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Final Theory Thread

I cant understand why I read these threads, "Final mining theory"..
I think this 5.45 second rule is taken completely out of the blue and has no significance what so ever...

I liked your text the first part. Run 110 meters between bombs. Since many miners are too lazy to wait that long, my theory is that Nonoverlapping mining can yield the best return and with MU even profit.

I liked a thread with noodle and some other guys who actually tried to do statistically valid tests with p-values and standard deviation..

Those home made hunch-theories are just that. But again, that is just my theory..

I dont know where I should mine or when but I still like some areas and domes better than others.. My theory is that it is the human mind that try to see a pattern in "complete randomness".

I love the miningsystem, it seems to be good days and periods and bad days both for the individual and the whole community, so I guess it is not complete randomness, just too darn tricky to find out..
 
Small change today it seems, 5.45sec didn't work, 5.33 does.
4x45 for those testing
 
Tricity said:
nope it says 90% in the long run and that following it may decrease the number of 0 loots.
but anyways, i agree with some of nightbirs observations as i experience similar things BUT the thing.. the fact is YOU CANNNOT WIN AGAINST THE HOUSE so the whole discussion is pointles. If u win big 1 day MA will collect their money the other. .
Click to expand...

I think you amongst many MANY others don't understand the genius of the system. MA makes money regardless, they can ATH every single player, as loong as they dont flood the market (as long as players dont sell their loot to the TT). The genius is this, once a deposit is made, the cash never leaves MA's pocket ever again, and here is why.

Say u deposit 200$= 2000PED, play and get loot, you chip out. Your total loot/equipment/skills are worth 3000PED (you did good). In order for you to get your $$$ you need to actually sell your stuff to another player, maning that someone in the world will put in the 300$ that you are taking out.

So basically what we have here is an ever-filling jar of money, and now they have a banking licence> start making sense? They have people depositing into the game, and that cash basically never leaves, even if players do, and they use this cash to create loans, and generate interest. Add the % fees for depositing and withdrawals and you can see MA makes a bundle.


How is this relevant to this thread? Pulses may work, or they may not, it is entirely possible because it is not against MA's profit to give players loot. They are only increasing the net value of the virtual assets by creating more sellable matter. New players and old alike will deposit and buy this stuff, and so forth. So is loot random? Probably not, since if a market gets flooded, people wil TT a good, and that DOES cost MA money, so they invent new items that use materials that are not used often. To give an example, Root acid. A worthless good, found lots, but mostly sold to TT. What do they do? They create a whole new line of eMine goods, most of which use Root acid to make. This will prefent ppl selling to TT and theyr cashbox fills up faster once again.....


I know i could have organised my ramble a bit more, but they are genius :) The house always wins, even if they give everyone a simultaneus globel. Once the money is put in, it never leaves:eek:
 
ok, i decided to rewrite it. first i dont know spike how ur post relates to mine.

ive never said there r no regularities, im just saying there is no way to constistently profit in this game cos as u noticed it nicely urself that would lead to flooding of the market if every1 could ATH or profit consistently (which i write more on in a second), but I think nightbird explained it to me and he was not implying he found a way to profit but just to sort of lessen the swings in loot intake.

u r right spike, it is a very nice mechanism they got in place and it probably works more or less like u said it works however u cant have cake and eat it. because, as u claim and i agree with ,they dont want ppl to tt stuff (as this is actually the hard cash that they need to give back in case the plug is pulled out and it devoids them of making other players put some new cash in to pay for the markup of these things), they cannot let too many players win therefore it is not possible to sonsitently win. the exceptions might be uber players who loot uber stuff or avas meant to be advertising entropia. i dont have time to write about it now and show it in a broader context but ill try later on if u need some more clarification from me as i know i didnt say too much and what i did was quite chaotic cos i am short on time atm.
 
Last edited:
Spike nails it!...

Spike669 said:
I think you amongst many MANY others don't understand the genius of the system. MA makes money regardless, they can ATH every single player, as loong as they dont flood the market (as long as players dont sell their loot to the TT). The genius is this, once a deposit is made, the cash never leaves MA's pocket ever again, and here is why.

So basically what we have here is an ever-filling jar of money, and now they have a banking licence> start making sense? They have people depositing into the game, and that cash basically never leaves, even if players do, and they use this cash to create loans, and generate interest. Add the % fees for depositing and withdrawals and you can see MA makes a bundle.

How is this relevant to this thread? Pulses may work, or they may not, it is entirely possible because it is not against MA's profit to give players loot.

I know i could have organised my ramble a bit more, but they are genius :) The house always wins, even if they give everyone a simultaneus globel. Once the money is put in, it never leaves:eek:
Click to expand...

Kudos and big +++++rep to you Spike...:cool:

That is eaxctly it how the ingame economy has grown to 350+million dollars...and continues to grow and it's eactly why they don't
"NEED"
to practice or even conceive of any the insane machevelian manipulations...
detailed in this forum with a multitude of plausible and possible logics... that can't be verified other than with more specualtions...
The final theory is... there is no theory​
...

Great work Spike...:cool: the whole community needs to read this...:wtg:
 
Ive started with ining like 1 month ago and in this 1 month i lost like 1k peds in mining...but finally i got my first global today..its a small size (Cave Sap, XIII, 53 Ped)
I think that i had very bad luck because i know some noobs that they made global in the first mining week...I think that the loots arent random...
Well...Nice post man
 
Too lazy to write a theory atm, so I just give some observations from my
miningexperience, and in lootsystem in general, in a random order.
(Not sure if stuff has changed last months, I haven't really been active
since december...)

1. Doesn't matter that much if area has been mined or not, I have similar
ROI anyways. Imo, the system use spawnpoints similar to mobs, so a
area can still be "good". Accidental dropping of bombs and probes has
convienced me about this...
2. Doesn't matter what technique I use in mining, my ROI is similar in any
kind of technique.
3. I have way too low skills probably... :D ;)
4. The progress of prof stands has influence in the outcome.
5. System to build up for the lootpayout, is based on values in a points-system,
rather than values based on pec spent. (A pointvalue can *never* be
higher than 100% of pec spent, but it can for sure be lower... ;))
6. System use a very complex mathematic to calculate things (if we look
at it for every single parameter involved), but is effectively simplified
by using dynamic coding.
This is also one of the reasons why they so often say that "EU is dynamic"... ;)
Some avatar- and equipmentvalues are updated when items are equiped,
and not in real time.
7. System use "waves" (or whatever shape it has) to payout the basic
loot, but also to payout the different boostloots. This is built up and
created in a individual level.
System use similar "waves" for the general boostsystem (think multiplier
here), and when we are at the right and rare type of individual peak,
and hit the perfect general peak, we get a really big loot. Otherwise we
get better loot, but not close to what it could have been. ;)

Well, guess I have a lot more, but as I said, too lazy to write it down....:silly2:
 
shoti said:
I can proove that click is important and u really dont need to bother with lag. You will get what u "deserve" at the moment.

I was bombing CND lately and drop bomb, get some lag,then probe again get some lag+freeze, then my ava run few meters more. Then i get critical from mob and die, and when blue skull apear i received loot window with two consecutive globals (i was dead already and yelow swirles surround my dead body) Thats proove the server remebers time action were taken even if your connection or computer can't follow ii in real time.

I hope that help u guys
Click to expand...

Well done, I was wondering when someone would find that. Yip the time of a client action is sent to the server in order to combat lag and the only place that the client can get that data is from the client PCs real time clock.

Mess with the clock, and you mess with that sync...
 
Joat said:
Too lazy to write a theory atm, so I just give some observations from my
miningexperience, and in lootsystem in general, in a random order.
(Not sure if stuff has changed last months, I haven't really been active
since december...)

1. Doesn't matter that much if area has been mined or not, I have similar
ROI anyways. Imo, the system use spawnpoints similar to mobs, so a
area can still be "good". Accidental dropping of bombs and probes has
convienced me about this...
2. Doesn't matter what technique I use in mining, my ROI is similar in any
kind of technique.
3. I have way too low skills probably... :D ;)
4. The progress of prof stands has influence in the outcome.
5. System to build up for the lootpayout, is based on values in a points-system,
rather than values based on pec spent. (A pointvalue can *never* be
higher than 100% of pec spent, but it can for sure be lower... ;))
6. System use a very complex mathematic to calculate things (if we look
at it for every single parameter involved), but is effectively simplified
by using dynamic coding.
This is also one of the reasons why they so often say that "EU is dynamic"... ;)
Some avatar- and equipmentvalues are updated when items are equiped,
and not in real time.
7. System use "waves" (or whatever shape it has) to payout the basic
loot, but also to payout the different boostloots. This is built up and
created in a individual level.
System use similar "waves" for the general boostsystem (think multiplier
here), and when we are at the right and rare type of individual peak,
and hit the perfect general peak, we get a really big loot. Otherwise we
get better loot, but not close to what it could have been. ;)

Well, guess I have a lot more, but as I said, too lazy to write it down....:silly2:
Click to expand...

Break the waveform and you break the game, time is related to distance is related back to time, its the same thing really.
 
The Nightbird said:
Small change today it seems, 5.45sec didn't work, 5.33 does.
4x45 for those testing
Click to expand...

LOL, I may be a little bit mad in saying this but LOL ...... m8

WOW im looking at the timers that you are using, they look like distances to me ...... 5.45*10 = 54.5 5.33*10 = 53... Those numbers look mighty familiar.

If you really want to abuse this, search for / code an application that alters your realtime clock, so that it only updates at say for example 5.45 second intervals, a coder could do this and the nice thing is, I don't think that it is ban able as you are using a system that is based on your OS not the client itself. It will create havoc ingame though, just alter your real time clock once and see what the client does.
 
R4tt3xx said:
Break the waveform and you break the game, time is related to distance is related back to time, its the same thing really.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I guess time has always been a indicator for some stuff in PE/EU/PC. ;)
Remember in 2003-2004, when we could predict globals in area N of Argus,
with a precision of minutes. It has been developed and refined, but
in basics, time is still importent.
But I guess for a player that don't (legally) "exploit" some values in
the avatars progress and stats, it gonna be losses and not profit when
looking back at the average for some years ... ;) (I only consider pure
tt-value in ROI here).
 
ROI - :laugh:, please stop using this word when referring to this game or I'll wet my pants again.
 
Whoops, meant to post here more often. Time is not distance and is not time again. Every time you stop to extract something, the time gets messed up, when you run up or down hills, your speed changes and time is messed up again, but not distance. This is should have been very obvious guys, I expected better from fellow theorists :/

Anyways, it's been more than enough time to test this, has anyone succeeded/failed?
 
Been playing around with new rhythms since the old one stopped working well. 10.9 seconds is what I have now. It's just double my old number but it works a lot better, at least for today.
 
It is going to keep on changing, I wish you all luck in keeping up with it.
 
The Nightbird said:
Been playing around with new rhythms since the old one stopped working well. 10.9 seconds is what I have now. It's just double my old number but it works a lot better, at least for today.
Click to expand...

Entropia tracker shows that last week minig "overall" in value is smaler by almost 1/2 (hmm looks like miners wait till end of event) so maybe thats why u need make your hit cycles twice longer to get some nice claims?
 
As with all loot theories there is no real way to prove or disprove it, as we all get differing results, and some of us will interpret the results as proving the theory and some will interpret the results as disproving it.

I have come up with a number of ideas over my time in EU as they "fitted" in with what was going on, only to abandon them at a (sometimes much) later date as they showed them self to be the equivalent of an optical illusion.

Someone said the damage a weapon does is evenly distributed between the min and the max damage.
They said this meant that the average damage done is the average of the min and max damage.
It's easy to go out and shoot, noting the damage. When one plots the damage done it's seen that this is true, and that the average damage done is the average as calculated from min & max.
This theory I take to be fact, as I can test it. When I test it my results agree with the theory 100%

Others have done tests, and shown that a maxed BP will give a successful craft 42% of the time. This I can also test. If I was to do so, I think I would get the same result.

Loot theories I tend to ignore, as when I test them I find that I get a small correlation between the theory and my personal results.

So:

It would not surprise me if each avi has a personal, unique, "loot algorithm" that is generated at time of avi creation. As long as MA set it up so that the overall "average" of the numerous algorithms is "profit for MA" with a master checking system "if we can't afford it do not pay it," this would, in theory, work.
This would explain why each and every person has their own ideas on loot, and how it works, for the simple reason that is is coded differently for each and every person.
Of course this is a loot theory, and as such meets my original statement regarding the impossibility of proof. As such I am not claiming "this is now it works" just stating that "it could work this way" an no one could "prove or disprove it."

I tend to agree with MA: "It's dynamic".
 
Dorsai said:
Loot theories I tend to ignore, as when I test them I find that I get a small correlation between the theory and my personal results.

So:

It would not surprise me if each avi has a personal, unique, "loot algorithm" that is generated at time of avi creation. As long as MA set it up so that the overall "average" of the numerous algorithms is "profit for MA" with a master checking system "if we can't afford it do not pay it," this would, in theory, work.
This would explain why each and every person has their own ideas on loot, and how it works, for the simple reason that is is coded differently for each and every person.
Of course this is a loot theory, and as such meets my original statement regarding the impossibility of proof. As such I am not claiming "this is now it works" just stating that "it could work this way" an no one could "prove or disprove it."

I tend to agree with MA: "It's dynamic".
Click to expand...

Why not test it :) It's nice to theorize, but I think what I've posted here is precise enough for everyone to test, and everyone has an opportunity to prove or disprove it. If everyone says it doesn't work, then we can work from there, but I have a few things in mind that gives me some confidence it will work.
 
The Nightbird said:
sure thing;

You don't need to run the full 110 meters, I usually run far less, but I don't recommend it to anyone since it makes return more variable (which I don't care about, I just want to drop fast). Also, you're right about the running part, any interval will do since it repeats every 5.45 seconds. You don't need to account for lag, since it all cancels out in the end, just keep track of when you click that drop button :)
Click to expand...

Ok i'm confused with this paragraph.

Presumably your working on a mining theory so you can maximise your returns and improve your profit.

Why then do you say u usualy run far less and don't recomend it to anyone as it makes the returns more variable?
Then go on to clarify that your prepared to accept more variable returns just because you want to drop fast?

Why do you want to drop fast and if your theory works then why would you compromise your theroy just to drop bombs faster and with the possiblity
of lower returns?

Why don't you care?

I'm just trying to get an understanding of why you go to all the trouble of making/posting a theory on mining.

You very nicely offer your findings to the community and i would think you hope for us to take the theory seriously,while at the same time you seem to be quite blase in putting your own theory into practise.
 
LoTeK said:
Ok i'm confused with this paragraph.

Presumably your working on a mining theory so you can maximise your returns and improve your profit.

Why then do you say u usualy run far less and don't recomend it to anyone as it makes the returns more variable?
Then go on to clarify that your prepared to accept more variable returns just because you want to drop fast?

Why do you want to drop fast and if your theory works then why would you compromise your theroy just to drop bombs faster and with the possiblity
of lower returns?

Why don't you care?

I'm just trying to get an understanding of why you go to all the trouble of making/posting a theory on mining.

You very nicely offer your findings to the community and i would think you hope for us to take the theory seriously,while at the same time you seem to be quite blase in putting your own theory into practise.
Click to expand...

Good question, answered in first post :)
 
If it's because you must drop on the same beat and the gap is 5.4545,then why not drop every 10.909 then you'd still be short of 110m and overlapping but closer to it.

you'd still be on the pulse?
 
The weirdness mentioned in a previous post seems to be over, everything is back to normal (possibly only for me though).
 
I could drop every

16.363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636
3636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636
363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636
363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636
363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636

seconds, right? Since 5.45454545454545454545 * 3 = 16.36363636 so i'd still be on beat, no?
 
AuroricShiva said:
I could drop every

16.363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636
3636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636
363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636
363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636
363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636363636

seconds, right? Since 5.45454545454545454545 * 3 = 16.36363636 so i'd still be on beat, no?
Click to expand...

I think that is the point, yes.
 
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