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Discussion: The Cry Engine uncertainty effect

Wollongong

Wollongong

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Jerry "Wollo" Wollongong
It is pretty common notice that investors invest only when they have a reasonable certainty of an expected return. The less certainty, the higher the expected profit must be to warrant an investment.

No investor will want to invest in a city/country which has been announced to receive an atomic bomb within the next few days. As such, an announcement of intended attacking already has a direct economic effect on the target nation.

This translates to EU.

Our expected return, on EU, is quite certain: on average, we will lose some money on every minute we play. So far no problem, as it is no weird thing to pay for entertainment.

However, this set rate of return is now accompanied by a major uncertainty factor: The Cry Engine update.

Many people are uncertain whether they will be able to run EU on CryEngine. And EVERYBODY is uncertain as to when it will come.

Will it come on june 11th, after the exhibit ends? Will it come just before summer holidays, so that all schoolgoing youths can spend fortunes on the new and improved EU? Or will it turn out to be christmas? Nobody knows, and those who claim to know have either a real-working crystal ball, or they are lying.

So... say you are uncertain whether you will be able to play, and you are also uncertain about when this update will come. And, of course, you are aware that you are uncertain.
Would you be willing to deposit then?

Most people will say no. There is no use in depositing 10, 20, 30, whatever dollars into a game, if you aren't reasonable certain you will be able to play in 7 days.

What motivation lies in increasing your skill, building your avatar, if you know there is a chance that in 7 days, nothing will be there?

The motivation is limited.

As such, I feel it is safe to assume that many people are sitting on their dollars, waiting for what comes next. During this wait, the influx of money is less. MA will be hurting as they have less income, and the economy will be under strain.

Implications:
- Expect dropping rates for the time to come, at least untill CE comes into effect (not nice)
- MA have a strong motivation to work their asses off to ensure the CE will be implemented ASAP (nice, and not nice)
 
Wollongong said:
Nobody knows, and those who claim to know have either a real-working crystal ball, or they are lying.
Click to expand...


:whisper: looking atm in cry2stal ball, it says EU is dynamic and you just have to wait patiently.
 
I don't get it :scratch2:
CE won't change anything you stated IMHO. other things MA will do will. CE is just a graph update IMHO
 
Acronoid said:
I don't get it :scratch2:
CE won't change anything you stated IMHO. other things MA will do will. CE is just a graph update IMHO
Click to expand...

I agree... it is just graphics to me - the wrapper that holds the candy.

However, it is very unrealistic to expect it to function properly in the first 2 months after the release. I would really appreciate an advance notice from MA about the deployment of CE2, but I am certain that will not happen. The advance would allow us to be careful about listing auctions and bidding on the same only to discover the next morning that we can log in and crash immediately... can't walk... can't see the auction interface... you know the list. All those bugs will pass eventually and then the economy will return to normal. Other than that, I don't see CE2 affecting the economy.
 
Acronoid said:
I don't get it :scratch2:
CE won't change anything you stated IMHO. other things MA will do will. CE is just a graph update IMHO
Click to expand...

I think it will. I agree with a lot of what he is saying. If you don't know if you can run CE2 on your computer and your not planning on buying a new PC or upgrading then why would you continue skilling up or buying new items?

I know of several people who have decided to wait after the graphics update to continue depositing or buying new items. I even know of people who have been selling off most of their items and cashing out because they know their computer won't be able to run EU after the update.

So, i see what the thread starter is saying. It has an impact on MA's revenue in some shape or form. I don't know if it's a really big impact or not... But, i think MA will get their lost revenues back once the media start talking about the upgrade and the influx of new players arrive.

It's not just a graphic update, it's a huge step forward. It's a big technological leap to. My computer is only 2 years old and a friend of mine tried Crysis on it and it runs on minimum settings and it still lags a bit. So, i understand why people would be holding back from investing in EU when their faith is unsure.
 
@ hooters, you will be able to play EU after CE if you can play it smooth now. you might not see much graphics, but you could do "your bussiness" IMHO.
but if you already have trouble going to PA atm (lag-wise), then CE will screw you gracefully...:(
 
Acronoid said:
@ hooters, you will be able to play EU after CE if you can play it smooth now. you might not see much graphics, but you could do "your bussiness" IMHO.
but if you already have trouble going to PA atm (lag-wise), then CE will screw you gracefully...:(
Click to expand...

I use to be able to play EU before i bought my new computer. And if my new computer can barely play Crysis on minimum, then what you say is false.

And the PA example... I think like 75% or more of all people in EU experience lag when they first TP into PA, so i guess were mostly all screwed then!
 
hooters said:
I use to be able to play EU before i bought my new computer. And if my new computer can barely play Crysis on minimum, then what you say is false.

And the PA example... I think like 75% or more of all people in EU experience lag when they first TP into PA, so i guess were mostly all screwed then!
Click to expand...


hmm, maybe I'm spoiled then (hardware wise) :scratch2:
well, I get the thread now, but I hope MA doesn't make eu as heavy as crysis. I can play crysis on medium settings quite well, but it eats much resources.
 
Well I know for a fact that my graphics card can't handle Crysis on any settings. It's really not supposed to even work for EU, but it does. :p But I'm not depositing until after the update. Because I'm fairly certain that it won't run and I'll have to use that money to buy a new graphics card.

But I don't think it will hurt MA too much. They'll just lower the amount of loot returns even more and everything will be just like it was for them.
 
All is simple .....
1) China ... Do u think China investors would build something like new planets on "so old" engine and platform for long-term investment? I`m 2k% sure that China requested a lot of specific graphics possibilities, effects and features what current engine and EU platform dont support so Ma need invest in to get China deal. SO plan A ... lets develop current engine. Plan B ... see point 2.

2) with current game graphics is hard to attract new players ... a lot of players look a lot also on game graphics. So taking CE2 they get China deal and also newcomers will be more. And also remaking all on CE2 they can correct and avoid various mistakes/bugs we have now (but there will be new :() to improve EU and keep developing new features like vesicles what might can be hard with current engine comparing to CE2.

Oh and if u have low-end PC ... thing about upgrade otherwise u will be able play on old games and mate ... MA dont want EU be "old" type of game.

thats my opinion
 
I can run crysis in mid-settings atm, but I will probably upgrade PC so I can
run EU and Crysis in high-settings. IMO, it's worth it, *IF* EU will be like
Crysis in high-settings. ;) Looked at Crysis today, where the settings
were on high, it sure do look great. :)

When it comes to eco, I guess MA will get less depos, but due to many
reasons. Lower activity under summer has always reduced the amount
of active players, so it will probably not be only due to CE2, that depos
are less in next month(s).
 
i can see what the OP is saying - that people will reduce their deposits if they are not sure if they will be able to login post Cryengine2 upgrade. i have been concerned about this myself and the medium term effct immediatly after the upgrade as potentially many people cant login until they payout hundreds for a new PC.

however, the reports of some here on this forum indicate that machines at the EU minimum spec can run Crysis on low setting, so i think things will be ok. MA need to be proactive and communicate the spec requirements so that people are put at ease on the issue though.
 
I really can't wait for the Cryengine and I don't see anything negative about it just a HUGE + for mindark and EU
 
MysterLV said:
All is simple .....
1) China ... Do u think China investors would build something like new planets on "so old" engine and platform for long-term investment? I`m 2k% sure that China requested a lot of specific graphics possibilities, effects and features what current engine and EU platform dont support so Ma need invest in to get China deal. SO plan A ... lets develop current engine. Plan B ... see point 2.
Click to expand...

I am discussing the uncertainty effect that is taking place now. As soon as CryEngine is installed, the uncertainty about the date and possibilities are obviously gone, as such the uncertainty effect will be gone.

2) with current game graphics is hard to attract new players ... a lot of players look a lot also on game graphics. So taking CE2 they get China deal and also newcomers will be more. And also remaking all on CE2 they can correct and avoid various mistakes/bugs we have now (but there will be new :() to improve EU and keep developing new features like vesicles what might can be hard with current engine comparing to CE2.
Click to expand...

No arguing with that, but again, that does not take away the uncertainty effect which I have described.

Oh and if u have low-end PC ... thing about upgrade otherwise u will be able play on old games and mate ... MA dont want EU be "old" type of game.

thats my opinion
Click to expand...

Again, this is not relevant for the current economic effects the uncertainty creates.
 
I upgraded my computer to handle CE2 a while ago. Not because I have tons invested - I just want to be able to play when it happens.
 
Cryengine affects the stupid economy in PE mindark pays for it and we get too pay tripple for it mindark is screwing us all and we are doomed thats it
 
Dude People are EU addicts they always come back even if that means working a little more IRL to upgrade there gear to keep playing.

thats like saying nobody is ever going to buy new video games anymore cause they dont wanna upgrade there computers.

give me a break everyone who says they will have to quit EU is bluffing. They will find a way somehow. even when they are poor like me.
 
I am going to up date my Pc with a new sound card and a Graphic card Mabe i might get a GeForce 9800 GT.Cant wait for CE2 Even know Crisis was a very cool game i cant think how there going to make a mmo out of the CE2 My guess is there is going to be to much legg.
 
With the money MA is putting into the crytec engine I am willing to bet that it will have minimal lag. Games like call of duty, gears of war, ect. have good graphics and minimal lag (graphics and such are not transmitted during the game usually). There may be a bit more lag due to more users online to gawk at the graphics. There could also be more computer based lag, but with the money coming in I am willing to bet MA will be sure to keep lag as it is now or reduce it. As far as specs go I am sure low end specs will be even lower then Crysis is atm, since MA has a ton of time to work on the engine. Overall the engine should bring more ingame advertising, some good press and some nice investments. Heck if done right loot should increase.
 
RexDameon said:
Dude People are EU addicts they always come back even if that means working a little more IRL to upgrade there gear to keep playing.

thats like saying nobody is ever going to buy new video games anymore cause they dont wanna upgrade there computers.

give me a break everyone who says they will have to quit EU is bluffing. They will find a way somehow. even when they are poor like me.
Click to expand...

Do you really think that the crowd here at EF is "typical" for the EU player in average? Not all people are addicts ya know...

And some of you guys still miss the point: it is not the question whether people will be able to continue to play, as with a big bag of money, all can. The question is: will people now deposit, not knowing whether they will be able (or willing to pay the investment required) to continue to play.

Please try not to mix up those two topics, which are quite seperate.
 
Wollongong said:
It is pretty common notice that investors invest only when they have a reasonable certainty of an expected return. The less certainty, the higher the expected profit must be to warrant an investment.

No investor will want to invest in a city/country which has been announced to receive an atomic bomb within the next few days. As such, an announcement of intended attacking already has a direct economic effect on the target nation.

This translates to EU.

Our expected return, on EU, is quite certain: on average, we will lose some money on every minute we play. So far no problem, as it is no weird thing to pay for entertainment.

However, this set rate of return is now accompanied by a major uncertainty factor: The Cry Engine update.

Many people are uncertain whether they will be able to run EU on CryEngine. And EVERYBODY is uncertain as to when it will come.

Will it come on june 11th, after the exhibit ends? Will it come just before summer holidays, so that all schoolgoing youths can spend fortunes on the new and improved EU? Or will it turn out to be christmas? Nobody knows, and those who claim to know have either a real-working crystal ball, or they are lying.

So... say you are uncertain whether you will be able to play, and you are also uncertain about when this update will come. And, of course, you are aware that you are uncertain.
Would you be willing to deposit then?

Most people will say no. There is no use in depositing 10, 20, 30, whatever dollars into a game, if you aren't reasonable certain you will be able to play in 7 days.

What motivation lies in increasing your skill, building your avatar, if you know there is a chance that in 7 days, nothing will be there?

The motivation is limited.

As such, I feel it is safe to assume that many people are sitting on their dollars, waiting for what comes next. During this wait, the influx of money is less. MA will be hurting as they have less income, and the economy will be under strain.

Implications:
- Expect dropping rates for the time to come, at least untill CE comes into effect (not nice)
- MA have a strong motivation to work their asses off to ensure the CE will be implemented ASAP (nice, and not nice)
Click to expand...


Computers become obsolete in around 3 years. EU's been around a bit longer than that. Upgrading is inevitable with PC's, not just because games keep up with technology, but eveything else does too.

FarCry uses the first CryEngine and worked on my original (shitty) PC btw, no problems at all.

Don't worry about CryEngine 2. Not many companies choose to improve their business by alienating most of their customers:)

Hurrikane
 
I think if a small minority start selling out because they are afraid of CE2 then you will see others depositing more to buy their gear and skills.

I have been saying for a long time that EU only needs to create opportunity to see just how many current players could deposit alot more if only they had something to invest in.

If decent items started to drop in price that simply means opportunity for those who can deposit to snap up some bargains.

Once bigger numbers of players come into EU, especially the Chinese the demand will rise again. I swear there seems to be some ignorance about China as an economy. It isn't a country of people all earning $1 a day and eating rice for breakfast lunch and dinner.
BEIJING (AFP) — China had 345,000 millionaires by the end of last year, the second-most in Asia after Japan, according to a new study by US investment bank Merrill Lynch.http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5ixQlU1GeghWewhn1PFb2nZwzEPPg

Sorry chicken little but the sky isn't falling ;)
 
Outman said:
With the money MA is putting into the crytec engine I am willing to bet that it will have minimal lag. Games like call of duty, gears of war, ect. have good graphics and minimal lag (graphics and such are not transmitted during the game usually). There may be a bit more lag due to more users online to gawk at the graphics. There could also be more computer based lag, but with the money coming in I am willing to bet MA will be sure to keep lag as it is now or reduce it. As far as specs go I am sure low end specs will be even lower then Crysis is atm, since MA has a ton of time to work on the engine. Overall the engine should bring more ingame advertising, some good press and some nice investments. Heck if done right loot should increase.
Click to expand...
Yes But this is a mmo so there maybe some problems when the CE2 is relesed wether it be leg or something else...
 
Hi,

my machine is capable to run Crysis in medium settings - what does it tell me about the capability to run EU/CR2? Right, exactly nothing! It all depends of what MA's team does with it.

For instance, Oblivion. I'm able to run at max. settings - stunning graphics, fluid movement, and working very well (not a good game although, IMHO ...). And EU utilizes the same game engine, gamebryo. What do we have in EU? Crappy graphics, rubberbanding, lags, CDT's, and movement like or keyboard/ mouse commands would be transmitted via an old 9.6 modem ...

So we don't know:
  • anything about EU/CE2's hardware specs
  • anything about what we'll get
  • anything about a timeline
What we guess to know can only be speculation, and judging the competence of MA's developing team by their work with the gamebryo engine cannot give me much hope.

But this is not topic here. How will this all influence the readiness to deposit/ invest now?

  1. For myself, it's simple: It cannot come much worse. For me, the fun factor (and thus my willingness to pay for) was steadily decreasing since my start in '05, nerf after nerf, I'm sparing you my long, long list. I'm just telling you that there's quite some more people like me, that have dramatically reduced their deposits and are just in game still because of good friends there. And maybe because there's still a little hope that the better old time might come back sometimes ... These participants are hardly affected by the upcoming change, contrarily, it might help to hold them. There's a word about planets managed by other companys, maybe me might migrate there?
    .
  2. Then there's a large amount of participants that simply don't care, that maybe not even know more than the most meagerly marketing releases from MA. Guess this would be the by far biggest part of EU participants.
    .
  3. And then there are the heavy depositors, "investors", that drop several 100's of $$ every month, some even more. Since I cannot really understand them [*1], I have a hard time to guess how they will react. A lot of them seems to gather here (on EF) and from what I'm reading, they have full confidence mostly. These must be MA's most valuated customers ("MAMVC" ;-) ), and I doubt MA would try to screw them more than just acceptable, if possible.

So I'm rather sure the CE2 thingie will not affect depositing very much.

The things that are affecting the happiness of participants, the readiness of depositing, and the rate of newbies that don't run away crying after first few deposits are others. There's countless threads about, and it's OT here.

Have fun!

[*1] I'd never ever drop these amounts of money on pure confidence in the business partners good will, without any binding contracts and/ or without any kinds of security like insurances or trust fund to cover at least the TT of the participants belongings. There's things like bankruptcies, takeovers and such in this world ...
 
It never ceases to amaze me, that whenever there is some discussion about CE2 there are many who seem to make this automatic assumption, that on its launch, there will be this sudden massive influx of people just queing up to deposit massive amounts of $ into EU.

Sorry, but I suggest you dont hold your breath.

As for the comment about there being 345,000 Chinese millionaires. Do you really think they got to be millionaires by sitting around on their asses playing games like EU?? Or that they await with orgasmic anticipation for CE2 implementation to join in?
 
Wikkerman said:
As for the comment about there being 345,000 Chinese millionaires. Do you really think they got to be millionaires by sitting around on their asses playing games like EU?? Or that they await with orgasmic anticipation for CE2 implementation to join in?
Click to expand...

The millionaires maybe won't log in, but maybe they will; or their kids will. The Chinese love a gamble (as do aussies btw) and the younger chinese love technology. China's one child policy has meant many of the wealthy children are spoilt and selective abortion has resulted in more boys than girls; the youth will flock to games like EU. That is my opinion and everyone is free to have their own. The Chinese are extremely entrepreneurial which MA's marketing targets. So all in all I am confident that the Chinese will enter EU in droves and some, but not all will be heavy depositors.
 
I think people are still depositing and playing as normally since we have no idea when the CE2 VU will come.

The update will be (from what I understand) mainly a graphics upgrade, although I'm certain that the new engine will allow for many new "functionalities". As much as there is concern about how graphics intensive it will actually be, there are many people playing on PCs that will, at the very least, allow them to continue playing at lower graphics settings. I really don't see that the new engine will cause anyone to stop playing, unless they are already playing EU below minimum specs. Of course we won't really know how Crytropia will play until it is implemented.

One thing to remember is that the new engine will be good for everyone in the sense that it will bring more players to EU with graphics that will put EU among the best looking games around. MA will benefit from an influx of new players, like the CND boom, and hopefully the loot will improve... :D

Cheers :beerchug:
 
My own personal pet theory is that the vast majority of effects on the in-game economy when CE2 is unrolled would be a crash in certain mediocre item prices and common, high-ticket commodities (ESIs) when half the resellers can't log in anymore.

Alas, i really don't think that CE2 will break compatibility with most computers that can currently run EU, so my theory will not get gloriously proved.
 
There is no such thing as an investment without risk. But you'll never succeed if you don't bite the bullet ;)
 
There are several points here:
Many people deposit, not to succeed long term but to be able to hunt tonight.
When a new VU comes some things will change and some people will see opportunities to buy up things in advance which they can sell at a profit later. Maybe apartments will look superb and more people will want them? Perhaps clothes will increase in value because they will look much better? Someone may well be buying up hats and coats right now.
Personally I would like to see MA introduce the CRY engione in the following fashion:
Create a new continent (small island?) with just one tp which everyone can reach (like PA or New Oxford) which uses the new engine. Implement the engine only on this island to start off with. This would allow players who want to and have to appropriate hardware to be able to try out the new engine and expose the inevitable bugs. It would also mean that people will see the difference in graphics between the new and old engines. Once this seems to be working then perhaps Amethera can be converted and when that has been working for a while the rest of the game can be converted. I would much rather the conversion is done this way than the whole game changed at once, even if it means having two versions of the program installed on my PC at the same time.
 
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