FYI: Binomial Distribution, Loot, and you.

[Spinage]

Lol.

Actually, according to Marco "Loot is not influenced by skills. Loot is influenced partly by looting avatar, partly by weapon used and other factors".

If my memory doesn't fail me, the respective answer was given in one of the IRC chats of Stratics HoC for PE. Not sure if those are still available around.

Interesting, but we must remember he also repeatedly says "all avatars have equal chance". So whatever he is trying to imply, we must assume it fits into both statements.

Theres a lot of talk about different weapons making it more likely you will loot different types of items (no different in TT I assume). Maybe M avatars can loot more M stuff. I have no idea, but still, that would give everybody equal chances, but still rely on those factors. Complete speculation though.

Also, by partyl being influenced by avatar and weapon, it could actually simply mean that the formula they use to simulate random uses these two factors in the equation, amongst with a ton of other stuff.
A random formula can't exactly be true random... SO invariabably it will rely on some things (in my limited programming knowledge).

However, when considering that you can never program true random, it is important to note that you can actually never simulate true random (e.g. flipping a coin is always biased dependant on the way a human flips a coin), and that, in fact, computer simulated randomness is in most cases more random than a "real life" random event.

 

[billairboy]

what is the loot if it is not eco and profit though? but actually theres an underlying thought here, where does "eco" come from? is eco something MA is concerned with or somthing we are obsessed by? even if skills dont effect loot, they do effect eco (better hit/damage). does this mean eco is independent of loot quality and distribution? or put another way, does the system care if you are eco, you will get the same back, just over a longer period?

Loot is what you get from the mob. "Eco hunting" is to get the loot with as little cost as possible (decay, ammo).

I have hard to believe MA have set up a loot system that is effected by the weapon type you use to kill the mob. Would a handgun give a diffrent loot than a rifle? Very hard to believe.

 

[mrproper]

I have hard to believe MA have set up a loot system that is effected by the weapon type you use to kill the mob. Would a handgun give a diffrent loot than a rifle? Very hard to believe.

Yes, it is hard to believe. Yes it is true that a weapon will give different loot than another weapon, but only after using it in different setups and efficiencies.

 

[Snuggins]

a)
11-06-2009:
https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/general-discussion/169796-new-vu-sucks-me.html
11-15-2009
https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/...ified-omegaton-fast-aid-pack-sga-edition.html (got ModFap)

Check the dates on this one again. The whine was a little over a month after the uber sga drop.

As to the op, it's a nice illustration of the counter-intuitiveness produced by randomness. Here is a link to a great book on the subject that is readable by anyone and also discusses how we can all (with our human psyches) learn to cope with the effects of randomness in our lives. It's full of wonderful quotes.

The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives

I don't think loot is random though. The results (which people already complain about the unfairness of) would be orders of magnitude more uneven if loot was really random and all spending and looting came from a common "pool."

There is a lot of variance in people's results, but I think it's actually less than the variance in the activities we undertake. That points in the direction of some correcting mechanism that brings us all towards a common result. I think strategy in EU is figuring out how our choices relate to the correcting mechanisms and maximizing predictability of particular outcomes.

I still don't have a good strategy yet though.

 

[Sirhc]

Yes, it is hard to believe. Yes it is true that a weapon will give different loot than another weapon, but only after using it in different setups and efficiencies.

Seen the Mod Merc and Imp MkII effect quite a bit over the years. Whether its eco hunting allowing for more hits to the loot server with less cost or weapons carry some type of modifier depending on what they are and how they are used which might influence loot in some way I do not know . I do know that Marco's special gun won't generate loot when used if that says anything.

I still think EU has roots imbedded in the desk top roll playing games like D&D prior to PCs being in every household.

D&D weapon chart example

When I started looking in my charts and old AD&D books it got me to thinking about how things are played out in EU. We don't have diverse classes but as your avatar grows it changes and those changes influence what you can use and how well you can use it. Maybe the weapon type opens you up to different loot algorithms like some weaponry in the desk top role playing allowed you to use different dice if I remember correctly.

I do think there are plenty of different variables that make up what we loot, how we loot it, and when it loots. Some of us may never have the right combination of skills, equipment, and whatever mojo MA has secreted away to ever be privy to certain types of loot.

There are much smarter people than I that probably can figure it all out. I just think at times we need to look at who initially implemented Project Entropia and what their backgrounds and thinking were when they sat down to make a MMORPG RCE. Sure EU has been modified but those roots are still there they just keep improving upon them and now they are selling the platform.

MA is the Dungeon Master and we are the players with all our stat sheets, profiles, weapon types, etc etc.

Now its got me thinking about creating an Entropia Universe Fiend Folio

 

[aridash]

I have hard to believe MA have set up a loot system that is effected by the weapon type you use to kill the mob. Would a handgun give a diffrent loot than a rifle? Very hard to believe.

hard to beleive? yet you would presumably be quite happy to accept that one weapon would have a return better than another based on eco? if i have more rifle skill than pistol, am i not going to be more eco? but above its said that skills arent important...

then consider that for a mid level player a DOA LM has significantly lower decay than say a CB26 (L), yet the CB26 (L) has better eco. if MA takes decay as revenue, which is paying more to MA: the higher decay or the lower eco? does MA count the cost to kill? if it doesnt then eco is meaningless.

just throwing thoughts out there.

 

[mrproper]

hard to beleive? yet you would presumably be quite happy to accept that one weapon would have a return better than another based on eco? if i have more rifle skill than pistol, am i not going to be more eco? but above its said that skills arent important...

then consider that for a mid level player a DOA LM has significantly lower decay than say a CB26 (L), yet the CB26 (L) has better eco. if MA takes decay as revenue, which is paying more to MA: the higher decay or the lower eco? does MA count the cost to kill? if it doesnt then eco is meaningless.

just throwing thoughts out there.

Ok, so suppose I get an eco of 2, and you get an eco of 3. If both of us spend 1000 ped hunting a certain mob at the same time, in the same area, do you expect me to get 600 ped back, and you to get 900 ped back?

 

[Etopia]

Seen the Mod Merc and Imp MkII effect quite a bit over the years. Whether its eco hunting allowing for more hits to the loot server with less cost or weapons carry some type of modifier depending on what they are and how they are used which might influence loot in some way I do not know . I do know that Marco's special gun won't generate loot when used if that says anything.

i always did enjoy the nice loot when i borrow an IMK2

 

[aridash]

Ok, so suppose I get an eco of 2, and you get an eco of 3. If both of us spend 1000 ped hunting a certain mob at the same time, in the same area, do you expect me to get 600 ped back, and you to get 900 ped back?

its a good question. i wouldnt assert any expectation either way. consider what you've experienced yourself and what others have claimed or demonstrated. 1k its a very small sample, a couple of hofs and you could return with 1200 while i come back with 750. would 10k smooth it out? 100k?

 

[Spinage]

O.K so it's a controversial subject, and I really, really doubt it can be proved either way.

Maybe if some dedicated people (realllllly dedicated) went out with two types of gun, e.g. CB5 and opallo (BLP and laser ) and went and shot through 10k peds of ammo on the same mobs at the same time (just incase time is a variable, got to be careful) and then told us the specific items they looted and how many, we would have a case if say.. someone looted lots of cb13s from an argo, but someone else got lots of lesser teleport chips, but both got roughly same TT excluding decay.

But, as I said, highly unlikely that two people will want to go and burn 1k usd through opallo hunting (it takes like an hour or two to burn 100ped) and meticulously record every type of loot they get/quantity/TT.

Anyway, if that were to be done or discussed, it should probably be in a different thread.

 

[Etopia]

Ok, so suppose I get an eco of 2, and you get an eco of 3. If both of us spend 1000 ped hunting a certain mob at the same time, in the same area, do you expect me to get 600 ped back, and you to get 900 ped back?

many factor may interfair your experience...
If i have an eco gun that over kill every mobs a lot , and you have a gun very adapted to the mobs , you maybe in the end be more than i am
Taking MM with A204 to hunt fugabarba young does not seems so eco...but i am maybe wrong

Also 1k ped is total nothing...variance loot on 1k is very huge...almost all my hunting run are at around 1k ped ,varience in return can be around 400 ped easy depend on the mobs...

 

[Skam]

O.K so it's a controversial subject, and I really, really doubt it can be proved either way.

Maybe if some dedicated people (realllllly dedicated) went out with two types of gun, e.g. CB5 and opallo (BLP and laser ) and went and shot through 10k peds of ammo on the same mobs at the same time (just incase time is a variable, got to be careful) and then told us the specific items they looted and how many, we would have a case if say.. someone looted lots of cb13s from an argo, but someone else got lots of lesser teleport chips, but both got roughly same TT excluding decay.
.

Not quite the same, but you might find this thread and the replies interesting:

https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/hunting/132137-grave-digger-got-bored.html

you might also find this one interesting, if you like numbercrunching: https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/hunting/131297-list-mob-regeneration-rate.html

To quote the OP there:

[EDIT]As you can read further down the thread it has become obvious to me that you get more loot the more damage you do to a mob. Which means the average loot must be much higher for dps to be preferable over eco. It is unknown at this point how much extra loot you recieve but here's an example assuming that it's linear in proportion to the damage inflicted https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/1631093-post41.html

And of course also JimmyB's https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/hunting/101842-some-utterly-insane-tests.html

 

[mrproper]

its a good question. i wouldnt assert any expectation either way. consider what you've experienced yourself and what others have claimed or demonstrated. 1k its a very small sample, a couple of hofs and you could return with 1200 while i come back with 750. would 10k smooth it out? 100k?

many factor may interfair your experience...
If i have an eco gun that over kill every mobs a lot , and you have a gun very adapted to the mobs , you maybe in the end be more than i am
Taking MM with A204 to hunt fugabarba young does not seems so eco...but i am maybe wrong

Also 1k ped is total nothing...variance loot on 1k is very huge...almost all my hunting run are at around 1k ped ,varience in return can be around 400 ped easy depend on the mobs...

THEN WHO WAS PHONE?!?!?

Unless I say: use 1000 ped to kill more than 2000 mobs (as in mobs that cost less than 50 pecs to kill (100-150hp), then all the talk about eco is useless? Is eco really important, or something else is more important, most of the time?

Fortunately I have discovered a loot model, that fits most previous statistics and facts, and I also recently managed to determine a falsifiability model which I'm going to test. In itself it makes the eco reasoning to be useless and just a mental masturbation pass-time, useful for when you don't have enough ped for your time, but until then, any loot theory is interesting to read... just to see the intense debates over nothing......

 

[Jake Rogue]

I lost the patience to read this thread in its entirety about half way through due to the sheer volume of off-topic, irrelevant, illogical, misconceived and misinformed posts that seemed to completely miss the point that the OP was trying to make.

I have to say, though, that I truly admire the patience and determination that Spinage and Witte have displayed here in their numerous and frequent posts explaining what this thread was actually meant to be about in the first place! I just wish that I also had the free time myself.

I also believe that the following quote is some relevant food for thought here:

“Grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.”

Now here's another juicy bone to throw to the wolves:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Sullivan

 

[Spinage]

I lost the patience to read this thread in its entirety about half way through due to the sheer volume of off-topic, irrelevant, illogical, misconceived and misinformed posts that seemed to completely miss the point that the OP was trying to make.

I have to say, though, that I truly admire the patience and determination that Spinage and Witte have displayed here in their numerous and frequent posts explaining what this thread was actually meant to be about in the first place! I just wish that I also had the free time myself.

I also believe that the following quote is some relevant food for thought here:

“Grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.”

Now here's another juicy bone to throw to the wolves:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Sullivan

Lol, thanks and poor sullivan

 

[mandu]

I lost the patience to read this thread in its entirety about half way through due to the sheer volume of off-topic, irrelevant, illogical, misconceived and misinformed posts that seemed to completely miss the point that the OP was trying to make.

I have to say, though, that I truly admire the patience and determination that Spinage and Witte have displayed here in their numerous and frequent posts explaining what this thread was actually meant to be about in the first place! I just wish that I also had the free time myself.

I also believe that the following quote is some relevant food for thought here:

“Grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.”

Now here's another juicy bone to throw to the wolves:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Sullivan

That is a hell of a story! Amazing he didn't go completely insane!

 

[kira-red]

Wonder if he means it indirectly as in eco gun means better loot or directly somehow.

probably not. it's more likely the other way around. in the old days, it didn't seem to matter and everyone was as economic as possible. then, things changed.

I do know, in crafting at least, the skill gain is proportional to what you're consuming.

I've heard the partly by avatar and partly by equipment line,before. I've always thought that to mean the personal cycles of each individual avatar and the decay/burn of the weapon used. of course, I have no proof supporting this; however, the actual mechanics aren't know to us.

in the end, I suppose it doesn't matter too much. one of the best pieces of advice I've heard is "do what works for you and if what you're doing isn't working do something else". I think that's a good philosophy.

also, I've never been one to worry much about the high-end HoFs and such, as I feel that's more luck than plan.

 

[kira-red]

I have hard to believe MA have set up a loot system that is effected by the weapon type you use to kill the mob. Would a handgun give a diffrent loot than a rifle? Very hard to believe.

yep, it is. however, the cost you spend in decay/burn could very well be a factor. after all, the system is aware of that.

back in the old days, thre were people killing spiders with trade terminal weapons (spiders had been trapped, obviously). if you look at evade/dodge gains, you'll notice that they fall off sharply after a while - indicating the system is aware of how long you spend with a particular creature. so, other influences are not impossible to fathom.

and, I actually have an easier time accepting those than the suggestion my fate was determined when my avatar was created.

 

[Etopia]

Unless I say: use 1000 ped to kill more than 2000 mobs (as in mobs that cost less than 50 pecs to kill (100-150hp), then all the talk about eco is useless? Is eco really important, or something else is more important, most of the time?

Good question , i wish i know the reply.
Imho eco is for sure important.But , only taking eco item dont grant you the profit , you still need the loot
Also , you need tactic , as i said , taking MM with A204 to hunt snable is maybe not so eco in the end.


and the point is that ... you still need the loot...
While if i go hunt in the total most eco possible way , i will most of time come back with big loss , there is other player , even if not at best eco , will come back often with nice profit...There is player for who eco is bonus over the profit , it just help them to profit even more from what they do already.
I understand that both case exist , lucky player and unlucky player , thats live.
Now , maybe ,EU is not just a plain total brut perfect ramdom,mainly because if it was the case then EU would be a casino , and thats fobiden.
So there must be other factor than the ramdom and player luck to create the loot.
So , if we admit that , there is other factor that create loot , then we admit some player may use those factor to get loot.And they can use it on purpose ( player did see something work and do it) or they do it because its their playing style.

also , if things was so exactly ramdom , we would not have so many case of strange drop behavior like the eon part , or some bp rain drop(tons bp discover in 1 hour 1 month after update)...


what methode would prove the system is ramdom or not ?
make 10 new avatar and make them craft same bp in same town at same machine ?

 

[Witte]

One thing we know for sure is that eco is very important in team hunts, when setting is stack share. I doubt its any different when you go solo, I never seen any evidence for it. So I am curious what mrproper is up to .

 

[Commodore]

“Grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.”

Now here's another juicy bone to throw to the wolves:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Sullivan

Amen, and Roy Sullivan reenforces the point.

The odds of being struck by lightning for an ordinary person over the period of 80 years have been roughly estimated as 1:3000.[8] If the lightning strikes were independent events, the probability of being hit seven times would be 1:3000^7, or 1:22x10^24. These frequently-quoted numbers hardly apply to Sullivan, however, who by the nature of his work was more exposed to storms than the average person. Virginia, where he lived, averages 35 to 45 thunderstorm days per year, most of which fall in June, July, and August. Between 1959 and 2000 lightning killed 58 people and injured at least 238 people in Virginia. In the United States, 3239 people were killed and 13,057 injured by lightning in the same period. Most of those were males between 20 and 40 years old caught outdoors

Kinda makes you wonder why he didn't change his occupation/location!
Most people would assume being struck is pretty rare and also fail to map the % to the numbers of people in the potential set, thus if you ask the simple question, how many people do you think were struck without this knowledge, then you'd probably get a fiqure around hundread or so. This is mainly due to our generally poor handling of massive numbers and complex data.

When all is said and done, I can't avoid laughing at the idea that MA tried to create a system with so many variables to be fair and interesting - that they failed so utterly and ended with something that looks so contrived. Maybe they'd be better off employing someone to read the forums, research play history and drop nice loots to them, hung for a sheep as a lamb.

 

[billairboy]

hard to beleive? yet you would presumably be quite happy to accept that one weapon would have a return better than another based on eco? if i have more rifle skill than pistol, am i not going to be more eco? but above its said that skills arent important...

then consider that for a mid level player a DOA LM has significantly lower decay than say a CB26 (L), yet the CB26 (L) has better eco. if MA takes decay as revenue, which is paying more to MA: the higher decay or the lower eco? does MA count the cost to kill? if it doesnt then eco is meaningless.

just throwing thoughts out there.

No, i would not be happy about diffrent weapons or other items given diffrent loot, if it was not an open feature. Things like this should not be a secrect.

And i repeat, don't mix up loot with the profit/loss. I am talking about the loot, what you get from the loot window, not the cost of killing the mob. If you are "eco"=killing the mob with the lowest cost, don't effect the loot.

 

[mrproper]

One thing we know for sure is that eco is very important in team hunts, when setting is stack share. I doubt its any different when you go solo, I never seen any evidence for it. So I am curious what mrproper is up to .

Why is that? You get back what you spend. When the team loot is to be distributed more towards your favor, because you did more damage (even with low eco), you get your tt back.

The only winning move, is when you play

There are 2 things I don't know yet, very important in my opinion:
- what does MA think about the time you should spend killing a mob? (seems to be over 30 seconds, if you look at amp/plates/fap decay over that of armordecay, that is.. if... I also knew...)
- how much of the amplifier's tt is "ammo" and how much is unrefundable "decay"?

Also there was a link to another topic with a cool chart curve regarding loot.

And how do you explain the decay differences between L and UL items of the same title, that do not account for the unusable part, or manufacturing costs...

(BTW: For those interested, Marcus du Sautoy was appointed to the Simonyi Professorship for the Public Understanding of Science, succeeding Richard Dawkins in October 2008).

What?! Did Dawkins got kicked out or what?

 

[Kerham]

Eco is important, it cannot be denied. I see it as important both as returnable TT (i.e. there is an eco threshold under which you don't get payed back anymore) and as a cost controller.

But in my views, as long as two players are in the interior of the threshold (let's say for sake of argumentation that the threshold would be 2.0 *real eco* - min dmg and HA taken into account), then is irrelevant if one is 2.9 and the other is 3.1 in terms of payable expenses.

To make an analogy, I'd think that eco is the quality fuel, but ofc you need to keep in mind that different fuels cost different and some cars are cheaper than others, decay would be the quality of suspension/amortiseur/wtf is the good spelling, while GPS would be the experience to recognize a mob (road) suited to your car.

Point is, dmg/pec is a discussion easy to have in hunting, it doesn't require that much university degrees to check decay, ammo burn, use some small math. But once we move toward mining and crafting, things get shady from this point of view. Or fogged.

And since mining and crafting are too part of the game, and I am not convinced them would be very different from hunting, a general perspective would help us better understanding, I think.

 

[Spinage]

Why is that? You get back what you spend. When the team loot is to be distributed more towards your favor, because you did more damage (even with low eco), you get your tt back.

The only winning move, is when you play

There are 2 things I don't know yet, very important in my opinion:
- what does MA think about the time you should spend killing a mob? (seems to be over 30 seconds, if you look at amp/plates/fap decay over that of armordecay, that is.. if... I also knew...)
- how much of the amplifier's tt is "ammo" and how much is unrefundable "decay"?

Also there was a link to another topic with a cool chart curve regarding loot.

And how do you explain the decay differences between L and UL items of the same title, that do not account for the unusable part, or manufacturing costs...

Interesting points, especially about how much of the amp decay is actually decay.. same question for mellee weapons too.

We can't even get an average decay % from weapons to make a good comparison and guess.

Decay of opallo is 0.02 pec with 2pec ammo burn.. so total 2.02 pec with 1% (.99%) being decay.

Now take (randomly) an A-3 Justifier Mk.III Improved with 16pec ammo burn and 2.36 pec decay. That's a 18.36 total cost, 14.75% of which is decay.

So there's a huge different between things..

Now, one thing you can see from this is that obviously MA must not take all decay, other wise people using MK.III imp would be getting 13.75% less returns than a standard opallo user.

Seeing these have gave me an idea for a little statistics test I might post. It kinda nullifies personal loot pool theory though, so I sense another controversial topic coming up with all the believers of that coming with heavy opposition lol.

The basics would be that if you look at weapons often considered more 'eco' you get usually more decay in % of total cost. However, no1 has reported less returns from higher eco weapons (maybe some people have, but the general feeling is you should be more eco). This would imply that MA don't calculate how much decay/ammo you spent and give you a personal return, but instead the mob just has a basic average loot with random factors and the guns are all tailored to kill at the same cost after decay is taken.

E.g. with opallo you could do 'x' ammount of dmg killing a mob for 'y' ped, but -1% decay = 'B' ped to kill.

With imp Mk II, you could do the same 'x' dmg for 'z' Ped, but after the earlier stated 14.75% decay, it would still cost 'B' to kill that mob.. thus meaning the cost to kill was basically the same.

Arg, I actually confused myself then and totally went offtopic to the max..

Expect another big long thread from me in near future LOL

 

[Witte]

I still think that all weapon and amp decay is recycled back into loot and only armor and fap decay is lost. But well thats just my theory, can't proof it .

Why is that? You get back what you spend. When the team loot is to be distributed more towards your favor, because you did more damage (even with low eco), you get your tt back.

When your damage per pec is lower than your teammate you get less in relation to what you spent. For example, when you do exactly the same damage, you get the same loot, but it has cost you more.

 

[mrproper]

Now take (randomly) an A-3 Justifier Mk.III Improved with 16pec ammo burn and 2.36 pec decay. That's a 18.36 total cost, 14.75% of which is decay.

You think that's bad?

Take two items now:
Modified Mercenary EP-40
Maddox IV

Look at them a bit, and tell me, in the event that you spend 1000 ped of ammo and repairs on a mod merc hunt, with no armor, fap, amp, how much actually goes to MA? What about he Mad IV version of the same hunt?

I still think that all weapon and amp decay is recycled back into loot and only armor and fap decay is lost. But well thats just my theory, can't proof it .

So if you hunt without armor and fap, you don't decay at all? So what are skills then?

 

[Witte]

So if you hunt without armor and fap, you don't decay at all? So what are skills then?

Your weapons still decay? And skill make you better and more efficient at things? Maybe I misunderstand your questions

 

[Jake Rogue]

What?! Did Dawkins got kicked out or what?

No, the 68 year old Professor Richard Dawkins (Fellow of the Royal Society, and Fellow of the Royal Society of Literature) retired from Oxford University in 2008 and then went on to write the most excellent book, "The Greatest Show on Earth: The Evidence for Evolution", which has since become a #1 Bestseller in the UK, Ireland, Canada and Australia.

[YOUTUBE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-QWv_0Mjq0[/YOUTUBE]

​

 

[mrproper]

No, the 68 year old Professor Richard Dawkins (Fellow of the Royal Society, and Fellow of the Royal Society of Literature) retired from Oxford University in 2008 and then went on to write the most excellent book, "The Greatest Show on Earth: The Evidence for Evolution", which has since become a #1 Bestseller in the UK, Ireland, Canada and Australia.

[YOUTUBE]I-QWv_0Mjq0[/YOUTUBE]

That was my other option

I will look forward to reading it, but now I'm a but busy and under budget . And I hope he does more of his pioneering in science education and critical thinking, because sincerely, the country I live in, is going to one hell or another pretty quick...