Loot system cracked!?

Mr Trayles

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I'm sorry, but you see, there are a few rich people in this world. Not many, a few only. A few that are above thousands of less rich people. You might think these people somehow got luck stroken, found out a few of the factors required to get rich, or found out all of the factors of getting rich?

Luck for some, yes. Investing for others, definetely. But a method to the loot system that may be formulated out, perhaps to be devulged to all, I doubt.

There are means here and there that can be used to make one better than others with their returns, but nothing that could be life changing. If you want to be rich, I believe that you will need to have much capitol to invest or the four leaf clover in your pocket.

However, I have never said no to looking at a decent hypothesis, study, and conclusion. Best of luck.
 

Satans

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So is this dependent only on the mob? Area or avatar are not important at all?

Only on mob I guess...

And you say that if you continue to sample hunting runs on the same mob, in time the return will show a slight increase?

Exactly..
I've had numerous bad runs on argo's and feff's, after someone had an uber HOF..

My theory is, that every mob has it's own loot pool, filled with the help of each EU colonist's ammo..

My soc m8 tested one theory on feffs...
Whenever someone had a global on a certain maturity, he started to hunt other maturities... thus, he had several globals in a short period of time.
I tested it too, and it seemed to kind of work..
I started to think, that each maturity, has it's own loot pool...

Take for example all those daily uber HOF's on certain mobs, like argo's, drones, feffs, ambu's.... and so on..

You can easily predict when someone will hit an uber on a certain mob..
When I look at HOF list, and I see that no one has had an HOF on (let's say, trox), then I just know that someone will get an uber on trox soon..
When I go to hunt some trox, loot seems normal, like always, but when someone get's that uber.. loot just starts to suck badly..
And I've noticed that lots of times through my few years of EU life..


This explains why there were almost no globals on chirpies and fuga's... (there were like 2 globals in all EU history ? idk )

I.E
- These new mobs that were added (that whale mutant whore and giant tree thingy) ? ... everyone seems to HOF a lot on them .. right ? ..
Why ? .. because a lot of people cycle PED's on them ! :) And someone just clears the loot pool from time to time...

It's all obvious :D


p.s
My English knowledge ain't that good, so expressing my thoughts and trying to make a point is hard for me
:D
 

mrproper

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Exactly..
I've had numerous bad runs on argo's and feff's, after someone had an uber HOF..

My theory is, that every mob has it's own loot pool, filled with the help of each EU colonist's ammo..
But I can explain that by offering the personal loot pool theory. If you are declining in your tt value (as the system is designed), you will increase the chance of getting a bigger loot that will bring you up to a tie-even level, sometimes lower, sometimes higher.

So my theory is that if you empty your pockets, loot will come back some time in the future to cover some of the loss.

In this way, there is no need to code for area pools, mob pool, swimming pool or any kind of pool. It's simple, start losing ped, and from time to time some of it will drop back in big bunches, everyone is happy.

Whenever someone had a global on a certain maturity, he started to hunt other maturities... thus, he had several globals in a short period of time.
I tested it too, and it seemed to kind of work..
I started to think, that each maturity, has it's own loot pool...
And did he manage to always get more loot than ammo he spent?
 

Lavawalker

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I'm sorry, but you see, there are a few rich people in this world. Not many, a few only. A few that are above thousands of less rich people. You might think these people somehow got luck stroken, found out a few of the factors required to get rich, or found out all of the factors of getting rich?

But thanks for telling us you don't care and you don't want to try to get better at this complex game. We love it you won't whine when other people will do better than you, on account of your activity.

Well that is a relatively correct ratio if comparing figures in the real world global economy.

2008 stats were:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/25/richlists.globaleconomy

The number of dollar millionaires around the world increased by 6% last year, defying the impact of the credit crunch, with the fastest growth in the emerging economies of India, China and Brazil.

There are now 10.1 million people worth more than $1m (£508,000) excluding the value of their main homes, according to the latest World Wealth Report from Merrill Lynch and the consultancy Capgemini.

The number of super-rich - defined as people with more than $30m - increased by 8.8% to 103,320.

2009 saw these figures rise quite significantly again.

As far as Entropia goes,
Well most of it is based on what people put through the system :)
Very few ever strike gifted luck on a significant level.

^^ That element only being there to drive the psychology of trying your luck without the service being deemed as primarily gambling.

A good sales pitch if you ask me and psychological motivator on many fronts surrounding money.

It is the blackboxing of how it works with veils of secrecy spiced with the player's power of assumption that does the rest in making Entropia's wheels go round.

That is why it is easy come and easy go buffered to be easy come again if you stick around long enough ... skilling up to the point where return rates eventually normalise to a greater & more consistent degree.

^^ Keeping in mind the amount of markup/taxes etc spent vs TT decayed to balance out your cost of participation in the Entropia economy vs everyone else being within tolerance levels to help with this consistency in return. (& whatever other layered rulesets such as economy item/resource management subsets, etc that impact on returns vs your funds being buffered by the accounting core for later release)

That is why skill and equipment suited for the challenge to suit your play style become important in the end.

There is my input as I have perceived the system to be.

And sure, a simple change in many of the hundreds of rulesets can have a great impact on results at any time post-reboot when MA chooses to make a change to them pre-reboot :)

Advise - What is your reason for playing in an RCE environment?

Go out and have fun to the level of affordability your comfortable with in Entropia, when you reach the right criteria the system will allocate what it owes back to you for having met this criteria. Entropia is long term and requires consistent financing to have real fun in. (In MMO gaming terms)

If your looking to make advances in profitability (or losses) that you can bank on without any smoke and screens or significant buffering of your funds for later release when ruleset requirements are met (ie. Can be calculated as 1+1=2 on the spot as you spend) in a less unstable/volatile (dynamic) environment (Calculate as you spend RCE mechanics & service provider development changes) then Entropia is by far the worst choice RCE alternative to do this in.

^^ No fanboi attachment to EU or AW - Some straight up advise.
Both RCE alternatives have their pros & cons.
 
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mrproper

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These new mobs that were added (that whale mutant whore and giant tree thingy) ? ... everyone seems to HOF a lot on them .. right ? ..
Why ?
... because they have high HP and will global more often? :rolleyes:
 

Satans

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But I can explain that by offering the personal loot pool theory. If you are declining in your tt value (as the system is designed), you will increase the chance of getting a bigger loot that will bring you up to a tie-even level, sometimes lower, sometimes higher.

So my theory is that if you empty your pockets, loot will come back some time in the future to cover some of the loss.

In this way, there is no need to code for area pools, mob pool, swimming pool or any kind of pool. It's simple, start losing ped, and from time to time some of it will drop back in big bunches, everyone is happy.


And did he manage to always get more loot than ammo he spent?

If your theory would be correct, then I would be filthy rich by now..
I've lost so much, and never got even 30% of all that back..

uhm, I don't know ... never asked him..
But if he had few globals on one run, then I guess that he did get back more than he spent..
 

mrproper

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If your theory would be correct, then I would be filthy rich by now..
I've lost so much, and never got even 30% of all that back..
Suppose I am correct.
Why would you have to be rich?
30% of what? Do you have an example?

few globals on one run,
Yeah, feffs do that. I can't argue here. I was once hunting and got a global every 50th mob, but the rest of them were no-looters, really really weird hunt, but in the end it was all leveled out.
 

mrproper

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Anyway, should I move this to another topic, or can I discuss this with someone willing to contribute?
Ok, how about this...

Since it's complex and hard to keep track of every data point, let's suppose I do this:
- decide on desired outcome of experiment
- propose testing methodology that is neutral biased towards confirmation or dismissal of desired experiment conclusion
- create sufficient test samples, should be a double-blind controlled methodology
- alternate randomly between the two test samples, with a predefined sequence
- add before and after sequences, to offer priming zones to ensure the experiment was stable
- discard the whole experiment, if one of the sequences failed one of the parameters required for significance and quality.


For example, I can compare two hunting setups, or two hunting mobs, or two somethings, and have them labeled A and B.

Then I would specify what A technically does, and what B does, using them in the same context.

Then I will create for example samples of 100 mobs, or 100 ped, or 100 minutes, or whatever, that can be used to test the experiment for quality and accuracy.

Then I would create an equal number of sequences, for example 5 As and 5Bs, and then randomize them by chance, or by binary counting, or by graycode. This means, I can have something like ABAABBABAB.

Then I would add to the end and the beginning of the sequence, 2 sequences of the same type, or of a different setup than A or B, that I consider is required to obtain a good and stable data collection process. For example CCABAABBABABCC.

If during the priming or main sequences, I detect for example a big loot that surpasses the return of a whole sequence, I can say that the whole process is compromised and should be restarted. Also, if the end priming sequence is completely different than the results of the first priming sequence, I have a compromised result.

If for example instead of completing the experiment, I decide to do something else in-between the sequences, the experiment is compromised.

At the end, I will present for example the priming and main 10 sequences, and offer simple unbiased statistical calculations on them. We can then all interpret the results as biased as we wish and form a conclusion, refraining from expanding that conclusion to ANY other case, other than the one tested in the experiment.

How does that sound?
 

Satans

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Suppose I am correct.
Why would you have to be rich?
30% of what? Do you have an example?

Because..

So my theory is that if you empty your pockets, loot will come back some time in the future to cover some of the loss.

you said that, if I empty my pockets, then a small part of the loot will come back to me in some time.. right?

Well, I've spent thousands of PED's in EU.. and I've never got back even 30% of all that..
In few words, I never profited. (even when using eco equips).

If I ever got back even half of what I've spent, then I would be rich :D
 

mrproper

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you said that, if I empty my pockets, then a small part of the loot will come back to me in some time.. right?

Well, I've spent thousands of PED's in EU.. and I've never got back even 30% of all that..
In few words, I never profited. (even when using eco equips).

If I ever got back even half of what I've spent, then I would be rich :D
Again, give an example of 30%. Did you deposit 100% of X PED, and now you have 30% of X PED left? Do you go out to hunt something and come back with less than 30% of the ammo? I would like to team up with you and see that, I find it extraordinary.

Did I give a specific timeframe for the loot to come back? One of my society members got a 10k hof, after months of nothing. He did his totals for the year, and he apparently lost 15ped per hour, the whole year, for the hours he has played. In the end, he was withing MA's desired play tax.

I did not say you should profit or something. You could, if you knew how. But you shouldn't lose tons either, unless you stumble upon a bug, or do something really stupid.
 

Satans

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Again, give an example of 30%. Did you deposit 100% of X PED, and now you have 30% of X PED left? Do you go out to hunt something and come back with less than 30% of the ammo? I would like to team up with you and see that, I find it extraordinary.

You got me all wrong :rolleyes:
I'm talking about all the losses I have made in these few years of my EU life.

I did not say you should profit or something. You could, if you knew how. But you shouldn't lose tons either, unless you stumble upon a bug, or do something really stupid.

I know how, but I always screw up at some point..

I've done many stupid things in EU, of which I'm not very proud of :D


I'm too tired for this .. :coffee:
GN,
 

Mkdesign

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Good luck figuring out a system that is being used by thousands of people at once, even semi-discreetly

Semi-discreetly since every draw above 50 PEDs is public for all your data mining needs. Well, semi-public since you don't have the PEC values :D



Let's look at it this way. No company would want to be indebted.
An easy solution is to have a completely player-fed pool, and having every draw be based on what is left in the pool, in such a way that the pool can't hold a negative number (a debt so to speak)


Even if you were to have some sort of algorithm predicting what the next draws are going to be, you would need a starting point (know the ammount held by the lootpool at a given time).
Not to mention inner info of how everything works
(What are the limits of a "lootpool" and how does one contribute to it?)


If you can't have direct access to the lootpool value, for the prediction method to stay accurate after some time, you would need a direct feed of what goes in and out, to update the lootpool value accordingly for the next draw

That is, a real-time log that reads:
Code:
avatar A shot gun G for a sum of 1 PED
avatar B shot gun G2 for a sum of 0,2 PED
/!\ avatar A called in to the loot generator
=> *algorithm proceeds with calculation* 
substracting 3 PED from the lootpool

And that is assuming loot is generated upon hitting the button "Loot" over a corpse.
If loot is, as some believe, generated upon spawn of a mob, what was messy gets even more nuts

If you were to find a way to abuse this, well.. uuuh
When you have the hypothetical lootpool value, if the algorithm is "forgiving" about rounding (eg. doesn't make too much of a difference if it's 200 000 PEDs or 210 000 PEDs) you could try and predict the future :)
You could conduct a study at Ithaca and end up with very rough values of how much money is spent per minute, how many corpses are looted per minute and so on..
Then proceed to compile your own little log, hoping it could show you about when the next big hit is due..

But you could've already done that long ago, just by taking a peek at Entropia Tracker's graphs :)

"Hmm.. a 20K Atrox Young October the 19th, a 16K Atrox Old November the 17th.
Today is 18th of December, there must be some 18k Atrox Mature lurking out there!"
And there is some truth in that.

I'm pretty sure most dashed to the end of this post or skipped it altogether (nothing to be ashamed of, it's pretty messy stuff and it's only one big guess)

In a nutshell, I'd keep this "cracking the loot system" in a little cozy corner of my brain to keep things interesting, but I wouldn't dare going too deep into it
 

mrproper

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Let's look at it this way. No company would want to be indebted

....

In a nutshell, I'd keep this "cracking the loot system" in a little cozy corner of my brain to keep things interesting, but I wouldn't dare going too deep into it
I'm afraid you misunderstood the topic.
 

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So my theory is that if you empty your pockets, loot will come back some time in the future to cover some of the loss.

Do it. :yay:

I am of the same mind as you about how the system works (generally). I just never had the (ferrum) nuts to empty my pockets. :ahh:

Keep logs! And before you start, make some predictions about how much you think you must loose and how long it will take to come back etc.

I also think that there is no crack that will allow a person to constantly profit (as in more tt value of loot than your tt cost to procure it). Perhaps some very rare gears give a slight reduction of the cost to participate, but I think that most differences in efficiency will only affect the time frame for payback.

I do think that tt profit was once possible due to capital seeding in the early days but that money is long gone now. (I suspect that the name change of PE to EU was around the time we drained the seed money).
 

Spinage

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On the topic of that experiment you wanted to do, I think I am reading it wrong, or it just wouldn't work.

From what I can see you will exclude certain data if it doesn't fit a predefined rule that you have chosen. There is no possible way you can use handpicked data to prove anything :(

The only valid way I can personally think of is:

You wouldn't have to discount runs with big loots (or hofs etc). You could simply do, as an example, 10 runs with an eco of X costing (example) 100 ped each. Then record these figures:

Median of all 10 runs
Mean of each individual run
Median Mean of all 10 runs
Lower quartile Median
Upper quartile Median
Range of lower to upper quartile Median.

Then do the same for another eco of Y costing the same ped (100 each). Then compare all these numbers.

A proper analysis could be done with these statistics, quite easily proving to a reasonable degree whether eco has a direct effect on loot output (whether or not personal loot pool exists).


The reason you see me talk about Median a lot when it comes to this particular theory, is simply because this is exactly the type of scenario where Median averages are more useful than the Mean... Take this quote from wikipedia:
The median can be used as a measure of location when a distribution is skewed, when end values are not known, or when one requires reduced importance to be attached to outliers

Or as I was taught at school: the median is used to analyse statistics in a scenario with an uneven distribution.

I think that applies to EU and this whole debate?

It's messy and not thought out completely because I didn't seriously consider doing it. If you want to do it, pm me or something and I can try and explain how it could be done 'properly'. If you want to do it, I'd prefer it just got done instead of more discussion now. I think we've reached a brick wall as far as theories go without evidence.

If you want, we could discuss (in pm or something else, coz these forum threads get... long) exactly what to record, how, and then analyse it afterwords together, which should give a fairer analysis, since as I think any bias we might have would cancel each others (assuming you believe in personal loot pool, because I don't).
 

mrproper

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On the topic of that experiment you wanted to do, I think I am reading it wrong, or it just wouldn't work.

From what I can see you will exclude certain data if it doesn't fit a predefined rule that you have chosen. There is no possible way you can use handpicked data to prove anything :(
I won't exclude certain data. If the conditions arise, I will exclude ALL data. That is, if the statistical analysis criteria (quoted in your post from earlier) may have problems with the variance in loot, then the whole data set is thrown out, or provided as flawed. We can't "fix" it to look good, we just can't get anything out of it and say it's probably the general behaviour.

The only valid way I can personally think of is:

It's messy and not thought out completely because I didn't seriously consider doing it. If you want to do it, pm me or something and I can try and explain how it could be done 'properly'. If you want to do it, I'd prefer it just got done instead of more discussion now. I think we've reached a brick wall as far as theories go without evidence.

You are describing how the data should be analyzed once it's collected. But first, I want to describe how we should collect the data in the first place. Because once the data is collected correctly, anyone can apply their methods as they see fit.

Please post on the forum any suggestions or questions because I wish to have everyone participate. If there's something that you don't want to share, or consider a possible exploitation of the system, we may discuss by PM until you consider it could be made public.
 

Legion

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One thing you can do is to define certain types of players. ie certain rulesets for how they play.

easiest to test would be mining.

you could then set up these players


  1. newbie, drops only bombs randomly
  2. newbie, drops only probes randomly
  3. newbie, drops both bombs and probes randomly
  4. line miner, drops only bombs in a straigh line
  5. line miner, drops only probes in a straigh line
  6. line miner, drops both bombs and probes in a line
  7. Skillgain miner, uses certain rules for skills to drop etc etc
You then compare the result for each type.
 

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Even if you did know how the system worked, having that knowledge would not benefit you. It's not exploitable.
 

Legion

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Even if you did know how the system worked, having that knowledge would not benefit you. It's not exploitable.

well using the system to your advantage and knowign how it works is not really exploiting it. It's made to be able to use it to your advantage.. IF you know how it works.
 

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I think the only way to prove it would be to make a statment of prediction. I.e. i'm going to profit form this 1000 PED i hunt on Atrax then proof of it. then show it over and over.

knowing how it works and cracking it are 2 seperate things though

I've got some good ideas but like you said it's really hard to test. The other factor is you never know IF MA is just messing with you too.

I swear there is someone in MA messing around with my loot because if you where to look back at it all it's just really funny. I've been playing with the same 20-150 PED for the last year. up and down up and down. does that mean i know how the loot system works? i would claim so.
 

Legion

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I think the only way to prove it would be to make a statment of prediction. I.e. i'm going to profit form this 1000 PED i hunt on Atrax then proof of it. then show it over and over.

knowing how it works and cracking it are 2 seperate things though

I've got some good ideas but like you said it's really hard to test. The other factor is you never know IF MA is just messing with you too.

I swear there is someone in MA messing around with my loot because if you where to look back at it all it's just really funny. I've been playing with the same 20-150 PED for the last year. up and down up and down. does that mean i know how the loot system works? i would claim so.

The thing is it's dynamic, and this dynamic makes testing the system extremely hard to test properly. IF you could freeze the time dynamic of the system and do a hunt over and over for example you would get the exact same result, ie killinig the same mobs and so on. This would be the only way to properly test the system to it's full extent. sadly we cant stop the timer :p
 

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It's made to be able to use it to your advantage..

Strongly disagreed. Unless you're talking about the hunting system, with different eco weapons and different markup loot from different mobs, as a whole.

To crack the looting system by itself, as in increasing average loot size or chance of global, you would have to rewrite the server code (or use whatever tools MA/FPC have to tweak loots in general for the entire playerbase).
 

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Strongly disagreed. Unless you're talking about the hunting system, with different eco weapons and different markup loot from different mobs, as a whole.

To crack the looting system by itself, as in increasing average loot size or chance of global, you would have to rewrite the server code (or use whatever tools MA/FPC have to tweak loots in general for the entire playerbase).

not talking about the lootvalues but where loot is.
 

elcid

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This is what works for me:
Ogulak'Da'Dragon - The loot System Explained!

P.S.: Sorry for not beeing constructive, but for me its simple: Sell all your stuff, get some ammo, bombs whatever you prefer, go get out hunting, mining, crafting whatever you prefer, and maybe, a big fat MAYBE, you will get something back ;) If not, go to Neas or deposit... Thats the way i play.
 

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The thing is it's dynamic, and this dynamic makes testing the system extremely hard to test properly. IF you could freeze the time dynamic of the system and do a hunt over and over for example you would get the exact same result,

not just the "system" time, what about your time, every other avatars inputs to the system, a mob time maybe, the direction of movment. you have to eradicate every single variable, any of which can have a substantial effect on outputs. in fact if coded properly with a little random salt, even in a test server environment you wouldnt be able to reproduce everything, for instance time since spawn, order of loot events, amount returned each event. the system is dynamic, constantly changing: it is entropic.
 

Legion

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not just the "system" time, what about your time, every other avatars inputs to the system, a mob time maybe, the direction of movment. you have to eradicate every single variable, any of which can have a substantial effect on outputs. in fact if coded properly with a little random salt, even in a test server environment you wouldnt be able to reproduce everything, for instance time since spawn, order of loot events, amount returned each event. the system is dynamic, constantly changing: it is entropic.

well true, if the system works that way, but i doubt it as that would be a one hell of a system to code. I belive the system is realy realy simple but it looks a lot more advanced than it is.

Loot is in the mob. Loot system cracked! God i wish i knew that earlier.
I never said the loot is in the mob. I belive the loot is "in" your client actually. or rather the probability to get certain loot. telling you where loot is at is another thing.
 

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well true, if the system works that way, but i doubt it as that would be a one hell of a system to code. I belive the system is realy realy simple but it looks a lot more advanced than it is.

but that is a simple system, from which the perception of complexity emerges. couple of hours coding basic engine probably.

and loot is server side, if it were client side it would a) be a massive security risk and b) we wouldnt get loot lag. is the loot "in" the mob at spawn? doubtful, again wouldnt get loot lag if it were carrying around a loot value.
 

kingjoe1974

Guardian
Joined
Oct 19, 2007
Posts
324
Location
S. Korea
Society
Eternal Knights of Destiny
Avatar Name
King Kingjoe Joe
Loot, this game has loot?
 
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