Final Theory Thread

[The Nightbird]

Since my previous theory threads, I think I'm at the point where I can sum up all I know about how loot is generated in a few easy rules and can share them with everyone. Other experienced miners will have different opinions so feel free to challenge or debate. One note before I start is to point out that if EU actually works as I theorize, then it is very different from a casino.

Personal loot:

There is a "loot pool", but only for your avatar. Every time you make an action, decay/ammo/bombs/etc are consumed, and when this happens, ~90% of the tt value goes into your personal loot pool. Whenever personal loot is generated by the system, it takes value from this pool, so obviously you cannot lose more than 10% nor gain more than 90% of tt spent.

However, since items you use up and loot you get might have markup paid by other players, the actual returns can be very different from the long term 90% tt return rate.

MA's gifts:
Of the 10% MA takes, occasionally, they give large prizes to random players to increase participation. This is the only way to go above the 90% tt return rate.

How EU Generates Claims:
As noted above, this doesn't increase your % tt return rate, but it does let you control the wild % return swings while behaving in a random manner.

There are many factors that affect mining claims that you can't control, ex: someone mined there recently, MA decided that now is a low loot period for everyone, etc, so here are the things that you can do:

1. run 110 meters between bombs, no need to overlap yourself

2. switch location with you get 20 nrfs in a row.

But these are obvious, so here is something different that you can try. EU generates loot in a fairly complex way, -periods of good and bad loots, and each loot is different - but there is a simple pattern within it that you can discover if you look hard.

A good way to visualize how I think loot is generated is the line displayed by a heart beat monitor. Every period of time, it pulses, and the line takes a distinct shape, and is flat for the rest of the time. To put that into loot terms, whenever you ask the server for loot, it checks the current height of the heart beat line, and if it is not 0, loot is generated (using another means).

How is this useful? If you know the time between beats, you can improve your chances of getting non-zero loot.

I'll end this thread with a way you can all test this for yourselves.

So, what is the current time between beats? My best estimate is 5.4545... seconds.

The way I track the time passed is by using a simple metronome, set to 4 beats, 44 beats per minute, so for every 4 beats 5.45 seconds pass. I like to use a visual metronome (google), it goes 1, 2, 3, 4, 1, 2, ... so it is easy to tell when to drop a bomb.

Play with this yourself, remember to run far enough, and you'll see that sometimes, none of the numbers give out loot, sometimes 3 of them do, and sometimes only one number does... but when only one number does, you know exactly how long to wait before dropping the next bomb.


I picked this first ever mining event to share this so everyone who wants to can try it out. Enjoy!

P.S. This is as I've said all from personal experience, so quite possibly, my explanation is wrong in some way. What really matters is that it works for me, and you can judge for yourselves now.

 

[J. Mandrake]

Hah! I replied! I too, will edit later, but I think I understood the gist of your post.

EDITING: That is amazingly... possible. I like the heart monitor reference. I was going to trade with it, but I guess I'll deposit later this week. I suppose I can contribute a few bombs. How would be the best way to record finds without disrupting your momentum?

 

[Legion]

I dont gully agree with you here

I do think there is sort of a personal loot pool, but it only keeps track of how much you spend so you dont overspend, and if you do it will repay you after a while.

I do believe there are other lootpools though aswell. As MA has said EU is dynamic and thus i belive that from the actions other ppl make loot and areas etc change. As i explained in the perception thread and on some other posts i belive there is sort of a biorythm to everything in eu and this is also why lower maturity mobs hof bigger more often as they are hunted more which drives up the biorythm on them and so on.

 

[Parlog]

I dont gully agree with you here

I do think there is sort of a personal loot pool, but it only keeps track of how much you spend so you dont overspend, and if you do it will repay you after a while.

I do believe there are other lootpools though aswell. As MA has said EU is dynamic and thus i belive that from the actions other ppl make loot and areas etc change. As i explained in the perception thread and on some other posts i belive there is sort of a biorythm to everything in eu and this is also why lower maturity mobs hof bigger more often as they are hunted more which drives up the biorythm on them and so on.

Since my previous theory threads, I think I'm at the point where I can sum up all I know about how loot is generated in a few easy rules and can share them with everyone. Other experienced miners will have different opinions so feel free to challenge or debate. One note before I start is to point out that if EU actually works as I theorize, then it is very different from a casino.

Personal loot:

There is a "loot pool", but only for your avatar. Every time you make an action, decay/ammo/bombs/etc are consumed, and when this happens, ~90% of the tt value goes into your personal loot pool. Whenever personal loot is generated by the system, it takes value from this pool, so obviously you cannot lose more than 10% nor gain more than 90% of tt spent.

However, since items you use up and loot you get might have markup paid by other players, the actual returns can be very different from the long term 90% tt return rate.

MA's gifts:
Of the 10% MA takes, occasionally, they give large prizes to random players to increase participation. This is the only way to go above the 90% tt return rate.

How EU Generates Claims:
As noted above, this doesn't increase your % tt return rate, but it does let you control the wild % return swings from behaving in a random manner.

...yawn, it's past midnight, I'll edit this post later, don't reply until then

you guys better hurry it seems that mining will face a big change soon. But i think a fuse of both posts content is somewhere near the truth...

 

[Zacariaz]

But I have to reply.
You talk about "all you know", but the reality is that you don't actually know anything and nor do I. I am offended by such arrogance

 

[Legion]

you guys better hurry it seems that mining will face a big change soon. But i think a fuse of both posts content is somewhere near the truth...

why do you think it will change?

 

[Matho]

What about big hits of newcomers?

 

[Parlog]

we saw finders beeing new, we saw finders get common and after the introduction of a new finder-generation the old ones seem to slowly die out (examples are 212-214, first generation finders). Assumption: If the droprate of Zanderium and Adomasite gets equal to that of Rugaritz, the higher Ziplex-finders would get ultrarare.

With that background read my posts in here:

https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/tools/145982-emine-ofs-l.html

i want to point out this all is an assumption, the whole thing is "dynamic" still i hope for a good discussion.

@matho

thats simple they are promotion...

 

[CycoKick]

Wouldnt make alot of sense with my losses over time..

Even with taking markup and efficieny of items into the equasion.

 

[fnalig]

If This Theory are true. Keep your eyes open, cause that would mean ive been building up for a 500 K + ATH during last year

 

[The Nightbird]

Finished the post, I'll reply to questions and comments when I can.

 

[Skippie]

the problem with loot theories is always the same thing. ppl make assumptions about their experience in a random system and then proclaim that experience as proof of something they can never prove.

i.e. there is a personal loot pool per avatar. perception means loot. if i get 95% return on my first 10 clicks the crafting run will be an overall success. yada yada. there are almost more loot theories than there are participants in eu.

not trying to belittle your post, but i don't see any evidence of anything, simply an explanation of one person's experience. finding something that works for you and going forth with it as long as it works has always been the best overall loot theory.

 

[The Nightbird]

the problem with loot theories is always the same thing. ppl make assumptions about their experience in a random system and then proclaim that experience as proof of something they can never prove.

i.e. there is a personal loot pool per avatar. perception means loot. if i get 95% return on my first 10 clicks the crafting run will be an overall success. yada yada. there are almost more loot theories than there are participants in eu.

not trying to belittle your post, but i don't see any evidence of anything, simply an explanation of one person's experience. finding something that works for you and going forth with it as long as it works has always been the best overall loot theory.

Read to the end The only wall the method I shared hits is about 85-95% tt returns most runs.

 

[The Nightbird]

Mmmm, guess all the miners are too busy mining than to read this now, darn the timing Post if this works or doesn't work for you, though try a few hundred drops at least please.

 

[The Nightbird]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the reason there aren't replies is because everyone is trying it out. If so, great. I'll bump this a few times for more exposure and more testers.

 

[J. Mandrake]

I'll try this, I can do about 100 drops tonight, try to narrow in on the magic number. My guess? It is pi!

EDIT: As not to spam your thread, I will contact you through a PM, if you think it is a valid question, feel free to post the answer.

Also, a potential flaw: if it is intentional (i.e. a global pulse, all players are effected,) then we would need to find the exact moment the "pulse" reaches its peak, and sync the metronome with that. Or are you implying that the count is reset, per player, each time the loot funcition is activated (in this case, bomb drop)?

 

[The Nightbird]

sure thing;

pm:
Now, you say we need to run the full 110 meters. But, at 5.45 seconds, that is hard. So do you mean we run for intervals of the "magic number," or that we have to drop every four ticks? And also, remember to account for lag, so I would drop about half a tick earlier.

You don't need to run the full 110 meters, I usually run far less, but I don't recommend it to anyone since it makes return more variable (which I don't care about, I just want to drop fast). Also, you're right about the running part, any interval will do since it repeats every 5.45 seconds. You don't need to account for lag, since it all cancels out in the end, just keep track of when you click that drop button

Oh, I'm not sure whether you're running and stopping, so this might not apply, but you don't need to run for a certain amount of time and then stop. The clock is always ticking, regardless of what you do, so leave that metronome on! All I'd like you to try is dropping on the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4 as the metronome runs and to see if there is a pattern... i.e. a number gives out deposits more frequently than other numbers. The other stuff I wrote is only to keep people from only focusing on the time and forgetting the basics, bombing far enough apart.

 

[J. Mandrake]

sure thing;

pm:
Now, you say we need to run the full 110 meters. But, at 5.45 seconds, that is hard. So do you mean we run for intervals of the "magic number," or that we have to drop every four ticks? And also, remember to account for lag, so I would drop about half a tick earlier.

You don't need to run the full 110 meters, I usually run far less, but I don't recommend it to anyone since it makes return more variable (which I don't care about, I just want to drop fast). Also, you're right about the running part, any interval will do since it repeats every 5.45 seconds. You don't need to account for lag, since it all cancels out in the end, just keep track of when you click that drop button

Good to know, especially that last bit Please see the edit on my previous post.

 

[The Nightbird]

Also, a potential flaw: if it is intentional (i.e. a global pulse, all players are effected,) then we would need to find the exact moment the "pulse" reaches its peak, and sync the metronome with that. Or are you implying that the count is reset, per player, each time the loot funcition is activated (in this case, bomb drop)?

The count never resets, it is always on in the background. By running the metronome, you are synced to the pulse of the server, but you don't know where it peaks, 1, 2, 3, or 4. And, due to good and bad periods, there are times when more than one number works, and times when none works, but well, just try it out. Experience beats explanations.

 

[J. Mandrake]

The count never resets, it is always on in the background. By running the metronome, you are synced to the pulse of the server, but you don't know where it peaks, 1, 2, 3, or 4. And, due to good and bad periods, there are times when more than one number works, and times when none works, but well, just try it out. Experience beats explanations.

The problem with the "just try it out" method is that it is expensive What worries me is that if it is always on, findng the right number could cause you to hit the low point every time. So really, depending on the length of the pulse (I figure it to be exponential up and down) hitting it dead on will get an NRF spree. But I will try this out in y own way, give me a little bit to figure something out.

P.S. As I typed this, I got an idea. I'll bbl with results.

 

[J. Mandrake]

Okay, haven't had enough time to gather results, but seeing as you are off now, here are my thoughts (I'm not smart enough to figure all of this out myself )

Globals come in waves. I think we are all agreement on that, there are surges of purple. The amplitude and wavelength of these global pulses vary randomly, however, they are always in proportion to each other. Sometimes, there will be two small, seemlingly isolated globals far apart from each other. However, these are both part of the same pulse. This is why it isn't always a global/HoF or NRF, we have loots in between on the lower periods of pulses(though it would explain the existance of NRFs under this system, seeing as there are some flat periods.)

With this in mind (the key words in that last paragraph are random and proportional,) it is not posible to predict pefectly when to drop a bomb to consistently hit a find. However, my plan would work like this. When you see the global surge starts coming, start the metrinome at the "magic number" (when we find that, we will be moving in the right direction,) drop a bomb, and run all at the same time. Drop a bomb at certain intervals of said number of BPM that match the range of your finder. Now, the reason for this "magic number" is that, as Nightbird theorized, part of your lootpool is personal, and follows a more regular interval, with a generally lower amplitude. Therefore, it is easier to predict. (The reason for this would be that a regular pulse provides MA with an easier amount of profit to estimate, and randomization would lead to imbalance in personal lootpools.)

So how can we find the magic number to the beat? Simple, actually. Well, as simple as figuring out a game's engine works gets We'd need 4-5 people for this. One person who has put in lots of money, and gotten next to none back (this extreme could be rigged, deposit 20 USD and fire it off in the ring. I think only decay and ammo count towards this.) Next, a few people who have different returns, one just above even, one as close to even as possible, and one just below even. Finally (this is the tricky one) find someone without lots of money looted and little put in (read as: Noob HoFer.) The process would work like smoothing down a piece of wood with different grains of sandpaper. The first one would be someone with a large personal loot pool. Their pulses should be of a longer, taller wave. This will get us an in the ballpark estimate. The middle few would help us refine the estimate, and the last one would get us dead on. The last one should have a pulse with both a short amplitude and wavelength. If we hit the mark, then we'll know what exactly is right.

Thanks for reading this, hopefully we can get a few people together and test this thing out. MA might have to change the loot system if we figure it out (like last time) and it sure as shit can't get worse for the average player (read as: we'll quit if you bleed us any drier.)

 

[Legion]

Globals come in waves. I think we are all agreement on that, there are surges of purple. The amplitude and wavelength of these global pulses vary randomly, however, they are always in proportion to each other. Sometimes, there will be two small, seemlingly isolated globals far apart from each other. However, these are both part of the same pulse. This is why it isn't always a global/HoF or NRF, we have loots in between on the lower periods of pulses(though it would explain the existance of NRFs under this system, seeing as there are some flat periods.)

With this in mind (the key words in that last paragraph are random and proportional,) it is not posible to predict pefectly when to drop a bomb to consistently hit a find.

Well partially true, it's not actually a wave, it's just a regular timer sort of and i could show you how it works but then MA would just change it AGAIN So i wont show it for that reason. But i have cracked it again yes again And i can sometimes follow it. But MA's new timer is exceptionally well thought out and also the timer changes it's center point so you never really can be sure what map to use for it's center point, which can make it a paaain to track. But once i have a certain thing i can often track it quite well. Like last night i knew exactly where the minute timer were at and also at roughly what angle it had.

And i dont really belive in this theory, not that it defines if you get a hit or not atleast, what it can do is to make you get more of a certain value perhaps. But to get an actuall find you just have to follow the vein.

 

[The Nightbird]

And i dont really belive in this theory, not that it defines if you get a hit or not atleast, what it can do is to make you get more of a certain value perhaps. But to get an actuall find you just have to follow the vein.

Legion, the whole point of this thread was that you can set your faith aside and test it. You can choose to "disbelieve" it if you want but come visit once in a while to see if others turn up any results.

J. Mandrake, how do you know when a global is due to personal losses or not? I work on the basis that so called good periods when lots of people global are just times when MA allow people to recover their losses. Also, you don't know when to drop the bomb anyways from the messages alone. There is lag between dropping the bomb and the mining result, and lag between the server sending out the result and people receiving it. The only time you can be certain of is the time when you click drop, because you can't even predict when EU's server receives your request to drop.

Keep it simple, run 110 meters, drop on 1, run, drop on 1, run, drop on 2, run, drop on 2, etc, and in eight bombs you'll have a good idea what number to drop on next.

Lastly, losses from experimenting. Remember, 1, you won't lose unless I am right and this theory right but it is applied incorrectly so you get more misses than normal, and 2, the best theory in the world won't help you if you mine where someone else carpet bombed 5 minutes ago so you still need to find a fresh area and other rules a miner always should follow.

 

[J. Mandrake]

NOW I see what you mean witht he metrenome, Nightbird. I think I misunderstood your orginal theory. I will be back later with results, hopefully.

 

[Tree-doctor]

my ultimate and final theorie :

 

[J. Mandrake]

Hulyss, I have no idea what those images mean. I've read through them, still don't get it. Could you try to explain them in a post?

 

[The Nightbird]

Hulyss's images summarize what most people feels about how EU works in a very complicated way, but the problem is we can't test it nor put to work.

 

[Tree-doctor]

Yea im sorry if my theorie is complicated. But if u read it correctly (like all little math problems) and take time u will understand easily what it mean

 

[Legion]

my ultimate and final theorie :

more or less exactly how i think it works, but the actuall loot part i dont agree with. Every area and mobtype has it's own sinuscurve aswell, and then there is the timer.

 

[Tree-doctor]

I though about a timer too since sometimes. I though it was a MA automat or human who regulated the X factor (in a timer form lookalike). But When we see the tittle of the game (Project Entropia) i assume this factor is mabe linked to the player activity > automatisation. I also have a sheet more focused on players.


About the timer, mabe it "open" more loot at certain times of the day, based on player activity ..