Developer-Notes--2

I dont want to be kicking you when you are down so to speak, and you do have my sympathy for your losses, but one minute you are saying you did not invest but were playing a game and having fun and the next you hoped for a better return on your investment.
I know its also not really fair to point to your tracker but you favourite mob is atrox, you craft lvl2's that you pay markup on the materials, at a rate you have to TT the end result and you mine with big amps with markup on a taxed area with low markup ores, you then get 60% TT return and nowhere did you think that maybe you should try something differently? Your really told yourself, without having any evidence to back this up, that you would magically get your losses back and a return on your investment if you just kept on doing the same thing over and over despite bad results?
now i am not some uber player, but i tried 1k HP mobs with a 12K bankroll and it did not go well, the mobs i tried it on did have markup loot, but after losing half that bankroll for the 2nd or 3rd time i stopped doing this and changed how i played. And i wasnt getting 60% return all the time for this to happen, my returns were higher.
To me it really looks like you were chasing a big hof/ath without sufficient bankroll or the understanding of the risks involved.

Yeah, I see what you are saying. Investing either way is still an investment. Safely buying good UL stuff that can be resold is one way to invest, and playing stupidly like I did cuz it is fun is another way. Either way is an investment, mine was just way more risky :) All I said all along is that I can't play the game they way that it is fun to ME so I should leave. I wasn't asking for 90% returns, but shit, I at least thought I would have been able to retain a growing ped card because of the sheer amount I deposit, but my total tt of items has stayed the same for a year, DESPITE adding 180,000 ped to it in the last year, and up until two days ago, depositing regularly. That is the part I dont get, and that is the reason feel like stopping. No hard feelings about it. I could limit myself and not lose as much and yes it would be easier to afford, or I could keep playing the way I did when it WAS fun and when I DIDNT care about the money, but unfortunatley, neither of those options excite me anymore because I now know what I know.
 
Is this playing efficently?


Hard to tell, what armour is that, what plates are you wearing? What amp are you using? What fap are you using? Do you tag them and keep it 1v1 as much as possible? How much of your total spend is defence costs? Does your average markup looted there cover your tt losses and MU expenses?

Anyway, playing inefficiently doesn't mean you'll never get a good loot.

Gratz btw, nice.
 
Is this playing efficently?

By the image, far from it, Ghost/Phantom on krelt's is far from being the best combo, plus, they are high regen mobs, with LR41, its not really the best dps either.

Not sure what else are you using like Jimmy asked here
Hard to tell, what armour is that, what plates are you wearing? What amp are you using? What fap are you using? Do you tag them and keep it 1v1 as much as possible? How much of your total spend is defence costs? Does your average markup looted there cover your tt losses and MU expenses?

Anyway, playing inefficiently doesn't mean you'll never get a good loot.

Gratz btw, nice.

And that is a spot on line Jimmy.
Otherwise most people would never HoF.
Inefficiency / Efficiency take place in LONG term, hard to say anything in short term, because you have can a few runs with decent return, but ... maybe if you were using a better setup would be even better in a percentual way.

Anyway, this thread keeps being quite amusing
 
It's not bitterness Rick, I've been in this mmo since 2005, so I've seen alot of people in this situation, it's the cold hard reality in EU (and I didn't say Project Entropia for a reason)....House always wins.
I wouldn't call mining and hunting as investing,whether you like it or not this mmo is like a casino. I did not personally attack him, investing is what I did in Project Entropia and made a decent profit out of it, blowing it on amps and expecting a personal lootpool isn't the right way....sorry.

Well I think that investing money into this game is really different then what he has been doing with his money, sorry but if one depoes 30K dollars and only got like 10% back as the person stated then I seriously wonder where the investing part has a place in this. To me this sounds more like burning peds like crazy and expect to get it back.
And imo the mid lvl players/ depoers are the ones of the biggest majority the game runs on not the few Big depositors.

The big "investors" are not buying the game, they just buy PED. Quite a bit of difference right there.

Wow! It like bashing your head against a brick wall!!! :banghead: .. I will say one thing though isn't it funny it is the people with the spare cash to put in are the ones that understand economy ... Hence they have the spare cash I guess ... And i am sure they will still have money long after EU ... They will just not give it to MA lol
... RIP EU economy!
 
.... I will say one thing though isn't it funny it is the people with the spare cash to put in are the ones that understand economy ...

Do you honestly think that people who do not have spare cash (or as much) to put into EU, do not have an understanding of economy?
Do you assume that a person who does not deposit, or who deposits small amounts, only does that because they do not have spare cash?
Have you considered that some people enjoy the challenge of maximising their returns under a very difficult system, and that perhaps they may actually have a better understanding of economy than those who are less concerned with that?

Not trying to rub salt in your wounds mate, but please do think about how you view things, because I believe you may benefit from doing so.
 
Do you honestly think that people who do not have spare cash (or as much) to put into EU, do not have an understanding of economy?
Do you assume that a person who does not deposit, or who deposits small amounts, only does that because they do not have spare cash?
Have you considered that some people enjoy the challenge of maximising their returns under a very difficult system, and that perhaps they may actually have a better understanding of economy than those who are less concerned with that?

Not trying to rub salt in your wounds mate, but please do think about how you view things, because I believe you may benefit from doing so.

Sorry if you and some others only want to read what you want to read I can not help you there. I didn't say anything about other people that don't have spare cash ... I said there's a reason WHY people have spare cash IRL because they are Savvy with their money.

Who cares anyway .. He is leaving ... I am close to ... So is most of the high depo players ... Good luck with the challenge when there aren't any peds left in the economy.
 
Hard to tell, what armour is that, what plates are you wearing? What amp are you using? What fap are you using? Do you tag them and keep it 1v1 as much as possible? How much of your total spend is defence costs? Does your average markup looted there cover your tt losses and MU expenses?

Anyway, playing inefficiently doesn't mean you'll never get a good loot.

Gratz btw, nice.

Pham/Ghost mix 5B's, was using A104 amp, EK2600 FAP un-teird/V unl heal chip, yes I tagged it once with plasma annil. Level 1? (dont understand) I shot it with no breaks dont have to heal much on baby kretlins. That one was in the aurli dome. Personally I think MA reduced the repair bills on CP, used to be horrendous, or maybe I'm skilled on them now.

By the image, far from it, Ghost/Phantom on krelt's is far from being the best combo, plus, they are high regen mobs, with LR41, its not really the best dps either.

Not sure what else are you using like Jimmy asked here


And that is a spot on line Jimmy.
Otherwise most people would never HoF.
Inefficiency / Efficiency take place in LONG term, hard to say anything in short term, because you have can a few runs with decent return, but ... maybe if you were using a better setup would be even better in a percentual way.

Anyway, this thread keeps being quite amusing

ok not always good to give away all tips, but I will say this. I never do well at CP with apis LP485 beast, but I have had my best loot with LR carbines there. I'm not a fan of LR41 on CP as I prefer LR53, but I wanted to try it with LR41 as a little bit of amusment to check MA efficency strategy.

Besides lost my arse a little on Sumima yesterday, trying to pull an LR53 to use at CP. Maybe that explains why I got that drop on 3-5th mob, but no personal loot pool???

I have another idea why I think I loot good weapons at CP lately (as had a X5 hof the other day), but not ready to reveal. I want to do more testing see if a coincidence or not.

the funny thing is I ran LR41 in Kret dome a few weeks ago and got 200 pedder globs etc. Who knows. bear in mind my top skill is Laser rifle.

I posted the global just for some ammusement really.

GL

Rick
 
Pham/Ghost mix 5B's, was using A104 amp, EK2600 FAP un-teird/V unl heal chip, yes I tagged it once with plasma annil. Level 1? (dont understand) I shot it with no breaks dont have to heal much on baby kretlins. That one was in the aurli dome. Personally I think MA reduced the repair bills on CP, used to be horrendous, or maybe I'm skilled on them now.



ok not always good to give away all tips, but I will say this. I never do well at CP with apis LP485 beast, but I have had my best loot with LR carbines there. I'm not a fan of LR41 on CP as I prefer LR53, but I wanted to try it with LR41 as a little bit of amusment to check MA efficency strategy.

Besides lost my arse a little on Sumima yesterday, trying to pull an LR53 to use at CP. Maybe that explains why I got that drop on 3-5th mob, but no personal loot pool???

I have another idea why I think I loot good weapons at CP lately (as had a X5 hof the other day), but not ready to reveal. I want to do more testing see if a coincidence or not.

the funny thing is I ran LR41 in Kret dome a few weeks ago and got 200 pedder globs etc. Who knows. bear in mind my top skill is Laser rifle.

I posted the global just for some ammusement really.

GL

Rick

Yep Exaclty, no personal loot pool wouldnt go with your looses yesterday.
Also I know a lot of people top skilled in Laser pistol using lower end pistols with similar dmg to LR41, without the same odds.

I only used you as an example since you provided us a picture :)
 
You also think, that 9/11 was an inside job, correct? :D

Don't forget that we're dealing with some folks that also believe that you should put butter on burns, blood is blue, and that you shouldn't swim until an hour after you eat.

This shoots a very popular loot theory right out of the water! Very interesting times:yup:
 
book_of_crying_baby.jpeg


:popcorn:

~Danimal
 
People misread things so easily. Anyone who understands programming knows u can't TRULY program random, so they use variables that change always. Hence the "dynamic" tagline. Now when u do an action, the system determines what ur loot should be on the fly. Using variables, such as time, location, mob hp, ur skills, gear; they can SIMULATE the random feel. Now this doesn't mean that it's truly random, nor does it mean u have no odds of gettin ur ped back. The system seems set up to ensure that when variables are changed often enuff they eventually trigger a "hot" period many of us ppl who play extended hours have felt. This can lock in for some periods, days, weeks, etc. Sometimes u get locked into a negative loot period and ur one of the people paying into the daily hofs, or high return runs. Eventually a variable knocks u out of that. I saw someone posting something about a global being taken away then given back exactly the same. Well, this goes a bit to prove this. The only variable he didn't copy EXACTLY was time and location. Skills, gear, etc probably were extremely close, therefor re-triggering the said loot. Different variables have differing weight depending the day. You will notice some days a particular mob or area is hot, or u just chipped in/out a certain skill and ur golden suddenly. People make odd connections with each of these events, and often the connection ONLY ties in with a particular event, neglecting all other things proving otherwise. People don't try to find something that explains it ALL, and this does btw. Now u can't predict how to line them up, what is hot, or not, u can't tell if ur avatar is just cursed today cause ur payin INTO.

As a sidenote, can people pls stop saying some little tiny event that can be explained by a simple lucky day or talking about samples of a couple K peds... Those samples are completely overshadowed by an AVERAGE day any top tracker hunter has in ped cycled, they are meaningless. One day can b returns of 50%, another can be 1000%, nvm if u take into account days where the system is building an ath and all goes to shit and u can't rely on any average return. There are multipliers at work, sometimes lasting LONG periods. So some people have a nice period during 10k ped cycled where all is well and think they have the answer. You guys don't even understand what scope of odds we're talking here... It's like someone saying u can't catch cancer from smoking cause the 3 people you know to be heavy smokers are still alive. FFS.


I know i'm wasting my time, but MAYBE, just maybe one person will catch on to what it means and stop these arguments with no weight... People love talking points like "i did this and look, it proved u wrong THIS ONE TIME." What purpose aside pumping up one's ego does this serve if it doesn't get us closer to the truth.
 
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Lol a picture says a thousand words ... Here's EU future specially for the ones that keep bringing down the big depositors ...

vsh0053l.jpg
 
The "all the ubers will sell out because of change X and the game will die" talk has been going on forever, but it is just that - talk.

We'll see how many really do cash out. Some will for sure, and that is unfortunate, but it also is part of EU life. Their skills and gear will get sold to other avatars and on we go. Not everyone fell into this trap, after all.

:beerchug:
Miles
 
Do you have recorded data for this? Also, are you using sights and scopes on the 7.4/10 weapon?

Naw, never kept hard core data like many do although I've always appreciated them doing it, like you.
Yes, using hunnier(spelling) and umm.. gah.. wow.. been so long don't even remember the name of the other. One that give highest skill mod. Don't always use the scopes and sights though, depends on the mob and if they are on another weapon.

Guess, I'll log in and take a few shots..... maybe.... ;)
 
Anyone who understands programming knows u can't TRULY program random, so they use variables that change always.

"Anyone who understands programming knows" that special hardware is used to generate TRUE random numbers. No point in commenting the rest of your post, as you entirely based your chain of reasoning on the absence of true randomness in computer science, which is simply untrue.
 
Naw, never kept hard core data like many do although I've always appreciated them doing it, like you.
Yes, using hunnier(spelling) and umm.. gah.. wow.. been so long don't even remember the name of the other. One that give highest skill mod. Don't always use the scopes and sights though, depends on the mob and if they are on another weapon.

Guess, I'll log in and take a few shots..... maybe.... ;)

Wish you had, because we did do a lot of testing in the past and HA 10 always yields 90-92% hits while HA 1 gives ~80%. If you truly found a difference with different weapons or over time, that would be notable.

"Anyone who understands programming knows" that special hardware is used to generate TRUE random numbers. No point in commenting the rest of your post, as you entirely based your chain of reasoning on the absence of true randomness in computer science, which is simply untrue.

Well to be fair that is a recent arrival in consumer hardware. It certainly wasn't a given back when EU was developed. Furthermore, it wasn't and isn't uncommon to create a custom "random number" algorithm so that an e.g. game AI could be tested repeatedly with the same random numbers. Some contests are judged this way.

I would be rather unsurprised if some of the dynamic/"random" aspects of EU are not actually pseudorandom or random at all.
 
I know i'm wasting my time

The only problem with your post is that it can be used nomatter what position you'd take. Be it uneco or eco, your reasoning suits it all.
 
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Wish you had, because we did do a lot of testing in the past and HA 10 always yields 90-92% hits while HA 1 gives ~80%. If you truly found a difference with different weapons or over time, that would be notable.

I probably should have. kept better track. I did log in and planned on 100 ped test with two different guns. I shot 2 ambu's... why only two? 1st one was while helping people that were sweating.. - 32 shots, 8 of them misses.... 7.4/10 with handgun, 2875, A106 amp, no scope or sight, no armor, no fapping. Said screw this and logged.

I know I would even out a bit more if I kept going as it cycles a lot of misses then not so many but have ~ 20+% miss rate. So, I guess from your data, I have 1 HA....:/
I don't get any better with 10/10 and this is about what I usually get with limited handguns like MM or unlimited X5. Only was ever better with the Impk3 (noticeably so) and note, lower rifle skills. No idea if I'm bugged, it's my connection or what.. overall, it's 100% unacceptable and so, I just don't play...

I do seem to get more critical hits with L gun so maybe the CHA isn't bugged.. dunno, don't really care anymore and don't feel like wasting even $20 at this point to re-test. Just wanted to reply.

And hugz Doer.. haven't seen ya in awhile
 
I probably should have. kept better track. I did log in and planned on 100 ped test with two different guns. I shot 2 ambu's... why only two? 1st one was while helping people that were sweating.. - 32 shots, 8 of them misses.... 7.4/10 with handgun, 2875, A106 amp, no scope or sight, no armor, no fapping. Said screw this and logged.

I know I would even out a bit more if I kept going as it cycles a lot of misses then not so many but have ~ 20+% miss rate. So, I guess from your data, I have 1 HA....:/
I don't get any better with 10/10 and this is about what I usually get with limited handguns like MM or unlimited X5. Only was ever better with the Impk3 (noticeably so) and note, lower rifle skills. No idea if I'm bugged, it's my connection or what.. overall, it's 100% unacceptable and so, I just don't play...

I do seem to get more critical hits with L gun so maybe the CHA isn't bugged.. dunno, don't really care anymore and don't feel like wasting even $20 at this point to re-test. Just wanted to reply.

And hugz Doer.. haven't seen ya in awhile

Doing a 2 creature test... with a non maxed gun.. and an a106. Seriously you are the lifeblood of entropia and people should thank you.
 
Kind of damage, too? Why should that matter?
However, it is obvious that they track a lot of things:

Anyone remember the global Haxtor moogle had?
The servers went down, the ammo was reverted and the stuff from the global was gone as he logged back in - and then he had a global of exactly the same size, just as if the system decided he is due. This if loot aint personal, they have changed it recently, because it sure was 2+ years ago.
(Would explain why my losses did skyrocket recently doing the same things i always did)

it could just mean the conditions were changed back to the ones that caused the global before the reset. If it's based on an algo. of weapon, skill, location, mob or even if it's a lookup table based on a mob then it would have given him the same global.

The fact it was the same size either means time isn't included in the calculations or it's a lookup table or the server picked the next global off the list which again would be the same one. If each mob has a setting that determines how often it globals / hofs / aths which counts down after every kill then it's possible the reset didn't stopped the table updating and so on the next kill he got it again.

As for losses if MA decreased the rate of globalling on your chosen activity / mob slightly but raised the standard loot and if you relied on the globals to decrease your loses then that would explain it.

All of which would need no personal tracking or personal loot pool.
 
Dec. 2011 loot changed a bit... Maybe the personal loot pool theory thing changed too...

Atleast MA is giving us some transparency as to how our loot works...though from what I read it isn't good news :(
 
I don't wanna get into arguments, i thought i'd help clarify. People seem to like to find one little part of an argument and go off on it disregarding anything of value i may have said. Ok, there's a PHYSICAL way to plug in a random event, likely MA used hardware generators... no. So, moot argument. I can think of a few thousand unlikely ways to use the physical world to generate random in a computer; I meant strictly using lines of code and no special hardware, ok? I apologize if i wasn't as precise as some would like. I only tried to give a most likely scenario and the way i see it, all signs so far I've seen pointed to things being this way and fits most other odd phenomena people report all the time. I'll try to back off a bit and let people evolve their own ideas i guess, i'm a bit tired of getting singled out anyways.
 
it could just mean the conditions were changed back to the ones that caused the global before the reset. If it's based on an algo. of weapon, skill, location, mob or even if it's a lookup table based on a mob then it would have given him the same global.

The fact it was the same size either means time isn't included in the calculations or it's a lookup table or the server picked the next global off the list which again would be the same one. If each mob has a setting that determines how often it globals / hofs / aths which counts down after every kill then it's possible the reset didn't stopped the table updating and so on the next kill he got it again.

As for losses if MA decreased the rate of globalling on your chosen activity / mob slightly but raised the standard loot and if you relied on the globals to decrease your loses then that would explain it.

All of which would need no personal tracking or personal loot pool.

Or it is just based on random loot based on 90% of least cost to kill mob. VERY simple, easy to implement. No need for a million variables then. Also ties in with what MA said, being eco is more effective. The less you spend to kill a mob the less the difference.

Simple maths, and ties in with everything MA said in the beginning of the post.

I highly doubt it works like this though. Back in the old days, big loots were paid out in time periods....eg between say 13.00 and 14.00 mob x would loot well. A lot of people made a lot of greater than 100% tt returns from this. Although MA changed it in '05 or early '06, i dont remember which, when a guy was selling this knowledge.

My guess is that now MA still have good loot periods (this is only a guess and no way to prove it), but instead of every day at the same time, (easy to work out previously), it is now randomised in some way. (on a side note this would help the none gambling aspect). But i have not seen anything to prove or disprove this, so no way of knowing if this kind of loot distribution even exists anymore

Either way it is still 90% tt returns, but the initial example is the way i would chose. Then each loot is decided on each kill, MA still get 90% tt returns, and no need to track anything then. Why make things massively complicated when there is no need to?

Rgds

Ace
 
Let's talk some crafting ) Compared to hunting/mining it has way fewer variables and thus is easier to track.

If the system is based on randomly triggered multipliers (being in the right place on the right time) and doesn't compensate tt, then clicking prints with varied click cost should be a financial suicide. Let's say you are clicking amp prints - level 5's, 7's, 8's, 11's, 13's, throw in some apises and big svempas, maybe a couple of small component prints for your amp clicks - nuts, screws etc.

All prints are maxed, you have enough skills, you always click on full quantity, so there is no issue of being "ineffective" whatsover.

If the system doesn't care what you are clicking, sooner or later you'll get a few bad runs on your expensive prints and lose, let's say, 10K ped in a week. Then you get a tiny hof on small component print (400 pedder on screws) or even a semi-decent one on a small amp print (1.5K on level 5). Your multipliers are evened out - you had a bad streak, then got your uber multiplier and everything is equalized. Except you just wasted quite a bit of your tt.

If the system didn't "owe" you anything after that, a few component or small print hofs would bury you, end of story. But it doesn't happen that way. At least it didn't. Based on my personal experience you get "normal" periods with average return, bad periods when you lose on everything and good periods when you get most of it back - either through numerous small-medium hofs on lesser prints or a big hit on more expensive one.

I'm in a -100K tt hole for the year at the moment though, so maybe it got recently changed )
 
Yeah, I see what you are saying. Investing either way is still an investment. Safely buying good UL stuff that can be resold is one way to invest, and playing stupidly like I did cuz it is fun is another way. Either way is an investment, mine was just way more risky :) All I said all along is that I can't play the game they way that it is fun to ME so I should leave. I wasn't asking for 90% returns, but shit, I at least thought I would have been able to retain a growing ped card because of the sheer amount I deposit, but my total tt of items has stayed the same for a year, DESPITE adding 180,000 ped to it in the last year, and up until two days ago, depositing regularly. That is the part I dont get, and that is the reason feel like stopping. No hard feelings about it. I could limit myself and not lose as much and yes it would be easier to afford, or I could keep playing the way I did when it WAS fun and when I DIDNT care about the money, but unfortunatley, neither of those options excite me anymore because I now know what I know.

I'll try one more time because i really hate to see this happen to someone, i really dont see what you did as investing in any way. If you depo 180K ped in a year, wanted to play big, and wanted to see it as investing and not high stakes gambling the things you could of done to lessen your losses while still having a chance to hit big are things like:
chip up (if needed), buy some decent BP's with a product you can actually sell at the end of your crafting run.
buy a UL ore amp and mine areas that have minerals with a decent markup.
buy a decent UL sib weapon and hunt mobs like scips/sumima/fresq or other mobs that at least have a chance to drop some markup stuff that sells.
and most of all built up a decent bankroll to actually have a chance of weathering the ups and downs at that level.

I personally dont see why you are so hooked on the "personal lootpool" model, the "lose at a level i can afford to and trust in statistical averages" model has its own attractions if you think about it?
I know you and others are angry at MA for this statement but you could also thank them for it because at least now you are thinking about changing what you were doing.
 
Let's talk some crafting ) Compared to hunting/mining it has way fewer variables and thus is easier to track.

If the system is based on randomly triggered multipliers (being in the right place on the right time) and doesn't compensate tt, then clicking prints with varied click cost should be a financial suicide. Let's say you are clicking amp prints - level 5's, 7's, 8's, 11's, 13's, throw in some apises and big svempas, maybe a couple of small component prints for your amp clicks - nuts, screws etc.

All prints are maxed, you have enough skills, you always click on full quantity, so there is no issue of being "ineffective" whatsover.

If the system doesn't care what you are clicking, sooner or later you'll get a few bad runs on your expensive prints and lose, let's say, 10K ped in a week. Then you get a tiny hof on small component print (400 pedder on screws) or even a semi-decent one on a small amp print (1.5K on level 5). Your multipliers are evened out - you had a bad streak, then got your uber multiplier and everything is equalized. Except you just wasted quite a bit of your tt.

If the system didn't "owe" you anything after that, a few component or small print hofs would bury you, end of story. But it doesn't happen that way. At least it didn't. Based on my personal experience you get "normal" periods with average return, bad periods when you lose on everything and good periods when you get most of it back - either through numerous small-medium hofs on lesser prints or a big hit on more expensive one.

I'm in a -100K tt hole for the year at the moment though, so maybe it got recently changed )

I have a classic example of this, i was condition crafting, lost a lot of tt, then went to normal crafting and got a compensation hof for the condition stuff

They say no personal loot pool, but this has happened on many occasions, and recently in the last week

So either MA's statement is not clear what they mean, or there is something else going on?

Rgds

Ace
 
I'm in a -100K tt hole for the year at the moment though, so maybe it got recently changed )

You're just a unskilled nib and crafting in inefficient way for sure! (smile.jpg)
 
I know you and others are angry at MA for this statement but you could also thank them for it because at least now you are thinking about changing what you were doing.
Indeed.
The announcement accompanied with a recent bad loot streak (prolly a coincidence) forced me to stop and think it over. Going slowly again, trying to find out what works what doesn't.

I'm starting to think this is the game... ;)
 
I have a classic example of this, i was condition crafting, lost a lot of tt, then went to normal crafting and got a compensation hof for the condition stuff

They say no personal loot pool, but this has happened on many occasions, and recently in the last week

So either MA's statement is not clear what they mean, or there is something else going on?

Rgds

Ace

Well, the thing is really establishing causality, isn't it? If there is a time-dependent loot multiplier that has a sawtooth like graph, then it could explain a large set of the "bad loot after hof" and "losses to mining crafting, then a big compensation hof" behaviours people keep talking about.

That is, you need to establish that to get the "compensation hof" from normal crafting, you need to do the condition crafting with the losses first.
 
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