be minimal, in case your theory would hold true, one would definitly see some sort of change somewhere, by simply shifting a big amount of players to do oriented tasks.

Yes.. If we got 500 crafters to make only one item for a week... and NOTHING else.. Then I belive we would see a change in loot patterns as well..

Please PM me when you have found 500 crafters who want to do this..

 

[Starkiller]

Yes.. If we got 500 crafters to make only one item for a week... and NOTHING else.. Then I belive we would see a change in loot patterns as well..

Please PM me when you have found 500 crafters who want to do this..

Let me get back to you once someone has forced MA to banning third party software

I think you are viewing it from the wrong point of view. Look at it like your bank account. If they were to lower the loot after a big ATH, then what that would mean was that their account was in negative value after paying out the ATH - and then letting the following loot pay for the ATH. Looking at the tracker, once a big ATH has dropped the daily turnover in PEDs are always greater leading me to belive that you build up for an ATH instead of giving it out on "credits" as it were. This is also why I belive that you can to some extend predict ATH's.. When none has happend for a long time, you can argue that the pool is ready for an ATH.

Hm, i supose if general loot would really go down, the activities would stagnate and make them lose more money. Yeah i get it, that would mean their return could be like the one off LA's, a set percentage of all loot is cut for MA's account instantly.

 

[Legion]

As i said in my post.. check for yourself, just ask starfinder to give you january hofs and plot in each time for the mob. I wont do it as i already know what the result will be.

 

[BlackHawk]

The reason for no loots is clear and you are right. It is connected to server load. More people online > more loots on low level mobs >> more globals.

In this thread I said exactly that long time ago.

https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/about-entropia-universe/95371-about-loot-lootius.html

 

[Legion]

The reason for no loots is clear and you are right. It is connected to server load. More people online > more loots on low level mobs >> more globals.

In this thread I said exactly that long time ago.

https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/about-entropia-universe/95371-about-loot-lootius.html

oh nice one rAnd you might be on to something there About the ram and stuff, that would fall in line with another of my things i know that works.

However i dont think there is the "luck" factor. I do think it based on what you say perhaps however any avatar in the area can be lucky, and the loot values are based on your theory however not the end loot value, that is done by a calculation done by the client at every loot. Sort of.

 

[BlackHawk]

If loot would be calculated by the client, MA would be out of business long time ago... They are not that stupid.